Title races are the best, aren't they?
Months of games, so many ups and downs, goals scored and conceded, and yet it can all still come down to the finest margins in the closing minutes of the last day.
To paraphrase Homer Simpson, the winner is showered with praise; the loser is taunted and booed until my throat is sore.
With one matchday left, the title races in both Serie A and the Premier League are going to the final 90 minutes. Milan and Manchester City have their destinies in their own hands, but Inter and Liverpool are looking to respectively pounce on any stumble.
There is the potential for exceptional drama in Italy and England, but can the Nerazzurri and the Reds have much hope of pulling off the improbable and wrestling the respective title from their rivals?
Stats Perform has taken a look at some of the more dramatic title races from recent history that show anything is possible.
Every goal matters
The Eredivisie provided about as tense a finish as you could imagine in 2006-07, with PSV Eindhoven and Ajax unsurprisingly the main characters.
A strong title defence from Ronald Koeman's PSV began with 18 wins from 21 games, and just one defeat.
However, losing four and drawing four of their next 12 games coupled with Ajax winning five of six leading into the final day meant they were neck and neck on points heading into the last game.
Despite being behind on goal difference, a tremendous effort from PSV saw them pip their rivals after an emphatic 5-1 win over Vitesse, while Ajax could only muster a 2-0 victory over Willem II, losing the title by a single goal.
When goals made no difference in LaLiga
In the same season, Real Madrid made a disappointing start in LaLiga, drawing their first game 0-0 with Villarreal at home before going on to lose seven of their first 21 league matches.
After drawing four games in a row between mid-February and mid-March, title hopes seemed to be over for Fabio Capello's men, only for nine wins in 11 games to send them into the final day level on points with Barcelona.
Barca thrashed Gimnastic 5-1 away from home to do their bit, but Madrid eased to a 3-1 win against Real Mallorca at the Santiago Bernabeu.
The Blaugrana had a significantly better goal difference of +45 compared to Madrid's +26, but that mattered not as the tie-breaker came down to head-to-head record, which was in Los Blancos' favour having beaten Barca 2-0 at home and drawn 3-3 at Camp Nou.
"Agueroooooo!"
Following Sheikh Mansour's takeover of Manchester City in 2008, the club had grown year-on-year and by the 2011-12 season, felt they were ready to mount a challenge at the top of the Premier League.
Roberto Mancini's side started well enough, winning 11 of their first 12 games, but three defeats across December and January dented hopes, while two losses and two draws in a five-game period in March and April all but killed them.
That was until five wins in a row coincided with Manchester United losing to Wigan Athletic and dramatically drawing 4-4 with Everton at Old Trafford.
City beating United on matchday 36 swung things in the Sky Blues' favour, and they went into the last day needing only a win against lowly QPR to seal it.
In typical fashion, they made it hard work for themselves, finding themselves 2-1 down heading towards the 90th minute. United had won 1-0 at Sunderland, which meant City needed two goals or they would have lost the title in agonising fashion.
An Edin Dzeko header made it 2-2, before Mario Balotelli slid in Sergio Aguero for one of the most famous goals in English football history, giving City their first top-flight title since 1969.
The ultimate last day head-to-head
It was like something out of a Hollywood film. All the previous nine LaLiga titles had been won by Clasico giants Barcelona and Real Madrid, but in 2013-14, Atletico Madrid believed they could spoil the party.
Barca were the pacesetters, winning 13 of their first 14 games, while Real Madrid were struggling after losing to both Atletico and Barca.
Diego Simeone led his team to an incredible 16 wins from their first 18 games, but a 0-0 draw with Barca made it look like it would be the tightest of run-ins.
Indeed it was, with Real coming back to the party after an 18-match unbeaten run, though back-to-back defeats to Barca and Sevilla stopped them in their tracks.
Gerardo Martino's Barca were wobbling too, losing three out of seven games between February and March, and then drawing with Getafe and Elche to give Atletico their chance on the final day.
As if it could not have been more dramatic, Atletico went into the last game three points clear, but needing a point to clinch the title, away at Barcelona.
Alexis Sanchez opened the scoring for the Blaugrana, but Diego Godin's header handed the crown to Atletico.
When six were not on the beach
You may not be as familiar with this final day, but it stands as one of the most remarkable in the history of the game.
Never mind two or three, there were six clubs that could still claim the Ligue 2 title going into the final round of matches in 2016-17.
Strasbourg, Amiens, Troyes, Lens, Brest and Nimes all in with a shout with one game remaining, all separated by three points at most.
Technically, the drama was not really with the winner of the title, but the other automatic promotion spot that was up for grabs, with Strasbourg able to hold on to top spot following a nervy 2-1 win against Bourg-Peronnas, but it was a 96th-minute strike from Emmanuel Bourgaud sealing a 2-1 win at Stade Reims for Amiens that provided unbelievable drama, taking the aptly named Unicorns from sixth to second.
I did not think I would be advising Inter and Liverpool to go into their games with an "Amiens mindset", but there we are.
