The Minnesota Vikings will finish the season with at least 12 wins, have arguably the finest receiver in the NFL and produced the largest comeback in NFL history last month.
At worst they will be the third seed in the NFC playoffs, and yet it is hard to think of a double-digit win team heading into the playoffs with so few outside the organisation believing they can contend to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
That will be of no concern to the Vikings, but their 2022 resume emphatically illustrates why they are not being taken seriously as potential Super Bowl champions.
Minnesota's season has been one defined by dramatic finishes in close games. Indeed, 11 of the wins the Vikings have claimed his season have been by a one-score margin, including their comeback from 36-0 down to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15.
Their sole double-digit win came in Week 1, when the Vikings eased to a 23-7 victory over the Green Bay Packers, a triumph cancelled out by their 41-17 defeat at Lambeau Field last week.
That loss left them with a point differential of minus 19. The current record for worst point differential in a season with at least 12 wins in NFL history is +21 by the 13-7 Frankford Yellow Jackets in 1925.
The 1925 championship was not decided by a playoff system -- only the most avid of NFL historians would know from memory that the Chicago Cardinals were awarded the title after the Pontsville Maroons were suspended from the league -- and there is a more recent comparison that reflects more kindly on the Vikings.
Minnesota's average margin of defeat this season stands at 22.3 points. That would be the largest average margin of defeat for an NFL team since the 1997 San Francisco 49ers (23.7).
San Francisco went 13-3 that season, which the 49ers finished as the NFC's top seed, and progressed to the NFC Championship Game, where they lost to the Green Bay Packers.
Whether the Vikings have what it takes to imitate them and go deep into the playoffs despite the heavy defeats that have served to increase concerns about their viability as contenders remains open for debate.
It is a debate that is unlikely to be settled by their Week 18 regular-season finale with the three-win Chicago Bears, but they do have points in their favour, the most notable of which is a cast of pass-catching weapons that ranks 11th in the NFL in win rate against pass coverage.
Justin Jefferson, who is ninth in the NFL in combined open percentage (49.3) against man and zone coverage (min. 100 matchups), is the headline act. Having a receiver who can get open as frequently as he does is an obvious asset for a playoff team, one which has thrived in large part because of his 27 receptions of 20 yards or more.
He is supported by a true number one tight end in T.J. Hockenson and another excellent route-runner in veteran Adam Thielen.
While the Vikings have a cast of weapons that is the envy of many in the NFL, they also have a defensive front that boasts the pass-rush talent to limit opposing aerial attacks.
Minnesota's defense is sixth in the NFL in pass rush win rate, yet the Vikings' success in that regard has not resulted in defensive solidity. To the contrary, their 33 sacks for negative yardage are tied for 20th in the league and their success rate against the pass of 45.5 per cent is the fourth worst in the NFL.
And, even with the substantial merits of Jefferson and Co, there is reason to worry whether the Vikings can keep up with top-end playoff competition if they cannot stop their opponents.
The Vikings' pass protection took a hit with the loss of right tackle Brian O'Neill to an Achilles injury and at center they are down to third-stringer Chris Reed.
If those injuries prevent Minnesota from adequately protecting Kirk Cousins, then it is unlikely to bode well for the playoff fortunes of a quarterback who has struggled when the defense knows he is passing.
Cousins has averaged minus 0.02 yards over expected in expected passing situations, according to Stats Perform data, which is 16th among quarterbacks with at least 100 such attempts.
In other words, in clear passing situations, Cousins is failing to elevate those around them, and he is getting little support from a run game that many expected to perform at a much higher level than it has displayed this season.
The Vikings' run success rate of 34.6 per cent is comfortably below the average of 37.5, with an O-Line that ranks 23rd in run block win rate struggling to open holes for Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattinson.
There is no doubting Minnesota's talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball, yet the questions that have surrounded Cousins throughout his career persist and there are enough holes elsewhere on the roster to justify the doubts about their prospects as contenders. Football is not played on spreadsheets, but the numbers from an extremely curious campaign will be tough to dispute until the Vikings give the NFL world reason to.
'Super simple' – Lille president rules out January exit for Jonathan David
Lille president Olivier Letang has categorically ruled out a January exit for forward Jonathan David amid links with a number of European clubs.
David is out of contract at the end of the season and has been touted as a target for the likes of Bayern Munich, Juventus and Barcelona.
Speaking this week, the Canada international named Barcelona as his "dream" club but suggested he would prefer not to leave Lille mid-season.
And in an interview with After Foot RMC, Letang confirmed no bids have yet been tabled ahead of the January window.
"We are not going to sell him in January, and we have not received any offer for him," he said.
"Jonathan's situation is super simple. We are very happy to have him with us.
"Last season he had one more year left on his contract. We were trying to qualify for the Champions League.
"You have a guy who scores 20 to 25 goals a season. We had no obligation to sell him."
David is into his fifth season with Lille and has scored 97 goals in 202 games for the Ligue 1 side in all competitions while assisting a further 18.
Seven of those goals have arrived in 11 appearances this term, including in Champions League games against Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Juventus.
The 24-year-old's best league season with Lille saw him score 24 goals in 2022-23, while he has netted 19, 15 and 13 in the other full campaigns.
Lille chief Letang reiterated that David has been offered a new deal to stay on at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, but selling him has never been an option.
"He is a player who scores between 20 and 25 goals and helps us qualify for the Champions League," he said.
"Plus, Jonathan loves Lille, which is his club. Our position was very clear from the beginning – we think of the athlete.
"Obviously, he already has an offer that is in his hands, the ball is in his court."
Browns score late touchdown to end Steelers' streak in snowy contest
Nick Chubb ran for a 2-yard touchdown in heavy snow with 57 seconds left, and the Cleveland Browns stunned division rival Pittsburgh 24-19 on Thursday night, ending the Steelers' five-game winning streak.
Chubb's score came in his first game against the AFC North-leading Steelers (8-3) since the running back sustained a season-ending left knee injury on a carry last year at Pittsburgh.
The Browns (3-8) had blown a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter and were down 19-18 before getting the ball back with 3:22 remaining after Pittsburgh punter Corliss Waitman shanked a 16-yarder.
With snow piling up and covering the yard lines on the field, Cleveland's Jameis Winston completed a third-down pass to Jerry Jeudy to the Pittsburgh 9. Two plays later, Chubb barrelled into the end zone.
The Steelers had one last chance, but quarterback Russell Wilson's Hail Mary on the final play was knocked down by Browns safety Grant Delpit in the end zone, touching off a wild celebration at Huntington Bank Field.
McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United
Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.
United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.
While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.
That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.
McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.
"Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.
"It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."
Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.
Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off.
"I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea.
"You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that.
"We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Ipswich Town - Liam Delap
Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.
That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).
Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho
Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).
The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).
MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN
Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.
The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.
United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.
The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.
However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Ipswich Town - 22.2%
Draw - 23%
Manchester United - 54.8%
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