Novak Djokovic has won the last three Australian Open titles and lifted the trophy nine times in all, which means he arrived in Melbourne as a hot favourite to triumph again.
Yet even before the chaos of the last 10 days, this looked a tough Australian Open for Djokovic, given the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev have recently taken his scalp in major hard-court matches.
There was no doubt he was a worthy favourite, but Djokovic's dominance of the first half of last season was followed by a series of painful defeats, weakening his standing at the top of the game.
When the men's singles draw was made on Thursday, only two former champions featured: Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, the 2009 winner.
Here, Stats Perform assesses the contenders to follow Djokovic onto the Melbourne Park throne.
NEXT NUMBER ONE? DANIIL MEDVEDEV
Last year's runner-up, given a sound pasting by Djokovic in a final that came nowhere close to matching expectations, has come a long way since that crushing blow. Russian Medvedev was the only man to beat Djokovic in a grand slam last year, doing so at the final hurdle of the final major, without dropping a set in the US Open title match. That denied Djokovic a calendar year sweep of the majors, which would have been the first time the feat had been achieved by a man since Rod Laver's 1969 complete set.
He also took the first set off Djokovic in the Paris Masters final in November, only to lose the match. What is clear is that Medvedev is amassing experiences against Djokovic: some good and some bad, but all surely massively helpful. He lost in their first three encounters but has won four of the seven since.
Progress like this is what repeat champions are made of. Medvedev has a 9-9 win-loss record when dropping the first set of matches over the past year, which shows he is not easily beaten. Only Djokovic (14-6) has a better record in that respect.
Medvedev has a 54-9 record on hardcourts over the past 12 months, has gone mightily close to hitting number one in the rankings, and might see a lot of that top step in the months and years to come. On the 52-week rolling list, he holds a 16-8 win-loss record against top-10 opponents, which is second only to Djokovic (22-5).
Should Medvedev pull off a second consecutive grand slam win, it would make him just the third Russian man to win two or more grand slam singles titles, after Yevgeny Kafelnikov (French Open 1996 and Australian Open 1999) and Marat Safin (US Open 2000 and Australian Open 2005).
The last player other than Federer, Nadal and Djokovic to secure back-to-back majors was Andre Agassi (US Open 1999 and Australian Open 2000).
OVERDUE SLAM INCOMING? ALEXANDER ZVEREV
The Olympic champion and ATP Finals winner is just lacking a grand slam title to confirm to the wider sporting world his status as one of the rising generation's preeminent performers. Zverev beat Djokovic in semi-finals en route to both of those big 2021 titles, and although he also lost three times to the 20-time major winner over the season, he took four sets off the man from Belgrade in those defeats.
Zverev is improving season on season, and if he avoids injuries or other tribulations in 2022 then he surely stands a strong chance of picking up that first slam before the year is out. He won six titles in all in 2021, more than any other singles player on the ATP Tour, and holds a 43-10 win-loss record on hardcourts on the 52-week rolling list.
When the draw was made, he and Djokovic were set on another semi-final collision course, and that prospect looked tantalising. Until recently so far apart, the gap has closed considerably, Zverev tallying victories that will have surely troubled the world number one.
NOT READY TO BE YESTERDAY'S MAN: RAFAEL NADAL
Because why the heck not? Nadal, at the age of 35, returned from a long foot injury lay-off with a title at the Melbourne Summer Set tournament this month, and if his record at the Australian Open is deemed unspectacular by some, the Spaniard himself takes great pride in his achievements.
Recently, in a Melbourne news conference, he was asked why he had not reached the semi-finals of the Australian Open since his title year, and Nadal swiftly put his questioner right.
"I am very sorry to tell you – I don't want to – but I have been in the final of 2012, '14, '17, '19," he said. "I got injured a couple of times here in my tennis career, so of course it's been a great tournament for me, and of course I had a lot of challenges in terms of injuries in this event. Sorry to correct you."
Polite as ever, but pointed. Nadal knows he has been successful in Australia and would surely not have returned this year if he felt there was no chance of another run to the final. He rightly takes issue with those who forget his feats. Remember, he, like Djokovic and Federer, sits on 20 grand slams.