New England Revolution v Inter Miami: Porter targets 'mini season' as Messi comes to town
Coach Caleb Porter will treat the New England Revolution's next eight games as a "mini season", as the MLS strugglers prepare to welcome Inter Miami to Gillette Stadium on Saturday.
The Revs sit last in the Eastern Conference standings with just four points from their first eight games of 2024, having lost their last two against New York City (0-2) and Toronto FC (0-1).
Miami, meanwhile, are setting the pace in the East with 18 points from 10 matches, Lionel Messi scoring twice to help Gerardo Martino's team to a 3-1 win over Nashville SC last time out.
Having started to come under pressure just five months into his reign, Porter says the Revs should approach Saturday's match with a clean slate.
"The first eight games weren't good enough in terms of our record, points, goals for, goals against," Porter said. "Bottom line, it wasn't good enough.
"Right now, it's almost a new mini season, these next eight games. What's our record going to be at the end of these eight games?"
Defender Nick Lima, meanwhile, called on the Revs to stay calm as he pointed out how quickly things can change in MLS.
"Things happen fast in this league, man," he said. "We're one or two games away, then you're fighting for a playoff spot already, and who knows what happens from there?"
The Revs could be in luck for Saturday's match, with reports suggesting the artificial turf used in Foxborough could cause Miami to think twice about risking some of their stars.
Jordi Alba is injured and Luis Suarez may be held back, given his history of knee issues, but Miami full-back Julian Gressel expects Messi to feature.
"I will ask when we're preparing for the game, but I'm sure we'll find out who will be available," Gressel said during an appearance on the Player/Manager podcast.
"But he [Suarez] is the only one who has a question mark. Of course, Alba's hurt."
Asked if Martino may decide against risking Messi, he added: "Not from what I've heard."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
New England Revolution – Tomas Chancalay
New England are the lowest scoring team in MLS with just five goals this year, despite attempting 14 shots per match, above the league average of 12.8. The Revs' 4.5 per cent conversion rate is the worst in MLS, with every other team scoring with at least 7 per cent of their shots this year.
Chancalay has been one of the Revs' worst offenders, failing to score a single goal from a team-high tally of 22 shots this year, totalling 2.31 expected goals (xG). He has also missed a team-high four big chances this campaign, as defined by Opta.
Inter Miami – Lionel Messi
Messi has contributed to a goal in nine straight matches in all competitions, scoring nine goals and recording five assists in total, the second time he has enjoyed such a run since joining Miami (also doing so between June 21 and August 26 last year).
The Argentina great has contributed to at least one goal in 19 of his first 23 appearances for Miami in all competitions (20 goals, 10 assists). As ever, if Messi plays, everything will go through him.
MATCH PREDICTION – NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION WIN
With four points from eight matches, New England have made their worst start to a season in club history.
Their 1-0 defeat to Toronto last time out was their sixth of the campaign, one more than they suffered during the entirety of the 2021 season, when they won the Supporters' Shield (22 wins, seven draws, five defeats).
However, they may just feel home advantage gives them a chance of upsetting Messi and company on Saturday. After the visiting team won both meetings between the Revs and Miami in the 2021 season, the home side won all four meetings across the following two campaigns.
New England's three victories over the Herons have come by a combined scoreline of 10-1, while Miami's three wins over the Revs have all come by one-goal margins (6-3 on aggregate).
Miami have only won two of their last eight away league matches (two draws, four defeats), and given the likelihood of at least one of their big names being rested, the Revs may fancy their chances.
Should Messi be rested, Miami have only won one of their four matches without him in MLS this season (one draw, two losses), taking one point per game compared to 2.3 with the Argentine.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
New England Revolution – 54.2%
Inter Miami – 20.4%
Draw – 25.4%
Women's Super League: All to play for with three weeks to go
With just three matchweeks to go in the Women's Super League, it really is all to play for.
Manchester City lead the pack, three points ahead of rivals Chelsea. The Blues have a game in hand so can even things up, but are also behind the Citizens on both goal difference and goals scored.
Bristol City are all but down and will drop to the Championship if they lose at home to Man City and West Ham can get a win at Aston Villa, with both of those matches taking place on Sunday.
Arsenal, meanwhile, travel to Everton for the early kick-off. The Gunners have won each of their last 16 WSL games against Everton, the joint-longest winning run by a team against a single opponent in the competition's history (Manchester City also managed 16 against Everton).
Jonas Eidevall's side will be buoyant after securing Champions League qualification for next season, but they have not given up on chasing down the leaders, as they start the weekend six points off the pace.
Arsenal's form on the road has been the chink in their armour this season. Three of Arsenal’s WSL defeats this term have come away from home (versus Tottenham, West Ham and Chelsea), though the Gunners haven’t lost outside of London in the competition since April 2023, in a 1-0 defeat to Manchester United, going eight unbeaten since then (seven wins, one draw).
