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• Premier League MD11: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

  The final international break of 2024 is here, and we can safely say the Premier League is starting to take shape.

  Opta's supercomputer now has Liverpool, who are five points clear at the top following their win over Aston Villa on Saturday, as the favourites to go on and win the title.

  Manchester City lost a fourth straight game in all competitions as they went down 2-1 at Brighton, while Chelsea and Arsenal are third and fourth respectively after sharing the points.

  When assessing the underlying metrics, it looks like Sunday's draw at Stamford Bridge was a fair result, but that was not the case across the board this weekend.

  Here, we pick out the lucky winners and unlucky losers from matchday 11.

  Lucky winners: Manchester United

  Manchester United are now under new management, with Ruben Amorim officially starting as head coach on Monday. But interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy ensured he went out with a high as the Red Devils beat Leicester City 3-0 on Sunday.

  However, it is fair to say United were rather fortunate to net three times at Old Trafford, with the data suggesting they did not even create chances worthy of one goal, never mind three.

  United's expected goals (xG) was 0.69, the third-lowest total in the league this weekend and behind Leicester's 0.77.

  Bruno Fernandes scored one and set up another on his 250th appearance for the club, either side of Victor Kristiansen's own goal, but from 13 shots, United, who had only 17 touches in Leicester's box, really did not create much in the way of quality opportunities.

  Indeed, their attacking quality instead told, with Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho finishing well. At the other end, Leicester failed to make their moments count, despite hitting the target with five of their six shots.

  Spare a thought for Erik ten Hag, given when he was in charge, United's attack was underperforming. Now Amorim just needs to pick up where Van Nistelrooy left off...

  Unlucky losers: Manchester City

  Man City are suddenly the crisis club, having lost four straight games for the first time since August 2006. Pep Guardiola, meanwhile, has lost four games in a row in all competitions for the very first time in his managerial career.

  Erling Haaland also lost a Premier League match in which he scored a goal for the very first time, having put City ahead before Joao Pedro and Matt O'Riley clinched the points for Brighton.

   

  Brighton finished with 2.29 xG, so they did deserve to score at least twice. However, City can still consider themselves unfortunate, given their 2.22 xG was the third-highest of any team across the weekend.

  Their post-shot expected goals on target (xGoT) also rose to 2.98, showing that Brighton goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen was on fine form.

  City also created five big chances, missing four of them, and hit the woodwork once. That being said, they conceded eight big chances, with Brighton letting them off for six of those, so it was not a good day at the office for Guardiola.

  Unlucky losers: Bournemouth

  If Man City were unfortunate, then the team to have created the highest xG (2.61) this past weekend – Bournemouth – can consider themselves hard done by.

  Andoni Iraola claimed his team were worthy of the three points against Brentford, despite the Cherries losing 3-2, and the underlying metrics suggest the Spaniard was fair in his assessment.

   

  Only Tottenham (35 in their loss against Ipswich Town) had more touches in the opponent's box than Bournemouth's 34 at the Gtech Community Stadium, but Iraola's side were made to pay for some dismal finishing.

  Their xGoT dropped to 1.68, while Brentford's rose from 1.48 xG to 1.84 xGoT – essentially, the level of finishing from Brentford's players increased the likelihood they would score, while Bournemouth's finishing was below what would have been anticipated based on the quality of chances they had. That is further backed up by the fact the Cherries only got three of their 15 attempts on target.

• The Numbers Game: Can Chelsea dent title hopes of misfiring Gunners?

  Ten matches into the Premier League season, Arsenal's hopes of ending their long wait for a league title are already in danger.

  Last week's 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United made it just seven points from five games, and they now trail leaders Liverpool by seven points.

  Injuries and suspensions have taken their toll on Arteta's men, and things do not get much easier for them on Sunday, against a Chelsea team currently above them on goal difference.

  Enzo Maresca's Blues fought back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United last time out, and only Manchester City and Liverpool have beaten them since the Italian took over.

  We delve into the Opta data to preview Sunday's headline fixture at Stamford Bridge.

  What's expected?

  Given the two sides are only separated on goal difference ahead of Sunday's match, the Opta supercomputer finds it difficult to split. 

  Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Arsenal were victorious in 41.2%, giving them a slight edge over their hosts, who are a 33.2% shot.

