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• The Numbers Game: Man City need a win as Tottenham come to town

  Manchester City are in uncharted territory ahead of Tottenham visiting the Etihad Stadium on Saturday.

  Pep Guardiola's all-conquering side, who have won four successive Premier League titles, have lost their last four matches in all competitions.

  It is the first time in Guardiola's managerial career that he has lost four straight games in all competitions, while it is the first time City have lost that many in a row since 2006, when they lost six on the bounce under Stuart Pearce.

  A 2-1 EFL Cup defeat to Tottenham at the end of October started City's poor form, and defeats to Bournemouth, Sporting CP and Brighton followed.

  With Liverpool continuing their fine form under Arne Slot, City head into the weekend five points behind the Reds. 

  Though with Liverpool not in action until Sunday, City can put the pressure back on by seeing off a Spurs team that lost 2-1 to Ipswich Town at home before the international break.

  Here, we preview the clash using the best Opta data.

  What's expected?

  City have won just three of their last 10 Premier League games against Tottenham (D2 L5) and are looking to win consecutive league meetings with them for the first time since April 2019.

  Yet despite that indifferent form against Spurs, City are still made the big favourites by Opta's supercomputer, which ranks their chances of victory at 59.5%.

  Spurs' win probability comes in at 20.2%, while the draw is at 20.3%.

   

  City's form has seen them drop off when it comes to the Opta supercomputer's forecast for the season, with Liverpool now the favourites to win the title (60.2%).

  This match should promise goals, though.

  Tottenham have scored at least twice in each of their last three Premier League away games against City, winning 3-2 in 2021-22, losing 4-2 in 2022-23 and drawing 3-3 last season. No team has ever scored multiple goals in four consecutive Premier League visits to the Etihad.

  Under Guardiola (since 2016-17), City have lost more Premier League games (six) and conceded more Premier League goals (22) against Tottenham than they have against any other opponent.

  Saturday's clash also sees two of the league's top three scoring teams this season go head-to-head. Spurs (23) have netted the most goals in the top tier, with City (22) joint-second alongside Brentford.

  City have registered the highest xG (22.3), with Ange Postecoglou's team recording the second highest (21.7). These teams have had 401 shots between them across 22 matches this season, so expect entertainment.

   

  Classic City, or is there something wrong?

  There has been a tendency for City to take a while to get going in recent years, but they have never looked so short of form as they do now at this stage of a season.

  Guardiola is on the longest losing run of his entire managerial career. Though they are the only team to have scored in every Premier League game so far this season, City have lost their last two (1-2 vs Bournemouth and Brighton). They last lost three in a row in the competition in February/March 2016, a run which included a home defeat to Tottenham.

  City have already dropped seven points from winning positions this term, while they only dropped 10 from such positions across the entirety of last season.

  They have gained a league-leading 13 points from losing positions, though that shows they are falling behind much more often than Guardiola would like.

  The loss of Rodri to a season-ending knee injury has not helped, and City may have to dip into the market in January in search of a replacement.

  Since the start of last season, City have played 13 league games without Rodri, and they have lost five of them. Their win rate without the Spaniard in the side in that time is 53.8%, while with him in the team it rises to 77.8%. 

  With Liverpool facing Southampton, City know they need to get back on track quickly, or they might simply have too big of a gap to bridge.

  Road rage

  Spurs have won just two of their last 11 Premier League away games (D2 L7), winning just once in five on the road this term. Since the start of this spell in March, no side have lost more Premier League away games than Tottenham (seven).

  Postecoglou will not be changing his approach for this game, though. Spurs look to get forward at any opportunity, and the statistics back this up.

  As a team, Tottenham have made more off-the-ball runs into the box than any other side in the Premier League this season (612), with Dominic Solanke having the most among players (138).

  Spurs have also had the most shots inside the box of any Premier League side this term (134).

  Tottenham have played more passes/crosses into the opposition box than any other side in the Premier League this season (429). There are 10 players in the division to have made 70+, with Spurs having three of those (Pedro Porro 96, James Maddison 77, Dejan Kulusevski 72).

   

  Postecoglou promised Spurs fans a trophy this season, and their defeat of City in the EFL Cup was a big scalp, but in the league they have lost three of their last six games and are in 10th, though they are only three points off the top six.

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Manchester City - Erling Haaland

  Haaland netted a hat-trick for Norway this week, taking his tally for the season to 22 for club and country. 

  He returned to scoring form in the Premier League against Brighton, though City could not hold on for the win. While he may not have always shown his best level, Haaland is still betting at a remarkable rate of 1.1 goals per 90 minutes in the top flight this season.

  Tottenham - Dejan Kulusevski

  No player has created more chances either overall (30) or from open play (25) in the Premier League this season than Kulusevski.

  His pace and skill on the counter could be a real asset against City's high line.

• Eight titles, two grand slams and 70 match wins: Sinner's spectacular 2024

  As far as seasons go, you won't find many better than Jannik Sinner's 2024 campaign.

  The 23-year-old had long been assured of his place at the top of the ATP rankings heading into 2025, but to further cement his dominance of the men's circuit, Sinner dominated the ATP Finals in Turin last week.

  Sinner's 6-4 6-4 defeat of Taylor Fritz ensured he became the first ATP Finals champion since Ivan Lendl in 1986 to win the tournament without dropping a single set.

