EPL

The Numbers Game: Slot's Reds face Old Trafford test

By Sports Desk August 30, 2024

Two of the Premier League's biggest rivals meet at Old Trafford on Sunday, though it is fair to say there has been a gulf in class between these sides, at least over the course of a season, in recent campaigns.

This is, of course, Arne Slot's first game in charge of Liverpool against United. 

None of the Reds' last nine managers have won their first league meeting with the Red Devils, since Bob Paisley beat them 3-1 in November 1975. 

Meanwhile, George Kay is the only Liverpool manager to win his first away league game against United, winning 5-2 at Old Trafford in November 1936.

Will Slot be able to buck that trend on Sunday, putting out a statement regarding Liverpool's title aspirations in the process?

Ahead of the latest meeting between England's two most successful clubs, we look at all the best Opta facts surrounding the game.

What's expected?

It will surprise few to hear the Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool favourites for this one, with the Reds given a 48.4% chance of victory.

United, meanwhile, only came out on top in 28.2% of the simulations the model ran. The match was drawn in 23.4% of scenarios.

Liverpool have lost just one of their last six Premier League away games against United (two wins, three draws), while only Manchester City (nine) have won away at Old Trafford more often than the Reds (seven) in the competition's history. Is it any surprise they are favourites?

United have won just one of their last 12 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (five draws, six losses), beating them 2-1 at Old Trafford in their third game of the 2022-23 campaign.

However, United boss Erik ten Hag has got previous against Slot, having faced him four times in the Eredivisie. Slot's AZ beat Ten Hag's Ajax twice in 2019-20 before Ten Hag twice beat Slot's Feyenoord side in 2021-22. 

This will be the first Premier League game between two Dutch coaches since February 2016, when Guus Hiddink's Chelsea won 2-1 at Ronald Koeman's Southampton.

Ten Hag to unleash young guns?

Last season's FA Cup triumph, in all likelihood, preserved Ten Hag's status as United boss, and the high point in that run undoubtedly came against Liverpool in the last eight.

Going 2-1 down in normal time and 3-2 behind in the extra period, United twice found themselves on the brink of elimination, only to stage a miraculous comeback and steal a 4-3 win.

Amad Diallo was the hero on that occasion, scoring a dramatic 121st-minute winner before being sent off for removing his shirt in the wild celebrations that followed.

Diallo scored just his second Premier League goal in United's 2-1 defeat at Brighton and Hove Albion last time out, and with the Red Devils likely to play on the break against a confident Liverpool outfit, he could do more damage on Sunday.

The 22-year-old has registered 36 carries through his three appearances in the Community Shield and the Premier League in 2024-25, ranking fourth in the United squad behind centre-backs Lisandro Martinez (52) and Harry Maguire (41) and midfielder Kobbie Mainoo (37).

 

Many United fans have called for Diallo and Alejandro Garnacho to start on either flank, and an injury to Mason Mount could allow for that possibility this weekend, potentially with Marcus Rashford playing a central role.

Garnacho has two goal involvements (one goal, one assist) in all competitions this term, scoring in the Community Shield and assisting Joshua Zirkzee's winner against Fulham on matchday one in the Premier League. That is more than any other United player, despite the Argentine only playing 85 minutes overall. 

With Liverpool likely to leave space down the flanks, United's best route to victory could come via their young wide men.

Arne slots right in

It's been a case of so far, so good for Slot at Anfield. Liverpool have won their first two matches under their new boss, who has big shoes to fill following Jurgen Klopp's departure. 

Both of those victories have been by 2-0 scorelines, versus Ipswich Town and Brentford. Only twice before have they won each of their first three in a campaign without conceding, doing so in 2013-14 and 2018-19 – they beat United 1-0 on September 1 in their third game in 2013-14, so the omens are good.

Slot will be just as pleased with the Reds' performances, though, as he will be with their results. 

 

No team has had more shots than Liverpool in the Premier League this season (37), while the Reds also have the highest expected goals total (5.3) and the lowest expected goals against total (1.0) thus far.

Liverpool's pre-season was overshadowed by suggestions some of Klopp's most seasoned campaigners – most prominently Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk – could follow him through the exit door. However, both have made the transition to Slot's more possession-based style look serene.

