Welcome to the weird world of pandemic era men's tennis, where the world number five is unmistakably the man to beat.
Novak Djokovic sits head and shoulders above the rest for now, and those ranked higher would surely recognise that too, as the Australian Open arrives.
The 35-year-old Djokovic is playing the tennis of a 25-year-old, and being allowed his liberty after arriving in Australia is good news for him, auspicious for the rest of the Melbourne Park field.
Djokovic was being packed off on a flight out of the country around this time last year, after a saga that made minor international celebrities out of local journalists who could interpret the ins and outs of court proceedings.
He remains unvaccinated against COVID-19 as far as is known, but Australia has relaxed its border controls and rolled out the red carpet for Djokovic this time, rather than arrange for him to be detained.
Had he been allowed to play in Australia and North America last season, Djokovic would surely have remained on the top rung of the rankings ladder.
Over the coming fortnight, Djokovic will chase down a 10th Australian Open title and a record-equalling 22nd men's singles major.
What might stop him reaching those goals? Stats Perform has looked at areas where there might be a crumb of hope for his rivals.
Frosty reception?
There might be the odd jeer. He has never been universally popular and he has, through his vaccination choices, seemingly given those that disliked him anyway another stick to beat him with.
But look, if you think crowd pressure is going to get to Novak Djokovic, you haven't watched enough Novak Djokovic. Move on.
Besides, his 'Nole' army is sure to mobilise in Melbourne. He won't be found wanting for support.
Weight of expectation
The greats in sport rarely get flustered, but perhaps these are the moments, as history approaches, when even a model of focus such as Djokovic might miss a step.
You can look at the 2021 US Open final, when Djokovic was chasing a rare Grand Slam of all four majors in the calendar year, only to lose in straight sets to Daniil Medvedev in the Flushing Meadows final.
He would have gone to 21 slams with that win, too, edging ahead of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer with whom he was locked on 20 majors. Instead he was flat, out of gas. The greats do have bad days, but they're rare.
Nadal got the jump on both Djokovic and Federer by winning the Australian and French titles last year to unexpectedly surge to 22 slams, before Djokovic took Wimbledon to narrow the gap and Federer retired to make it a two-man race.
Djokovic has won four of his five finals since Wimbledon, with the exception being a surprising loss to Holger Rune at the Paris Masters.
If he loses, it might have to be early, while still relatively cold. Djokovic has a 100 per cent strike rate once he reaches the semi-finals in Melbourne, never failing to take the title once he reaches the final four.
The #NextGen stars
Who are we looking at here, now we know Carlos Alcaraz is going to be absent? The world number one's hamstring blow has only boosted Djokovic's title chances, while removing the tantalising prospect of a first grand slam match-up between the pair. To date, they have only played once, with Alcaraz winning a tight contest on clay in Madrid last season.
In fact, who even is #NextGen? Stefanos Tsitsipas has been around forever, it feels, but is just 24, the same age as Casper Ruud, who is very much on the rise after two slam finals last season. World number three Ruud is just about #NextGen, but fourth-ranked Tsitsipas probably isn't. His slam results have tailed off, and it would be a significant surprise if the Greek made it to the final from the top half of the draw. He has done well in Australia over the years though, with semi-final runs in three of the last four seasons.
Norwegian Ruud is a potential semi-final opponent for Djokovic, and that could deliver drama. Felix Auger-Aliassime is on the other side of the draw and won four titles last year, yet all were relative tiddlers, while it might be too soon for Rune to win over five sets against an all-time great, but he is a possible quarter-final foe for Djokovic.
So is a certain other player, who long left behind the #NextGen ranks...
Nicholas Hilmy Kyrgios
Nick Kyrgios versus Rune in the third round is a lip-smacking prospect. And if that happens and Kyrgios comes through it, despite having not played on tour yet this year, the prospect of a quarter-final against Djokovic would likely loom large.
Tennis being tennis, strange things can happen, but given his kind draw it is hard to see anyone beating Djokovic before the quarter-final stage. Should it be Kyrgios waiting for him at that point, it will be popcorn at the ready.