  He became the seventh player to win the event on home soil, and the first Italian champion, as he made it eight titles for the year, including the Australian Open and US Open.

  Here, we recap Sinner's brilliant year using Opta's treasure trove of data.

  Breakout major success

  It almost seems strange to think Sinner began 2024 without a grand slam title to his name. That soon changed at the Australian Open, though, as he defeated Daniil Medvedev in a classic, five-set final.

  Sinner did things the hard way at Melbourne Park, also overcoming Andrey Rublev in the quarter-finals and Novak Djokovic in the last four. 

  At the age of 22 years and 165 days, he became the youngest player to ever achieve successive wins over ATP top-five opponents in the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final of a grand slam, surpassing Michael Stich, who did so at the age of 22 years and 262 days at Wimbledon 1991.

  That triumph also made him only the third Italian man to win a grand slam, after French Open champions Nicola Pietrangeli (1959 and 1960) and Adriano Panatta (1976).

  By beating Djokovic, Sinner became the first Italian to defeat the ATP's top-ranked player at a major, with Italians previously going 0-23 in such matches since the ATP Rankings were first published in 1973.

  Sinner would also record a final victory over Djokovic at the Shanghai Masters later in the year, becoming the first player on record to not face a single break point in back-to-back tour-level meetings with the Serbian.

   

  Slam consistency

  Of course, Sinner later followed up his Australian Open triumph by clinching the US Open crown, downing home favourite Fritz in the Flushing Meadows final.

  Those major wins were two of seven triumphs for Sinner at hard-court events this year, making him just the fifth player to win seven or more finals on the surface in a year, after Andre Agassi (1995), Pete Sampras (1996), Roger Federer (2004-06) and Djokovic (2015).

  But perhaps his remarkable consistency across all four grand slams is what stands out most.

  Sinner reached at least the quarter-finals at each of 2024's majors, losing to Carlos Alcaraz in the French Open semi-finals and Medvedev in the last eight at Wimbledon.

  At 23 years and 17 days, he became the third-youngest man in the Open Era to reach the quarter-finals at all four slams in a single season, after Sampras in 1993 (22 years and 18 days) and Rafael Nadal in 2008 (22 years and 83 days).

  Sinner won 23 matches overall at grand slams this year, with no other player on the ATP Tour bringing up 20 (Alcaraz managed 19).

   

  Top of the world

  Following his defeat to Djokovic in the showpiece match at the 2023 ATP Finals, Sinner sat fourth in the ATP Rankings 12 months ago.

  He had already clinched top spot for 2024 as early as October 15, when he beat Djokovic in straight sets in the Shanghai Open final. 

  Since changes were made to the distribution of ranking points in 2009, only two players have ever sewn up top spot earlier – Djokovic in 2015 (September 14) and Nadal in 2010 (September 20).

  No Italian had previously topped the ATP Rankings, and few could deny Sinner was a deserving recipient of the accolade. His 70 match wins were the most of any player on the ATP Tour in 2024, while his 92.1% win rate is the best by any player since 2015, when Djokovic won 93.2% of his contests. 

   

  Sinner did not let the pressure of being number one affect him, either, going 37-3 since first taking top spot. His 92.5% win rate is the best by any male world number one by some distance, dwarfing Bjorn Borg's 80.4%.

  With Djokovic turning 38 next year, most would agree Sinner's breakout season has been good for men's tennis, teeing up what could be a long period of dominance by the Italian and his rival Alcaraz.

  His star should continue to rise in 2025.

• Harden goes second in all-time 3-pointers list, does not expect to catch Curry

  James Harden may consider himself one of the most confident players in the NBA, but he does not expect to overhaul Stephen Curry's all-time 3-pointer record after going second in the charts.

  Curry made a pair of 3-pointers as the Los Angeles Clippers beat the Utah Jazz 116-105 on Sunday, finishing with 20 points, 11 assists and six rebounds.

  His first 3-pointer of the evening, made with around six minutes to go in the first quarter, was the 2,794th of his NBA career, the second-most in league history.

  Having surpassed Ray Allen's total of 2,973, Harden only trails Curry – who has hit 3,782 3-pointers ahead of his Golden State Warriors facing the Clippers on Monday.

  Asked about his feat after Sunday's game, Harden said: "Unbelievable accomplishment. It's just a testament to the amount of work that I've been putting in. 

  "As I get older and just chip away at an unbelievable career, I start to accomplish things like that. So I don't ever want to take it for granted.

  "I just want to give motivation to the youth and every other person that's chasing a dream to play professional basketball or whatever it is, so it's an honour."

  But when asked if Curry's mark was now within his sights, Harden – who is just a year younger than the all-time record holder – said nobody will ever take that honour, adding: "I'm one of the most confident guys that we have in this league, but no, I probably won't catch Steph.

  "I don't think anybody will honestly. He can shoot the s*** out of the ball. Granted a lot of these guys are on that list for being catch-and-shoot players, so they came off pindowns, they were spot shots or whatnot. 

  "Now, where the game has evolved, guys like Steph are coming off pindowns, he's creating off isos, he's coming off pick-and-rolls. 

  "There's so many different variables to be able to shoot the 3, make shots and do it at an efficient high level.

  "Somebody has to have an unbelievable career, shoot the ball well and make a lot of 3s. If it happens, it's going to be when we're not here anymore. So that'll be in there for a minute."