Anthony Joshua's return to the ring on Saturday to face Jermaine Franklin is a bout where both have plenty to prove.
Back-to-back defeats to Oleksandr Usyk saw Joshua lose his heavyweight titles, while leaving him with three defeats from his last five bouts.
Franklin, meanwhile, was undefeated and on a meteoric trajectory with 21 victories in a row, including 14 knockouts, before his unbeaten run came to a close at the hands of Dillian Whyte in November at Wembley – his first test outside the United States.
With Joshua in need of a win to stop the rot and Franklin looking to show his worth at this level, their clash at the O2 Arena is one where defeat does not bear thinking about.
Contender or pretender?
Dominating the heavyweight scene for years, the AJ of old was completely lost in the two defeats to Usyk which, although both went the distance, were bouts where the British Olympian never truly looked capable of victory.
The 2019 defeat to Andy Ruiz Jr. was a shock, requiring Joshua to come back six months later to reclaim his belts, but the same cannot be said about Usyk, who was on top throughout almost every round across the pair's two meetings.
Now, the big question is whether the downward spiral will continue, or whether Joshua can force his way back into contention with the heavyweight elite in a period of great change, with the old guard not getting any younger and fresh blood creeping into contention.
For now, Joshua remains in the conversation. Discussions for a fiercely-anticipated all-British bout against Tyson Fury fell flat but Joshua has been touted for a meeting with Deontay Wilder later this year.
Defeat to Franklin, however, would hit hard and would see Joshua's recent record extend to four losses in six fights, not the sort of calibre required to remain at the top of the game, with some already suggesting that such a loss should result in AJ hanging up his gloves, including the man himself.
Franklin's rise
For many, facing Whyte is seen as an entry test into the heavyweight elite, with the Brit having faced the majority of the division's top fighters – including Fury, Joshua, Derek Chisora and Alexander Povetkin.
Defeat to Whyte in November was a blow for Franklin, a majority decision ending the 21-fight win streak, and he is now looking to prove his credentials outside the US by taking a significant scalp in the form of Joshua.
What Franklin lacks in experience, he certainly makes up for in confidence, declaring he will either secure a knockout win or "brutally" dominate the fight.
"If it's not a knockout then it will be a domination brutally. I'll go at him, see what he's going to do and see if I can make him make mistakes early," he said.
Coming out the blocks flying may be the best approach for Franklin, quickly putting the pressure on Joshua and silencing the home crowd, particularly with AJ unable to muster a response in similar circumstances against Usyk.
Pound for pound
Though Joshua boasts height and reach advantage over Franklin, that may not provide a significant indication on the match up given AJ had similar upper hands over Usyk, and a bout may well go the full distance.
Four of Joshua's last seven fights have gone 12 rounds, including three of the last four, and the knockout dominating AJ of old seems to have been lost in the latter years of his career.
Franklin is in a similar position, with just one knockout victory in his last six – having had 14 KO wins in his first 16 professional fights.
Prediction: Joshua wins on points
Numbers Game: Ex-Irish international Carsley out to prove England credentials in Dublin
England will play their first match without Gareth Southgate in the dugout when they take on the Republic of Ireland.
Southgate quit his post in the wake of England's 2-1 defeat to Spain in the final of Euro 2024 in July.
That ended a hugely successful eight-year stint for Southgate when it came to turning around the fortunes of the Three Lions, and restoring England's pride in the national team.
Yet for all the promise and potential, England could not get over the line when it truly mattered, falling short in two Euros finals, and a World Cup semi-final.
England had endured a miserable Nations League campaign before their exploits in Germany, and in hindsight, it showed that perhaps Southgate's magic was wearing off.
Now in League B, having been relegated from League A, England's first match after Southgate sees them face an old rival, as former Ireland international Lee Carsley aims to prove his credentials to the Football Association (FA).
Having won last year's Under-21 Euros, Carsley will surely be hoping he can follow in Southgate's footsteps in transferring from the youth set up to the senior side.
Here, using Opta data, we delve into the key talking points ahead of Saturday's clash in Dublin.
What's expected?
It's always hard to fully gauge what a team will look like under a new manager, especially in international football.
