NFL fans have been spoiled by the standard of quarterback play in the 21st century.
A golden age led by Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers is seemingly running right into another, though one largely dominated by quarterbacks with very different skill sets.
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have heralded the start of a fascinating new era. The success of Mahomes, Allen and Co. has in part been a product of their ability to make an impact with their legs as well as through the air.
Still, the ultimate test of a quarterback remains his ability to deliver in situations where the defense knows a pass is coming.
The confluence of the final years of the great pocket quarterbacks and the beginning of potential Hall of Fame careers of several dual-threat superstars can make a discussion about which modern-day signal-callers perform best in these scenarios a difficult one to settle.
However, Stats Perform has developed a metric to rank the top quarterbacks since 2008 in expected passing situations called spread value.
Spread value is calculated using our efficiency versus expected (EVE) metric. For quarterbacks, EVE measures performance in terms of yards added in expected passing situations.
The spread value is generated using the EVE baselines for each season since 2008. In essence, spread value is how far a quarterback is above or below the cumulative baseline in that period, with significantly more weight given to recent results.
That weighting has undoubtedly influenced the quarterback at the top of the standings, though his consistently spectacular play has also played a substantial role.
Mahomes Magic
With the historic pace Mahomes has set since entering the NFL, it's no surprise the man leading the charge for 'the new generation' is atop the rankings.
Mahomes has racked up 18,707 passing yards over his first four seasons as a starter, comfortably surpassing the likes of Manning and Rodgers and putting him on track to go down as an all-time great.
His spread value of 6.429 is a product of Mahomes leading the NFL in EVE in three of his four seasons as a starting quarterback, including in a 2021 campaign that saw questions about his and the Kansas City Chiefs' ability to excel against two-high safety defenses.
Mahomes' task going forward will be to maintain his superiority with a receiving corps absent Tyreek Hill following his trade to the Miami Dolphins.
He will not lack for in-conference challengers, with a further six active AFC quarterbacks inside the top 20 for spread value since 2008. Half of those QBs reside inside his own division, encapsulating the arms race that is the AFC West.
Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers is 11th after finishing fourth in EVE last season, Derek Carr of the Oakland Raiders is 17th and new Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson 18th.
The man regarded as Mahomes' chief rival, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, is 12th behind Herbert. His position below Herbert can be attributed to his early struggles after entering the NFL and a 2020 season regarded to this point as his vintage year only being good enough for 13th in EVE.
Allen did improve to eighth in 2021 and, though some may wonder how much better he can get following his stupendous playoff duel with Mahomes, he will look to take the next step and help the Bills finally overhaul the Chiefs.
Yet for all the talk of the AFC being the deeper conference, there are seven active NFC quarterbacks in the top 20, with Rodgers (third), Dak Prescott (fourth), Matthew Stafford (seventh) and Kirk Cousins (eighth) all residing in the top 10.
A 2021 season in which he was 10th in EVE ensured Kyler Murray of 16th in spread value and, despite the disappointing end to the campaign, underscored the Arizona Cardinals' need to sign him to an extension. His NFC West rival Jimmy Garoppolo is three spots higher, above even his former New England Patriots mentor in an indication of the level of efficiency successor Trey Lance will need to at least match for the San Francisco 49ers to succeed in 2022 and beyond.
Breesy Does It
Despite a glorious career in which he compiled a plethora of records, some of which Brady has since broken, Drew Brees perhaps does not receive the same level of acclaim as his contemporaries in the NFL’s 'old guard' of quarterbacks.
But the New Orleans Saints' legend is second behind Mahomes in spread value. Immediately trailing him among that veteran group are Rodgers and Philip Rivers in fifth.
Brees' position is a consequence of him leading the NFL in EVE in expected passing situations for five straight seasons between 2008-12. He regained that spot in 2017 and the final season of his career in 2020 was the only year in which he finished outside the top five.
Those remarkable numbers are a tribute not just to Brees' accuracy – he was first in well-thrown percentage (min. 100 attempts) in 2019 and fourth in 2020 – but also to the longevity of the connection between him and former Saints coach Sean Payton.
But what of the man who ended Brees' career and stunned the NFL world by reversing his decision to conclude his own?
Tom Not Terrific?
Brady's career was over for all of 40 days and it will now continue for as long as the greatest of all time sees fit, even if he appears to have nothing left to prove.
While Brady's legacy is secure, the extra season(s) could help him climb the ladder in spread value, in which he is a – by his standards – lowly 19th.
His standing is impacted by a 2008 campaign in which he suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1 and his final year with the New England Patriots in 2019, which marked his worst EVE performance in expected passing situations over the 14-season span.
Brady's zenith in that regard came in the spectacular 2016 season in which he led the league in EVE despite playing only 12 games. He subsequently guided the Patriots to Super Bowl glory with a historic comeback against the Atlanta Falcons.
The latest act of his incredible two-plus decades in the NFL with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has not seen him return to those heights even as he has lifted the Bucs to the league's elite.
He was 12th in EVE in 2020 as he guided the Bucs to Super Bowl glory and 13th in 2021 in what appeared to be his final season in the league.
Brady will want to go out on top of the mountain and the Bucs will hope he is not about to hit the cliff, with two of his greatest rivals having carried on long past their peak.
