In fantasy football, it’s often the ones you least suspect.
Every week, there are surprise stars who seemingly come out of nowhere to deliver performances that prove decisive in fantasy matchups.
Unexpected contributors are the theme of this week’s fantasy picks.
The players mentioned are not unknowns, but they either have matchups that would not be expected to deliver fantasy success or feature for teams that have surprisingly become relevant in both the NFL and fantasy worlds.
As usual, Stats Perform has backed up its selections of four offensive players and a defense with advanced data that supports their case for inclusion in fantasy lineups this week.
Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders
Tannehill is approaching the end of his time as the Titans' starter, but he still holds value for a Tennessee team looking to recover from a slow start to win a bad AFC South and for fantasy players eyeing a matchup to exploit this week.
That matchup comes in the form of a Commanders defense that has allowed over seven yards per pass and has given up 10 passing touchdowns, tied for the most in the NFL.
With Tannehill delivering an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.6 per cent of his pass attempts – the third-best ratio among quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts – he is in a strong position to see his consistent accuracy rewarded on Sunday despite the relative lack of playmaking talent around him.
Running Back: Saquon Barkley, New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
Most in the NFL world will be anticipating the Giants to come back down to earth against the Packers in the second London game of the season.
While the Packers are heavy favourites to slow New York’s fast start to the season, the odds of them halting Barkley's renaissance look slim.
No player in the NFL is averaging more yards per game than Barkley's 115.8, while a Packers defense that has traditionally struggled against the run is surrendering 4.97 yards per rush, the 11th-most in the league.
Hopes of progress for the Packers on run defense have yet to be realised, and Barkley should take advantage of their fallibility on the ground.
Wide Receiver: George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills
This is less about the matchup, which is an awful one for Pittsburgh, and more about opportunity for rookie receiver Pickens, who figures to be one of Kenny Pickett's favourite targets as the rookie quarterback makes his first career start.
Over the last two weeks, Pickens has been targeted 15 times, and he enjoyed the best game of his young career so far against the New York Jets, catching six of his eight targets 102 yards in a game Pickett entered for the second half.
The Buffalo defense is substantially better than that of the Jets, allowing only 4.75 yards per pass play. Yet the Bills are still dealing with injuries in the secondary and Pickens, whose big-play rate of 38.6 per cent is 10th among receivers with at least 20 targets, has the all-round game to turn the attention he will get from Pickett into production regardless of the difficult matchup.
Tight End: Tyler Conklin, New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
There's such a lack of depth at tight end for fantasy football purposes that it's necessary to take a few swings if you're stuck for an answer at the position.
Conklin represents such a swing but is one you can have more confidence in after his impressive Week 4.
He demonstrated chemistry with Zach Wilson on the quarterback's return from a knee injury, hauling in three catches for 52 yards in the Jets' surprise win over the Steelers. Conklin was targeted five times and registered a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup with a defender when targeted, on all five.
This week, the Jets face a Miami defense that has conceded 7.43 yards per pass play this season. Only the Seattle Seahawks (8.24) have fared worse by that measure. If Wilson and Conklin continue to build their rapport, the latter could prove an astute fantasy play by those managers who take a chance on him.
Defense/Special Teams: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
The Jaguars being competitive with the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles a week after stunning the Los Angeles Chargers illustrated just how far they have come in so little time under Doug Pederson.
Very few thought the Jags would quickly be in the mix for the AFC South but that is where they stand, with a diverse and aggressive defense playing a huge role in Jacksonville's progress.
The Jags have forced 27 negative plays this season, tied for the eighth-most among NFL defenses. The winless Texans, meanwhile, have seen their offense suffer 26 negative plays for minus 121 yards. Only four teams have lost more yardage on those plays this season.
Tied third in the NFL for takeaways with nine, look for a defense nobody saw coming to make the most of a favourable matchup and get Jacksonville back on track.
Browns score late touchdown to end Steelers' streak in snowy contest
Nick Chubb ran for a 2-yard touchdown in heavy snow with 57 seconds left, and the Cleveland Browns stunned division rival Pittsburgh 24-19 on Thursday night, ending the Steelers' five-game winning streak.
Chubb's score came in his first game against the AFC North-leading Steelers (8-3) since the running back sustained a season-ending left knee injury on a carry last year at Pittsburgh.
The Browns (3-8) had blown a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter and were down 19-18 before getting the ball back with 3:22 remaining after Pittsburgh punter Corliss Waitman shanked a 16-yarder.
With snow piling up and covering the yard lines on the field, Cleveland's Jameis Winston completed a third-down pass to Jerry Jeudy to the Pittsburgh 9. Two plays later, Chubb barrelled into the end zone.
The Steelers had one last chance, but quarterback Russell Wilson's Hail Mary on the final play was knocked down by Browns safety Grant Delpit in the end zone, touching off a wild celebration at Huntington Bank Field.
McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United
Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.
United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.
While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.
That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.
McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.
"Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.
"It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."
Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.
Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off.
"I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea.
"You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that.
"We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Ipswich Town - Liam Delap
Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.
That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).
Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho
Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).
The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).
MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN
Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.
The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.
United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.
The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.
However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Ipswich Town - 22.2%
Draw - 23%
Manchester United - 54.8%
Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills
Arne Slot deserves praise for not being "arrogant" with his approach to succeeding Jurgen Klopp as Liverpool boss, according to Danny Mills.
The Dutchman has made a hugely positive start to life at Anfield since replacing long-serving Klopp ahead of the 2024-25 season.
The 28 points Slot has collected is the joint-most of any manager in their opening 11 Premier League games along with Guus Hiddink at Chelsea.
Liverpool's only blemish on an otherwise perfect start to the top-flight campaign was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September.
Indeed, only in 2019-20 (31 points) have Liverpool collected more points after 11 games of a Premier League season than their 28 this campaign.
Former Leeds United and Manchester City defender Mills has been particularly impressed by Slot's approach to a new era at Anfield.
"Arne Slot has surprised me," Mills told Stats Perform. "They did have a difficult defeat against Nottingham Forest at home. That was a defeat not many people saw that coming, but the start he's had is unbelievable. It's incredible.
"Training might be slightly different, but the style of play is very similar. The players are comfortable with it. They've been high-energy, closing people down, and playing at 100 miles an hour when they win the ball back.
"It shows managerial intelligence to understand the players' qualities and build on what they had when they were successful. He hasn't overthought it or tinkered too much.
"He hasn’t been arrogant and said, 'I'm going to rip it up and start fresh'. It wasn't broken; it was already successful. He's just added to it."
Liverpool won a first ever Premier League title during Klopp's eight-and-a-half years in charge, as well the Champions League in 2018-19.
Klopp also lifted the FA Cup, two EFL Cups, the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup, setting a high benchmark to follow.
"Liverpool identified the man they wanted, brought him in, and he's been very clever," Mills added. "He looked at the squad and thought, 'these are good players. I don't need to change too much'.
"That's smart because Liverpool were very successful under Klopp. If you come in and rip up the playbook and it doesn't work, players will question why they're not doing what worked under Klopp."
Liverpool have conceded just six goals in the Premier League this season – four fewer than next-best Nottingham Forest.
They are conceding at a rate of around 0.5 goals per game, compared to around 1.1 in Klopp's final season in charge (41 goals in 38 matches).
"Slot has tweaked things slightly, maybe made them more defensively solid, which they needed to really challenge," Mills said. "Championship-winning or Champions League-winning teams are built on solid defences.
"You don't win without that. He's shored up the defence and allowed the players to continue doing what they were doing before."
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