That being said, while we do not quite know what Carsley's England will look like, we can be sure that they are the favourites for this one, with Opta's supercomputer handing them a 70.4% win probability.
Ireland, on the other hand, have been given just a 13.2% win likelihood, while the threat of a draw is 16.5%.
This is England's first game without Southgate in charge since a 1-0 win over Slovakia in September 2016 in Sam Allardyce's one and only game.
Including caretakers, only four managers have lost their first game in charge of the Three Lions: Alf Ramsey (2-5 vs France in 1963), Howard Wilkinson (0-2 vs France in 1999), Peter Taylor (0-1 vs Italy in 2000) and Stuart Pearce (2-3 vs Netherlands at the 2012 Olympics when coaching Team GB).
It is fair to say Carsley, who played 40 times for Ireland between 1997 and 2008, has history on his side. Will he continue those strong records?
New blood
Carsley, as expected, freshened up his squad with some new faces. Angel Gomes, Morgan Gibbs-White, Tino Livramento and Noni Madueke all made the cut.
Gomes, Gibbs-White and Madueke made 50 appearances combined for Carsley in the U21s, so it is not a huge surprise to see the trio given a shot, while Livramento has usurped Kieran Trippier, who has now retired from international football, at Newcastle United this season.
At last year's U21 Euros, Carsley's team scored 11 goals in six games, outperforming their 8.5 expected goals (xG) and, despite not dominating possession, averaging 56.4%, they scored the most build-up goals at the tournament (seven) - a build-up goal is an open play sequence that features 10+ passes and ends in a goal.
Given England performed so poorly, relative to the quality at their disposal, in attack at Euro 2024, perhaps Carsley's approach can help get the best out of that star-studded frontline, albeit Phil Foden, Ollie Watkins and Cole Palmer have all withdrawn from the squad.
Indeed, England have scored just 13 goals in 11 games in 2024, having netted 26 in 10 games in 2023. Their 2024 average of 1.2 goals per game is their lowest in a year since 2000 (exactly one per game, 11 goals in 11 games), so Carsley has a relatively low bar to improve on.
What about the defence, though? Southgate was a pragmatic manager, and in fairness, England only allowed 7.3 xG against through their seven matches at Euro 2024.
However, they have shipped the opening goal in each of their last four matches, all in the knockout stages in Germany (W2 D1 L1). The Three Lions have not conceded the opener in five games in a row since between November 1953 and June 1954.
And going back to that U21 Euros, Carsley's side did not concede a single goal, albeit the xGA metric suggests they should have conceded at least seven.
While the fresh faces in England's squad will be looking to stake a claim, Jack Grealish has been handed a reprieve after missing out on Euro 2024. And, right at the top of the pitch, there is the experience and world-class finishing ability of Harry Kane, who is closing in on his 100th cap - should he play in Dublin, that will be appearance number 99 for his country.
Ireland's new era
It is not just Carsley that is making his bow in the dugout on Saturday. Heimir Hallgrimsson is Ireland's new boss, with the former Jamaica and Iceland coach having been appointed earlier in the summer.
Hallgrimsson has previous with England, of course. He was in joint charge of Iceland when they knocked Roy Hodgson's Three Lions out of Euro 2016.
The only manager to defeat England with two different nations is Bora Milutinovic, in 1985 with Mexico and in 1993 with the United States.
And what better way to start a new era than a big win over a big rival?
This is the first time Ireland will host England since a goalless draw in a friendly in June 2015. In a competitive match, it is the first time since a November 1990 European Championship qualifier, drawn 1-1 with Tony Cascarino cancelling out David Platt's opener for the Three Lions.
England also won their last meeting with Ireland in November 2020 – they have not won consecutive games against them since doing so with wins in 1980 and 1985.
Ireland last beat England in 1995, though the sides have only met each other three times since, with two draws and one win for England: that 3-0 triumph in 2020.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Republic of Ireland - Evan Ferguson
Ferguson could not quite get going last season after a bright start for Brighton, but he is still one of the Premier League's most exciting youngsters.
The striker is Ireland's big hope going forward and will be out to make his mark against one of the best teams in the world.
England - Harry Kane
Kane ranks 10th on the all-time list of England caps and has made 85 starts, playing 7,616 minutes, directly contributing to 83 goals (66 goals – an England record – and 17 assists). He averages 0.78 goals per 90, and 0.98 goal contributions per 90.
