The Green Bay Packers have been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL under the leadership of Matt LaFleur.
As a head coach, LaFleur has compiled a 42-11 regular-season record, winning three NFC North titles and guiding the Packers to the NFC Championship Game in two of his three campaigns in charges.
Yet the failure that has contributed to their inability to get to the Super Bowl during LaFleur's tenure has also been consistent.
In the NFC Championship Game at the end of the 2019 season, the Packers were gashed on the ground by Raheem Mostert and the San Francisco 49ers in a 37-20 blowout.
Mostert racked up 220 rushing yards and four touchdowns in a remarkable display, and a year later as the Packers hosted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lambeau Field at the same stage, they suffered a similar if less statistically dramatic downfall.
Leonard Fournette only had 55 yards rushing in the Buccaneers' 31-26 win, but he had a 20-yard score in the second quarter that gave Tampa Bay a lead they never relinquished, and he averaged four yards after contact, again illustrating the Packers' struggles to stop the run.
The offense and special teams were more at fault last season as the 49ers beat the Packers at Lambeau in the Divisional Round, but a nine-yard run from Deebo Samuel gave the Niners a key third-down conversion on their game-winning drive.
When the Packers have needed to stop the run in critical games, they have come up short, and the signs of that problem being fixed in 2022 are not good.
The Packers are allowing at least four yards on 57.8 per cent of carries by their opponents, the highest rate in the NFL, and giving up 4.91 yards per rush on first down. Green Bay's rush average allowed of 4.97 yards per carry is the 11th-worst in the NFL.
Three of the Packers' first four games have seen them surrender over 100 yards rushing, conceding 167 in allowing a poor New England Patriots team to take them to overtime.
Green Bay's issue is not getting into the backfield, as the Packers rank eighth in run disruption rate, according to Stats Perform data.
So why are the Packers still having issues stopping the run? The short answer is tackling.
Their tackle success rate of 73.6 per cent is tied for the fifth-worst in the NFL, with their problems coming chiefly on the left side of their defense. Left inside linebacker De'Vondre Campbell has missed four tackles and seen a further two broken, while edge rusher Preston Smith – listed as the starting outside backer on the left side – has also had a pair of tackles broken.
It is certainly not fair to pin all the Packers' run defense struggles on Campbell, but it is clear they are not doing enough as a collective to bring ball-carriers down if they evade the disruption Green Bay creates in the backfield.
This week the Packers face the New York Giants in London and meet a running back in Saquon Barkley who is doing an excellent job of racking up yardage on plays where the defense generates a run disruption.
Indeed, Barkley, the NFL's rushing leader through four weeks, is averaging 3.54 yards per carry when faced with a run disruption, above the average of 3.02.
However, his yards after contact per attempt average of 1.96 yards is below the average of 2.01. So while he might be able to evade defenders who get behind the line of scrimmage, tackle-breaking runs from the 2018 second overall pick should be at a premium.
In that sense, he is something of a test case for the Packers. Green Bay has poured plenty of resources into the problems stopping the run but, if Barkley enjoys significant success fighting through contact at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, it could be a sign that run defense and, more specifically, tackling is an issue that could doom a Super Bowl-ready team once more and require more targeted attention next offseason.
Wolves v Arsenal: ‘What we still have to play for is beautiful’ – Arteta
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta set out to remind his team that they still have something “beautiful” to play for despite their Champions League exit.
The Gunners slipped out of UEFA’s flagship club competition in midweek when they went down 1-0 to Bayern Munich, losing 3-2 on aggregate.
That defeat followed on from a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa last Sunday – a reverse that significantly dented Arsenal’s title hopes, with the Gunners now two points behind Manchester City who, after this weekend, will have a game in hand.
Arsenal face Wolves on Saturday and, with City in FA Cup action, a win would see them move back to the top of the table, at least temporarily, so Arteta offered a reminder that all is not lost.
“I can guarantee you we are fully focused on Wolves and everybody's lifted,” he said following the loss in Munich.
