NBA

NBA Game of the Week: Bulls hunting first win over the Warriors since 2017

By Sports Desk December 01, 2022

The Golden State Warriors (11-11) have a golden opportunity to climb back above .500 when they host the 9-12 Chicago Bulls on Thursday.

Both teams entered the season with lofty expectations, but have sputtered out of the gates, struggling in areas they are meant to excel in.

With four championships since 2015, the Warriors have been widely regarded as the greatest shooting team the game has ever seen, but the underlying factor of their greatest years has always been their defense.

Boasting the league's best defensive efficiency in their 2014-15 championship season, second-best for their 2016-17 title, and 11th for their 2017-18 crown – the Warriors rediscovered their dominance on that end of the floor this past season to finish as the second-best defense en route to another ring.

That has cratered this campaign, with Golden State currently allowing 113.4 points per 100 possessions for the 21st-ranked defense.

What that means is that some of the Warriors' point totals from their eighth-ranked offense are going to waste, having scored over 110 points in seven of their 11 losses so far.

Meanwhile, the Bulls have committed to offensively-minded scorers DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic and Zach Lavine as their core trio, but currently own the 22nd-best offense.

In a clash between two sides struggling to establish an identity, the result could simply come down to which side's X-factor shows up – or more specifically, which one shoots the lights out.

PIVOTAL PERFORMERS

Golden State Warriors - Klay Thompson

Klay Thompson is a Warriors legend, a future Hall-of-Famer and one of the greatest shooters in the history of the NBA – but he has never been less efficient than he is right now.

However, when Thompson is feeling it this season, the Warriors win. Shooting 35.5 per cent from the field and 32.5 per cent from deep in losses, Thompson's numbers skyrocket to 43.7 per cent from the field and 44.7 per cent on three-pointers in the 10 wins he has played in.

Only the Boston Celtics score a higher percentage of their points from three-pointers (41.7 per cent) than the Warriors (41.2 per cent), so it makes sense that when their secondary sharpshooter catches fire, good things happen.

Chicago Bulls - Zach Lavine

While the Warriors rely on a heavy dose of three-pointers to put up their points, the Bulls are the opposite, leading the league in their percentage of points that come from the mid-range (14.6 per cent).

This is primarily due to DeRozan's affinity for the mid-range, and in turn, it leaves them 28th in the percentage of points that come from the three-point line (27.4 per cent).

To outgun the Warriors, you need to score big, and the Bulls' best bet to get hot from deep is Zach Lavine.

Making 2.8 threes per game, he is the only Bulls player averaging more than Coby White's 1.5, and his win/loss splits are eerily similar to Thompson's.

He is hitting 3.6 threes at 43.9 per cent in wins, and 2.1 threes at 26.4 per cent in losses, indicating his outsized importance and responsibility for the interior-heavy Bulls offense.

KEY BATTLE - Can the Bulls slow down the Warriors' ball movement?

While the Bulls' offense has been disappointing, their defense has actually been a pleasant surprise, climbing from the 23rd-ranked unit last season up to the 11th-best this time around.

Golden State's porous defense and second-highest pace in the league could provide a perfect environment for the Bulls to put up a big score, so it may come down to if they can force Stephen Curry to beat them by himself.

While Curry has been spectacular, averaging 31.4 points, the Warriors lead the league in assists per game at 29.7, so if the Bulls can figure out how to force the Warriors into isolations and restrict their quick passing, they can force the reigning champions to play the game out of their comfort zone.

 

HEAD-TO-HEAD

This will be the first meeting between the Warriors and Bulls this campaign after two fixtures in the 2021-22 season – resulting in two convincing Golden State wins.

The champions-in-waiting hammered the Bulls 119-93 last November, before following it up with a 138-96 thrashing in January, making it 10 consecutive victories against Chicago dating back to 2017.

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    Dejounte Murray said the late Kobe Bryant would have been proud of his efforts after scoring a career-high 44 points to lead the Atalanta Hawks to another dramatic win over the Boston Celtics.

    The Hawks recovered from 30 points down to clinch a memorable 120-118 win over the league-leading Celtics on Monday, and they made it a double with Thursday's last-gasp overtime success.

    Murray sank 44 points, including the go-ahead jumper in the final second of overtime, to guide Atlanta to a 123-122 win – their fourth victory in as many games.

    Murray's 44 points came off 44 shots, which led him to recall how Los Angeles Lakers legend Bryant scored 41 points with 47 attempts against the Celtics back in 2002.

    The 27-year-old was not too concerned by his wastefulness after stepping up in the big moments, though.

    "I still feel like I played awful," Murray told reporters after the game. "I don't want to take that many shots. But I know Kobe would be proud of me!

    "I'm just built for those moments. I'm a confident guy."

    Occupying the final Play-In spot in the Eastern Conference with a 34-39 record, the Hawks are now within one game of the ninth seed, the Chicago Bulls.

    Murray knows the scale of the statement they have made by beating the Celtics twice in four days, adding: "That's the best team in the league, and we competed.

    "We're not tanking, we're not trying to lose. We're trying to win games and see how high we can get."

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    Boston coach Joe Mazzulla knows his team won't be able to switch off if they face the Hawks again, saying: "That's a really good team."

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    Dejounte Murray hit a go-ahead jumper in the final second of overtime and finished with 44 points in the Atlanta Hawks’ 123-122 win over the Boston Celtics on Thursday.

