Anthony Joshua's return to the ring on Saturday to face Jermaine Franklin is a bout where both have plenty to prove.
Back-to-back defeats to Oleksandr Usyk saw Joshua lose his heavyweight titles, while leaving him with three defeats from his last five bouts.
Franklin, meanwhile, was undefeated and on a meteoric trajectory with 21 victories in a row, including 14 knockouts, before his unbeaten run came to a close at the hands of Dillian Whyte in November at Wembley – his first test outside the United States.
With Joshua in need of a win to stop the rot and Franklin looking to show his worth at this level, their clash at the O2 Arena is one where defeat does not bear thinking about.
Contender or pretender?
Dominating the heavyweight scene for years, the AJ of old was completely lost in the two defeats to Usyk which, although both went the distance, were bouts where the British Olympian never truly looked capable of victory.
The 2019 defeat to Andy Ruiz Jr. was a shock, requiring Joshua to come back six months later to reclaim his belts, but the same cannot be said about Usyk, who was on top throughout almost every round across the pair's two meetings.
Now, the big question is whether the downward spiral will continue, or whether Joshua can force his way back into contention with the heavyweight elite in a period of great change, with the old guard not getting any younger and fresh blood creeping into contention.
For now, Joshua remains in the conversation. Discussions for a fiercely-anticipated all-British bout against Tyson Fury fell flat but Joshua has been touted for a meeting with Deontay Wilder later this year.
Defeat to Franklin, however, would hit hard and would see Joshua's recent record extend to four losses in six fights, not the sort of calibre required to remain at the top of the game, with some already suggesting that such a loss should result in AJ hanging up his gloves, including the man himself.
Franklin's rise
For many, facing Whyte is seen as an entry test into the heavyweight elite, with the Brit having faced the majority of the division's top fighters – including Fury, Joshua, Derek Chisora and Alexander Povetkin.
Defeat to Whyte in November was a blow for Franklin, a majority decision ending the 21-fight win streak, and he is now looking to prove his credentials outside the US by taking a significant scalp in the form of Joshua.
What Franklin lacks in experience, he certainly makes up for in confidence, declaring he will either secure a knockout win or "brutally" dominate the fight.
"If it's not a knockout then it will be a domination brutally. I'll go at him, see what he's going to do and see if I can make him make mistakes early," he said.
Coming out the blocks flying may be the best approach for Franklin, quickly putting the pressure on Joshua and silencing the home crowd, particularly with AJ unable to muster a response in similar circumstances against Usyk.
Pound for pound
Though Joshua boasts height and reach advantage over Franklin, that may not provide a significant indication on the match up given AJ had similar upper hands over Usyk, and a bout may well go the full distance.
Four of Joshua's last seven fights have gone 12 rounds, including three of the last four, and the knockout dominating AJ of old seems to have been lost in the latter years of his career.
Franklin is in a similar position, with just one knockout victory in his last six – having had 14 KO wins in his first 16 professional fights.
Prediction: Joshua wins on points
Premier League MD10: Lucky winners and unlucky losers
We are now 10 games into the Premier League season and the table is beginning to take shape, but that does not mean there is no room for an upset or two.
On Saturday, both Manchester City and Arsenal fell to surprise defeats at Bournemouth and Newcastle United respectively.
It was only the third time since the start of 2017-18 that both of the previous season's top two teams had lost on the same day in the Premier League, after March 7, 2021 and January 14, 2023.
Pep Guardiola's champions could have few complaints about the result at the Vitality Stadium, where Andoni Iraola's Cherries won the expected goals (xG) battle by 2.04 to 1.56.
But which other games featured a lucky winner or an unlucky loser? We delve into the Opta data to find out.
Unlucky losers: Arsenal
The weekend's action began with Arsenal travelling to St James' Park to face Newcastle, with Mikel Arteta's side chasing a victory to move within a point of leaders Liverpool.
However, they succumbed to a 1-0 defeat as Alexander Isak's early goal proved enough for Newcastle to make it three wins in their last four home league games against Arsenal (one loss).
The Gunners could count themselves unlucky to come away from Tyneside with nothing, however, after limiting Newcastle to a measly 0.53 xG – 0.25 of which came from the chance for Isak's goal.
Only West Ham, who played half of their defeat to Nottingham Forest with 10 men, created a lower figure across the nine games to take place this weekend, with 0.13 xG.
Arsenal were far from their free-flowing best, though, only recording 10 attempts worth 1.05 xG themselves. They have averaged just 7.4 shots per game in their away Premier League matches this season, with only Brentford (7.5) taking fewer.
Lucky winners: Southampton
Just two teams – Wolves and Ipswich Town – remain without a victory in the Premier League after Southampton finally got off the mark by beating Everton 1-0 at St Mary's.
