Since entering the NFL in 2020, Tua Tagovailoa has had more doubters than believers.
With a stellar college career at Alabama ended by a hip dislocation, there were plenty of concerns around Tagovailoa ahead of the 2020 draft, and they persisted after the Miami Dolphins put them to one side to select him fifth overall.
A rookie year in which he rotated with Ryan Fitzpatrick and a surge in the second half of last season fuelled largely by the Dolphins' reliance on the run-pass option did little to dissuade the sceptics, with plenty still questioning his ability to be the long-term answer at quarterback for a franchise that has not had one since Dan Marino rode off into the sunset.
Those doubts evidently existed within the Dolphins' organisation, one which was reportedly very interested in striking a trade for Deshaun Watson last year.
But two games into an undefeated start to a make-or-break year for Tagovailoa it is clear he has the belief of the most important person in the building – his head coach.
And on Sunday, as the Dolphins remarkably stormed back from a 35-14 fourth-quarter deficit to stun the Baltimore Ravens 42-38 on the road, Mike McDaniel's faith in one of the most scrutinised quarterbacks in the NFL enabled Tagovailoa to deliver one of the most incredible results in recent league history.
The Dolphins became the first team to overcome a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit since the Philadelphia Eagles achieved that feat in Week 15 of the 2010 season against the New York Giants.
For those who aren't familiar with that game, it required a 65-yard punt return from Desean Jackson as time expired for the Eagles to complete the comeback and became known as the Miracle at the New Meadowlands. That's how unlikely such turnarounds are.
Yet McDaniel instilled calm in the Dolphins as they went into the second half trailing 28-7, and his relaxed approach and his belief in his quarterback yielded astonishing dividends.
McDaniel's understated inspiration
"I just challenged them to say 'who cares what the score is?' It's about how we play football together, so this is an opportunity, it's a tough one but that doesn't even matter, let's get something out of this game to feel good about in the second half and we'll worry about the score some time in the fourth quarter," McDaniel said.
"I didn't care about the outcome of the game at that point, at half-time it was a huge opportunity for us to show who we are and play good football for each other."
In regards to Tagovailoa, McDaniel was delighted he succeeded in getting his quarterback to play with a short memory in a game where he threw two interceptions in the first half.
"Now maybe Tua will finally listen to me," added McDaniel. "It's awesome to be critical of yourself, it's good. He has a high standard for himself. After the first game I just wanted to see the guy enjoy playing football, and understand that yes 'you want to make the perfect read and the perfect throw every time, but who cares?'
"If you just get better at one thing a game you're going to be pretty good at the end of the season. So let's just press forward.
"The absolute worst thing could have happened for him at the beginning of the game [on the first interception], where we get a contested ball, that's not really his fault, and then he starts pressing and throws it up for a second interception.
"This is huge because he stopped worrying about the last play and he went and played and took his responsibility seriously to his team-mates about 'hey I'm going to lead this team confidently'.
"It is what you get into sports for. I think it was a moment that he'll never forget, that hopefully he can use moving forward because we basically had to play perfect complementary football to come back from a deficit like that against a really good team. His team-mates learned a lot about him and I think he learned something about himself."
That short memory allowed Tagovailoa to complete 36 of his 50 pass attempts for a career-high 469 yards and six touchdowns. The only other two Dolphin quarterbacks to throw six touchdowns in a game are Marino and Bob Griese.
And, with two of those scores coming on deep shots 48 and 60 yards to Tyreek Hill, Tagovailoa may feel he has gone some way to quieting a narrative that has persisted throughout the build-up to this campaign.
Deep ball questions answered?
The offseason in Miami was defined in part by questions about Tagovailoa's ability to throw the deep ball. Last season, he had one completion of 20 yards or more for a touchdown. Through two games in 2022, he has three.
In addition to producing an immediate improvement on where he was last year in completing passes downfield, Tagovailoa also made strides from his performance in the opening week of the season against the New England Patriots.
Week 1 saw Tagovailoa deliver an accurate, well-thrown ball on 71.9 per cent of his passes, according to Stats Perform data. Against the Ravens, his well-thrown rate was up to 80 per cent.
