NFL

NFL Fantasy Picks: George the pick of the bunch for Steelers

By Sports Desk October 05, 2022

In fantasy football, it’s often the ones you least suspect.

Every week, there are surprise stars who seemingly come out of nowhere to deliver performances that prove decisive in fantasy matchups.

Unexpected contributors are the theme of this week’s fantasy picks.

The players mentioned are not unknowns, but they either have matchups that would not be expected to deliver fantasy success or feature for teams that have surprisingly become relevant in both the NFL and fantasy worlds.

As usual, Stats Perform has backed up its selections of four offensive players and a defense with advanced data that supports their case for inclusion in fantasy lineups this week.
 

Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders

Tannehill is approaching the end of his time as the Titans' starter, but he still holds value for a Tennessee team looking to recover from a slow start to win a bad AFC South and for fantasy players eyeing a matchup to exploit this week.

That matchup comes in the form of a Commanders defense that has allowed over seven yards per pass and has given up 10 passing touchdowns, tied for the most in the NFL.

With Tannehill delivering an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.6 per cent of his pass attempts – the third-best ratio among quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts – he is in a strong position to see his consistent accuracy rewarded on Sunday despite the relative lack of playmaking talent around him.

Running Back: Saquon Barkley, New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers

Most in the NFL world will be anticipating the Giants to come back down to earth against the Packers in the second London game of the season.

While the Packers are heavy favourites to slow New York’s fast start to the season, the odds of them halting Barkley's renaissance look slim.

No player in the NFL is averaging more yards per game than Barkley's 115.8, while a Packers defense that has traditionally struggled against the run is surrendering 4.97 yards per rush, the 11th-most in the league.

Hopes of progress for the Packers on run defense have yet to be realised, and Barkley should take advantage of their fallibility on the ground.

Wide Receiver: George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills

This is less about the matchup, which is an awful one for Pittsburgh, and more about opportunity for rookie receiver Pickens, who figures to be one of Kenny Pickett's favourite targets as the rookie quarterback makes his first career start.

Over the last two weeks, Pickens has been targeted 15 times, and he enjoyed the best game of his young career so far against the New York Jets, catching six of his eight targets 102 yards in a game Pickett entered for the second half.

The Buffalo defense is substantially better than that of the Jets, allowing only 4.75 yards per pass play. Yet the Bills are still dealing with injuries in the secondary and Pickens, whose big-play rate of 38.6 per cent is 10th among receivers with at least 20 targets, has the all-round game to turn the attention he will get from Pickett into production regardless of the difficult matchup.

Tight End: Tyler Conklin, New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

There's such a lack of depth at tight end for fantasy football purposes that it's necessary to take a few swings if you're stuck for an answer at the position.

Conklin represents such a swing but is one you can have more confidence in after his impressive Week 4.

He demonstrated chemistry with Zach Wilson on the quarterback's return from a knee injury, hauling in three catches for 52 yards in the Jets' surprise win over the Steelers. Conklin was targeted five times and registered a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup with a defender when targeted, on all five.

This week, the Jets face a Miami defense that has conceded 7.43 yards per pass play this season. Only the Seattle Seahawks (8.24) have fared worse by that measure. If Wilson and Conklin continue to build their rapport, the latter could prove an astute fantasy play by those managers who take a chance on him.

Defense/Special Teams: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

The Jaguars being competitive with the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles a week after stunning the Los Angeles Chargers illustrated just how far they have come in so little time under Doug Pederson.

Very few thought the Jags would quickly be in the mix for the AFC South but that is where they stand, with a diverse and aggressive defense playing a huge role in Jacksonville's progress.

The Jags have forced 27 negative plays this season, tied for the eighth-most among NFL defenses. The winless Texans, meanwhile, have seen their offense suffer 26 negative plays for minus 121 yards. Only four teams have lost more yardage on those plays this season.

Tied third in the NFL for takeaways with nine, look for a defense nobody saw coming to make the most of a favourable matchup and get Jacksonville back on track.

