NFL

NFL Fantasy Picks: Justin Fields and the players who have earned the right to be taken seriously

By Sports Desk November 09, 2022

Every year, a host of NFL players and teams head into seasons looking to prove themselves.

Some fall short, but others rise to the occasion spectacularly.

It is the latter Stats Perform has focused on for this week's edition of fantasy picks, with every selection except for that at tight end for Week 10 looking at players and areas of certain teams that have emphatically answered the bell.

These offensive players and our selection in the defense slot deserve to be taken seriously, and they deserve a place in your fantasy team if you have them rostered or they are somehow available on the waiver wire.

Quarterback – Justin Fields, Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

After following up impressive games against the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys with a spectacular performance in defeat to the Miami Dolphins last week, it’s time to accept Fields is a starter-level quarterback in fantasy football.

Against Miami, Fields threw for three touchdowns and rushed for another score while adding 178 yards on the ground, that tally the most by a quarterback in a regular-season game since 1940.

The Lions may have only conceded nine points against the Green Bay Packers last week, but they still surrendered 389 net yards, with theirs a defense allowing a league-high 6.39 yards per play. Facing an opponent ill-equipped to stop him on the ground or through the air, Fields will reaffirm his legitimacy as a fantasy quarterback and one of the NFL’s most promising young signal-callers at Ford Field.

Running Back – Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs

Etienne, effectively playing his rookie year having seen his 2021 season lost to injury, is now the undisputed focal point of the Jacksonville run game following the Jaguars' decision to trade James Robinson to the New York Jets.

It is a role in which Etienne has thrived, racking up 100 yards in each of his last three games, across which he has scored four touchdowns.

This week, he faces a Chiefs run defense that has allowed a success rate of 41.5 per cent, the fourth-worst in the NFL.

Jacksonville may eventually be forced to move away from the run game if they fall behind against the Chiefs as most expect, but the numbers suggest Etienne will put up good enough numbers to be worthy of a fantasy start regardless.

Wide Receiver – Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns

There was plenty of doubt surrounding a Dolphin offense helmed by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa going into the season. Those concerns have been emphatically allayed, however, with the Miami attack second in the NFL in yards per play through nine weeks of the season.

Waddle and Tyreek Hill have been the primary beneficiaries of the beautiful marriage between Tagovailoa and Dolphins head coach and offensive play-caller Mike McDaniel.

Hill has already surpassed 1,000 yards receiving, and Waddle is rapidly closing in on four figures. He heads into the Dolphins' meeting with the Browns on 812.

Cleveland's defense has been solid against the pass but has allowed 12 big play touchdowns, tied for the third-most in the NFL, with eight of those coming through the air. The Browns are therefore still a defense Waddle and Hill can exploit, with the former joining his three-time first-team All-Pro team-mate as one of the most dynamic deep threats in the NFL.

Tight End – Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans

There has been little reason to take the Bronco offense seriously so far this season, but Dulcich's emergence in recent weeks has provided something for Denver to be optimistic about.

He has 12 receptions in his three games so far as a rookie, averaging 15.2 yards per reception and swiftly earning the trust of Russell Wilson 

With 14 targets over the last two games, Dulcich already looks to be an established part of the passing attack, and that is likely to remain the case against a Titans defense in the bottom half of the league in success rate against the pass (41.7 per cent). Dulcich is an intriguing fantasy play this week at a position where it is famously difficult to find consistent contributors outside of the league’s elite.

Defense/Special Teams – Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers

The Cowboys' high dependence on turnovers last season made their defense a tough one to trust going into the campaign.

However, it has remained one of the best in the NFL and is fourth in the league by success rate (36.1 per cent). Only two defenses have forced more negative plays than Dallas (62), and this week the Cowboys get to face a Packers team in the midst of a five-game losing streak.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has grown increasingly careless with the ball as their woes have continued, and with the Packers dealing with injuries on the offensive line, this is a matchup that looks ripe for Micah Parsons and Co. to dominate and deliver substantial fantasy points.

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    The Championship returns from the international break with, much like the Premier League, a three-horse tussle at the top.