  The likelihood of a draw is rated at 25.6%, but you sense Arsenal need to take all three points after seeing their hopes of winning the title drop to 4.4% in Opta's season predictions. Chelsea's own hopes are rated at 0.3%, with City (61.9%) still clear favourites ahead of Liverpool (33.4%).

   

  Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (two draws, six defeats), a 2-0 away win in August 2021. The Gunners have managed three victories in their last four league trips to Stamford Bridge (one draw) – as many victories as they recorded in their previous 20 visits (seven draws, 10 defeats).

  Arsenal have also won their last six Premier League London derby matches by an aggregate score of 22-3, winning six of those matches by five or more goals.

  One such occasion was a 5-0 rout of Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium last April, their biggest-ever margin of victory against the Blues in all competitions.

  Blues eye statement victory

  When the Premier League fixture list was drawn up, even the most optimistic Chelsea fan may have struggled to visualise the Blues sitting ahead of Arsenal in the table after 10 games.

  But Maresca's side have shown promising signs in the early stages of his tenure. Chelsea's last two Premier League defeats this season have come against last season's top three teams – 0-5 versus Arsenal in April, 0-2 versus City in August and 1-2 against Liverpool in October.

  They are unbeaten in their last 21 matches against all other teams, winning 14 and drawing seven while scoring 57 goals in total across those games.

  The future looks bright for Chelsea, who fielded a starting lineup with an average age of 23 years and 96 days at Old Trafford last week – their youngest-ever XI for a Premier League match against Manchester United.

  However, they are still waiting on a first statement win under Maresca, and getting one over on the Gunners would earn him plenty of goodwill among the fans.

  Their chances could be decided by the fitness of Cole Palmer, who is an injury doubt after suffering a knock against United.

   

  He opened the scoring when the Blues last welcomed Arsenal to west London for a 2-2 draw last October, scoring his first Premier League goal at Stamford Bridge.

  Since then, he has more home goals in the competition than any other player (21), also leading the way for goal involvements (12 – seven goals, five assists, alongside Mohamed Salah) and open-play chances created in 2024-25.

  Can fit-again Odegaard get Gunners firing?

  Last season, Arsenal won 42 of their 89 Premier League points on their travels, taking nine points from five matches at the homes of their Big Six rivals. 

  This campaign, however, their failure to hit top form on the road has threatened to end their latest title tilt before it truly got going. 

  Arsenal have collected seven points from five away matches this term, the same amount as Brighton and fewer than Liverpool (13), Nottingham Forest (11), Chelsea, City and Aston Villa (all 10).

  While Arteta has long preached the importance of control, Arsenal have simply not been good enough going forward in those matches. They have attempted just 37 shots on the road in the Premier League this season (7.4 per game), with only Brentford (seven) averaging fewer per away match across the entire division.

   

  The fact Arsenal played significant amounts of time at Manchester City and Bournemouth with a numerical disadvantage likely plays a part, but the fact five teams have attempted at least twice as many shots on the road does not make for good reading (Manchester City 90, Tottenham 83, Crystal Palace 79, Bournemouth 78 and Manchester United 74).

  Martin Odegaard's return to training after two months out with an ankle injury is a major boost, with the Norwegian having led all players in the Premier League for expected assists (11.17 xA) and chances created from open play (88) last season.

  Arsenal have actually outperformed their underlying attacking metrics this campaign, netting 17 league goals from 15.75 expected goals (xG), so their finishing does not appear to be an issue. The fact they rank eighth in the league for xG does, however, suggest chance creation is a problem.

  Arteta will hope Odegaard's return can make the difference, or a title challenge may prove a bridge too far. The last time they lost three successive away Premier League games was in December 2021, and they went on to miss out on a top-four finish that season.

  The Norwegian was a late substitute as they were beaten 1-0 by Inter in the Champions League on Wednesday. They have now lost three of their last six games in all competitions, as many as their previous 32 beforehand.

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Chelsea – Nicolas Jackson 

  Since the start of last season, Chelsea striker Jackson has been involved in more London derby goals than any other player in the Premier League (10 goals, two assists).

  All of his 12 involvements have come in his last nine such appearances, and he already has six Premier League goals this term.

   

  Arsenal – Bukayo Saka 

  Saka has provided more assists than any other player in the Premier League this season (seven). 

  He has also either scored (once) or assisted (twice) a goal in each of his last three away games against Chelsea in the Premier League, with Sergio Aguero (2013 to 2017) and Javier Hernandez (2012 to 2018) the only visiting players to do so in four consecutive appearances.

