ATP

Auger-Aliassime survives Estoril scare as Ruud progresses in Munich

By Sports Desk April 28, 2022

Felix Auger-Aliassime survived an early scare to reach the Estoril Open quarter-finals with victory over Carlos Taberner on Thursday.

The top seed is targeting a second title of 2022, having already triumphed in Rotterdam earlier in the campaign.

However, his quest looked in doubt when Taberner dominated the opening set 6-1.

But the world number 10 responded in equally commanding fashion; controlling the next two sets to prevail a 1-6 6-2 6-2 victor.

Auger-Aliassime, who also overcame Taberner in Barcelona last week, will play Sebastian Korda in the last eight after the American beat Benjamin Bonzi 6-3 6-3.

Meanwhile, Santiago finalist Sebastian Baez is through to his third quarter-final of 2022. The world number 59 recovered from a set down to deny third seed Marin Cilic 1-6 6-1 6-4.

Richard Gasquet awaits after the 2015 champion beat Hugo Dellien 7-6 (7-5) 6-2.

Over in Munich, second seed Casper Ruud took a while to find his groove before overcoming Slovakia's Alex Molcan 3-6 6-4 6-4.

Following Alexander Zverev's exit on Wednesday, the Norwegian is the highest remaining seed and is targeting a second title of the season having triumphed in Buenos Aires two months ago.

Next up for him is Botic van de Zandschulp, who won 86 per cent of his points on first serve as he defeated Egor Gerasimov 6-2 6-3.

Meanwhile, Oscar Otte stunned third seed Reilly Opelka 7-6 (7-4) 6-2 to reach his second quarter-final in as many weeks, having also reached that stage in Belgrade.

The German will play Cordoba runner-up Alejandro Tabilo, who advanced following the retirement of opponent Hugo Gaston through injury. 

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  • ATP Finals: Sinner completes perfect group stage with Medvedev win ATP Finals: Sinner completes perfect group stage with Medvedev win

    Jannik Sinner made it three wins from as many matches at the ATP Finals with a routine victory over Daniil Medvedev in his final group-stage outing.

    Sinner topped the Ilie Nastase Group and reached the last four with a perfect 3-0 record for the second season in a row, beating Medvedev 6-3 6-4 in 75 minutes.

    After a late break saw Sinner take the first set, Medvedev threatened a fightback by reeling off three straight games in the second, only to immediately concede another break.

    Speaking after the win, his eighth in 15 all-time meetings with Medvedev, Sinner credited his opponent for posing a tactical challenge.

    "I'm trying to find new ways to improve as a player," Sinner said. "I'm trying to win as many matches here as I can. Me and Daniil, we know each other very well. 

    "So, every time we step on court, we try to change something tactically. I felt like I was ready to see what he was going to do today.

    "I know what I have achieved during this year, so I try to step on court with a good mindset. I have beautiful people around me who support me daily, which for me is really important."

    Data Debrief: Sinner targeting exclusive club

    Sinner's victory ensured smooth passage to the next round, as he bids to replicate the achievements of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic, the only previous players to win the Australian Open, US Open and ATP Finals in the same season.

    The win – Sinner's ninth in a row – saw him draw level with Alexander Zverev for the most victories on the ATP Tour this year, with 68. They are the first duo to both record at least 50 in a single year since Djokovic (82) and Andy Murray (51) in 2015.

  • WSL title race: Man City out to halt Bompastor's perfect Chelsea start WSL title race: Man City out to halt Bompastor's perfect Chelsea start

    This weekend brings the match everyone has been waiting for the Women's Super League.

    Stamford Bridge will be the stage as Chelsea host Manchester City on Saturday in a heavyweight tussle that promises to give fans an early indication of where the title may be heading this season. 

    Sonia Bompastor has started her Chelsea tenure emphatically, and she could become the first manager to win each of their first seven games in the WSL. If she felt any pressure when stepping into Emma Hayes' shoes, she certainly is not showing it.

    Chelsea have been in hot form in front of goal this term, scoring 23 goals across their first six games, having played one less than Manchester City due to their clash with Manchester United – who are also unbeaten – being rescheduled for next week. 

    The Blues' confidence will be sky-high going into this crucial double-header against the Manchester clubs, having maintained their unbeaten record across all competitions under Bompastor by overcoming Celtic in the Women's Champions League on Wednesday.

    Chelsea also have a strong record in this fixture. They have won four of their last five home games against City in the WSL, though they did lose their most recent such game 1-0 back in February, so Gareth Taylor's visitors will think they have a chance.  