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    Quarterback Dak Prescott will reportedly miss several weeks with a hamstring injury sustained in Sunday's 27-21 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

    The severity of the injury was determined following an MRI, and reported Monday from multiple media outlets.

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    Prescott, who signed a record-breaking, $240million contract hours before this season's opener, suffered the injury late in the third quarter.

    He was replaced by Cooper Rush, and the seven-year backup will get the start this Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles.

    Rush completed 13-of-25 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons, but couldn't rally Dallas all the way back.

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    Rush has found some success as a fill-in starter for the Cowboys, though, the 30-year-old hasn't been forced into the starting role since 2022.

    In six career starts for Dallas, he's gone 5-1 with 1,281 passing yards with seven touchdowns, four interceptions and an 83.6 rating.

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    Prescott is planning to get a second opinion, and the Cowboys have not decided if they will place him on injured reserve, which would keep him on the sideline a minimum of four games.

     

    Prescott, who signed a record-breaking, $240million contract hours before this season's opener, suffered the injury late in the third quarter.

    He was replaced by Cooper Rush, and the seven-year backup will get the start this Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles.

    Rush completed 13-of-25 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons, but couldn't rally Dallas all the way back.

    The Cowboys ended up losing their third straight game to drop to 3-5, which matches the total number of losses the team had each of the last three seasons.

    They now sit in third place in the NFC East, 3 1/2 games behind the division-leading Washington Commanders.

    Rush has found some success as a fill-in starter for the Cowboys, though, the 30-year-old hasn't been forced into the starting role since 2022.

    In six career starts for Dallas, he's gone 5-1 with 1,281 passing yards with seven touchdowns, four interceptions and an 83.6 rating.

    There is some good news for the Cowboys, though, as star defensive end Micah Parsons is likely to return this Sunday after missing the last four games with a high-ankle sprain.

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    Lucky winners: Southampton 

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    While Beto, who headed against the crossbar just 25 seconds before Armstrong's winner, and Jack Harrison spurned great chances for the Toffees, Southampton were also grateful for a late VAR intervention, as the former saw a potential leveller chalked off for a marginal offside call.

    It was the first time Everton had failed to score against Southampton in the Premier League since February 2022, bringing their five-match unbeaten run in the competition to a halt.

     

    Unlucky losers: Crystal Palace

    Southampton ended the weekend in 19th, above winless Wolves after they were pegged back in a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace at Molineux.

    Marc Guehi salvaged a draw for the Eagles, who were without star men Adam Wharton and Eberechi Eze yet arguably still did enough to leave the West Midlands with all three points.

    They racked up 19 shots totalling 2.51 xG to their hosts' 11, which had a total value of 1.51 xG. Palace's xG figure was the highest in the Premier League this weekend, but they were missing their shooting boots as Ismaila Sarr squandered two glorious chances when they were a goal to the good in the second half. 

    With both defences struggling, this was only the second Premier League game of the season to be goalless at half-time but see both sides score at least twice in the second half, after Everton 2-3 Bournemouth in August.

    There could have been a fifth goal in stoppage time, too, as Jean-Phillipe Mateta saw a potential winner disallowed for a foul on Jose Sa in the build-up. Wolves – and their under-fire head coach Gary O'Neil – arguably got away with one.

     

    Lucky winners: Chelsea 

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    Moises Caicedo's well-taken volley cancelled out Bruno Fernandes' penalty and Chelsea arguably looked the more likely victors in the second half, but they only generated 1.1 xG from their 12 attempts – and just 0.29 from six after the interval.

    United, meanwhile, had chances worth 1.98 xG, though Fernandes' spot-kick – with an xG value of 0.79 – was a major contributing factor.

    Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho squandered decent opportunities for United, though, and incoming boss Ruben Amorim has plenty of work to do with their attackers.

    United have scored just nine goals in 10 Premier League games this season – their worst record through 10 matches of any league campaign since 1973-74 (also nine).

    Fans of a certain vintage will need no reminder of what happened at the end of that season – United were relegated from the First Division, their fate sealed by club legend Denis Law scoring against them with a nonchalant backheel, while representing rivals Man City.

     

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