Russell Martin's team accumulated just 0.74 xG to Everton's 1.56, but Adam Armstrong's strike five minutes from time handed them a huge three points in their fight for safety.
While Beto, who headed against the crossbar just 25 seconds before Armstrong's winner, and Jack Harrison spurned great chances for the Toffees, Southampton were also grateful for a late VAR intervention, as the former saw a potential leveller chalked off for a marginal offside call.
It was the first time Everton had failed to score against Southampton in the Premier League since February 2022, bringing their five-match unbeaten run in the competition to a halt.
Unlucky losers: Crystal Palace
Southampton ended the weekend in 19th, above winless Wolves after they were pegged back in a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace at Molineux.
Marc Guehi salvaged a draw for the Eagles, who were without star men Adam Wharton and Eberechi Eze yet arguably still did enough to leave the West Midlands with all three points.
They racked up 19 shots totalling 2.51 xG to their hosts' 11, which had a total value of 1.51 xG. Palace's xG figure was the highest in the Premier League this weekend, but they were missing their shooting boots as Ismaila Sarr squandered two glorious chances when they were a goal to the good in the second half.
With both defences struggling, this was only the second Premier League game of the season to be goalless at half-time but see both sides score at least twice in the second half, after Everton 2-3 Bournemouth in August.
There could have been a fifth goal in stoppage time, too, as Jean-Phillipe Mateta saw a potential winner disallowed for a foul on Jose Sa in the build-up. Wolves – and their under-fire head coach Gary O'Neil – arguably got away with one.
Lucky winners: Chelsea
Sunday's late game saw Chelsea fight back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United at Old Trafford, denying Ruud van Nistelrooy a first Premier League win as the Red Devils' interim head coach.
Moises Caicedo's well-taken volley cancelled out Bruno Fernandes' penalty and Chelsea arguably looked the more likely victors in the second half, but they only generated 1.1 xG from their 12 attempts – and just 0.29 from six after the interval.
United, meanwhile, had chances worth 1.98 xG, though Fernandes' spot-kick – with an xG value of 0.79 – was a major contributing factor.
Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho squandered decent opportunities for United, though, and incoming boss Ruben Amorim has plenty of work to do with their attackers.
United have scored just nine goals in 10 Premier League games this season – their worst record through 10 matches of any league campaign since 1973-74 (also nine).
Fans of a certain vintage will need no reminder of what happened at the end of that season – United were relegated from the First Division, their fate sealed by club legend Denis Law scoring against them with a nonchalant backheel, while representing rivals Man City.
The Numbers Game: Can Van Nistelrooy get Man Utd back on track?
Erik ten Hag seemed doomed at Manchester United and the period after winning the FA Cup became, as expected, a stay of execution.
United sacked the Dutchman on Monday, placing his compatriot - and club great - Ruud van Nistelrooy in temporary charge.
They have moved swiftly to try and appoint a permanent successor, though, with Ruben Amorim of Sporting CP the target.
Amorim has promised to provide clarity over his future after Sporting's league game on Friday, but it does seem certain that Van Nistelrooy – who oversaw a 5-2 win over Leicester City in the EFL Cup on Wednesday – will be in charge for the visit of in-form Chelsea on Sunday.
United's two Premier League matches at Old Trafford against other Big Six sides this season did not go well for Ten Hag, with the Red Devils beaten 3-0 by both Liverpool and Tottenham.
But will it be different now he has gone?
What's expected?
United are unbeaten in their last 11 home league games against Chelsea (W5 D6) and are looking to win three in a row against the Blues at Old Trafford for the first time since January 1957.
But United have picked up just 11 points after nine Premier League matches this season (W3 D2 L4), which is their second-fewest ever total at this stage – only in 2019-20 did they have fewer points at this point (10).
They have only lost four of their opening nine Premier League games on two occasions, with both coming in the last two seasons under Ten Hag.
These sides last met in April, with Chelsea coming from behind to win a thriller 4-3 at Stamford Bridge. The Blues last won consecutive league meetings with the Red Devils in March 2011 (a run of three).
United vs Chelsea is the most drawn fixture in Premier League history, with 26 of the previous 64 meetings between the sides finishing level and the Opta supercomputer is forecasting a close encounter this time.
In 37.8% of the model's simulations, United came out on top. Chelsea were the winners in 37.3%, with the probability of a draw coming in at 24.9%.
A new era
Ten Hag lost 32% of his Premier League games in charge of United (27/85), the joint-highest percentage along with David Moyes (11/34).
Seven of his 27 defeats, meanwhile, came via stoppage-time winners, the highest percentage (26%) of any manager to lose 20+ games in Premier League history.
While Amorim looks likely to come in soon, this is a chance for Van Nistelrooy to get a much-needed feel-good factor back at Old Trafford. United are down in 14th, so they could do with a win.