Last year's Wimbledon final was decided by a fourth-set tie-break, rather than what would have been a dishy fifth set, and Djokovic would again fancy getting the better ot the bellicose but hyper-talented Australian.
Yet Kyrgios has beaten Djokovic twice in their three career meetings, so this is potentially the real landmine on the path to the final. If someone can defuse Kyrgios in the early rounds, Djokovic would have no complaints whatsoever.
Djokovic's own body might fail him
Djokovic abandoned a practice session in Melbourne out of caution over a hamstring issue, but by Friday he was fit enough to face Kyrgios in an exhibition on Rod Laver Arena.
Had he held any serious fitness worries, he surely would have given that a swerve. Showing up sent a message to the field.
This is not to say Djokovic's health will hold and his body will last the distance, but then the same is true of everyone in the draw. This is tennis at the highest level and Djokovic has fought his way to grand slam titles while carrying injury worries in the past, and you suspect he will again, probably as soon as Sunday, January 29.
WTA Finals: Swiatek suffers shock exit despite Kasatkina victory
Iga Swiatek suffered a shock exit at the WTA Finals despite her triumph over Daria Kasatkina in Riyadh on Thursday.
Swiatek swept aside Kasatkina 6-1 6-0, with the Russian a late replacement for Jessica Pegula who withdrew from the tournament due to a knee injury.
The Pole then had to rely on Coco Gauff beating Barbora Krejcikova to reach the final four, but the Wimbledon champion came through in straight sets to send Swiatek home.
Swiatek won 51 of 74 points and broke Kasatkina’s serve five of six times, ending the encounter in 51 minutes, which was her shortest match this year.
"It was a pretty solid game. It was a good performance," said Swiatek. "I was hitting the ball really well and picking the right shorts to play faster.
But it mattered little in the end, with Swiatek revealing she was unaware of the scenario surrounding her progression to the semi-finals.
“Honestly, I don’t think it matters. Like we go out on court to win every match anyway. I was not thinking about that. I did not know that was the case," she added.
“I’m professional enough to always give 100 percent, no matter what the stakes are."
Swiatek, though, became the third player in the 2000's to win 10 or more matches against top-10 opponents for three consecutive seasons, after Serena Williams (2012-2014) and Venus Williams (2000-2002).
But the day belonged to Krejcikova, who topped the Orange Group after extending her unbeaten run to two matches over Gauff.
The Czech emerged a 7-5 6-4 victor in just under two hours, saving 11 of the 12 break points she faced against the American to book her place in the semi-finals.
The world number 13 became the lowest-ranked player to make the semi-finals at the WTA Finals since Sandrine Testud (ranked 14th) in 2001.
"I think the calmness that I have in myself is key. I was ready to enjoy and excited. I had nothing to lose," Krejcikova said.
"I mean obviously it was difficult. I was just more strict with my game and that was the key today.
"It's very tough to say because before the tournament, I was dealing with some issues and didn't know what to expect.
"I tried to stay positive and knew I was going to fight to the end.
"I faced Zheng last year, she is playing great and had a great season and it is going to be really difficult but I have nothing to lose and I am just going to try and play my best tennis."
Krejcikova will now face Zheng Qinwen, who came second in the Purple Group, while Gauff will take on world number one Aryna Sabalenka in the other match.
The Numbers Game: Can Chelsea dent title hopes of misfiring Gunners?
Ten matches into the Premier League season, Arsenal's hopes of ending their long wait for a league title are already in danger.
Last week's 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United made it just seven points from five games, and they now trail leaders Liverpool by seven points.
Injuries and suspensions have taken their toll on Arteta's men, and things do not get much easier for them on Sunday, against a Chelsea team currently above them on goal difference.
Enzo Maresca's Blues fought back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United last time out, and only Manchester City and Liverpool have beaten them since the Italian took over.
We delve into the Opta data to preview Sunday's headline fixture at Stamford Bridge.
What's expected?