The Toffees, however, are also in good spirits after beating Brighton 2-1 last time out. Everton will be looking to win successive WSL games for just the second time this season. Four of their five wins this campaign have now come away from home, however.
One to watch in this encounter will be Beth Mead, who is finding the form that she was displaying before suffering the anterior cruciate ligament injury which kept her out for almost 12 months.
Mead has scored four goals in her last two WSL appearances, netting braces against both Bristol City and Leicester City. This is only the second time the England star has done so in back-to-back outings in the competition, also doing so for Sunderland in July 2015 (versus Chelsea and Bristol City)
Elsewhere, Tottenham host Brighton in a mid-table clash. Tottenham are unbeaten in four previous home games against Brighton in WSL play (three wins, one draw), drawing this fixture 2-2 last season at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
They will be looking to build momentum ahead of next month's FA Cup final against Manchester United, but the Seagulls could provide them with a stern test.
Brighton are unbeaten in their last three away WSL games (two wins, one draw), their longest-ever streak on the road in the competition; the Seagulls have scored 10 goals in four away games under Mikey Harris.
Aston Villa welcome West Ham to Villa Park, having struggled to hit the heights they reached last season. Winless in their last three WSL games (one draw, two defeats), Villa are on their longest run without victory since losing their opening five league matches of the season.
The Hammers are teetering on the brink of the relegation zone, but a win against Villa would secure their WSL status for another season.
No side in the WSL this season has scored fewer goals than West Ham (17), whilst they are one of only two sides in the competition – alongside Arsenal - to be underperforming their expected goals (xG) figures, scoring their 17 goals from chances with an xG total of 20.7 (-3.7).
Another reason why they find themselves in such a precarious position is they have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last eight away WSL games (one win, one draw, six defeats), the second-longest ongoing streak in the competition, behind only Bristol City (21).
Despite securing a place in the FA Cup final, Mark Skinner's Manchester United team have found this campaign a challenge after being so prominent in last season's title race.
The Red Devils began the season with doubts over the future of their star shot-stopper Mary Earps, with United rejecting a world-record offer from Arsenal for her services.
Earps is United's leading-appearance maker in the Women's Super League and could play her 100th game in the competition for the Red Devils this weekend; since her debut for the club in September 2019, the England international has recorded more clean sheets in the top flight than any other goalkeeper (45).
Leicester, United's opponents on Sunday, are looking to change their fortunes but have lost their last two games and could lose three in a row for the first time since December 2022 (a run of five).
Manchester City will look to go six points clear of Chelsea in the final game of the weekend. Chelsea are not in action until midweek due to their involvement in the Champions League semi-finals, with the Blues taking a 1-0 first-leg lead over Barcelona into Saturday's second leg at Stamford Bridge.
The Citizens know they need to keep their foot on the throttle as they pursue their first WSL title since 2016, a drought Gareth's Taylor's team are keen to end.
Their striker Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw leads the WSL scoring charts this season with 21 goals to her name. However, she limped off last time out and it is thought she may now miss the rest of the campaign through injury. Since the start of last season, she has recorded 51 WSL goal contributions – the most of any player (41 goals, 10 assists).
City will also be keen to further boost their goal tally as the title race could come down to goals scored, should Chelsea win their games in hand and both sides match each other's results for the rest of the season.
City have scored in each of their last 18 away WSL games (38 goals), the longest such streak they've ever managed in the competition's history.
Taylor's side have been ruthless this campaign, scoring 54 goals, with the likes of Lauren Hemp, Mary Fowler, Chloe Kelly and Jess Park all contributing. Only Shaw (24) has recorded more combined goals and assists than Hemp (15) in 2023-24.
Bristol City are the team tasked with stopping Taylor's juggernaut, and the Robins have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 29 WSL games, the longest such run any side has ever endured in the competition's history.
With the title race as close as ever and bottom clubs still fighting for survival, it promises to be another exciting weekend in the WSL
Skriniar hails PSG team-mates Mbappe and Dembele as best in the world
Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele were hailed as two of the best players in the world right now by Paris Saint-Germain team-mate Milan Skriniar after their starring roles in a 4-1 triumph over Lorient.
The duo were each on target twice at the Stade du Moustoir in Wednesday's contest as Luis Enrique's men took another step closer to the Ligue 1 title.
Speaking to RMC Sport, centre-back Skriniar had high praise for PSG's superstar duo after a game where he felt the team were not at their best.
"I don't think it was our best performance, because at 2-0, we could have controlled the match better," he said.
"We lost too many easy balls but we know that up front we are very strong. I think we have the two best players in the world [Mbappe and Dembele] at the moment so we are happy for the victory.
"For me, they are the two best players in the world. We know their qualities, they help always the team with their goals, with their actions, with everything they do.
"It's easy to play with them."
PSG are not quite over the line in Ligue 1 yet as second-placed Monaco defeated Lille 1-0 later on Wednesday.
It means PSG are 11 points clear of their rivals with only four games remaining and the title will be theirs with victory over Le Havre at the Parc des Princes on Saturday.
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