“What we still have to play is beautiful and I said before, it's time to be next to our players and in this moment, not when you win 10 in a row and a draw, that's easy to prize our players and to be behind them and to say really nice things. The moment is now to be next to them.”
On Friday, in his pre-match press conference, Arteta added: “As an experience, [the Champions League was] the best one.
“I am now fully focused on the times ahead of us. We are now behind Manchester City and will give it a good go. The context is clear. If we win we are top of the league.”
Wolves sit 11th, though they could do with snapping a four-game winless streak in order to get their European hopes back on track.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Wolves – Matheus Cunha
Cunha has been involved in nine goals in his last nine Premier League games, scoring six and assisting three. His 11 goals overall this season is the fourth most by a Wolves player in a single Premier League campaign after Raul Jimenez (17 in 2019-20, 13 in 2018-19) and Steven Fletcher (12 in 2011-12).
Arsenal – Bukayo Saka
Saka has been involved in eight goals in his last seven Premier League away games, scoring seven and assisting one. His 13 away goal involvements overall this term (eight goals, five assists) is the most by an Arsenal player in a single Premier League campaign since Alexis Sanchez’s 20 in 2016-17.
MATCH PREDICTION: ARSENAL WIN
Arsenal lost a Premier League game for the first time in 2024 against Villa last time out. Since the start of last season, only twice have the Gunners suffered consecutive league defeats, doing so in May 2023 (v Brighton and Nottingham Forest) and December this season (v West Ham and Fulham).
Wolves are winless in their last four Premier League games (D2 L2), though they have won their last two at Molineux against sides starting the day in the top two of the table, beating Man City 2-1 in September and Spurs by the same score in November.
Arsenal have scored in their last 32 meetings with Wolves in all competitions.
Wolves have now lost each of their last five against the Gunners, failing to score in both home defeats in that run.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Wolves – 21.5%
Arsenal – 51.2%
Draw – 27.3%
Fulham v Liverpool: Klopp unconcerned by Salah's scoring form
Jurgen Klopp is not overly worried by Mohamed Salah’s slight dip in form, as the Liverpool manager turned full focus to the Reds’ Premier League title challenge.
A bad week for Liverpool was capped off on Thursday when, despite a 1-0 win over Atalanta, they slumped out of the Europa League 3-1 on aggregate following a heavy defeat at Anfield in the first leg.
That loss on April 11 came three days before a 1-0 home reverse to Crystal Palace, which saw Liverpool’s league title hopes take a dent – they are now two points behind Manchester City with six games remaining.
What has not helped their course is that talisman Salah – who netted an early penalty against Atalanta but squandered a big chance later in the match – has scored just three times in the league since returning from a hamstring injury he sustained while playing for Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations in January.
Klopp, though, is confident Salah will soon be back at his best.
“I am not particularly concerned,” he said ahead of facing Fulham.
“That’s what strikers do, that’s what happens to strikers, that’s how it is. We have to go through this, he has to go through that. He is one of the most experienced players we have in the squad.
“We will go through that but that’s pretty much all. It’s not that Mo didn’t miss chances before in his life, that’s a part of the game. I am not particularly concerned.”
Reflecting on the task at hand now for his side, Klopp added: “Disappointed that we did not go through [in Europe] but not frustrated or angry.
“Now we can focus on the league and that’s what we will do. We have a few days to recover, we will do that, and then will travel the day after tomorrow to London and will play Fulham, which will be tricky but we will give our absolute all.
“That’s our competition now. I saw a good reaction from my side, we had not a great week last week obviously. This, if we want, was the start for the rest of the season with a good result and a good performance and that’s how we see it.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Fulham – Andreas Pereira
Pereira has been involved in four goals in his last four Premier League appearances (two goals, two assists), with his brace against West Ham more than he had netted in his previous 34 games combined (one).
Indeed, Pereira has more goal involvements than any other Fulham player since the start of last season (seven goals, 13 assists).
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah may not be firing on all cylinders from a goalscoring perspective, but he is proving to be Liverpool’s creative hub.