Given the two sides are only separated on goal difference ahead of Sunday's match, the Opta supercomputer finds it difficult to split.
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Arsenal were victorious in 41.2%, giving them a slight edge over their hosts, who are a 33.2% shot.
The likelihood of a draw is rated at 25.6%, but you sense Arsenal need to take all three points after seeing their hopes of winning the title drop to 4.4% in Opta's season predictions. Chelsea's own hopes are rated at 0.3%, with City (61.9%) still clear favourites ahead of Liverpool (33.4%).
Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (two draws, six defeats), a 2-0 away win in August 2021. The Gunners have managed three victories in their last four league trips to Stamford Bridge (one draw) – as many victories as they recorded in their previous 20 visits (seven draws, 10 defeats).
Arsenal have also won their last six Premier League London derby matches by an aggregate score of 22-3, winning six of those matches by five or more goals.
One such occasion was a 5-0 rout of Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium last April, their biggest-ever margin of victory against the Blues in all competitions.
Blues eye statement victory
When the Premier League fixture list was drawn up, even the most optimistic Chelsea fan may have struggled to visualise the Blues sitting ahead of Arsenal in the table after 10 games.
But Maresca's side have shown promising signs in the early stages of his tenure. Chelsea's last two Premier League defeats this season have come against last season's top three teams – 0-5 versus Arsenal in April, 0-2 versus City in August and 1-2 against Liverpool in October.
They are unbeaten in their last 21 matches against all other teams, winning 14 and drawing seven while scoring 57 goals in total across those games.
The future looks bright for Chelsea, who fielded a starting lineup with an average age of 23 years and 96 days at Old Trafford last week – their youngest-ever XI for a Premier League match against Manchester United.
However, they are still waiting on a first statement win under Maresca, and getting one over on the Gunners would earn him plenty of goodwill among the fans.
Their chances could be decided by the fitness of Cole Palmer, who is an injury doubt after suffering a knock against United.
He opened the scoring when the Blues last welcomed Arsenal to west London for a 2-2 draw last October, scoring his first Premier League goal at Stamford Bridge.
Since then, he has more home goals in the competition than any other player (21), also leading the way for goal involvements (12 – seven goals, five assists, alongside Mohamed Salah) and open-play chances created in 2024-25.
Can fit-again Odegaard get Gunners firing?
Last season, Arsenal won 42 of their 89 Premier League points on their travels, taking nine points from five matches at the homes of their Big Six rivals.
This campaign, however, their failure to hit top form on the road has threatened to end their latest title tilt before it truly got going.
Arsenal have collected seven points from five away matches this term, the same amount as Brighton and fewer than Liverpool (13), Nottingham Forest (11), Chelsea, City and Aston Villa (all 10).
While Arteta has long preached the importance of control, Arsenal have simply not been good enough going forward in those matches. They have attempted just 37 shots on the road in the Premier League this season (7.4 per game), with only Brentford (seven) averaging fewer per away match across the entire division.
The fact Arsenal played significant amounts of time at Manchester City and Bournemouth with a numerical disadvantage likely plays a part, but the fact five teams have attempted at least twice as many shots on the road does not make for good reading (Manchester City 90, Tottenham 83, Crystal Palace 79, Bournemouth 78 and Manchester United 74).
Martin Odegaard's return to training after two months out with an ankle injury is a major boost, with the Norwegian having led all players in the Premier League for expected assists (11.17 xA) and chances created from open play (88) last season.
Arsenal have actually outperformed their underlying attacking metrics this campaign, netting 17 league goals from 15.75 expected goals (xG), so their finishing does not appear to be an issue. The fact they rank eighth in the league for xG does, however, suggest chance creation is a problem.
Arteta will hope Odegaard's return can make the difference, or a title challenge may prove a bridge too far. The last time they lost three successive away Premier League games was in December 2021, and they went on to miss out on a top-four finish that season.