Nadal reached the quarter-finals last year and lost from two sets up against Stefanos Tsitsipas, so he will want to banish that memory. There is little evidence of hard-court form beyond his win in a mediocre field last week in Melbourne, but he is Rafael Nadal and he wins tennis tournaments. At least one every year since 2004. A 6-8 record against rival top-10 players over the past 52 weeks is no great shakes, but you count out Nadal at your peril.
NEXTGEN OR NEXT NEW CHAMP? JANNIK SINNER
Tennis is such a generation game just now. The Big Three (Big Four, if you include Andy Murray) are in the twilight years of their careers, coming under long-awaited threat from the mid-twenties likes of Medvedev, Zverev, Dominic Thiem (absent from Australia), Tsitsipas and Matteo Berrettini.
Sinner is to the forefront of the pack of the next big group coming through (see also: Carlos Alcaraz, Lorenzo Musetti). At 20, the Italian is entering a big year in the context of his career. By the time Djokovic turned 20, he was sixth in the world, Federer was 14th on the day he left his teenage years behind, and Nadal was second. Progress comes at different rates.
Sinner was 15th in the rankings on his last birthday, in August, but has since dipped his toes into the top 10 and currently stands 11th. He won four ATP Tour titles in 2021, finished the year with a 49-22 record, and can reasonably be expected to kick on. The Italian has yet to majorly show up at the grand slams, with a Roland Garros quarter-final in 2020 his best run yet.
Expect that to change soon enough. Sinner is only 6-9 against top-10 players on the 52-week list, but he warmed up for the challenge that lies ahead in Melbourne with three straight-sets singles victories at the ATP Cup. His 42-14 record on hardcourts over the last year suggests the Australian Open should suit him as well as any slam.
Casper Ruud and Holger Rune close on French Open rematch after third-round wins
Casper Ruud and Holger Rune are closing in on a French Open rematch after both reached the fourth round on Saturday.
The pair contested a heated late-night quarter-final 12 months ago, with Ruud triumphing in four sets before Rune accused him of a “lack of class” for celebrating in his face, something the Norwegian denied.
They have played once since, in Rome a couple of weeks ago, when Rune gained some revenge, and will be favoured to clash in the last eight once again.
View this post on InstagramRuud went on to reach his first grand slam final here last year and then repeated the feat at the US Open, although he came out on the losing side both times.
This season has been a struggle by contrast but there are signs the 24-year-old is starting to find his form and he recovered from a set down to beat China’s Zhang Zhizhen 4-6 6-4 6-1 6-4.
“My level is getting better,” said Ruud. “I still feel like there are things I can improve and I can make less errors than I have done in some moments in my matches.
“So I still feel like there is a level that I haven’t played yet that I can bring out, and I will need to bring out now going into the second week, for sure.
“I’m very happy with being through the first three matches. It’s tough. For me this year it’s been much more pressure, obviously, compared to last year.”
Last year’s tournament was Rune’s breakthrough, and the young Dane has maintained his momentum, breaking into the top 10 and twice beating Novak Djokovic.
The 20-year-old is particularly strong on clay and he swatted aside Argentinian qualifier Genaro Alberto Olivieri 6-4 6-1 6-3.
Rune has only had to play two matches so far having been given a walkover by Gael Monfils in the second round.
“Luckily I haven’t used too much unnecessary energy during the tournament so far,” he said. “I’m in the fourth round and I can play better, so it’s a good thing. But obviously the matches are going to get harder and harder from now so I have to step up also.”
Next he faces Argentina’s Francisco Cerundolo, who is through to the fourth round of a slam for the first time after upsetting eighth seed Taylor Fritz 3-6 6-3 6-4 7-5.
American Fritz was booed onto court after his shushing of the crowd on Thursday night but that had turned to cheers by the time he walked off.
Cerundolo was joined in the last 16 by countryman Tomas Etcheverry, who knocked out 15th seed Borna Coric 6-3 7-6 (5) 6-2, while 27th seed Yoshihito Nishioka ended the run of Daniil Medvedev’s conqueror Thiago Seyboth Wild in a five-set tussle.
Mirra Andreeva feared French Open disqualification for ‘really stupid move’
Mirra Andreeva admitted she feared being defaulted from the French Open during her third-round defeat by Coco Gauff in their teenage battle in Paris.
It was one of the most anticipated clashes of the tournament so far, with Gauff taking on a player younger than her for just the third time in her senior career.
