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• ATP Finals: Will Djokovic's drop out pave the way for another Sinner-Alcaraz tussle?

  The end of the 2024 season is upon us, but before the ATP Tour wraps up until 2025, there is one final big tournament to come.

  That season finale is, of course, the ATP Finals, and it kicks off in Turin on Sunday, with eight of the world's top players vying for the prize.

  Jannik Sinner is already sure of his place as the year-end number one, but there could be movement in the rankings below him, with Alexander Zverev heading into the tournament as the newly minted world number two, ahead of Carlos Alcaraz.

  Reigning champion Novak Djokovic withdrew on Monday, meaning for the first time since 2001, none of the "big three" (Djokovic, Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer) will feature at the ATP Finals.

  Djokovic beat Sinner last year to claim his seventh ATP Finals title, which is the most times a player has won the competition.

  Sinner, fresh from triumphs at Flushing Meadows and the Shangai Masters, heads to Turin as the favourite, with an eighth title on the line, but let's look ahead to the 2024 ATP Finals with Opta's pre-tournament facts.

  Sin(ner) City

  Sinner will not only be the firm fan favourite in Turin, he will always be the favourite to claim the crown.

  The 23-year-old has already collected a Tour-leading seven titles this season, including the Australian Open and the US Open, and will be out to go one better following his loss to Djokovic in last year's final.

  Six of Sinner's victories have come on hard court, with his triumph at the Halle Open the only exception. 

  The Italian is only the fifth player aged 23 or under to win at least six Tour-level titles on hard courts in a calendar year after Jimmy Connors (1973), Ivan Lendl (1981), Pete Sampras (1994) and Federer (2004).

  Since the ATP's redistribution of ranking points in 2009, only Djokovic (2015) and Nadal (2010) have clinched the year-end number one earlier in a season than Sinner in 2024.

  He is out to become the seventh player to win the ATP Finals on home soil in the Open Era, and will be the player to beat in Turin.

  Alcaraz and Zverev scrapping for second

  Zverev comes into the tournament in excellent form, on the back of winning the Paris Masters.

  His triumph in France not only saw him move into second place in the rankings, but also saw him claim his 66th match win, which is more than any other player in 2024 (Sinner is second on 65).

  Among the qualifiers for this year's event, Zverev (14) and Daniil Medvedev (11) are the only two to have recorded 10+ match wins at the ATP Finals.

  Zverev is only 27, but he is comparatively a veteran at the ATP Finals when stacked up against the other players to have qualified for this year's event. The German will be featuring at the tournament for the seventh time.

  Since the rankings were first published in 1973, Boris Becker (four) holds the most wins over the world number one at the ATP Finals – Federer and Zverev have the next-most such wins, with three each.

  Among players with multiple matches against the world number one at the ATP Finals, Zverev (3-2) is the only player to hold a winning record.

  With Djokovic out of the picture, Alcaraz will be hoping to get back into the top two to end the year.

  Only Sinner (12) has claimed more top 10 wins in 2024 than Alcaraz (11), whose last such win came against Sinner in Beijing in September.

  Alcaraz is the only player to claim multiple wins over top-five ranked opponents on hard, grass and clay courts in consecutive seasons since the rankings were published in 1973. John McEnroe (1984) is the only other player to achieve the feat in a single year.

  The other names in the hat

  Who else will be looking for glory next week?

  Medvedev comes into the ATP Finals ranked at number four in the world. Only two players won more matches at grand slams in 2024 than the Russian (18), and they are Sinner (23) and Alcaraz (19).

  Taylor Fritz reached his first major final earlier this year, losing to Sinner at the US Open. Only two players - Zverev and Sinner - have won more matches on the Tour in 2024 than the American, who has an impressive 49-21 record.

  After qualifying for the 2022 ATP Finals, Fritz will become the first American to make multiple appearances at the event since Andy Roddick (2003, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010).

  Casper Ruud is one of only three players, along with Sinner (eight) and Alcaraz (five), to have reached at least five ATP finals this year.