Their five-goal haul in midweek was a timely boost, given that finishing chances has been such a big issue.
Only Southampton and Crystal Palace (six each) have scored fewer Premier League goals this season than United (eight).
United have underperformed their expected goals by 6.8 (xG of 14.8), the worst differential of any side in 2024-25. Since 2022-23, only Everton (-26) have underperformed their xG by more than United (-17-9 – 123 goals from an xG of 140.9).
All the young Blues
Scoring goals has not been an issue for Chelsea under Enzo Maresca.
The Blues have scored 19 goals in the league this term, which is a tally bettered only by league leaders Manchester City. Chelsea have also accumulated the third-highest xG in the league (17.3), behind Tottenham (17.7) and City (18.5).
But in their last away game in the league, Chelsea struggled to click into gear in attack and lost 2-1 to Liverpool.
Arne Slot's team are a step above United in terms of quality, but Maresca will want his side to take the game to their opponents at Old Trafford.
Maresca has gone with youth this season, so a fearless approach that has mostly been present in the league is perhaps no surprise.
Chelsea have named the youngest average starting XI in the Premier League this season (23 years, 206 days). In their 2-1 win over Newcastle, they became just the second team in Premier League history to not name a single outfield player aged 25+ in their starting XI for a match, after Aston Villa who did so in two games in 2013.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Man Utd - Bruno Fernandes
Against Leicester, Fernandes recorded his 150th and 151st goal involvements for Manchester United, becoming the seventh player overall to do so in Europe’s big five leagues in all competitions since his debut and first midfielder to do so.
Chelsea - Cole Palmer
Palmer has been directly involved in 33 Premier League goals for Chelsea in 2024 (21 goals, 12 assists). Only two players have had more goals and assists in a year for the Blues: Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink in 2001 (25 goals, 11 assists) and Didier Drogba in 2010 (22 goals, 13 assists).
He scored in both of Chelsea’s Premier League games against United last season, including a hat-trick in a 4-3 win at Stamford Bridge. The only Chelsea players to score in three consecutive Premier League games against them are Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (2000-2001) and Juan Mata (2012-2013).
Premier League MD9: Lucky winners and unlucky losers
The first managerial departure of the 2024-25 Premier League season has come, with Erik ten Hag leaving his role at Manchester United.
United's decision to dismiss Ten Hag came after the Red Devils slumped to a 2-1 defeat at West Ham on Sunday, leaving them 14th in the table.
Elsewhere, Liverpool and Arsenal shared the spoils in a 2-2 draw, Manchester City downed Southampton, Chelsea beat Newcastle United and Brentford came out on top in a seven-goal thriller against Ipswich Town.
Late goals also ruled the roost this past weekend. There were five games to have a final result-altering goal scored in the 90th minute (or later) in the Premier League this weekend, the most across a single matchday in the competition's history.
But what do the underlying metrics tell us?
Unlucky losers: Fulham
Fulham took a point away from Goodison Park on Saturday, but Marco Silva thought his team deserved two more.
And it is fair to say Everton were largely second-best, with Beto's last-gasp equaliser sparring Sean Dyche's team.
Fulham, who took the lead through Alex Iwobi, registered 1.26 expected goals (xG) to Everton's 0.79 and had 14 shots to their hosts' 10. That being said, perhaps Silva's side only have themselves to blame - they converted only 7.14% of their shots and got only three attempts on target.
Lucky winners: Bournemouth
Evanilson's late header secured a 1-1 draw for Bournemouth at Aston Villa, and though the Cherries could point to some potential penalty decisions going against them, it is fair to say the metrics suggest they were fortunate to avoid defeat.
Only Southampton (0.21) mustered a lower xG than Bournemouth's 0.31 across the fixtures in the top flight this past weekend.
Villa, on the other hand, registered 1.81 xG - the fifth-highest total in the division across the games - while Mark Travers was exceptional in the Bournemouth goal.
He made seven saves to keep Villa at bay, bar Ross Barkley's opener. Indeed, Villa's 3.23 expected goals on target (xGoT) was more than any other team in matchweek nine, so Travers finished with a goals-prevented figure of 2.23.
Andoni Iraola's team certainly rode their luck.
Unlucky losers: Man Utd
Ten Hag's time is up, though the Dutchman was fuming about a contentious penalty decision that ultimately settled the match in West Ham's favour.
When discounting the xG from that penalty, West Ham finished with 2.21 xG - just less than United's 2.34.
United had 18 shots and five big chances (the second-most after Brentford across the weekend's matches), but failed to put those opportunities away, apart from Casemiro's close-range header.
The soft defence that plagued Ten Hag's tenure, though, ultimately came back to bite them yet again.
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