Tagovailoa's performance saw him enter the NFL record books as the third-youngest player with six touchdown passes in a single game and the fourth-youngest with at least 450 passing yards and five touchdowns in the same game at the age of 24 years and 200 days.
His success came in part through heeding the words of his coach and getting significantly better in one area than he was in the previous week, but his career day was not simply the product of better accuracy and motivation from McDaniel.
Play-calling mastery
Indeed, it was also a result of having two receivers with the speed to terrify any defense and a play-caller who knows how to deploy them and set his team up for success, as well as two massive coverage mix-ups by Baltimore that allowed Hill to tie the game with two deep receptions.
While he only produced a burn – which is when a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted – on seven of his 13 targets (a ratio of 53.8 per cent that was below the average of 58.7 for the week as of Monday), only five receivers targeted at least five times in Week 2 averaged more burn yards per target than Hill's 14.62.
With fellow speedster Jaylen Waddle winning 13 of his 19 matchups for an impressive burn rate of 68.4, Tagovailoa was targeting two pass-catchers adept at creating separation who presented the perfect duo with which to attack a Ravens secondary battling injuries, Hill and Waddle becoming the first pair of team-mates in NFL history to record at least 10 receptions, 150 receiving yards and two touchdown receptions in the same game.
And McDaniel made the most telling illustration of his impact on the final drive. Schooled in the Kyle Shanahan offense, the first-year head coach showed the value of his long apprenticeship under the league's pre-eminent play-caller on two game-deciding calls.
The first was his call for a split-zone run with Chase Edmonds on second-and-one from the Ravens' 35-yard line with 46 seconds left.
It is a situation where most would have expected another shot at big passing play. Instead, McDaniel created an explosive move with the run, using the snap motion to take the nickel defender at the second level over to the far side of the field, before safety Chuck Clark, playing down in the box, reacted to tight end Mike Gesicki peeling back across the formation to block linebacker Patrick Queen by following him away from the direction of the play, his vacation of his previous alignment and well-executed blocking by Miami creating a huge hole for Edmonds to rumble 28 yards to the seven-yard line.
Two plays later, McDaniel again used motion to help the Dolphins complete the comeback, this time with Waddle going across the field and being followed in man coverage by former Alabama team-mate Jalyn Armour-Davis. At the snap, Trent Sherfield ran a slant that essentially served as a pick play, the collision between Armour-Davis and Daryl Worley leaving the former out of position for long enough for Waddle to create separation with his pivot route and allowing Tagovailoa, having superbly navigated the pocket, to find him with a high throw on the move.
At Alabama, Tagovailoa was playing for college football's powerhouse, a program that serves as a ceaseless production line of NFL talent and the perfect incubator in which a young quarterback can thrive at that level.
In other words, he was in the ideal situation. Across his first two seasons in Miami, he was in anything but.
As the hugely improbable fightback against the Ravens demonstrated, Tagovailoa – with two game-breakers at receiver and a head coach with the mindset and the play-calling acumen to accentuate the strengths of his quarterback and his surrounding talent – is in a substantially better spot.
McDaniel, Tagovailoa and Co. combined to achieve the near-impossible and, after a fourth-quarter turnaround for ages, the quarterback whom so many were willing to write off should be the subject of burgeoning belief.
Wolves v Arsenal: ‘What we still have to play for is beautiful’ – Arteta
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta set out to remind his team that they still have something “beautiful” to play for despite their Champions League exit.
The Gunners slipped out of UEFA’s flagship club competition in midweek when they went down 1-0 to Bayern Munich, losing 3-2 on aggregate.
That defeat followed on from a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa last Sunday – a reverse that significantly dented Arsenal’s title hopes, with the Gunners now two points behind Manchester City who, after this weekend, will have a game in hand.
Arsenal face Wolves on Saturday and, with City in FA Cup action, a win would see them move back to the top of the table, at least temporarily, so Arteta offered a reminder that all is not lost.