    Leicester City, having led the standings for the majority of the campaign, now find themselves in second place behind Leeds United, albeit with a game in hand on the in-form Whites.

    The Foxes are grappling with off-pitch issues, and a return to form when they face Bristol City on Friday would go far to restoring some momentum.

    Leeds, on the other hand, have won 12 of their last 13 Championship fixtures, dropping points just once in that run.

    As for third-placed Ipswich Town, they are hot on the heels of their automatic-promotion rivals.

    All of these sides have built their fine campaigns on some brilliant attacking play, scoring 224 goals between them. Using Opta data, we can look at just how these attacks stack up.

     

    Ipswich Town

    Of these three teams, Ipswich have scored the most goals, with Kieran McKenna's side netting 80 across their 38 matches - an average of 2.1 per game. That makes the Tractor Boys the leading scorers in the league, while they are also the leading team for non-penalty goals (78).

    Ipswich have, however, greatly outperformed their expected goals (xG) of 64.2, while also greatly exceeding their non-penalty xG (61.8). When it comes to those metrics, they rank fourth and second in the second tier respectively. Their expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 69.5 shows their finishing has been above the standard of what would be anticipated from the quality of chances, and they rank third in the league in this aspect.

    Unsurprisingly, Ipswich lead the way for shots (590), while they rank second for shots on target (214). They are fourth in the Championship for shot conversion rate (13.5 per cent), big chances (94) and big chances scored (42). Their big-chance conversion rate, of 44.68, stands as the sixth best in the competition.

    But how do Ipswich create their chances? Well, they aren't afraid to send crosses into the area, with their 114 successful open-play crosses ranking second. However, it's Ipswich's high press that really stands out.

    They have forced 309 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 yards of the opponent's goal), at an average of 8.1 per match. They lead the league for shot-ending high turnovers, with 65, albeit they are tied for fifth when it comes to scoring goals from such scenarios (seven). McKenna's team are certainly able to go direct, too, given they rank down at 10th for sequences of 10+ passes. 

     

    Don't bet against Ipswich if they go behind, meanwhile. They have gained 28 points from a losing position, topping the Championship.

    And when they get the lead, Ipswich typically hold onto it, with only two teams dropping fewer points from a winning position.

    Leicester City

    Ranking behind Ipswich for goals scored are Leicester, with 74 to their name. The Foxes are also second in the Championship for xG (68) and for xGOT (73.5).

    It is worth noting that Leicester have been more reliant on penalties, having scored 12 goals from the spot. 

    Leicester have mustered the fifth-highest tally of shots (525), while their 189 shots on target ranks fourth in the division.

    But in which metrics do Leicester top the Championship? Enzo Maresca's team lead the way for shot conversion (14.1 per cent), big chances (111) and big chances scored (50).

    Leicester are hardly a pressing machine off the ball, having averaged just 7.4 high turnovers per game, but what the Foxes lack in quantity they make up for in quality – they have scored a joint league-leading eight goals from those situations.

    Maresca's men do not particularly look to cross at a high volume, though when they do put deliveries in, they are often on point. Leicester are 19th out of 24 teams for total open-play crosses, yet they rank third for successful open-play deliveries.

    If teams go ahead against Leicester, however, then the Foxes are not the best at coming from behind, having gained only 10 points from such positions this term.

    Leeds United

    So, what about Leeds, the league leaders heading into the Easter weekend?

    Leeds have accumulated more xG than any other Championship team, at 68.4, while 62.9 of that total has come from non-penalty shots. However, they rank down in fourth for both goals (70) and non-penalty goals (65). Interestingly, the Whites' xGOT is 69.2, so they have been finishing slightly above what would be expected from chances they have crafted.

     

    Daniel Farke's team are the Championship leaders for high turnovers, with 319, while their average of 11 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which measures how often a team presses their opponent, is the second highest in the competition.

    Leeds have been exceptionally effective from this high press, too. They have had the third-highest shots (61) and, along with Leicester, lead the Championship for goal-ending high turnovers, with eight.

    The Whites may only have got 201 of their 586 shots on target, with an 11.9 per cent shot conversion rate, but they are excellent at creating quality chances, ranking second for big chances (102), which are defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score.

