NFL

NFL Fantasy Picks: Russ can finally cook against winless Raiders

By Sports Desk September 28, 2022

As in the NFL, if you don't have a win by Week 3 of the fantasy football season, it's probably time to be concerned.

Well as concerned as it's healthy to be about a game played for fun with no real-world consequences.

Still, should you still be staring at a goose egg in the win column, then it is clear you need to nail your lineup selections in Week 4. 

Thankfully, Stats Perform is here to help, using its advanced data to pick out four offensive players and a defense who are primed to deliver fantasy production this weekend.

Quarterback: Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

Wilson managed to lead a game-winning drive on Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers despite being throttled for much of the game by their outstanding defense.

The defense of the Raiders, despite the best efforts of impressive edge rusher Maxx Crosby, presents nowhere close to the same challenge, allowing 7.15 yards per pass play - the fourth-most in the NFL. The Raiders' nine touchdown drives allowed are tied for the fifth-most in the league.

In short, this is a game where Wilson can finally have hope of thriving in a Denver offense to which he has so far struggled to adapt. Have faith that Wilson will deliver in this AFC West clash.

Running Back: Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears @ New York Giants

With David Montgomery suffering a knee injury in the Bears' narrow win over the Houston Texans, Herbert stepped up, compiling 157 rushing yards at a rate of 7.85 yards per carry and scoring two touchdowns on the ground.

Herbert is taking advantage of the holes the Bears' offensive line is opening, averaging 4.76 yards before contact per attempt, the third-most among running backs with at least 20 carries, per Stats Perform data.

Bears quarterback Justin Fields has attempted just 45 passes through three games, with the Bears running the ball 57 per cent of the time. The usage will clearly be there for Herbert, assuming Montgomery cannot play, and that should translate to another impressive statistical day against a Giants defense allowing 5.3 yards per rush.

Wide Receiver: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks

St. Brown is enjoying one of the breakout years in the NFL through three weeks. He is fourth in the NFL in receptions with 23 and has 253 yards and three touchdowns to his name.

He has a huge opportunity to add to that against a dismal Seahawks defense.

Unsurprisingly, the Seahawks' performance in Week 1 against the Broncos, in which they consistently stood firm in the red zone, proved a mirage, with Seattle shredded by the 49ers and Atlanta Falcons in successive weeks.

The Seahawks are allowing 7.84 yards per pass play, only their division rivals the Arizona Cardinals have given up more. With such a favourable matchup at home, St. Brown is a bona fide fantasy WR1 this week.

Tight End: David Njoku, Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons

Njoku produced his best game of the season so far in the Browns' Week 3 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, hauling in nine of his 10 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown.

He is excelling at creating separation, winning 12 of his 16 matchups with a defender so far this season, and this week gets to face a Falcons defense that has allowed a touchdown or field goal on 15 of the 30 offensive drives it has faced in 2022.

With Njoku second in the pecking order behind wide receiver Amari Cooper in terms of pass-catchers on this Browns offense, he is in a prime spot to enjoy another excellent game.

Defense/Special Teams: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets

The Steelers might have struggled to stop Njoku and the Browns, but their defense should be salivating at the thought of facing the Jets.

Zach Wilson is set to return for the Jets, but he is unlikely to change their struggles holding on to the ball.

The Jets have already committed seven giveaways this season. Last year, Wilson threw 19 interceptable passes in 13 games. 

Even without star pass rusher T.J. Watt, the Steelers have the defensive talent to take advantage of the Jets' carelessness and make it a difficult 2022 debut for Wilson.

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    The path to the play-offs is now even tougher for the Dallas Cowboys.

    Quarterback Dak Prescott will reportedly miss several weeks with a hamstring injury sustained in Sunday's 27-21 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

    The severity of the injury was determined following an MRI, and reported Monday from multiple media outlets.

    Prescott is planning to get a second opinion, and the Cowboys have not decided if they will place him on injured reserve, which would keep him on the sideline a minimum of four games.

     

    Prescott, who signed a record-breaking, $240million contract hours before this season's opener, suffered the injury late in the third quarter.

    He was replaced by Cooper Rush, and the seven-year backup will get the start this Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles.

    Rush completed 13-of-25 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons, but couldn't rally Dallas all the way back.

    The Cowboys ended up losing their third straight game to drop to 3-5, which matches the total number of losses the team had each of the last three seasons.

    They now sit in third place in the NFC East, 3 1/2 games behind the division-leading Washington Commanders.

    Rush has found some success as a fill-in starter for the Cowboys, though, the 30-year-old hasn't been forced into the starting role since 2022.

    In six career starts for Dallas, he's gone 5-1 with 1,281 passing yards with seven touchdowns, four interceptions and an 83.6 rating.

    There is some good news for the Cowboys, though, as star defensive end Micah Parsons is likely to return this Sunday after missing the last four games with a high-ankle sprain.