Indeed, Kane averages a goal every 115 minutes for his country, and he will surely be the key man for Carsley as the interim manager looks to capitalise on this audition.
The Rugby Championship: Springboks seek decisive victory over All Blacks
Round four of the 2024 Rugby Championship is almost upon us, taking us past the halfway stage of a competition so far dominated by South Africa.
The Springboks made it three wins from three games against New Zealand last time out, though they left it late as tries from Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Grant Williams handed them a dramatic 31-27 victory at Ellis Park.
Heading from Johannesburg to Cape Town on Saturday, they know another victory would all but wrap up their first triumph in the competition since 2019, ending the All Blacks' five-year reign.
The world champions enter round four with an eight-point lead over New Zealand in the standings, with Argentina one point further back ahead of their second Test against Australia.
Here, we dive into the Opta data to preview this weekend's action, bringing you the best facts and figures from each game.
SOUTH AFRICA V NEW ZEALAND
At various points last week, it looked as though New Zealand were set to breathe fresh life into this year's Rugby Championship race.
The All Blacks held a 27-17 lead at one stage, but Ofa Tu'ungafasi's 69th-minute sin-bin put South Africa in the ascendancy and two late tries helped them claim victory in a re-run of last year's World Cup final.
It will now take an almighty collapse to stop the Springboks from getting their hands on the trophy. They are chasing a fourth straight Test win over New Zealand, last recording more successive victories against them between September 1937 and September 1949 (six).
The All Blacks, meanwhile, have lost two of their last three Test matches (one win) after only losing one of their previous nine (eight victories).
Last week's defeat was a particularly demoralising one for Scott Robertson's team, as even scoring four tries was not enough for victory. Prior to that game, the last time the All Blacks were beaten when scoring four or more tries was in August 2019 (47-26 v Australia).
The visitors will now be acutely aware of South Africa's resilience, and the Springboks have actually won their last three Tests in Cape Town despite trailing at half-time in two of them, having lost four such matches in a row prior to the start of this run.
South Africa face a nervous wait on the fitness of Siya Kolisi after he took a heavy blow to the cheek from Sam Cane last time out, delaying their team news announcement by two days to give their captain every chance of making it.
But regardless of who starts, they will bring plenty of physicality. The Springboks have crossed the gain line on 64% of their carries in this year's Rugby Championship – at least 6% more than any other team. Their tackles success rate of 89%, meanwhile, is also the highest in the tournament.
New Zealand will have to make the most of their opportunities, but they can take encouragement from their efficiency in the 2024 tournament to date. Their 22 line breaks are at least four more than any team, while their average of 3.6 points scored per attacking 22m entry is also the best in the competition.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
South Africa – Elrigh Louw
Louw has crossed the gain line from 73% of his 26 carries so far in the 2024 Rugby Championship. That is the highest rate of any player with 20 or more carries in the competition this year.
New Zealand – Caleb Clark
While the All Blacks were unable to get over the line against South Africa last week, Clark impressed with two tries, having failed to score versus the Springboks in three previous career appearances against them.
Overall, he has six tries in his last six Tests, scoring at least once in each of his last three.
ARGENTINA V AUSTRALIA
Australia finally got up and running in this year's tournament in round three, overcoming Argentina in another dramatic finale in La Plata.
Ben Donaldson kicked a last-gasp penalty as the Wallabies triumphed 20-19, and though a fifth Tri-Nations/Rugby Championship title is now surely beyond them, they could restore further pride this week by claiming back-to-back wins in the competition for the first time since 2022.
Australia have now won four of their last six Test matches against Los Pumas (two defeats), though they have typically had to do things the hard way, not leading at half-time in any of the teams' last four meetings (two wins, two defeats).
Indeed, Argentina should be expected to keep things competitive again, having seen four of their last five Rugby Championship matches decided by margins of no more than eight points (two wins, three losses).
This will be the first time they have welcomed Australia to Sante Fe, where they will be desperate to improve on their underwhelming record. They have lost their last two games in the city, going down 30-12 to Wales in 2018 and 35-25 to England in 2017.