“I can guarantee you we are fully focused on Wolves and everybody's lifted,” he said following the loss in Munich.
“What we still have to play is beautiful and I said before, it's time to be next to our players and in this moment, not when you win 10 in a row and a draw, that's easy to prize our players and to be behind them and to say really nice things. The moment is now to be next to them.”
On Friday, in his pre-match press conference, Arteta added: “As an experience, [the Champions League was] the best one.
“I am now fully focused on the times ahead of us. We are now behind Manchester City and will give it a good go. The context is clear. If we win we are top of the league.”
Wolves sit 11th, though they could do with snapping a four-game winless streak in order to get their European hopes back on track.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Wolves – Matheus Cunha
Cunha has been involved in nine goals in his last nine Premier League games, scoring six and assisting three. His 11 goals overall this season is the fourth most by a Wolves player in a single Premier League campaign after Raul Jimenez (17 in 2019-20, 13 in 2018-19) and Steven Fletcher (12 in 2011-12).
Arsenal – Bukayo Saka
Saka has been involved in eight goals in his last seven Premier League away games, scoring seven and assisting one. His 13 away goal involvements overall this term (eight goals, five assists) is the most by an Arsenal player in a single Premier League campaign since Alexis Sanchez’s 20 in 2016-17.
MATCH PREDICTION: ARSENAL WIN
Arsenal lost a Premier League game for the first time in 2024 against Villa last time out. Since the start of last season, only twice have the Gunners suffered consecutive league defeats, doing so in May 2023 (v Brighton and Nottingham Forest) and December this season (v West Ham and Fulham).
Wolves are winless in their last four Premier League games (D2 L2), though they have won their last two at Molineux against sides starting the day in the top two of the table, beating Man City 2-1 in September and Spurs by the same score in November.
Arsenal have scored in their last 32 meetings with Wolves in all competitions.
Wolves have now lost each of their last five against the Gunners, failing to score in both home defeats in that run.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Wolves – 21.5%
Arsenal – 51.2%
Draw – 27.3%
Fulham v Liverpool: Klopp unconcerned by Salah's scoring form
Jurgen Klopp is not overly worried by Mohamed Salah’s slight dip in form, as the Liverpool manager turned full focus to the Reds’ Premier League title challenge.
A bad week for Liverpool was capped off on Thursday when, despite a 1-0 win over Atalanta, they slumped out of the Europa League 3-1 on aggregate following a heavy defeat at Anfield in the first leg.
That loss on April 11 came three days before a 1-0 home reverse to Crystal Palace, which saw Liverpool’s league title hopes take a dent – they are now two points behind Manchester City with six games remaining.
What has not helped their course is that talisman Salah – who netted an early penalty against Atalanta but squandered a big chance later in the match – has scored just three times in the league since returning from a hamstring injury he sustained while playing for Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations in January.
Klopp, though, is confident Salah will soon be back at his best.
“I am not particularly concerned,” he said ahead of facing Fulham.
“That’s what strikers do, that’s what happens to strikers, that’s how it is. We have to go through this, he has to go through that. He is one of the most experienced players we have in the squad.
“We will go through that but that’s pretty much all. It’s not that Mo didn’t miss chances before in his life, that’s a part of the game. I am not particularly concerned.”
Reflecting on the task at hand now for his side, Klopp added: “Disappointed that we did not go through [in Europe] but not frustrated or angry.
“Now we can focus on the league and that’s what we will do. We have a few days to recover, we will do that, and then will travel the day after tomorrow to London and will play Fulham, which will be tricky but we will give our absolute all.
“That’s our competition now. I saw a good reaction from my side, we had not a great week last week obviously. This, if we want, was the start for the rest of the season with a good result and a good performance and that’s how we see it.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Fulham – Andreas Pereira
Pereira has been involved in four goals in his last four Premier League appearances (two goals, two assists), with his brace against West Ham more than he had netted in his previous 34 games combined (one).
Indeed, Pereira has more goal involvements than any other Fulham player since the start of last season (seven goals, 13 assists).
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah may not be firing on all cylinders from a goalscoring perspective, but he is proving to be Liverpool’s creative hub.
