There is a neat statistical symmetry that suggests the 2023 Rugby World Cup might be won by Ireland or France.
Since the sport’s world rankings were launched 20 years ago, all five subsequent world champions were either ranked first or fourth close to the tournament kicking off.
Ireland and France occupied those positions during recent weeks, and neither nation has previously been crowned world champions, with no new name being engraved on the trophy since England in 2003.
It is, of course, way more complicated than that to confidently suggest a winner but such a scenario underlines what many believe is a wide-open tournament.
In the World Cup’s 36-year history, only four countries – New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and England – have triumphed.
Six Nations champions Ireland and France can be added to the mix this time around, though, as genuine contenders, although a World Cup draw carried out in December 2020 has generated a serious imbalance with tournament heavyweights South Africa, New Zealand, Ireland and France all in its top half.
While those teams are on a quarter-final collision course in Paris, the best of the rest would point to Australia, Argentina, England and Wales.
There is real potential for the World Cup final to be a one-sided affair, which is not being critical of any participant, but more questioning why such an important draw is conducted so long before the competition.
France and New Zealand are in the same pool, while Ireland, South Africa and a dangerous Scotland team have been grouped together. Elsewhere, Pool C sees Australia, Wales and Fiji in direct competition, with England, Argentina and Japan the main Pool D protagonists.
France meet the All Blacks, who are reeling from their all-time record defeat of 35-7 in a warm-up fixture against South Africa, in a mouthwatering tournament opener.
The 40-match pool phase will be played out across nine host cities – Paris, Marseille, Nice, Bordeaux, Toulouse, Lyon, Lille, Saint-Etienne and Nantes – with £2.5million tickets sold.
It can only be hoped that France 2023 will be remembered for the rugby on show, with inevitable disciplinary matters not overshadowing it.
High tackles, foul play, red cards, yellow cards and disciplinary hearings will be part of it all. Coaches will want consistency, too, on punishments handed out by disciplinary chiefs – England captain Owen Farrell’s recent case highlighting that need – and all matters being efficiently and promptly dealt with.
If rugby is to be the winner, then it will require a host of superstar names to lead the way.
And that prospect is one to savour, given the presence of players such as France captain Antoine Dupont, South African backs Cheslin Kolbe and Canan Moodie, New Zealand full-back Beauden Barrett, Ireland’s current world player of the year Josh van der Flier, genial Fiji centre Semi Radradra and exciting Italian star Ange Capuozo.
The ingredients are all there for a genuine showcase of rugby at its finest, with some thunderous games in store and potentially memories to last a lifetime.
If France can cope with the enormous host nation pressure that will accompany them, then a magnificent first World Cup triumph for Dupont’s team would be one to savour.
There is a small queue forming behind them, though, potentially led by a South African squad that appears primed to successfully defend the world crown.
Gatland 'still the best coach in the world', says Wales assistant Howley
Wales assistant Rob Howley described Warren Gatland as the "world's best coach" and insists the under-fire boss is going nowhere.
Wales have lost each of their last 11 Test matches, their longest ever run in men’s rugby, overtaking a 10-game stretch between November 2002 and August 2003.
Their most recent defeat came by 32 points (20-52 v Australia), their heaviest loss since a 36-point thrashing at home to South Africa in August last year (16-52).
And it is not going to get any easier with world champions South Africa the visitors to the Principality Stadium on Saturday for Wales' Autumn Nations Series finale.
South Africa have emerged victorious in six of their last seven Tests against Wales (L1) and have also won each of their last three games against Wales by margins of 16+ points.
Another triumph would see Wales going the calendar year without winning a Test, which has not happened since 1937, though Howley has no doubt that Wales are in safe hands.
"We've got the best coach in the world who has had a legacy of more than 13 years," said Howley.
"He's won Grand Slams and there is no better coach to have in your camp than Warren. He gives players the confidence and self-belief they need to go out and play."
During Gatland's first stint in charge from 2008 to 2019, Wales were World Cup semi-finalists, Six Nations champions and Grand Slam winners.
This time around, amid far more challenging circumstances and attempting to mould a new squad, Wales have won just six out of his 23 Tests at the helm.
Wales have also won just one of their last 11 Test matches at the Principality Stadium, last winning in Cardiff against Argentina in November 2023.