  Alex de Minaur, meanwhile, will become the first Australian to appear at the ATP Finals since Lleyton Hewitt 20 years ago.

  Hewitt went on to reach the final, so there is a good omen there for his compatriot.

• WTA Finals: Swiatek suffers shock exit despite Kasatkina victory

  Iga Swiatek suffered a shock exit at the WTA Finals despite her triumph over Daria Kasatkina in Riyadh on Thursday. 

  Swiatek swept aside Kasatkina 6-1 6-0, with the Russian a late replacement for Jessica Pegula who withdrew from the tournament due to a knee injury. 

  The Pole then had to rely on Coco Gauff beating Barbora Krejcikova to reach the final four, but the Wimbledon champion came through in straight sets to send Swiatek home. 

  Swiatek won 51 of 74 points and broke Kasatkina’s serve five of six times, ending the encounter in 51 minutes, which was her shortest match this year. 

  "It was a pretty solid game. It was a good performance," said Swiatek. "I was hitting the ball really well and picking the right shorts to play faster.

  But it mattered little in the end, with Swiatek revealing she was unaware of the scenario surrounding her progression to the semi-finals. 

  “Honestly, I don’t think it matters. Like we go out on court to win every match anyway. I was not thinking about that. I did not know that was the case," she added. 

  “I’m professional enough to always give 100 percent, no matter what the stakes are."

  Swiatek, though, became the third player in the 2000's to win 10 or more matches against top-10 opponents for three consecutive seasons, after Serena Williams (2012-2014) and Venus Williams (2000-2002). 

  But the day belonged to Krejcikova, who topped the Orange Group after extending her unbeaten run to two matches over Gauff. 

  The Czech emerged a 7-5 6-4 victor in just under two hours, saving 11 of the 12 break points she faced against the American to book her place in the semi-finals. 

  The world number 13 became the lowest-ranked player to make the semi-finals at the WTA Finals since Sandrine Testud (ranked 14th) in 2001.

  "I think the calmness that I have in myself is key. I was ready to enjoy and excited. I had nothing to lose," Krejcikova said. 

  "I mean obviously it was difficult. I was just more strict with my game and that was the key today.

  "It's very tough to say because before the tournament, I was dealing with some issues and didn't know what to expect.

  "I tried to stay positive and knew I was going to fight to the end.

  "I faced Zheng last year, she is playing great and had a great season and it is going to be really difficult but I have nothing to lose and I am just going to try and play my best tennis."

  Krejcikova will now face Zheng Qinwen, who came second in the Purple Group, while Gauff will take on world number one Aryna Sabalenka in the other match. 

• The Numbers Game: Can Chelsea dent title hopes of misfiring Gunners?

  Ten matches into the Premier League season, Arsenal's hopes of ending their long wait for a league title are already in danger.

  Last week's 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United made it just seven points from five games, and they now trail leaders Liverpool by seven points.

  Injuries and suspensions have taken their toll on Arteta's men, and things do not get much easier for them on Sunday, against a Chelsea team currently above them on goal difference.

  Enzo Maresca's Blues fought back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United last time out, and only Manchester City and Liverpool have beaten them since the Italian took over.

  We delve into the Opta data to preview Sunday's headline fixture at Stamford Bridge.

  What's expected?

  Given the two sides are only separated on goal difference ahead of Sunday's match, the Opta supercomputer finds it difficult to split. 

  Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Arsenal were victorious in 41.2%, giving them a slight edge over their hosts, who are a 33.2% shot.

  The likelihood of a draw is rated at 25.6%, but you sense Arsenal need to take all three points after seeing their hopes of winning the title drop to 4.4% in Opta's season predictions. Chelsea's own hopes are rated at 0.3%, with City (61.9%) still clear favourites ahead of Liverpool (33.4%).

   

  Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (two draws, six defeats), a 2-0 away win in August 2021. The Gunners have managed three victories in their last four league trips to Stamford Bridge (one draw) – as many victories as they recorded in their previous 20 visits (seven draws, 10 defeats).

