Three matchdays remain in Serie A, and yet there is plenty still to be decided at both ends of the table – not least which side will be crowned champions.
Milan occupy top spot in their quest for a first Scudetto since 2011, but fierce rivals Inter are just two points behind and arguably have an easier set of fixtures to conclude the campaign.
Napoli and Juventus are not officially out of the title race just yet, though they are seven and eight points off first place respectively, therefore requiring a remarkable set of results.
Both Napoli and Juventus are already assured of a top-four finish, but there are several other teams still battling it out for the three remaining European spots.
Venezia appear doomed at the opposite end of the table after losing to fellow strugglers Salernitana on Thursday, with the latter's victory lifting them out of the bottom three – in all, six teams remain in trouble.
But just how will the remaining two and a half weeks of the season unfold? Using the Stats Perform League Prediction Model, we can try to forecast the final standings.
Created by Stats Perform AI using Opta data, the model has analysed the division to assign percentages to potential outcomes for each club.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on teams' attacking and defensive qualities, which considers four years' worth of results.
Weighting is based on recency and the quality of opposition, with the rest of the matches then simulated 10,000 times to calculate the likelihood of each outcome.
Let's take a look...
MILAN TO SEE THE JOB THROUGH
Milan still have Hellas Verona (ninth), Atalanta (eighth) and Sassuolo (11th) to face, whereas Inter's final fixtures are against Empoli (14th), Cagliari (18th) and Sampdoria (15th).
However, it is worth noting that if they finish level on points, Milan would be crowned champions by virtue of a superior head-to-read record against their rivals this term.
With that in mind, while Inter are only two points behind, they essentially need to take three more points than Milan over the final three matchdays.
And our model suggests the Rossoneri have a 62 per cent chance of retaining top spot, compared to a 37.7 per cent chance of defending champions Inter overtaking them.
Just to highlight how unlikely it is either Napoli or Juventus will pip the current top two to the summit, they have a 0.2 and 0.1 per cent chance of winning the title respectively.
A ROME ONE-TWO FOR EUROPA LEAGUE?
The Champions League places may now officially be wrapped up, but five teams are still battling it out for the three remaining European berths.
The sides that finish in fifth and sixth, currently occupied by Roma and Lazio, will qualify for the Europa League group stage.
Roma, according to the model, have a 59.1 per cent chance of nailing down fifth place – though if they were to drop to seventh, the Europa Conference League finalists could get into the Europa League by winning UEFA's third-tier competition.
Lazio would take great enjoyment from finishing above their neighbours and have a 36.9 per cent chance of doing so.
The first priority for Maurizio Sarri will be locking down sixth, though, and there is a 46.7 per cent likelihood of achieving that with Fiorentina three points further back.
ATALANTA TO PIP FIORENTINA
While the top six are forecast to remain where they are, our model predicts seventh-placed Fiorentina will miss out to Atalanta in the Europa Conference League play-off position.
After losing three games in a row, La Viola now have a 31.2 per cent chance of staying seventh, compared to 47.6 for Atalanta, whom they are currently level with on 56 points.
Verona are four points further back and that appears to be too big a gap to bridge, with the Gialloblu seemingly certain to remain in eighth.
Indeed, the 80.8 per cent likelihood of Verona finishing in that position is bettered only by the chances of Empoli staying 14th (90.2 per cent) and Venezia remaining bottom (87.4 per cent) given the points margin either side.
VENEZIA AND TWO OTHERS TO DESCEND
Thursday's 2-1 defeat away to Salernitana looks to have spelled the end for Venezia's brief stint back in the top flight as it leaves them seven points from safety. Their chances of escaping the drop sit at 0.1 per cent.
Salernitana still have a 36.2 per cent chance of dropping into the bottom three, but given they face the team directly below them – Cagliari – and Empoli in their next two games, they will surely like those odds.
Another win for Salernitana on Sunday would be massive at the bottom, as such a result will relegate Venezia and potentially Genoa, whom the model gives only a 1.2 per cent likelihood of climbing up to 17th.
Spezia and Sampdoria aren't quite out of the woods yet, but their five-point cushions should be enough to keep them in Serie A. Everything points to Sunday's contest being almost a straight relegation play-off between Salernitana and Cagliari.
The model suggests with a 63.3 per cent probability that Cagliari will go down, but their fate is in their own hands.
Napoli not going to San Siro to 'wave the white flag', says Conte
Antonio Conte has no intention of holding anything back when he returns to San Siro, as the top two face off in Serie A on Sunday.
The Italian revived Inter and helped them break Juventus's nine-year stranglehold on the Scudetto, stopping their run in the 2020-21 season to win the title for the first time since their treble-winning campaign in 2009-10.