Howley was asked if he would take an interim head coach job if Gatland departed, but responded defiantly by saying, "Warren Gatland won't leave".
Howley insists Gatland's experiences can help turn Wales around, saying: "Warren is a hugely respected coach and has coached over a number of years.
"His legacy with different teams is a winning legacy. At the moment, we are in this spell where we are losing.
"We at some point know we will win, and I hope it will be the next game on Saturday. I think at the moment we've got the best coach who has got years of experience.
"We've been in changing rooms where we've won and lost, Lions changing rooms going into the series at 1-1 with everything on the line.
"He understands rugby, and I believe Wales have got the best coach in the world to get us out of this."
Farrell backs 'composed' Prendergast to shine on first Ireland start
Andy Farrell believes Sam Prendergast is ready to step up ahead of his first Ireland start against Fiji at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday.
Farrell has made seven changes to his team, handing first caps to Leinster's Gus McCarthy and Ulster's Cormac Izuchukwu for the penultimate game of the Autumn Nations Series.
The Ireland head coach has handed Prendergast the number 10 jersey for the first time after he was used off the bench in the closing stages of last week's win over Argentina.
Prendergast has only started eight games for Leinster, but Farrell had no hesitation in handing him a first start after he impressed on the Emerging Ireland tour of South Africa.
"I'm confident from what we've seen. We took him on the Emerging [Ireland] and he played in all of those games," said Farrell.
"The aim of that was to grab hold of that team and make sure that he treated it like it was his own, as though he was in charge, and he did that in spades.
"This week we've seen the benefit of that, but we need to see it transfer, obviously.
"Yes, his character is composed, confident but yet not over-confident. He's assertive in what he wants, and he has a nice way about how he goes about his business.”
Farrell also had a glowing review for Izuchukwu, saying: "Izzy has been in and around the squad for a while. The first Emerging Ireland tour was when we first came across his ability, his athleticism, his point of difference.
"That was a couple of years ago but the improvement in his maturity of his game, because he was young in the 15-a-side game when the first tour was on, but the difference between the first and second tour was like chalk and cheese.
"His ability and potential with that maturity, he deserves a shot to show us all what he's got."
On McCarthy, who captained the Ireland Under-20s to a Six Nations Grand Slam in 2023, Farrell said: "He's been a captain and you can see why because his maturity in how he goes about the game."
He added: "We took him on the training week [to Portugal] as a development player and he showed up unbelievably well. He forced our hand to keep him in the squad first and foremost and he deserves a shot to see what he can do as well."
Ciaran Frawley also returns to the bench after missing out last weekend on the back of a poor outing against New Zealand.
And Cian Healy must wait another week for a record-breaking 134th cap - having drawn level with Brian O'Driscoll against Argentina - after the prop was left out of the 23.
Ireland team to play Fiji
Jamie Osborne; Mack Hansen, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, Jacob Stockdale; Sam Prendergast, Craig Casey; Andrew Porter, Gus McCarthy, Finlay Bealham; Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Beirne; Cormac Izuchukwu, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt).
Replacements: Rob Herring, Tom O'Toole, Thomas Clarkson, Iain Henderson, Cian Prendergast, Conor Murray, Ciaran Frawley, Stuart McCloskey.
'World-class' Scotland will provide Wallabies' sternest test – Skelton
Australia will face their sternest test to date when they continue their autumn tour against a "world-class" Scotland team at Murrayfield on Sunday.
That is the view of forward Will Skelton, who believes the Wallabies' victories in England and Wales have brought a new energy and confidence to their camp.
Having crashed out in the pool stage at last year's World Cup in France before finishing last in the Rugby Championship, Australia have looked a team reborn in recent weeks.
A first victory at Twickenham since 2015 and a 52-20 rout of Wales – their biggest-ever away win in matches between the teams – have made it an excellent tour to date for Joe Schmidt's side.
But La Rochelle lock Skelton feels their toughest assignment is to come this week, saying: "We've won two games, we're very aware of that.
"The Test against Scotland is going to be the hardest one yet. We're excited about this weekend and we're looking forward to ripping into it.
"Physically they're up there with the top five in the world. I think set-piece wise they're really strong.
"You've got a guy like Finn Russell who's a maestro at the back there. I think it's going be a close one and we'll be up for it.
"There's some class players in the Scottish team and, when they're at it they're world-class, so we're going to have to be on top of our game."
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