    Murray scored all of Atlanta’s 11 points in the extra period, answering with his winning shot six seconds after Jaylen Brown’s jumper put the Celtics on top.

    Atlanta defeated league-leading Boston for the second time in four days after it rallied from a 30-point deficit for a stunning 120-118 victory on Monday.

    Bogdan Bogdanović scored 24 points and De’Andre Hunter added 21 with 13 rebounds to help the Hawks match a season high with their fourth straight win.

    Jayson Tatum had 31 points and 13 rebounds and Kristaps Porzingis scored 20 points for the Celtics, who have already clinched the top spot in the Eastern Conference.

     

    Williamson, McCollum power Pelicans

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    Jonas Valanciunas had 17 points and 10 rebounds and Trey Murphy contributed 15 and 11 boards as the Pelicans won despite misfiring on 24 of 32 from 3-point range and shooting just 39.6 percent (36 of 91) overall.

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  • Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race

    The Championship returns from the international break with, much like the Premier League, a three-horse tussle at the top.

    Leicester City, having led the standings for the majority of the campaign, now find themselves in second place behind Leeds United, albeit with a game in hand on the in-form Whites.

    The Foxes are grappling with off-pitch issues, and a return to form when they face Bristol City on Friday would go far to restoring some momentum.

    Leeds, on the other hand, have won 12 of their last 13 Championship fixtures, dropping points just once in that run.

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    Ipswich Town

    Of these three teams, Ipswich have scored the most goals, with Kieran McKenna's side netting 80 across their 38 matches - an average of 2.1 per game. That makes the Tractor Boys the leading scorers in the league, while they are also the leading team for non-penalty goals (78).

    Ipswich have, however, greatly outperformed their expected goals (xG) of 64.2, while also greatly exceeding their non-penalty xG (61.8). When it comes to those metrics, they rank fourth and second in the second tier respectively. Their expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 69.5 shows their finishing has been above the standard of what would be anticipated from the quality of chances, and they rank third in the league in this aspect.

    Unsurprisingly, Ipswich lead the way for shots (590), while they rank second for shots on target (214). They are fourth in the Championship for shot conversion rate (13.5 per cent), big chances (94) and big chances scored (42). Their big-chance conversion rate, of 44.68, stands as the sixth best in the competition.

    But how do Ipswich create their chances? Well, they aren't afraid to send crosses into the area, with their 114 successful open-play crosses ranking second. However, it's Ipswich's high press that really stands out.

    They have forced 309 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 yards of the opponent's goal), at an average of 8.1 per match. They lead the league for shot-ending high turnovers, with 65, albeit they are tied for fifth when it comes to scoring goals from such scenarios (seven). McKenna's team are certainly able to go direct, too, given they rank down at 10th for sequences of 10+ passes. 

     

    Don't bet against Ipswich if they go behind, meanwhile. They have gained 28 points from a losing position, topping the Championship.

    And when they get the lead, Ipswich typically hold onto it, with only two teams dropping fewer points from a winning position.

    Leicester City

    Ranking behind Ipswich for goals scored are Leicester, with 74 to their name. The Foxes are also second in the Championship for xG (68) and for xGOT (73.5).

    It is worth noting that Leicester have been more reliant on penalties, having scored 12 goals from the spot. 

    Leicester have mustered the fifth-highest tally of shots (525), while their 189 shots on target ranks fourth in the division.

    But in which metrics do Leicester top the Championship? Enzo Maresca's team lead the way for shot conversion (14.1 per cent), big chances (111) and big chances scored (50).

    Leicester are hardly a pressing machine off the ball, having averaged just 7.4 high turnovers per game, but what the Foxes lack in quantity they make up for in quality – they have scored a joint league-leading eight goals from those situations.

    Maresca's men do not particularly look to cross at a high volume, though when they do put deliveries in, they are often on point. Leicester are 19th out of 24 teams for total open-play crosses, yet they rank third for successful open-play deliveries.

    If teams go ahead against Leicester, however, then the Foxes are not the best at coming from behind, having gained only 10 points from such positions this term.

    Leeds United

    So, what about Leeds, the league leaders heading into the Easter weekend?

    Leeds have accumulated more xG than any other Championship team, at 68.4, while 62.9 of that total has come from non-penalty shots. However, they rank down in fourth for both goals (70) and non-penalty goals (65). Interestingly, the Whites' xGOT is 69.2, so they have been finishing slightly above what would be expected from chances they have crafted.

     

    Daniel Farke's team are the Championship leaders for high turnovers, with 319, while their average of 11 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which measures how often a team presses their opponent, is the second highest in the competition.

    Leeds have been exceptionally effective from this high press, too. They have had the third-highest shots (61) and, along with Leicester, lead the Championship for goal-ending high turnovers, with eight.

    The Whites may only have got 201 of their 586 shots on target, with an 11.9 per cent shot conversion rate, but they are excellent at creating quality chances, ranking second for big chances (102), which are defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score.

    Should Leeds take a lead, then they are excellent at holding onto it. They have dropped the fewest points (four) of any Championship team from winning positions, while they rank second for points gained from losing positions (21).

    Unlike Leicester or Ipswich, there is no focus at all on crossing, or quality crossing, from Leeds. Farke's side actually rank 23rd for both open-play crosses and successful open-play deliveries. Perhaps forcing them wide will be the only way their opponents can keep them out in the run-in?

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