EPL

The Numbers Game: Slot's Reds face Old Trafford test

By Sports Desk August 30, 2024

Two of the Premier League's biggest rivals meet at Old Trafford on Sunday, though it is fair to say there has been a gulf in class between these sides, at least over the course of a season, in recent campaigns.

This is, of course, Arne Slot's first game in charge of Liverpool against United. 

None of the Reds' last nine managers have won their first league meeting with the Red Devils, since Bob Paisley beat them 3-1 in November 1975. 

Meanwhile, George Kay is the only Liverpool manager to win his first away league game against United, winning 5-2 at Old Trafford in November 1936.

Will Slot be able to buck that trend on Sunday, putting out a statement regarding Liverpool's title aspirations in the process?

Ahead of the latest meeting between England's two most successful clubs, we look at all the best Opta facts surrounding the game.

What's expected?

It will surprise few to hear the Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool favourites for this one, with the Reds given a 48.4% chance of victory.

United, meanwhile, only came out on top in 28.2% of the simulations the model ran. The match was drawn in 23.4% of scenarios.

Liverpool have lost just one of their last six Premier League away games against United (two wins, three draws), while only Manchester City (nine) have won away at Old Trafford more often than the Reds (seven) in the competition's history. Is it any surprise they are favourites?

United have won just one of their last 12 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (five draws, six losses), beating them 2-1 at Old Trafford in their third game of the 2022-23 campaign.

However, United boss Erik ten Hag has got previous against Slot, having faced him four times in the Eredivisie. Slot's AZ beat Ten Hag's Ajax twice in 2019-20 before Ten Hag twice beat Slot's Feyenoord side in 2021-22. 

This will be the first Premier League game between two Dutch coaches since February 2016, when Guus Hiddink's Chelsea won 2-1 at Ronald Koeman's Southampton.

Ten Hag to unleash young guns?

Last season's FA Cup triumph, in all likelihood, preserved Ten Hag's status as United boss, and the high point in that run undoubtedly came against Liverpool in the last eight.

Going 2-1 down in normal time and 3-2 behind in the extra period, United twice found themselves on the brink of elimination, only to stage a miraculous comeback and steal a 4-3 win.

Amad Diallo was the hero on that occasion, scoring a dramatic 121st-minute winner before being sent off for removing his shirt in the wild celebrations that followed.

Diallo scored just his second Premier League goal in United's 2-1 defeat at Brighton and Hove Albion last time out, and with the Red Devils likely to play on the break against a confident Liverpool outfit, he could do more damage on Sunday.

The 22-year-old has registered 36 carries through his three appearances in the Community Shield and the Premier League in 2024-25, ranking fourth in the United squad behind centre-backs Lisandro Martinez (52) and Harry Maguire (41) and midfielder Kobbie Mainoo (37).

 

Many United fans have called for Diallo and Alejandro Garnacho to start on either flank, and an injury to Mason Mount could allow for that possibility this weekend, potentially with Marcus Rashford playing a central role.

Garnacho has two goal involvements (one goal, one assist) in all competitions this term, scoring in the Community Shield and assisting Joshua Zirkzee's winner against Fulham on matchday one in the Premier League. That is more than any other United player, despite the Argentine only playing 85 minutes overall. 

With Liverpool likely to leave space down the flanks, United's best route to victory could come via their young wide men.

Arne slots right in

It's been a case of so far, so good for Slot at Anfield. Liverpool have won their first two matches under their new boss, who has big shoes to fill following Jurgen Klopp's departure. 

Both of those victories have been by 2-0 scorelines, versus Ipswich Town and Brentford. Only twice before have they won each of their first three in a campaign without conceding, doing so in 2013-14 and 2018-19 – they beat United 1-0 on September 1 in their third game in 2013-14, so the omens are good.

Slot will be just as pleased with the Reds' performances, though, as he will be with their results. 

 

No team has had more shots than Liverpool in the Premier League this season (37), while the Reds also have the highest expected goals total (5.3) and the lowest expected goals against total (1.0) thus far.

Liverpool's pre-season was overshadowed by suggestions some of Klopp's most seasoned campaigners – most prominently Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk – could follow him through the exit door. However, both have made the transition to Slot's more possession-based style look serene.

Salah has already netted twice for Liverpool this season, and he is the highest-scoring visiting player to Old Trafford in Premier League history, with six goals. The Egyptian has netted in each of his last six away games against United in all competitions (nine goals in total).

Van Dijk, meanwhile, is set to make his 200th Premier League appearance for Liverpool, having been on the winning side in 139 of 199 outings to date, already the most wins any player has picked up in his first 200 for the club in the competition.

It will be intriguing to see how daring Slot's approach is, with Liverpool ranking fourth in the Premier League for possession share (62.2%), successful passes (1,172) and passes completed in the opposition half (537) through the first two matchdays.

A victory at Old Trafford, especially if achieved in a convincing manner, could provide lift-off for the Dutchman's reign.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Manchester United – Marcus Rashford

Rashford might well be United's best hope, particularly if they are forced to soak up pressure and hit Liverpool on the break. 

He has only scored more goals against Leicester City (eight) in all competitions than he has against Liverpool (seven). 

All seven of these strikes have come in his 10 appearances against them at Old Trafford, including an extra-time strike in last season's memorable 4-3 FA Cup victory.