Only Martin Odegaard (68) and Bruno Fernandes (59) have created more chances from open play in the Premier League this season than Salah (58). He has created at least four open-play chances in five different games this season, with Roberto Firmino the last Liverpool player to do so more times in one season (10 in 2016-17).
MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN
The Reds might have had a bad week, but Opta’s model still fancies their chances of returning to winning ways.
Liverpool have scored in each of their last 19 away Premier League matches, the longest current run of any side. That being said, since losing 3-0 to Brentford in their first home Premier League game this season, Fulham have conceded just 13 goals in their last 15 games at Craven Cottage (0.9 per game). With six clean sheets at home so far, the Cottagers last had more in a Premier League campaign in 2010-11 (nine).
Marco Silva’s team have scored 49 Premier League goals this season, having netted 55 last season. The last time the Cottagers scored 50+ goals in consecutive Premier League seasons was in 2003-04 (52) and 2004-05 (52).
However, Fulham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D2 L8), winning 1-0 at Anfield in March 2021.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Fulham – 20.85%
Liverpool – 53.1%
Draw – 26.1%
Inter Miami v Nashville SC: Smith not looking forward to Messi reunion
Nashville SC coach Gary Smith is not looking forward to his team facing Lionel Messi for the third time this year, with the Inter Miami star fit and firing ahead of Saturday's MLS clash in Fort Lauderdale.
A hamstring issue caused Messi to spend almost a month on the sidelines before he returned with a goal in Miami's 2-2 draw with the Colorado Rapids earlier this month.
The Argentina great was then on the scoresheet again last weekend, as Miami ended a five-game winless run with an entertaining 3-2 success against Sporting Kansas City.
With Messi also scoring in both legs of a CONCACAF Champions Cup triumph over Nashville in March, Smith is sick of the sight of the eight-time Ballon d'Or winner.
"I'm a little bit disappointed that Lionel Messi has gotten himself back into tip-top sharp form as we come back into town again!" Smith said.
"I think that what we can safely say is when he's in the group, there's a very, very different feel and look and inspiration about that team."
Nashville are winless in three games since beating Charlotte FC 2-1 last month, with Daniel Gazdag's last-gasp strike condemning them to a 2-1 defeat against the Philadelphia Union last time out.
Smith believes his team are at least giving themselves a chance of picking up results, adding: "When we've got our best group on the field — and we need to have our best group on the field — we're very competitive."
Miami's win over Kansas City ensured they will enter the weekend top of the Eastern Conference standings, and boss Gerardo Martino is pleased to see them setting the pace.
"Being first in the standings is comforting, especially with a long week ahead," Martino said. "It was very important for us to get out of that rut of getting ties, losses, and making mistakes."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Inter Miami – Lionel Messi
Messi has been involved in at least one goal in each of his first five league games of the season, the second time he's done so in his career, having achieved the feat in six straight matches with Barcelona to begin 2013-14 in LaLiga.
The Argentine has also managed at least one goal involvement in each of his eight appearances for Miami across all competitions in 2024, including two goals and one assist in two matches against Nashville.
Nashville SC – Jacob Shaffelburg
Shaffelburg has assisted each of Nashville's last two MLS goals, one in each of their last two matches.
Previously, he had only recorded one assist in his first 40 regular-season matches with Nashville. Will his purple patch continue in Florida?
MATCH PREDICTION – INTER MIAMI WIN
Nashville have only managed one win in their last 15 away games against MLS opponents across all competitions (six draws, eight defeats).
That run, which stretches back to June 2023, includes a draw and a loss against Miami, who are also unbeaten in five straight head-to-head meetings between the teams (two wins, three draws).
Last week's 3-2 win over Sporting KC was the 11th time Miami have scored three or more goals in their 22 games with Messi making an appearance, across all competitions. They have only scored three or more goals on 15 occasions in their 134 all-time games without the Argentine. He should be involved on Saturday, and that makes them favourites.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Inter Miami – 36.6%
Nashville SC – 33.8%
Draw – 29.6%
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