The hosts will again be looking to make the most of kick returns, having gained 423 metres from such situations in the Rugby Championship this year – 170 more than Australia, who rank second with 253m.
Australia, meanwhile, lead the tournament charts for turnovers won, with 16. The Wallabies have also registered 44 successful exits from their defensive 22m zone, with only New Zealand (47) recording more.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Argentina – Juan Martin Gonzalez
Gonzalez, alongside Australia's Carlo Tizzano, has made dominant contact on more tackles than any other player in the Rugby Championship 2024 (seven each).
Gonzalez has also crossed the line for a try in each of his last four Test matches against Australia, including for Argentina's sole score last week. He has gained 4.1 metres per carry in the Rugby Championship 2024, the best average among all forwards (minimum 10 carries attempted).
Australia – Rob Valentini
Valentini has been directly involved in four tries in his last four Test matches (three tries, one try assist), including going over Argentina last time out.
That is more involvements than he logged across his previous 27 Tests for the Wallabies prior to this span (three – two tries, one try assist).
Premier League MD3: Lucky winners and unlucky losers
The Premier League takes its first break for international fixtures over the next two weeks.
But we had plenty of thrills and spills on matchday three.
Everton were 2-0 up in the 87th minute against Bournemouth on Saturday, only for Sean Dyche's team to lose 3-2. Manchester City continued their perfect start, while Arsenal were held by Brighton, with Declan Rice sent off.
On Sunday, Newcastle United overcame Tottenham and Chelsea drew with Crystal Palace, while the headline fixture of the weekend saw Liverpool hammer Manchester United.
But which teams were lucky, and unlucky, on MD3?
Lucky winners: Bournemouth
Andoni Iraola claimed Bournemouth were fortunate to come from behind and beat Everton 3-2 at Goodison Park. The Toffees were leading by 2+ goals until the 87th minute – the latest a team has ever been 2+ goals ahead in a game they've gone on to lose in Premier League history.
The full-time stats perhaps suggest a different version of events to Iraola's take. Bournemouth finished with a higher expected goals (xG) than Everton (2.22 to 1.97) while having 17 shots to the hosts' 18.
But up until late on, Everton had complete control. Indeed, as of the 80th minute, Sean Dyche's team had mustered 18 shots, 11 more than Bournemouth.
And just to hammer that home, 1.79 of Bournemouth's 2.22 xG came from the 81st minute onwards. While the Cherries deserve credit for a smash-and-grab, it is fair to say that Everton, who had five big chances but scored just two of them, will have been left scratching their heads as to how they capitulated.
Unlucky losers: Chelsea
Okay, so technically, Chelsea are not 'losers' - they drew 1-1 with Palace on Sunday.
But, based on the metrics, they were extremely unfortunate not to beat Oliver Glasner's team.
Chelsea had 13 shots and accumulated 2.4 xG, which was the third highest across the weekend's games, behind Brentford (2.78) and Man City (3.0), albeit a huge chunk of it came from Nicolas Jackson's close-range finish.
Palace goalkeeper Dean Henderson was in fantastic form, making some excellent saves to deny Noni Madueke and Cole Palmer and coming away with a goals prevented figure of 1.76, and ultimately, Eberechi Eze's stunner, which had an xG of just 0.06, was enough to claim a share of the spoils and frustrate Enzo Maresca.
Lucky winners: Newcastle United
Newcastle beat Spurs 2-1 at St James' Park, and Eddie Howe's team showed how clinical they can be.
They had nine shots, 11 fewer than Tottenham, but actually amassed a higher xG total (1.83 to 1.26), showing that the opportunities they created were quality ones.
Indeed, they converted both of their big chances, meaning they join Leicester City (1/1) as the only other team from the weekend to register a 100% big chance conversion rate.
Unlucky losers: Arsenal
Like Chelsea, Arsenal drew, but based on the underlying metrics, and even though they went down to 10 men when Declan Rice was sent off, they could be considered unfortunate not to have beaten Brighton.
Mikel Arteta's team finished with an xG of 2.14, the fifth-highest total from the weekend, while also creating five big opportunities, from which players would have been anticipated to do better, only for the Gunners to miss four of them.
On the flip side, Arsenal did face 22 shots going the other way, albeit those attempts did not account for a high xG (1.76).
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