    Man City sit top of the table and will not want to relinquish their advantage at the summit, and while last year's away victory over Chelsea was rare, they are unbeaten in their last three WSL meetings with the Blues, with two wins. 

    Overall, only Arsenal (10) have recorded more wins over them in the competition than City's seven, and another would represent a real statement of their title intent.

    Goals win Games… and Titles

    With the last title race coming down to goal difference in the final game of the season, City are clearly haunted by their inability to get across the line. Taylor and his players are determined not to see a repeat of that heartbreaking near miss in 2024-25.

    The City head coach told Opta Analyst exclusively in pre-season: "You would be surprised how strong it makes you and how mentally determined you become.

    "Of course, we will use that frustration, disappointment, to really use it as energy for this season."

    Banishing that nightmare is high on their agenda. They have scored 16 goals in just seven matches this season (2.2 per game), but this still represents a marginal underperformance of their underlying figures, given they have generated 16.59 xG (2.37 xG per game).

    However, if we compare City's attacking output to that from last season, it is clear they have endured a drop-off. In the WSL in 2023-24, City averaged 2.77 goals and 2.19 xG per game. Though they were eclipsed by Hayes' free-scoring Chelsea, they took more of their chances than anticipated based on the quality of opportunities they created.

    City successfully got 183 of their 423 shots on target last term (43.2%), whereas this season they have hit the target with 47 of their 125 attempts (37.6%). Their shot conversion rate has also dropped from 14.4% to 12.8% and their big-chance conversion rate has fallen from 41.67% (30/72) to 37.04% (10/27). 

     

    So there is still work to do for City if they are to match Chelsea's pace, with the Blues already boasting a goal difference eight better than that of their rivals.

    City might be able to point to some misfortune on that front, though, as their total xG figure is the highest in the league so far this term.

    With 23 goals, Chelsea have greatly overperformed their 13.76 xG, with that +9.24 overperformance by far the biggest in the competition. The Blues have been incredibly efficient, having the most shots on target (48) in the competition – one more than Man City (47) despite having 15 fewer shots overall. 

    The Blues' big-chance conversion rate of 60.87% is also the best in the WSL (14/23), as is their shot conversion rate (20.91%). By contrast, City's 12.8% shot conversion rate ranks fourth.

    Chelsea may have relied on Lauren James, Sam Kerr and Fran Kirby to provide the goals in previous seasons, but they have become a very different proposition under Bompastor. They have had 13 different goalscorers in the WSL this season, while City have only had six, ranking fourth, also behind Tottenham (eight) and Arsenal (seven).

    Shaw's Golden Touch 

    While City have not matched Chelsea's ruthlessness this season, that does not apply to last season's Golden Boot winner, Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw.

    She has seven goals in as many games this season, overperforming her league-high xG figure of 4.83 xG, and also leads the competition for shots (28) and shots on target (12).

    Shaw has been presented with nine big chances and has converted five of them, which is the highest conversion rate (55.56%) of the 13 players to have had more than three such opportunities in the league this term.

    Of players to have had at least 10 shots in the WSL, she also has the joint-best shot conversion rate (25%) – level with Nikita Parris (three goals from 12 shots) and Johanna Rytting Kaneryd (three goals from 12 shots).

    Since the beginning of last season, meanwhile, Shaw has scored 28 goals, at least 13 more than any other player in the competition (Elisabeth Terland is next on 15). 

     

    City were hoping their reliance on Shaw would be lessened when they swooped for the WSL's all-time leading scorer in Vivianne Miedema, but a recurring knee issue has left the former Arsenal star on the sidelines once more. Prior to her latest injury setback, Miedema had scored two goals in five games in all competitions for City.

    Shaw will have support from elsewhere, though. Lauren Hemp recently became the youngest player in WSL history to reach 50 goals and also leads the way for assists (five) and chances created (26) in the competition this season.

    However, despite her outstanding creative metrics, Hemp has underperformed her 3.26 xG, scoring twice from opportunities that should have resulted in at least one more goal.

    Hemp has struggled to convert her big chances this term, only putting away two of the eight that have fallen their way, though both Jessica Park (two goals from 1.79 xG) and Jill Roord (three goals from 2.34 xG) should offer more support to Shaw.

    New Boss, New Look

    It is fair to say Bompastor has taken to the Chelsea job like a duck to water, becoming just the second WSL manager to win her first six games at a new club, after Jonas Eidevall with Arsenal. No boss has ever started with seven consecutive WSL wins.