Quit While You're Ahead
Given the four Super Bowls they share evenly between them and the prominent role they have played in football in this century, it is quite remarkable to see Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning so low in the spread value rankings.
Roethlisberger is 37th while Manning is way down in 67th, spots that belie their first-ballot Hall of Fame resumes.
But it's the weighting towards recent seasons that goes against Roethlisberger and Manning, both bowing out from pro football on the back of dreadful individual campaigns.
No quarterback with at least 300 attempts in expected passing situations had a worse EVE than Manning in 2015, when he was briefly benched for Brock Osweiler. In his defence, the end came extremely quickly for Manning following an MVP season in 2013 and a Pro Bowl campaign in 2014 and he still managed to do enough to go out by winning a Lombardi Trophy with the Broncos.
Roethlisberger's awful 2021 was easier to forecast, his mobility and ability to push the ball downfield already having waned before he posted the worst EVE of his career in his final season.
By contrast, Tony Romo called it a career in 2017, but his last full season as a starter was in 2014 when he was seventh in EVE. The former Dallas Cowboy stands sixth in spread value as a result.
Brady's play and his efficiency numbers from his two seasons with the Buccaneers suggest he is more likely to replicate Romo, who may well be his inspiration when he heads into his post-playing career.
Giants releasing embattled quarterback Daniel Jones
The Daniel Jones era in New York has officially ended.
The Giants agreed to Jones’ request to be released Friday morning, ending a rocky partnership that lasted nearly six seasons.
Giants president John Mara said in a statement that Jones’ release “would be best for him and for the team.”
“Daniel has been a great representative of our organisation, first class in every way,” Mara said in the statement. “His handling of this situation yesterday exemplifies just that. We are all disappointed in how things have worked out.”
The Giants benched Jones in favour of Tommy DeVito during their bye week. On Thursday, Jones told reporters he takes “full responsibility” for not winning more as the captain of one of the NFL’s signature franchises.
After learning of his new role, however, Jones asked the team to be released.
Jones signed a four-year, $160million contract extension before the 2023 season. Jones will go through the waivers process, but teams are likely unwilling to pay the rest of that contract. If he clears waivers, he will become an unrestricted free agent.
The Giants will absorb a salary cap hit of around $20million by releasing Jones.
Jones was the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft and has started 69 games over the last six seasons.
The former Duke quarterback had his best season in a contract year in 2022, throwing 15 touchdowns to just five interceptions and adding 708 yards and seven scores on the ground.
Jones has thrown eight touchdown passes and seven interceptions this season for the 2-8 Giants and ranks 32nd among qualified quarterbacks with a 79.4 passer rating.
'Super simple' – Lille president rules out January exit for Jonathan David
Lille president Olivier Letang has categorically ruled out a January exit for forward Jonathan David amid links with a number of European clubs.
David is out of contract at the end of the season and has been touted as a target for the likes of Bayern Munich, Juventus and Barcelona.
Speaking this week, the Canada international named Barcelona as his "dream" club but suggested he would prefer not to leave Lille mid-season.
And in an interview with After Foot RMC, Letang confirmed no bids have yet been tabled ahead of the January window.
"We are not going to sell him in January, and we have not received any offer for him," he said.
"Jonathan's situation is super simple. We are very happy to have him with us.
"Last season he had one more year left on his contract. We were trying to qualify for the Champions League.
"You have a guy who scores 20 to 25 goals a season. We had no obligation to sell him."
David is into his fifth season with Lille and has scored 97 goals in 202 games for the Ligue 1 side in all competitions while assisting a further 18.
Seven of those goals have arrived in 11 appearances this term, including in Champions League games against Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Juventus.
The 24-year-old's best league season with Lille saw him score 24 goals in 2022-23, while he has netted 19, 15 and 13 in the other full campaigns.
Lille chief Letang reiterated that David has been offered a new deal to stay on at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, but selling him has never been an option.
"He is a player who scores between 20 and 25 goals and helps us qualify for the Champions League," he said.
"Plus, Jonathan loves Lille, which is his club. Our position was very clear from the beginning – we think of the athlete.
"Obviously, he already has an offer that is in his hands, the ball is in his court."
Browns score late touchdown to end Steelers' streak in snowy contest
Nick Chubb ran for a 2-yard touchdown in heavy snow with 57 seconds left, and the Cleveland Browns stunned division rival Pittsburgh 24-19 on Thursday night, ending the Steelers' five-game winning streak.
Chubb's score came in his first game against the AFC North-leading Steelers (8-3) since the running back sustained a season-ending left knee injury on a carry last year at Pittsburgh.
The Browns (3-8) had blown a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter and were down 19-18 before getting the ball back with 3:22 remaining after Pittsburgh punter Corliss Waitman shanked a 16-yarder.
With snow piling up and covering the yard lines on the field, Cleveland's Jameis Winston completed a third-down pass to Jerry Jeudy to the Pittsburgh 9. Two plays later, Chubb barrelled into the end zone.
The Steelers had one last chance, but quarterback Russell Wilson's Hail Mary on the final play was knocked down by Browns safety Grant Delpit in the end zone, touching off a wild celebration at Huntington Bank Field.
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