NFL

Bills can dampen Dolphins playoff hopes as Vikings aiming to improve record vs Colts

By Sports Desk December 16, 2022

The business end of the NFL season is here as the playoff picture starts to emerge.

You can tell things are getting interesting as this weekend sees three Saturday games, meaning football fans can stretch out their weekend viewing even further.

Saturday sees the Minnesota Vikings host the Indianapolis Colts, the Baltimore Ravens visit the Cleveland Browns and the Buffalo Bills taking on the Miami Dolphins.

Sunday's action includes a clash in the NFC South where no team seems to want to finish first, but the winner of the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints will leave themselves with an inexplicable chance to do so.

Stats Perform has taken a look at the numbers behind a selection of Week 15's games.

Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (10-3)

While the Vikings have been having a far better season than the Colts, they are just 7-18-1 all-time in the series between the two (including playoffs). It is the Vikings' worst record against any single opponent.

Indianapolis entered their bye week with a 54-19 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, in which they were outscored by 33 points in the fourth quarter (33-0), the largest point differential in a single fourth quarter in NFL history.

Matt Ryan needs 125 passing yards to reach 3,000 for the 13th consecutive season, which would make him the eighth QB in NFL history to accomplish the feat, joining Philip Rivers as the only two to do so without a Super Bowl victory.

Justin Jefferson set a franchise record with 223 receiving yards on 11 catches against the Detroit Lions. Jefferson is up to 4,516 career receiving yards, the most of anyone in NFL history in a player's first three seasons (next most being Randy Moss with 4,163).

Miami Dolphins (8-5) @ Buffalo Bills (10-3)

The Bills have a five-game winning streak at home against the Dolphins, tied for their longest of all-time. This is just one game shy of matching Buffalo's longest home win streak against a divisional opponent (twice against the Colts and once against the New England Patriots).

The Dolphins lost 23-17 to the Chargers last week, posting a season-low 127 passing yards. Miami's 10 completions in the game were their fewest since Week 13 of 2015 (nine).

Tyreek Hill had a 57-yard fumble return touchdown and 60-yard receiving touchdown last week, and leads the NFL with four plays of 50 or more yards this season. Hill had four total plays of 50 or more yards in his last three seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Sean McDermott is 9-2 (.818) in his career as a head coach against the Dolphins, the best record by any head coach with at least eight games against Miami all-time. Only two coaches have 10 or more career wins against Miami (Bill Belichick, 26, and Marv Levy, 15).

Atlanta Falcons (5-8) @ New Orleans Saints (4-9)

The Falcons' three-point loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in their last game was Atlanta's 10th game this season decided by six points or fewer, tied for the most in franchise history (also in 1995, 2015 and 2017).

Cordarrelle Patterson is one of three players in NFL history to average 5.0+ yards per rush and 9.0+ yards per reception over his career (minimum 400 rushes and 200 receptions), along with Jim Brown and Bobby Mitchell.

The Saints have held their opponent to fewer than 300 net passing yards in 22 consecutive games, tied with the Bengals for the second-longest active streak in the NFL (after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with 27).

Chris Olave has had at least 40 receiving yards in all 12 games of his career thus far, the second-longest streak by any NFL player to begin his career in the Super Bowl era behind fellow Saints player Michael Thomas (19).

Elsewhere...

Panthers QB Sam Darnold has won both of his starts this season and has not thrown a pick in either. He has now won seven straight starts dating back to 2020 in games where he has not thrown an interception, tied for the third-longest active streak among QBs (Jimmy Garoppolo 16, Jalen Hurts 13, Joe Burrow 7), and will look to extend it against the Steelers.

The Dallas Cowboys will have to find a way to stop Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence. Since November 1, Lawrence has the highest completion percentage in the NFL among players with at least 100 attempts (71.8). On the season, the Jaguars are 5-2 when he completes at least 70.0 per cent of his passes compared to 0-6 when he does not.

The Las Vegas Raiders will look to bounce back against the New England Patriots after blowing a 13-point lead with fewer than four minutes remaining in their 17-16 loss to the Los Angeles Rams last week. Over the last 40 seasons, the only other time the team had lost a game it led by 13+ points with four minutes or less remaining was in Week 3 of the 1993 season to the Cleveland Browns. 