    The French coach has made a couple of key tweaks to Hayes' setup. Guro Reiten has been one major beneficiary, operating predominantly from a left-wing role (where she has played 68% of her minutes) but also being fielded centrally on occasion. 

     

    Reiten is Chelsea's leading scorer with four goals in six games, overperforming her 3.0 xG, while she also leads the Blues for shots (18) and chances created (12), providing two assists.
     
    Chelsea's young talent has also come to the fore under their new boss. Aggie Beever-Jones is having a big impact despite only making two WSL starts, netting three times.

    Only Reiten has had more shots than Beever-Jones' 14, while no Chelsea player has hit the target as many times as she has (nine). Beever-Jones has had a knack for being in the right place at the right time, converting two of her four big chances and averaging a goal every 83 minutes.
     
    Another player to find a new lease of life under Bompastor is Rytting Kaneryd, who leads all Chelsea players for goal contributions (five). The Sweden international also leads all of her team-mates for involvements in open-play shot-ending sequences, with 33.
     
    Sjoeke Nusken has also been particularly influential on both sides of the ball, creating 11 chances in open play while also attempting (20) and winning (13) more tackles than any of her team-mates.

     

    Timing is Everything

    One theme of Chelsea's season has been their ability to come out of the blocks fast and bury opponents early on, such as when they netted twice in the first 16 minutes of their 2-1 win at Arsenal. The Blues have scored 11 first-half goals in the WSL this season, more than any other team. Their 7.28 first-half xG is also the highest in the league, beating City's 6.78.

    Given their overall tally of 23 goals, it is no surprise that Chelsea have also scored the most second-half goals (12), with City second with 10. City have, however, been notably stronger in the second periods of games – often requiring late goals to earn results – and have the highest second-half xG (9.8), with Chelsea's second-half xG down at 6.5.

    So, Chelsea are often faster starters, but must be aware of City's ability to pull results out of the fire. Saturday's visitors have gained the most points from losing positions in the WSL this term (seven). Chelsea have not gained any points from losing positions, though that is, of course, because they are yet to trail at any point.

    After Chelsea's magnificent start to the campaign, the Opta supercomputer still views them as hot favourites to retain their crown. The Blues are given a huge 79.3% chance of winning the title compared to City's 19.9%, with Taylor's team finishing second again in 66.8% of our 2024-25 season simulations.

     

    The significance of this game, though, means those figures could drastically change after Saturday. Bompastor's team are given a 53.7% chance of emerging victorious, while City's hope of victory are rated at 22.5%.

    City would surely be content with a draw on the road, which would halt Chelsea's winning streak and maintain their advantage at the summit, and 23.7% of the supercomputer's pre-match simulations finished all square. 

  • ATP Finals: Comeback win keeps Fritz in semi-final contention ATP Finals: Comeback win keeps Fritz in semi-final contention

    Taylor Fritz has put himself in a strong position to make it to the ATP Finals semis after a comeback win against Alex de Minaur.

    Fritz rallied in three sets to triumph 5-7 6-4 6-3 in just over two hours, sealing De Minaur's fate, as he crashed out having failed to win a match.

    The Australian made a strong start as he attempted to overturn the odds to reach the semi-finals in his maiden tournament and took control with a break late on, winning the final three games of the first set to take an early advantage.

    Fritz fought back, protecting his serve in the opening game before finding his edge late on, and though De Minaur valiantly defended two set points, he could not prevent a decider.

    The American eased into cruise control after that, taking a 4-1 lead with a three-game winning streak, from which he did not look back.

    "Even though I won the match I feel like there wasn't necessarily any moments when I changed too much," Fritz said.

    "He was all over me when I did a great job, but towards the end of the second set, I began to find my serve and I started serving much better.

    "When I wasn't creating the first serves, he was just killing me from the baseline. It just gave me a little bit of comfort to just stay in the match and not be under so much pressure all the time. It was still incredibly tough."

    His attention now turns to the late match in the Ilie Nastase Group between Jannik Sinner, who has already progressed to the final four, and Daniil Medvedev. The Russian must win in straight sets to progress, but if he drops a set or loses, Fritz will advance along with the world number one. 

    Data Debrief: On the brink

    Any further involvement at the ATP Finals for Fritz may hinge on favours from elsewhere, but he worked hard on Thursday to put himself within touching distance of the semi-finals for the second time.

    He struggled against the big serves of De Minaur, whose aggressive approach saw him outhit Fritz with 12 winners to seven, though he could not translate it into a win.

    It means that Fritz (nine) is the first American player to register 9+ wins against top-10 opponents in a single season since Pete Sampras (10) and Andre Agassi (12) in 1999.

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