Salah has already netted twice for Liverpool this season, and he is the highest-scoring visiting player to Old Trafford in Premier League history, with six goals. The Egyptian has netted in each of his last six away games against United in all competitions (nine goals in total).

Van Dijk, meanwhile, is set to make his 200th Premier League appearance for Liverpool, having been on the winning side in 139 of 199 outings to date, already the most wins any player has picked up in his first 200 for the club in the competition.

It will be intriguing to see how daring Slot's approach is, with Liverpool ranking fourth in the Premier League for possession share (62.2%), successful passes (1,172) and passes completed in the opposition half (537) through the first two matchdays.

A victory at Old Trafford, especially if achieved in a convincing manner, could provide lift-off for the Dutchman's reign.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Manchester United – Marcus Rashford

Rashford might well be United's best hope, particularly if they are forced to soak up pressure and hit Liverpool on the break. 

He has only scored more goals against Leicester City (eight) in all competitions than he has against Liverpool (seven). 

All seven of these strikes have come in his 10 appearances against them at Old Trafford, including an extra-time strike in last season's memorable 4-3 FA Cup victory.

Liverpool – Dominik Szoboszlai 

Szoboszlai has been involved in more attacking sequences (20 – four shots, five chances created and 11 build-up involvements) than any other player in the Premier League this season. 

Five other Liverpool players rank in the top 10 by that metric – Luis Diaz (19), Trent Alexander-Arnold (16), Salah and Andy Robertson (both 15).

Given United's tendency to give up space in midfield, the dynamic Hungarian could be the driving force for Liverpool.

 

Related items

  • Real Salt Lake v New England Revolution: Porter's visitors 'only scratching the surface' Real Salt Lake v New England Revolution: Porter's visitors 'only scratching the surface'

    Caleb Porter believes the New England Revolution are only "scratching the surface" of their true potential, with several key players back in form ahead of their visit to Real Salt Lake.

    The Revs trounced CF Montreal 5-0 on the road last time out in a triumphant return to MLS action after the Leagues Cup break, moving within two points of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

    Former league MVP Carles Gil and winger Dylan Borrero both returned to action in that game after dealing with injury problems, and Porter senses his team have turned a corner at an ideal time.

    "I don't think it is a coincidence when [Borrero] and Carles left, we were not quite as fluid," Porter said. 

    "We hung in, we hung around, we did it in different ways, we got a few draws and a win in the Leagues Cup. But you can see our level. 

    "That's what we want it to look like, and better. We are just scratching the surface. We’ve got to keep pushing and stay really hungry. 

    "We've got to go back to work and work even harder next week. We've got a very difficult game against Salt Lake on the road."

    Real Salt Lake, meanwhile, sit third in the West but were beaten 2-0 by the struggling San Jose Earthquakes on their return to MLS action last week.

    Coach Pablo Mastroeni believes his side tried to force the issue too much in that match, saying: "There are two sides of the coin, we looked like a side that hadn't played for a few weeks, and what that does to the psyche is it doesn't allow us to reset.

    "That was the story. We weren't sharp with the ball and we tried to force it. You have to build confidence in your attack."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Real Salt Lake – Cristian Arango 

    Arango (17 goals) and the since-departed Andres Gomez (13 goals) are the first pair of Real Salt Lake team-mates to combine for 30 goals in a single regular season in club history.

    With Gomez now in France with Rennes, it is now up to Arango to fire RSL to the postseason.

    New England Revolution – Emmanuel Boateng

    Six of Boateng's 19 career MLS goals (including playoffs) have been scored against Real Salt Lake. The only other opponent he’s scored against more than once is FC Cincinnati (also three goals).

    MATCH PREDICTION – REAL SALT LAKE WIN

    This will be the first meeting between New England and Real Salt Lake in Utah since October 2018. RSL have not lost any of their last eight home matches against New England (six wins, two draws) dating back to 2008.

    That may not change this weekend. RSL have only lost one of their last 24 home matches against Eastern Conference opponents (14 wins, nine draws), including going unbeaten through their last six (four wins, two draws).