• Premier League MD10: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

  We are now 10 games into the Premier League season and the table is beginning to take shape, but that does not mean there is no room for an upset or two.

  On Saturday, both Manchester City and Arsenal fell to surprise defeats at Bournemouth and Newcastle United respectively. 

  It was only the third time since the start of 2017-18 that both of the previous season's top two teams had lost on the same day in the Premier League, after March 7, 2021 and January 14, 2023.

  Pep Guardiola's champions could have few complaints about the result at the Vitality Stadium, where Andoni Iraola's Cherries won the expected goals (xG) battle by 2.04 to 1.56.

  But which other games featured a lucky winner or an unlucky loser? We delve into the Opta data to find out.

  Unlucky losers: Arsenal

  The weekend's action began with Arsenal travelling to St James' Park to face Newcastle, with Mikel Arteta's side chasing a victory to move within a point of leaders Liverpool.

  However, they succumbed to a 1-0 defeat as Alexander Isak's early goal proved enough for Newcastle to make it three wins in their last four home league games against Arsenal (one loss).

  The Gunners could count themselves unlucky to come away from Tyneside with nothing, however, after limiting Newcastle to a measly 0.53 xG – 0.25 of which came from the chance for Isak's goal.

  Only West Ham, who played half of their defeat to Nottingham Forest with 10 men, created a lower figure across the nine games to take place this weekend, with 0.13 xG.

  Arsenal were far from their free-flowing best, though, only recording 10 attempts worth 1.05 xG themselves. They have averaged just 7.4 shots per game in their away Premier League matches this season, with only Brentford (7.5) taking fewer.

   

  Lucky winners: Southampton 

  Just two teams – Wolves and Ipswich Town – remain without a victory in the Premier League after Southampton finally got off the mark by beating Everton 1-0 at St Mary's.

  Russell Martin's team accumulated just 0.74 xG to Everton's 1.56, but Adam Armstrong's strike five minutes from time handed them a huge three points in their fight for safety.

  While Beto, who headed against the crossbar just 25 seconds before Armstrong's winner, and Jack Harrison spurned great chances for the Toffees, Southampton were also grateful for a late VAR intervention, as the former saw a potential leveller chalked off for a marginal offside call.

  It was the first time Everton had failed to score against Southampton in the Premier League since February 2022, bringing their five-match unbeaten run in the competition to a halt.

   

  Unlucky losers: Crystal Palace

  Southampton ended the weekend in 19th, above winless Wolves after they were pegged back in a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace at Molineux.

  Marc Guehi salvaged a draw for the Eagles, who were without star men Adam Wharton and Eberechi Eze yet arguably still did enough to leave the West Midlands with all three points.

  They racked up 19 shots totalling 2.51 xG to their hosts' 11, which had a total value of 1.51 xG. Palace's xG figure was the highest in the Premier League this weekend, but they were missing their shooting boots as Ismaila Sarr squandered two glorious chances when they were a goal to the good in the second half. 

  With both defences struggling, this was only the second Premier League game of the season to be goalless at half-time but see both sides score at least twice in the second half, after Everton 2-3 Bournemouth in August.

  There could have been a fifth goal in stoppage time, too, as Jean-Phillipe Mateta saw a potential winner disallowed for a foul on Jose Sa in the build-up. Wolves – and their under-fire head coach Gary O'Neil – arguably got away with one.

   

  Lucky winners: Chelsea 

  Sunday's late game saw Chelsea fight back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United at Old Trafford, denying Ruud van Nistelrooy a first Premier League win as the Red Devils' interim head coach.

  Moises Caicedo's well-taken volley cancelled out Bruno Fernandes' penalty and Chelsea arguably looked the more likely victors in the second half, but they only generated 1.1 xG from their 12 attempts – and just 0.29 from six after the interval.

  United, meanwhile, had chances worth 1.98 xG, though Fernandes' spot-kick – with an xG value of 0.79 – was a major contributing factor.

  Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho squandered decent opportunities for United, though, and incoming boss Ruben Amorim has plenty of work to do with their attackers.

  United have scored just nine goals in 10 Premier League games this season – their worst record through 10 matches of any league campaign since 1973-74 (also nine).

  Fans of a certain vintage will need no reminder of what happened at the end of that season – United were relegated from the First Division, their fate sealed by club legend Denis Law scoring against them with a nonchalant backheel, while representing rivals Man City.