There is a neat statistical symmetry that suggests the 2023 Rugby World Cup might be won by Ireland or France.
Since the sport’s world rankings were launched 20 years ago, all five subsequent world champions were either ranked first or fourth close to the tournament kicking off.
Ireland and France occupied those positions during recent weeks, and neither nation has previously been crowned world champions, with no new name being engraved on the trophy since England in 2003.
It is, of course, way more complicated than that to confidently suggest a winner but such a scenario underlines what many believe is a wide-open tournament.
In the World Cup’s 36-year history, only four countries – New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and England – have triumphed.
Six Nations champions Ireland and France can be added to the mix this time around, though, as genuine contenders, although a World Cup draw carried out in December 2020 has generated a serious imbalance with tournament heavyweights South Africa, New Zealand, Ireland and France all in its top half.
While those teams are on a quarter-final collision course in Paris, the best of the rest would point to Australia, Argentina, England and Wales.
There is real potential for the World Cup final to be a one-sided affair, which is not being critical of any participant, but more questioning why such an important draw is conducted so long before the competition.
France and New Zealand are in the same pool, while Ireland, South Africa and a dangerous Scotland team have been grouped together. Elsewhere, Pool C sees Australia, Wales and Fiji in direct competition, with England, Argentina and Japan the main Pool D protagonists.
France meet the All Blacks, who are reeling from their all-time record defeat of 35-7 in a warm-up fixture against South Africa, in a mouthwatering tournament opener.
The 40-match pool phase will be played out across nine host cities – Paris, Marseille, Nice, Bordeaux, Toulouse, Lyon, Lille, Saint-Etienne and Nantes – with £2.5million tickets sold.
It can only be hoped that France 2023 will be remembered for the rugby on show, with inevitable disciplinary matters not overshadowing it.
High tackles, foul play, red cards, yellow cards and disciplinary hearings will be part of it all. Coaches will want consistency, too, on punishments handed out by disciplinary chiefs – England captain Owen Farrell’s recent case highlighting that need – and all matters being efficiently and promptly dealt with.
If rugby is to be the winner, then it will require a host of superstar names to lead the way.
And that prospect is one to savour, given the presence of players such as France captain Antoine Dupont, South African backs Cheslin Kolbe and Canan Moodie, New Zealand full-back Beauden Barrett, Ireland’s current world player of the year Josh van der Flier, genial Fiji centre Semi Radradra and exciting Italian star Ange Capuozo.
The ingredients are all there for a genuine showcase of rugby at its finest, with some thunderous games in store and potentially memories to last a lifetime.
If France can cope with the enormous host nation pressure that will accompany them, then a magnificent first World Cup triumph for Dupont’s team would be one to savour.
There is a small queue forming behind them, though, potentially led by a South African squad that appears primed to successfully defend the world crown.
Smith not pinning blame on Ford for England loss
Marcus Smith does not blame England's narrow defeat to New Zealand on Saturday on George Ford, despite his late missed kicks.
Ford replaced Smith, who had scored 17 points and set up England's only try in their 24-22 loss, hitting a potential match-winning penalty against the post before narrowly missing a drop goal.
England had held an eight-point advantage when Smith left the field, but Mark Tele'a's 76th-minute try before Damian McKenzie added five late points proved enough to get the All Blacks over the line.
The hosts' autumn series got off to a losing start as Ford struggled to find his clinical edge in the dying moments, but Smith does not lay any blame at his team-mate's feet.
"Sometimes that's the life of a kicker, we've all experienced that. It's part and parcel of the job," said Smith.
"I've learned so much off George. He's an unbelievable kicker, both off the tee and out of hand. It was one of those days.
"It's nothing to do with him why we didn't win the game. It's a team effort. Every kicker in the world has experienced that.
"We practise [drop-goals] as kickers every single day, but sometimes it doesn't go for you. We're all human and people miss."
Saturday marked a third consecutive narrow loss to New Zealand for England, with their last win an emphatic victory over Japan in June.
Despite that run, Smith remains confident that England can take lessons from these defeats to set themselves up for success in the future.
"International rugby is very different to the Premiership and the experiences we're experiencing now are very painful, but we'll be better for them," Smith added.