Sixteen-year-old Andreeva swept through qualifying before dropping just six games in her first two rounds at her debut grand slam.
Gauff and Andreeva’s combined age is younger than Novak Djokovic, and the 19-year-old American looked like she could lose to a player her junior for the first time.
But Andreeva was unable to sustain the level she showed in winning the first set and bowed out with a 6-7 (5) 6-1 6-1 defeat.
There were moments of youthful petulance from Andreeva that she will need to stamp out, though, particularly an incident late in the tie-break when she swiped a ball angrily into the crowd.
She earned a code violation but was fortunate she did not hurt a spectator, which could have seen her disqualified.
“Right after I thought that it was a really stupid move from me, because it was not necessary to do that,” she said. “It was really bad what I did. I had thoughts like this (a potential default), but he just gave me a warning.”
The Russian is undoubtedly a player of huge potential and she more than matched Gauff during a high-class first set full of fierce shot-making and court craft.
Andreeva admitted she let her head drop, saying: “It was a tough first set. We broke each other a lot of times. I was just playing.
“It’s not enough to win one set to win a match. I was trying to play but something didn’t work out and I got disappointed, upset, and not really was thinking about the match. I was thinking about my mistakes. I went too deep in this.
“After the first set I won, I realised that I can really win this match. Then I got a little bit nervous not to lose this opportunity.”
Andreeva is limited in the number of tournaments she can play because of her age and expects her next event to be Wimbledon qualifying – providing her UK visa comes through in time.
Although Russian and Belarusian players are allowed to compete this year, Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka has also spoken about a delay in receiving her visa.
If it was not for her nationality, Andreeva could have been a strong candidate for a Wimbledon wild card based on her performance in Paris.
“I didn’t play on grass yet,” she said. “It can be my first time. I’m excited about it because I have never tried it. So, if I can go there, we will see what I can do.”
Gauff reached her first slam singles final here 12 months ago and broke into the top 10 but this season has been tricky and she will take confidence from the way she turned the match around.
Gauff knows better than anyone the position Andreeva is in, and she said: “Mirra’s super young and she has a big future. I remember I was here playing at 16 years old so she has a lot to look forward to. I’m sure you’ll see a lot more matches between us.”
The tournament lost one of its title favourites before the start of the day when Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina withdrew through illness, revealing she had been struggling with a virus for two days.
The 23-year-old appeared to be the biggest obstacle to Iga Swiatek reaching another final having won all three matches between them this season.
The world number one was in ruthless form on Philippe Chatrier, defeating an opponent 6-0 6-0 for the fourth time in her career and first at a grand slam.
China’s Wang Xinyu was the unfortunate recipient as Swiatek hit top form at Roland Garros – four of the six sets she has played so far this year have now been bagels.
Swiatek has gained a reputation for the number of sets she wins easily, and social media was awash with talk of her ‘bagel factory’.
“I don’t want to really talk about that,” said the 22-year-old. “I really get why people do that, because it’s fun and tennis is entertainment and everything. But, from the players’ point of view, I want to be respectful to my opponents.”
Meanwhile, the seventh prime-time night session on Sunday will belatedly feature a women’s match for the first time, with Sabalenka’s clash against former finalist Sloane Stephens selected for the slot.
Organisers have again come under fire after only picking one women’s match across the fortnight last year.
Rafael Nadal expected to miss five more months after surgery on his left hip
Rafael Nadal is expected to be out for five more months following surgery on his left hip.
The 22-time grand slam champion underwent the procedure on Friday evening at a clinic in Barcelona.
Nadal’s team issued an update on Saturday saying the arthroscopic procedure on his left psoas tendon went well, with the damaged areas cleaned and reinforced, while an old labrum injury was also addressed.
The Spaniard, who turned 37 on Saturday, suffered the injury at the Australian Open in January and had expected to only be out for six to eight weeks.
But repeated efforts to rehabilitate it did not work and last month Nadal announced he would miss the French Open for the first time since 2004.
This latest timescale means Nadal is almost certainly out for the rest of the season but he could potentially make his return in Australia in January.
He said last month he envisaged next year being a farewell tour after repeated injury troubles, with Nadal hoping to play at the tournaments that have meant the most to him.
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