Only Martin Odegaard (68) and Bruno Fernandes (59) have created more chances from open play in the Premier League this season than Salah (58). He has created at least four open-play chances in five different games this season, with Roberto Firmino the last Liverpool player to do so more times in one season (10 in 2016-17).
MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN
The Reds might have had a bad week, but Opta’s model still fancies their chances of returning to winning ways.
Liverpool have scored in each of their last 19 away Premier League matches, the longest current run of any side. That being said, since losing 3-0 to Brentford in their first home Premier League game this season, Fulham have conceded just 13 goals in their last 15 games at Craven Cottage (0.9 per game). With six clean sheets at home so far, the Cottagers last had more in a Premier League campaign in 2010-11 (nine).
Marco Silva’s team have scored 49 Premier League goals this season, having netted 55 last season. The last time the Cottagers scored 50+ goals in consecutive Premier League seasons was in 2003-04 (52) and 2004-05 (52).
However, Fulham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D2 L8), winning 1-0 at Anfield in March 2021.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Fulham – 20.85%
Liverpool – 53.1%
Draw – 26.1%
Inter Miami v Nashville SC: Smith not looking forward to Messi reunion
Nashville SC coach Gary Smith is not looking forward to his team facing Lionel Messi for the third time this year, with the Inter Miami star fit and firing ahead of Saturday's MLS clash in Fort Lauderdale.
A hamstring issue caused Messi to spend almost a month on the sidelines before he returned with a goal in Miami's 2-2 draw with the Colorado Rapids earlier this month.
The Argentina great was then on the scoresheet again last weekend, as Miami ended a five-game winless run with an entertaining 3-2 success against Sporting Kansas City.
With Messi also scoring in both legs of a CONCACAF Champions Cup triumph over Nashville in March, Smith is sick of the sight of the eight-time Ballon d'Or winner.
"I'm a little bit disappointed that Lionel Messi has gotten himself back into tip-top sharp form as we come back into town again!" Smith said.
"I think that what we can safely say is when he's in the group, there's a very, very different feel and look and inspiration about that team."
Nashville are winless in three games since beating Charlotte FC 2-1 last month, with Daniel Gazdag's last-gasp strike condemning them to a 2-1 defeat against the Philadelphia Union last time out.
Smith believes his team are at least giving themselves a chance of picking up results, adding: "When we've got our best group on the field — and we need to have our best group on the field — we're very competitive."
Miami's win over Kansas City ensured they will enter the weekend top of the Eastern Conference standings, and boss Gerardo Martino is pleased to see them setting the pace.
"Being first in the standings is comforting, especially with a long week ahead," Martino said. "It was very important for us to get out of that rut of getting ties, losses, and making mistakes."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Inter Miami – Lionel Messi
Messi has been involved in at least one goal in each of his first five league games of the season, the second time he's done so in his career, having achieved the feat in six straight matches with Barcelona to begin 2013-14 in LaLiga.
The Argentine has also managed at least one goal involvement in each of his eight appearances for Miami across all competitions in 2024, including two goals and one assist in two matches against Nashville.
Nashville SC – Jacob Shaffelburg
Shaffelburg has assisted each of Nashville's last two MLS goals, one in each of their last two matches.
Previously, he had only recorded one assist in his first 40 regular-season matches with Nashville. Will his purple patch continue in Florida?
MATCH PREDICTION – INTER MIAMI WIN
Nashville have only managed one win in their last 15 away games against MLS opponents across all competitions (six draws, eight defeats).
That run, which stretches back to June 2023, includes a draw and a loss against Miami, who are also unbeaten in five straight head-to-head meetings between the teams (two wins, three draws).
Last week's 3-2 win over Sporting KC was the 11th time Miami have scored three or more goals in their 22 games with Messi making an appearance, across all competitions. They have only scored three or more goals on 15 occasions in their 134 all-time games without the Argentine. He should be involved on Saturday, and that makes them favourites.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Inter Miami – 36.6%
Nashville SC – 33.8%
Draw – 29.6%
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