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    Prescott is planning to get a second opinion, and the Cowboys have not decided if they will place him on injured reserve, which would keep him on the sideline a minimum of four games.

     

    Prescott, who signed a record-breaking, $240million contract hours before this season's opener, suffered the injury late in the third quarter.

    He was replaced by Cooper Rush, and the seven-year backup will get the start this Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles.

    Rush completed 13-of-25 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons, but couldn't rally Dallas all the way back.

    The Cowboys ended up losing their third straight game to drop to 3-5, which matches the total number of losses the team had each of the last three seasons.

    They now sit in third place in the NFC East, 3 1/2 games behind the division-leading Washington Commanders.

    Rush has found some success as a fill-in starter for the Cowboys, though, the 30-year-old hasn't been forced into the starting role since 2022.

    In six career starts for Dallas, he's gone 5-1 with 1,281 passing yards with seven touchdowns, four interceptions and an 83.6 rating.

    There is some good news for the Cowboys, though, as star defensive end Micah Parsons is likely to return this Sunday after missing the last four games with a high-ankle sprain.

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    We are now 10 games into the Premier League season and the table is beginning to take shape, but that does not mean there is no room for an upset or two.

    On Saturday, both Manchester City and Arsenal fell to surprise defeats at Bournemouth and Newcastle United respectively. 

    It was only the third time since the start of 2017-18 that both of the previous season's top two teams had lost on the same day in the Premier League, after March 7, 2021 and January 14, 2023.

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    The weekend's action began with Arsenal travelling to St James' Park to face Newcastle, with Mikel Arteta's side chasing a victory to move within a point of leaders Liverpool.

    However, they succumbed to a 1-0 defeat as Alexander Isak's early goal proved enough for Newcastle to make it three wins in their last four home league games against Arsenal (one loss).

    The Gunners could count themselves unlucky to come away from Tyneside with nothing, however, after limiting Newcastle to a measly 0.53 xG – 0.25 of which came from the chance for Isak's goal.

    Only West Ham, who played half of their defeat to Nottingham Forest with 10 men, created a lower figure across the nine games to take place this weekend, with 0.13 xG.

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    Lucky winners: Southampton 

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    Russell Martin's team accumulated just 0.74 xG to Everton's 1.56, but Adam Armstrong's strike five minutes from time handed them a huge three points in their fight for safety.

    While Beto, who headed against the crossbar just 25 seconds before Armstrong's winner, and Jack Harrison spurned great chances for the Toffees, Southampton were also grateful for a late VAR intervention, as the former saw a potential leveller chalked off for a marginal offside call.

    It was the first time Everton had failed to score against Southampton in the Premier League since February 2022, bringing their five-match unbeaten run in the competition to a halt.

     

    Unlucky losers: Crystal Palace

    Southampton ended the weekend in 19th, above winless Wolves after they were pegged back in a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace at Molineux.

    Marc Guehi salvaged a draw for the Eagles, who were without star men Adam Wharton and Eberechi Eze yet arguably still did enough to leave the West Midlands with all three points.

    They racked up 19 shots totalling 2.51 xG to their hosts' 11, which had a total value of 1.51 xG. Palace's xG figure was the highest in the Premier League this weekend, but they were missing their shooting boots as Ismaila Sarr squandered two glorious chances when they were a goal to the good in the second half. 

    With both defences struggling, this was only the second Premier League game of the season to be goalless at half-time but see both sides score at least twice in the second half, after Everton 2-3 Bournemouth in August.

    There could have been a fifth goal in stoppage time, too, as Jean-Phillipe Mateta saw a potential winner disallowed for a foul on Jose Sa in the build-up. Wolves – and their under-fire head coach Gary O'Neil – arguably got away with one.

     

    Lucky winners: Chelsea 

    Sunday's late game saw Chelsea fight back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United at Old Trafford, denying Ruud van Nistelrooy a first Premier League win as the Red Devils' interim head coach.

    Moises Caicedo's well-taken volley cancelled out Bruno Fernandes' penalty and Chelsea arguably looked the more likely victors in the second half, but they only generated 1.1 xG from their 12 attempts – and just 0.29 from six after the interval.

    United, meanwhile, had chances worth 1.98 xG, though Fernandes' spot-kick – with an xG value of 0.79 – was a major contributing factor.

    Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho squandered decent opportunities for United, though, and incoming boss Ruben Amorim has plenty of work to do with their attackers.

    United have scored just nine goals in 10 Premier League games this season – their worst record through 10 matches of any league campaign since 1973-74 (also nine).

    Fans of a certain vintage will need no reminder of what happened at the end of that season – United were relegated from the First Division, their fate sealed by club legend Denis Law scoring against them with a nonchalant backheel, while representing rivals Man City.

     

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