"Keep the faith. We've fallen again on the wrong side of the result, but we'll learn from it 100%.
"These experiences will tighten us as a group, and it will be worth it in the long run. We will be better for it."
England 'banging on the door' of rugby's elite, says proud Borthwick
Steve Borthwick reckons England are "banging on the door" of the elite nations after their close loss to New Zealand.
England went down 24-22 to the All Blacks in Saturday's Test match at Twickenham.
Mark Tele'a scored the decisive try for New Zealand, who beat England twice in July, in the 76th minute.
England missed the chance to win it late on when George Ford missed a drop-goal attempt, after he had struck the post with a penalty.
But coach Borthwick, who was immensely proud of his team, feels England showed they are capable of mixing it with the best teams in the world, despite losing four of their last five Tests.
"It is a mixture of immense pride at the performance against a very tough New Zealand team and one of incredible disappointment," Borthwick told BBC Radio 5 Live.
"They are the emotions we balance and will work through over the next few days.
"When we started two years ago we wanted to get England right to the top of world rugby again. You can see the team banging on the door."
With the pre-match build-up having been dominated by Joe Marler's jibe at New Zealand's pre-match haka routine, tries from Tele'a and Will Jordan put New Zealand in control.
Marcus Smith's penalties kept England in contention, though, and he set up the hosts' only try when he intercepted a loose pass and teed up Immanuel Feyi-Waboso.
Yet England ultimately failed to hold on to an eight-point advantage, with Ford having to be consoled by his team-mates after the match.
Next up for England are Australia, with fixtures against South Africa and Japan also in store.
"We really have to find a way of winning these close ones," said captain Jamie George. "We put ourselves in a really good position after 60 minutes.
"Eight points is a lot in Test match rugby but we probably went chasing the game a bit and gave away too many penalties. We have to be smarter in that respect."
England walked up to the halfway line to face the haka, something George explained was planned prior to Marler's comments.
"That was always our plan before Joe's comments but we did it in a respectful way," said George. "I saw a smile on Scott Barrett’s face, I was smiling, and it was done in good spirits."
England aiming to be one of 'world's best' teams, says Earl
England have aspirations of greatness, asserted Ben Earl as he prepares to face New Zealand in a friendly at Twickenham.
The 26-year-old was optimistic about the progress England had made under Steve Borthwick despite registering two losses at the hands of the All Blacks in July.
England will be seeking revenge after losing the second match of the test in a devastatingly close 16-15 defeat. Immanuel Feyi-Waboso had scored a try to put England ahead after scores had been tied 10-10 at half-time, but two penalty kicks from Damian McKenzie ended their hopes.
Earl, however, believes the heartbreak has given his country an opportunity to develop.
“I think it’s an experience all the big teams go through, you have to go through some heartache to get over the line,” he told TNT Sports.
“It just feels like it’s the evolution of all the top teams, and we are a team that wants to be known as a great team, some of the world’s best.
“So we know the heartache is good for a while, but it’s time to go and do it at the right time. We got a glimpse of it against Ireland last year, and we feel we are due one, and we have learnt some really hard lessons over the summer, so we feel we are in a better place for it.
“We have always said you don’t win easily against us and that’s something we have developed over the last 18 months with Steve’s mindset and the boys getting hold of it, and now I feel it’s time to get over the line in one of these big games.”
New Zealand have won their last three matches, having defeated Japan and secured a double over Australia. They struggled against reigning world champions South Africa, however, as they failed to exact revenge on the Springboks in late summer tests falling to defeat twice.
Undoubtedly, the All Blacks still represent some of the best talent in the world, with Earl expected to line up opposite New Zealand’s superstar Wallace Sititi.
“There’s stardust littered all over the pitch isn’t there? There’s some pretty cool match-ups; it just feels like a game that isn’t going to disappoint,” he said.
England won’t be overawed, though. Instead, they aim to make their west London home a fortress for visiting sides to travel to.
“[Twickenham is] a place where we want to be really, really hard to beat. And we’ve always said in the camp, if you want to beat us at Twickenham you are going to have to be over and above the norm,” Earl said.
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