  Arsenal have also won their last six Premier League London derby matches by an aggregate score of 22-3, winning six of those matches by five or more goals.

  One such occasion was a 5-0 rout of Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium last April, their biggest-ever margin of victory against the Blues in all competitions.

  Blues eye statement victory

  When the Premier League fixture list was drawn up, even the most optimistic Chelsea fan may have struggled to visualise the Blues sitting ahead of Arsenal in the table after 10 games.

  But Maresca's side have shown promising signs in the early stages of his tenure. Chelsea's last two Premier League defeats this season have come against last season's top three teams – 0-5 versus Arsenal in April, 0-2 versus City in August and 1-2 against Liverpool in October.

  They are unbeaten in their last 21 matches against all other teams, winning 14 and drawing seven while scoring 57 goals in total across those games.

  The future looks bright for Chelsea, who fielded a starting lineup with an average age of 23 years and 96 days at Old Trafford last week – their youngest-ever XI for a Premier League match against Manchester United.

  However, they are still waiting on a first statement win under Maresca, and getting one over on the Gunners would earn him plenty of goodwill among the fans.

  Their chances could be decided by the fitness of Cole Palmer, who is an injury doubt after suffering a knock against United.

   

  He opened the scoring when the Blues last welcomed Arsenal to west London for a 2-2 draw last October, scoring his first Premier League goal at Stamford Bridge.

  Since then, he has more home goals in the competition than any other player (21), also leading the way for goal involvements (12 – seven goals, five assists, alongside Mohamed Salah) and open-play chances created in 2024-25.

  Can fit-again Odegaard get Gunners firing?

  Last season, Arsenal won 42 of their 89 Premier League points on their travels, taking nine points from five matches at the homes of their Big Six rivals. 

  This campaign, however, their failure to hit top form on the road has threatened to end their latest title tilt before it truly got going. 

  Arsenal have collected seven points from five away matches this term, the same amount as Brighton and fewer than Liverpool (13), Nottingham Forest (11), Chelsea, City and Aston Villa (all 10).

  While Arteta has long preached the importance of control, Arsenal have simply not been good enough going forward in those matches. They have attempted just 37 shots on the road in the Premier League this season (7.4 per game), with only Brentford (seven) averaging fewer per away match across the entire division.

   

  The fact Arsenal played significant amounts of time at Manchester City and Bournemouth with a numerical disadvantage likely plays a part, but the fact five teams have attempted at least twice as many shots on the road does not make for good reading (Manchester City 90, Tottenham 83, Crystal Palace 79, Bournemouth 78 and Manchester United 74).

  Martin Odegaard's return to training after two months out with an ankle injury is a major boost, with the Norwegian having led all players in the Premier League for expected assists (11.17 xA) and chances created from open play (88) last season.

  Arsenal have actually outperformed their underlying attacking metrics this campaign, netting 17 league goals from 15.75 expected goals (xG), so their finishing does not appear to be an issue. The fact they rank eighth in the league for xG does, however, suggest chance creation is a problem.

  Arteta will hope Odegaard's return can make the difference, or a title challenge may prove a bridge too far. The last time they lost three successive away Premier League games was in December 2021, and they went on to miss out on a top-four finish that season.

  The Norwegian was a late substitute as they were beaten 1-0 by Inter in the Champions League on Wednesday. They have now lost three of their last six games in all competitions, as many as their previous 32 beforehand.

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Chelsea – Nicolas Jackson 

  Since the start of last season, Chelsea striker Jackson has been involved in more London derby goals than any other player in the Premier League (10 goals, two assists).

  All of his 12 involvements have come in his last nine such appearances, and he already has six Premier League goals this term.

   

  Arsenal – Bukayo Saka 

  Saka has provided more assists than any other player in the Premier League this season (seven). 

  He has also either scored (once) or assisted (twice) a goal in each of his last three away games against Chelsea in the Premier League, with Sergio Aguero (2013 to 2017) and Javier Hernandez (2012 to 2018) the only visiting players to do so in four consecutive appearances.