Now at Napoli, a club that is looking to return to the heights of their 2022-23 title win, Conte's side sit top of Serie A with 25 points after 11 games - a point above Inter ahead of their upcoming clash.
"It's definitely nice to return to where I worked and won. Yes, two happy years," Conte told reporters.
"It was a wonderful experience that I carry within me, like all the past ones that I lived to the fullest."
Napoli's winning run in Serie A came to a grinding halt against Atalanta last weekend when Conte's side were beaten 3-0, and they have a poor recent record against Inter, having won just one of their last 10 Serie A matches against them.
Napoli are looking to avoid suffering two consecutive top-flight losses for the first time since last December, and Conte says he is in no mood to drop three points again.
"The three points is always important, it is inevitable that we face a team that today, for everything they have shown, is the strongest team," Conte added.
"We are not going to San Siro to wave the white flag before starting, but convinced to play our cards. Then we will see what happens. We are preparing in a major way, as we always do.
"It will be an important test, we will measure ourselves against the best, and it will be important to understand our progress. Do not forget that we arrive at the top of the table... and the objective is to remain at the top."
Napoli striker Romelu Lukaku has scored only one goal in his last four games, but when asked about his form, Conte said he was tired of questions about the Belgian striker.
"At every blessed conference, there is always the question about Lukaku. It becomes a bit - not annoying - but we are talking about the team. Lukaku's growth depends on the growth of the team," Conte said.
"But I am confident because I see them every day, they want to work and improve. I see a lot of commitment and I would not reduce it to a single player. It is not fair to the others."
Guardiola confident Man City can avoid fourth straight loss
Pep Guardiola is facing the prospect of losing four consecutive matches for the first time in his career but is confident Manchester City do not need extra reassurance.
All three of City's recent losses have come in different competitions, first falling to Tottenham in the EFL Cup round of 16 before following it up with defeats to Bournemouth in the Premier League and Sporting CP in the Champions League.
It is the first time the Citizens have been on such a run since doing so between May and August 2021, while in the same season, it is the first time since April 2018.
In the Premier League, Guardiola's men were on a 32-match unbeaten run before their defeat to Bournemouth, and they have only lost two consecutive top-flight matches three times under the Spaniard before.
The Spaniard has been vocal about his team's recent injury struggles, and will once again be without Jack Grealish, despite his recent England call-up, John Stones and Ruben Dias for the trip to Brighton on Saturday.
Bernardo Silva said the team were in a "dark place" after their game at Sporting on Tuesday, but Guardiola does not believe he needs to provide any extra motivation to help get his players back to winning ways.
"I don't think [the players need extra reassurance]. Of course, we are not used to losing three games in three different competitions, but it is football, and it has happened," Guardiola said.
"We know the reason why we struggle, but we are looking forward to this game and after the international break, and after that a few players will be back and recovered. All the little problems we have with players will be solved. I hope.
"There always is a first time [to lose four straight]. Hopefully, it is not the case.
"Twenty minutes against Fulham we were not good, against Bournemouth we were not good, but the rest of the games we were good. We are good. We will see what happens."
Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw's record-breaking hat-trick powers Manchester City to 4-0 victory Over Tottenham Hotspur Women
Reggae Girl Khadija "Bunny" Shaw delivered a historic performance on Friday, scoring a hat-trick that led Manchester City Women to a dominant 4-0 victory over Tottenham Hotspur Women in the Barclays Women's Super League (WSL). Shaw's incredible feat helped City extend their lead at the top of the table, reaching 19 points, four clear of Chelsea, who have played two games fewer.
Shaw, who has now scored seven goals in the league this season, wasted no time asserting her dominance, scoring just moments after kick-off. Bursting through on goal, she slotted the ball into the bottom corner, giving City an immediate 1-0 lead. In the 15th minute, Shaw struck again, towering over defenders to head home a looping cross from Lauren Hemp. Tottenham’s goalkeeper and fellow Jamaican, Rebecca Spencer, got a hand to it, but Shaw's powerful header proved unstoppable.
City continued to apply pressure, and in the 66th minute, Jill Roord added to the scoreline. After evading a challenge, Hemp found Roord in the box, who shifted the ball onto her left foot and fired it into the roof of the net, making it 3-0. Just a minute later, Shaw completed her hat-trick. Hemp, instrumental throughout, drove down the byline and delivered a precise cross into the box, where Shaw was perfectly positioned to knock it home.
Shaw's hat-trick set new records in the WSL. She became the first player to record three hat-tricks against the same team and broke her teammate Vivianne Miedema’s record with her sixth career hat-trick in the league.
Facing her fellow Reggae Girlz teammates Drew Spence and Rebecca Spencer, Shaw showed why she is one of the most prolific strikers in the league, continuing to propel Manchester City to the top of the WSL standings with her record-breaking performance.
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