NFL

NFL Fantasy Picks: Trevor Lawrence leads list of Week 13 sure things

By Sports Desk November 30, 2022

The schedule in Week 13 of the NFL season is undoubtedly one of the best of the campaign so far.

It features a host of compelling games between teams likely to be in the mix to go deep into the playoffs at the end of the year.

That also makes it one of the toughest weeks to predict, but there are several players in action who look to be locks for strong fantasy football performances.

Here Stats Perform dives into the data to pick out four offensive players and a defense in line to come up big this week.

Quarterback: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

Lawrence looks to have officially arrived after leading a sensational comeback against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11.

Since Week 9, Lawrence leads the NFL with a completion percentage of 76.9 and this week faces a Lions defense allowing 7.15 yards per pass play, the third-most in the league. Need we say more?

Running Back: Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

With Aaron Rodgers banged up, though still seemingly likely to play, the Packers have all the more reason to lean on the run game in Chicago.

Jones is the Packers' best offensive weapon, with his 198 touches the 11th-most in the NFL, with 43 coming as a receiver. Going against a Bears defense shorn of its top talent and allowing the fourth-most yards per play in the league (5.92), Jones is a near-lock for fantasy success.

Wide Receiver: Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Chase is finally set to return from a hip injury in this rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game, and all the signs point to a high-scoring game.

The two meetings they had in the previous campaign in the regular season and the postseason produced a combined 116 points, and the Bengals' offense is firing on all cylinders once again.

Since Week 6, the Bengals are averaging 293.3 net passing yards per game, trailing only the Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins. Given the rapport Chase enjoys with quarterback Joe Burrow, he figures to play an integral role in another explosive display in this matchup between AFC heavyweights.

Tight End: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins

Kittle may not be the primary weapon in the 49er passing game these days, but this week is one in which he looks primed to have a big say in a fascinating encounter between Super Bowl contenders. 

With Elijah Mitchell out with a sprained MCL and Christian McCaffrey dealing with knee irritation, San Francisco may have lean more on the pass game than the rushing attack. 

That should not be a problem for an offense that is third in pass yards per play (7.08) and the Niners should find joy targeting Kittle against a defense that has had difficulties containing tight ends. Kittle has four touchdowns in his last five games and that tally appears likely to increase in a battle between two efficient offenses.

Defense/Special Teams: Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans

All the attention around this matchup surrounds Deshaun Watson's controversial debut against his former team, but a much-maligned defense might be able to decide this game on its own.

The Browns are extremely vulnerable to the run, but limited Tom Brady and the Buccaneers to 17 points last week in a hugely impressive overtime win. The Texans' offense is averaging the fourth-fewest yards per play in the league and has allowed the fifth-most sacks for negative yardage (33). This matchup is an enticing one for Myles Garrett and Co. and fantasy owners in need of defensive help shouldn't hesitate to rely on what has been a largely unreliable unit in 2022.

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    Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.

    United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.

    While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.

    That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.

    McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.

    "Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.

    "It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."

    Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.

    Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off. 

    "I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea. 
     
    "You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that. 
     
    "We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Ipswich Town - Liam Delap

    Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.

    That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).

    Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho

    Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).

    The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).

    MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN

    Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.

    The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.

    United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.

    The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.

    However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Ipswich Town - 22.2%

    Draw - 23%

    Manchester United - 54.8%

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    Arne Slot deserves praise for not being "arrogant" with his approach to succeeding Jurgen Klopp as Liverpool boss, according to Danny Mills.

    The Dutchman has made a hugely positive start to life at Anfield since replacing long-serving Klopp ahead of the 2024-25 season.

    The 28 points Slot has collected is the joint-most of any manager in their opening 11 Premier League games along with Guus Hiddink at Chelsea.

    Liverpool's only blemish on an otherwise perfect start to the top-flight campaign was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September.

    Indeed, only in 2019-20 (31 points) have Liverpool collected more points after 11 games of a Premier League season than their 28 this campaign.

    Former Leeds United and Manchester City defender Mills has been particularly impressed by Slot's approach to a new era at Anfield.

    "Arne Slot has surprised me," Mills told Stats Perform. "They did have a difficult defeat against Nottingham Forest at home. That was a defeat not many people saw that coming, but the start he's had is unbelievable. It's incredible.

    "Training might be slightly different, but the style of play is very similar. The players are comfortable with it. They've been high-energy, closing people down, and playing at 100 miles an hour when they win the ball back.

    "It shows managerial intelligence to understand the players' qualities and build on what they had when they were successful. He hasn't overthought it or tinkered too much. 

    "He hasn’t been arrogant and said, 'I'm going to rip it up and start fresh'. It wasn't broken; it was already successful. He's just added to it."

    Liverpool won a first ever Premier League title during Klopp's eight-and-a-half years in charge, as well the Champions League in 2018-19.

    Klopp also lifted the FA Cup, two EFL Cups, the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup, setting a high benchmark to follow.

    "Liverpool identified the man they wanted, brought him in, and he's been very clever," Mills added. "He looked at the squad and thought, 'these are good players. I don't need to change too much'. 

    "That's smart because Liverpool were very successful under Klopp. If you come in and rip up the playbook and it doesn't work, players will question why they're not doing what worked under Klopp."

    Liverpool have conceded just six goals in the Premier League this season – four fewer than next-best Nottingham Forest.

    They are conceding at a rate of around 0.5 goals per game, compared to around 1.1 in Klopp's final season in charge (41 goals in 38 matches).

    "Slot has tweaked things slightly, maybe made them more defensively solid, which they needed to really challenge," Mills said. "Championship-winning or Champions League-winning teams are built on solid defences. 

    "You don't win without that. He's shored up the defence and allowed the players to continue doing what they were doing before."

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    The Spain international was a top target for Hansi Flick's side after playing a starring role during La Roja's Euro 2024 triumph.

    Williams netted a fine solo goal in the 4-1 win over Georgia in the round of 16, becoming the first player on record at the Euros (since 1980) to score, assist and complete 100% of his passes (46 from 46) in a game he started.

    The Athletic Bilbao forward was then named Player of the Match after finding the net in Spain's 2-1 victory over England in the final.

    Williams was expected to reunite with international team-mate Lamine Yamal at Camp Nou.

    It was reported he chose to remain with Bilbao after Barca were unable to guarantee his registration with LaLiga due to complying with the salary cap, but Masip - advisor to Laporta - has refuted those claims.

    "If a player who is of your interest doesn't want to move, you don't have much leeway," he told El Chiringuito. "There was not much you could do.

    "It's hard for me to think that if you were going to sign Nico Williams, you wouldn't be able to register him. 

    "Barca weren't going to pay €50 million or €60 million for a player if they weren't going to be able to register him. So, well, it surely would have been done."

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