The Norwegian was a late substitute as they were beaten 1-0 by Inter in the Champions League on Wednesday. They have now lost three of their last six games in all competitions, as many as their previous 32 beforehand.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Chelsea – Nicolas Jackson
Since the start of last season, Chelsea striker Jackson has been involved in more London derby goals than any other player in the Premier League (10 goals, two assists).
All of his 12 involvements have come in his last nine such appearances, and he already has six Premier League goals this term.
Arsenal – Bukayo Saka
Saka has provided more assists than any other player in the Premier League this season (seven).
He has also either scored (once) or assisted (twice) a goal in each of his last three away games against Chelsea in the Premier League, with Sergio Aguero (2013 to 2017) and Javier Hernandez (2012 to 2018) the only visiting players to do so in four consecutive appearances.
Fulham full of confidence for Palace trip after dramatic derby win
Fulham are preparing to visit Crystal Palace with renewed confidence after a dramatic late win in another London derby against Brentford.
Marco Silva's men were trailing heading into stoppage time at Craven Cottage on Monday, only for a sensational Harry Wilson double to snatch a 2-1 victory.
That was a first win in four in the Premier League for Fulham, although their performances might have merited more points.
Alex Iwobi certainly believes so, explaining: "It's a big lift because we feel like our performances recently deserved a lot more, in terms of getting points and results.
"And the way we did it, against Brentford, we knew it wasn't going to be an easy game, a derby as well... To win it in the manner we did has definitely given us a confidence boost going into another London derby against Palace."
Palace have themselves been given a big lift in the past couple of weeks, following their belated first league win of the season against Tottenham with an EFL Cup defeat of Aston Villa and a controversial draw at Wolves.
The Eagles are still only a place above the relegation zone, and Iwobi is hoping Fulham can check their progress.
"We know it's not going to be easy," he said. "Another derby, it's never easy at their stadium.
"We know it's always tough to go and play there, but we're going to analyse, see their weaknesses. It's not easy, but we'll analyse and see what we can do.
"They've only had one win this season – hopefully it remains that way against us and we'll get the result we want."
Will Hughes had a message for the Palace fans ahead of their return to Selhurst Park: "Thanks for sticking with us, as usual.
"It's not been the best of starts for us in the league, but hopefully they can see, especially over the last few games, that we're turning a corner, not only results wise but the intensity we're playing with.
"We were so difficult to play against at the end of last season with our intensity, and I think we've got that bit of mojo back. Hopefully, we can keep pushing on."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Crystal Palace – Jean-Philippe Mateta
Goals have been hard to come by for Palace this season – especially at Selhurst Park.
Oliver Glasner's side have netted a league-low three times at home, but all of those have been scored by Mateta, continuing his strong form from the end of last season. He has 14 goals in his past 12 home league games for Palace.
They will again rely heavily on the French striker, with Eberechi Eze injured and fellow forward Eddie Nketiah struggling for form. New signing Nketiah has attempted 17 shots without scoring, the most in the Premier League this season.
Fulham – Harry Wilson
There is increased competition in the wide areas for Fulham this season, with Emile Smith Rowe and Reiss Nelson signed and battling with Iwobi, Adama Traore and Wilson for minutes.
But if Wilson cannot get his opportunity after sensationally stealing a win against Brentford last time out, he might wonder if he will ever return to the XI, still waiting for his first league start of the season.
His cutting edge was exactly what Fulham had previously been missing, attempting against Brentford 26 shots – their most in the Premier League for over 10 years – but requiring that late show to come away with the points.
MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW
Following their comeback against Brentford, Fulham are unbeaten in six Premier League London derbies – their longest run since 2006-07 – and also their past five matches against Palace.
Yet four of those clashes with the Eagles have ended all square, including each of the last three.
Palace will hope for more as they look to move clear of the bottom three, but they have not won consecutive league derbies since April 2017 and were victors in their last capital clash against Spurs.
Perhaps 0-0 is therefore the most likely scoreline. Fulham have kept three consecutive clean sheets at Selhurst Park, and their five away matches in the league this season have seen only 11 goals scored.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Crystal Palace – 37.5%
Draw – 26.3%
Fulham – 36.2%
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