    New England have lost two of their last three MLS road games, with their last two ending in a 5-1 defeat (to the Philadelphia Union) and a 5-0 victory (at Montreal).

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Real Salt Lake – 51.4%

    New England Revolution – 23.9%

    Draw – 24.7%

  • Fonseca confident Milan will bounce back against Lazio Fonseca confident Milan will bounce back against Lazio

    Paulo Fonseca says Milan have been working hard in training after a poor start to the Serie A season and will be prepared to bounce back when they face Lazio.

    The newly appointed head coach is already under pressure after a lacklustre start to the campaign, with a 2-2 draw against Torino on matchday one being followed by a disappointing 2-1 defeat to newly promoted Parma.

    "We are aware that we haven’t started well. But we are all united and we want to find solutions. That’s what we’ve been doing this week," Fonseca told reporters.

    "We are united so it’s easier to work. It was a good week and I think we understood where we really need to improve. I expect a different Milan tomorrow."

    The Portuguese coach denied that some players were having trouble adapting to his tactical vision, with the Rossoneri's defensive efforts attracting particular criticism so far this season.

    "I am as confident as I was during my unveiling press conference," he added.

    "I am convinced these two games won’t diminish our ambition to become the team we aim to be."

    Milan also discovered their opponents for the Champions League's new league phase this week and are set to face Bayer Leverkusen, Real Madrid and Liverpool after a daunting draw.

    Fonseca, though, is pleased to have the chance to face top opponents, saying: "It was a balanced draw. All games will be competitive.

    "It’s true we have Madrid, Liverpool and Bayer Leverkusen, who are top sides, but there are other strong teams as well. It seems like a balanced draw and format.

    "I really like the format because there are more games among top sides but it’s also an opportunity to bring these top sides to countries that are not traditionally strong in football." 

  • Do better: Gibbons urges T&T authorities to address venue issues to enhance SSFL product Do better: Gibbons urges T&T authorities to address venue issues to enhance SSFL product

    With broadcast being a vital part of any competition as it brings fans closer to the action, Kerry Gibbons, head of creative production at SportsMax, called out the powers that be to address the lack of available venues for the Secondary Schools' Football League (SSFL) season.

    Gibbons voiced his concern as he explained that the issue is one that has hindered SportsMax’s broadcast schedules and logistics for the past season.

    As such, with the upcoming season scheduled to get underway on September 7, Gibbons believes those charged with the responsibility of maintaining the facilities in Trinidad and Tobago must do their part to ensure the best quality SSFL product.

    “There are also struggles with venues, which also affect our broadcast schedules and logistics. In a country rich with stadia and football facilities, those responsible must do better,” Gibbons said during the event’s launch at the BRIX hotel on Wednesday.

    SportsMax has been the official sponsor and broadcaster for the SSFL since 2016. The broadcast company again underscored its tagline as the ‘Home of Champions’, with a stellar production of the recently-concluded Paris 2024 Olympic Games in the Caribbean.

    “The same equipment used to produce Olympics and international football games, that's the equipment used to produce the SSFL." SportsMax broadcaster Hans Des Vignes declared.

    Earlier this month, president of the SSFL, Merere Gonzales, also pointed out that there are obstacles hindering the partnership with SportsMax.

    Though pleased that SportsMax would like to broadcast more doubleheaders, which would be more exposure for the tournament and players, Gonzales said available venues remain their Achilles heel.

    “What we have working against us is the availability of the venues, so we can have games not too early in the afternoon, because we would like the spectators and support groups that come after school to attend. If we are having a game at 2:00 pm, it's negating even students from coming and supporting,” Gonzales told T&T Newsday, adding that starting games any later would also pose a problem due to the unavailability of light in some venues.

    One such venue without light is the Larry Gomes Stadium in Arima, while the Ato Boldon Stadium in Couva has broken and discoloured seats as well as rusting beams.

    Meanwhile, the Hasely Crawford Stadium was closed in July for renovations.

    Still, Gibbons expressed SportsMax’s delight at supporting the SSFL in exposing future stars. He also urged other corporate entities to "come off the sidelines and walk onto the pitch."

© 2024 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.