    Should Leeds take a lead, then they are excellent at holding onto it. They have dropped the fewest points (four) of any Championship team from winning positions, while they rank second for points gained from losing positions (21).

    Unlike Leicester or Ipswich, there is no focus at all on crossing, or quality crossing, from Leeds. Farke's side actually rank 23rd for both open-play crosses and successful open-play deliveries. Perhaps forcing them wide will be the only way their opponents can keep them out in the run-in?

  • Denis Compton to Victoria Pendleton – Louis Rees-Zammit joins multi-sport stars Denis Compton to Victoria Pendleton – Louis Rees-Zammit joins multi-sport stars

    Former Wales and British and Irish Lions wing Louis Rees-Zammit is reportedly set to join reigning Super Bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs.

    The 23-year-old stunned the world of rugby in January by quitting the sport in an attempt to secure a contract with an NFL team in 2024, and his dream could soon come true.

    Here, the PA news agency looks at some other multi-talented sports stars.

    Denis Compton (cricket and football)

    Compton played 75 Test matches for England, making his debut in 1937 aged 19 and scoring his first century the following year against Don Bradman’s touring Australian side.

    He had made his Arsenal debut in 1936 and went on to win the league title in 1948 and FA Cup in 1950 with the Gunners, the same year in which he helped Middlesex win the County Championship.

    Babe Didrikson Zaharias (athletics, golf)

    Zaharias also excelled at basketball and baseball, but initially made her name in track and field, winning two gold medals and one silver in the 1932 Olympics in Los Angeles.

    Zaharias won the javelin comfortably, took the 80 metres hurdles in a world-record time and finished equal first in the high jump before losing the title when her technique was deemed illegal.

    A latecomer to golf, she won more than 50 titles, including the US Women’s Open three times, and co-founded the LPGA.

    Lottie Dod (tennis, golf, archery)

    Lottie Dod remains Wimbledon’s youngest women’s singles champion, winning the first of her five titles at just 15 years and 285 days old in 1887.

    Later turning her attention to golf, she won the 1904 British Ladies Amateur title and four years later won a silver medal in archery at the Olympic Games in London, where her brother Willy claimed gold in the men’s event.

    Jim Thorpe (athletics, American football, baseball, basketball)

    The first Native American to win gold for the United States in the Olympics, Thorpe won both the pentathlon and decathlon in Stockholm in 1912.

    He lost his titles after it emerged he had previously been paid for playing semi-professional baseball, but they were eventually reinstated by the International Olympic Committee.

    Thorpe played six seasons in Major League Baseball and for six NFL teams, as well as enjoying a less-well documented spell in professional basketball.

    Victoria Pendleton (cycling and horse racing)

    Two-time Olympic champion track cyclist Victoria Pendleton announced in March 2015 that she had set her sights on riding in the following year’s Cheltenham Festival.

    She made her competitive debut in August 2015 and won her first race, on March 2, 2016, on 5-4 favourite Pacha Du Polder at Wincanton.

    Pendleton then achieved her stated aim of riding in the Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham and finished fifth, describing the result as “probably the greatest achievement of my life”.

  • Louis Rees-Zammit reportedly signs for Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs Louis Rees-Zammit reportedly signs for Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs

    Former Wales rugby star Louis Rees-Zammit has signed for Super Bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs, according to a report in the United States.

    Rees-Zammit is set to join the Chiefs’ practice squad, having impressed during his time on the NFL’s international player pathway.

    The 23-year-old’s signing is expected to be confirmed on Friday, with running back and wide receiver his designated positions.

    The move comes after he visited several NFL franchises, including the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos.

    Rees-Zammit’s next goal is to win a place on the Chiefs’ final roster for the new season, joining their star players Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in targeting a third-successive Super Bowl.

    The Gloucester, Wales and Lions wing stunned the world of rugby in January by quitting the sport in an attempt to secure a contract with an NFL team in 2024.

    That dream moved a step closer when he impressed during last week’s pro day that forms part of the international player pathway.

    Rees-Zammit clocked 4.43 seconds in his 40-yard dash, a 9ft 7in broad jump and 29-inch vertical jump.

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