Tom Brady was 34-for-55 for 253 yards last week, the 11th time in his career he has attempted at least 55 passes. His teams are now 3-8 in such games, with wins in 2002 against Chicago, 2015 against Buffalo, and Week 9 of this season against the Rams. The Buccaneers (6-7) will hope he can guide them to a much-needed W against the Bengals.

Related items

  • Browns score late touchdown to end Steelers' streak in snowy contest Browns score late touchdown to end Steelers' streak in snowy contest

    Nick Chubb ran for a 2-yard touchdown in heavy snow with 57 seconds left, and the Cleveland Browns stunned division rival Pittsburgh 24-19 on Thursday night, ending the Steelers' five-game winning streak.

    Chubb's score came in his first game against the AFC North-leading Steelers (8-3) since the running back sustained a season-ending left knee injury on a carry last year at Pittsburgh.

    The Browns (3-8) had blown a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter and were down 19-18 before getting the ball back with 3:22 remaining after Pittsburgh punter Corliss Waitman shanked a 16-yarder.

    With snow piling up and covering the yard lines on the field, Cleveland's Jameis Winston completed a third-down pass to Jerry Jeudy to the Pittsburgh 9. Two plays later, Chubb barrelled into the end zone.

    The Steelers had one last chance, but quarterback Russell Wilson's Hail Mary on the final play was knocked down by Browns safety Grant Delpit in the end zone, touching off a wild celebration at Huntington Bank Field.

  • McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United

    Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.

    United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.

    While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.

    That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.

    McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.

    "Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.

    "It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."

    Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.

    Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off. 

    "I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea. 
     
    "You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that. 
     
    "We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Ipswich Town - Liam Delap

    Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.

    That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).

    Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho

    Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).

    The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).

    MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN

    Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.

    The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.

    United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.

    The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.

    However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Ipswich Town - 22.2%

    Draw - 23%

    Manchester United - 54.8%

  • Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills

    Arne Slot deserves praise for not being "arrogant" with his approach to succeeding Jurgen Klopp as Liverpool boss, according to Danny Mills.

    The Dutchman has made a hugely positive start to life at Anfield since replacing long-serving Klopp ahead of the 2024-25 season.

    The 28 points Slot has collected is the joint-most of any manager in their opening 11 Premier League games along with Guus Hiddink at Chelsea.

    Liverpool's only blemish on an otherwise perfect start to the top-flight campaign was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September.

    Indeed, only in 2019-20 (31 points) have Liverpool collected more points after 11 games of a Premier League season than their 28 this campaign.

    Former Leeds United and Manchester City defender Mills has been particularly impressed by Slot's approach to a new era at Anfield.

    "Arne Slot has surprised me," Mills told Stats Perform. "They did have a difficult defeat against Nottingham Forest at home. That was a defeat not many people saw that coming, but the start he's had is unbelievable. It's incredible.

    "Training might be slightly different, but the style of play is very similar. The players are comfortable with it. They've been high-energy, closing people down, and playing at 100 miles an hour when they win the ball back.

    "It shows managerial intelligence to understand the players' qualities and build on what they had when they were successful. He hasn't overthought it or tinkered too much. 

    "He hasn’t been arrogant and said, 'I'm going to rip it up and start fresh'. It wasn't broken; it was already successful. He's just added to it."

    Liverpool won a first ever Premier League title during Klopp's eight-and-a-half years in charge, as well the Champions League in 2018-19.

    Klopp also lifted the FA Cup, two EFL Cups, the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup, setting a high benchmark to follow.

    "Liverpool identified the man they wanted, brought him in, and he's been very clever," Mills added. "He looked at the squad and thought, 'these are good players. I don't need to change too much'. 

    "That's smart because Liverpool were very successful under Klopp. If you come in and rip up the playbook and it doesn't work, players will question why they're not doing what worked under Klopp."

    Liverpool have conceded just six goals in the Premier League this season – four fewer than next-best Nottingham Forest.

    They are conceding at a rate of around 0.5 goals per game, compared to around 1.1 in Klopp's final season in charge (41 goals in 38 matches).

    "Slot has tweaked things slightly, maybe made them more defensively solid, which they needed to really challenge," Mills said. "Championship-winning or Champions League-winning teams are built on solid defences. 

    "You don't win without that. He's shored up the defence and allowed the players to continue doing what they were doing before."

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