Liverpool – Dominik Szoboszlai 

Szoboszlai has been involved in more attacking sequences (20 – four shots, five chances created and 11 build-up involvements) than any other player in the Premier League this season. 

Five other Liverpool players rank in the top 10 by that metric – Luis Diaz (19), Trent Alexander-Arnold (16), Salah and Andy Robertson (both 15).

Given United's tendency to give up space in midfield, the dynamic Hungarian could be the driving force for Liverpool.

 

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    Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo expressed his pride in seeing compatriot Ryan Gravenberch show off his qualities ‘to the whole world’ after a fine start to the Premier League season.

    Though the Netherlands pair did not become teammates at Liverpool until late summer of 2023, Gakpo knew well Gravenberch’s talents from their respective Eredivisie spells with PSV Eindhoven and Ajax.

    Now in his second season at Anfield, Gravenberch has drawn widespread plaudits for his form in a new deeper-lying midfield role under new head coach Arne Slot, having largely been used as a substitute under Jurgen Klopp.

    Gravenberch is the only midfielder in Europe's big-five leagues to both make 30+ tackles (30) and 30+ interceptions (33) in all competitions this season, and Gakpo insisted that his Netherlands team-mate can continue to go from strength to strength, starting against Southampton this Sunday.

    “We [the Dutchmen at Liverpool] knew Ryan already from the Eredivisie when he played at Ajax, and I think everybody knew already that he is this good,” Gakpo recently told Men in Blazers.

    “After that, he made a move to Bayern Munich, and maybe he didn’t play that much over there, but still everybody in Holland knew how good he could be when he was playing.

    “And I think maybe the manager [Slot] also knew this. At the beginning of the season, he put him in a slightly different position, but he gave him the confidence to play there.

    “Ryan showed his quality in that position, grabbed his chance as well and turned out to be a good match. He is playing outstandingly for us this season.

    “I’m very happy that we can see Ryan, as we Dutchmen already knew, but now he can show it to the whole world. I’m very proud of him.”

    Southampton, meanwhile, welcome the Reds to St. Mary’s on the back of a 2-0 defeat to Wolves ahead of the international break, leaving them bottom of the table after 11 games of the season.

    The Saints are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season (seven), while only Crystal Palace (5.1%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Russell Martin’s side (6.2%). Just 30.1% of Southampton’s shots have been on target this term (34/113), a league-low ratio.

    However, the Southampton head coach is relishing the opportunity of facing Liverpool, with his players performing well against the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City already this term.

    "I'm really excited about Sunday. We're playing the best team in the country at the moment, on their current form and what they have been doing with their manager, built on an incredible foundation from the previous manager, so I'm really looking forward to it,” Martin said.

    "I think we showed the guys the Premier League table last season and how much it changed by the end and by the end of December. But it's honestly such an exciting month.

    "People talk about the difficulty of the game and every competition we face in the next four or five games, but it's what we all worked so hard for. We should be excited about the challenge.  

    “I think teams have shown in the last few weeks that you can pick up big results against big teams, good opposition, and we are going to have to. Our level of performance against teams at the top end of the table has been good on the whole."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Southampton – Mateus Fernandes

    Fernandes has become a mainstay in the Southampton team, starting the last eight Premier League games in a row, and has been one of Martin’s standout performers in a lacklustre start to the campaign.

    In the Saints’ 2-0 defeat to Wolves last time out, the Portuguese contributed a team-high expected goals (xG) tally of 0.22 from his three shots, while only Yukinari Sugawara (10) and Flynn Downes (12) have created more chances in the top-flight than Fernandes (eight) this season.

    Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

    Salah has both scored and assisted in the same match 35 times in the Premier League (including four already this term), just one shy of Wayne Rooney’s record of 36 games with both a goal and an assist in the competition. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 11 goals (seven goals, four assists) in 11 Premier League appearances against Southampton.

    He has also been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21 – eight goals, six assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. Indeed, only Matt Le Tissier for Southampton in 1993-94 (69% - 34/49) has scored or assisted a higher proportion of a side’s goals in a single season in the competition.

    MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN

    Liverpool have won nine of their 11 Premier League games under new head coach Slot (D1 L1). A win over Southampton will see the Dutchman become the joint-fastest manager to reach 10 wins from the start of a Premier League career (12 games), alongside Guus Hiddink in May 2009 and Carlo Ancelotti in November 2009 (both with Chelsea).

    The Reds’ last Premier League game against the Saints was a 4-4 away draw in May 2023 – they conceded as many goals in that game as they had in their previous six visits to St Mary’s combined.

    Southampton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L10), a 1-0 home victory in January 2021.

    This will also be the first Premier League match between the side starting the day bottom of the table and the side starting the day top since April 2023, and Southampton’s 3-3 draw away to Arsenal. The league leaders are unbeaten in 14 such matches (W12 D2) since Wolves won 2-1 against Manchester United in February 2011.

    However, Southampton have only lost one of their last eight Premier League home games against sides starting the day at the summit (W2 D5) and are unbeaten in their last four (W2 D2 – including a 1-0 win over Liverpool in January 2021) since a 0-1 defeat to Man City in May 2018.

    But Martin’s side have lost nine of their 11 Premier League games this season (W1 D1). Only seven sides in English top-flight history have reached 10 defeats in 12 or fewer matches from the start of a campaign, with all seven going on to be relegated.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Southampton – 9.7%

    Draw – 12.6%

    Liverpool – 77.7%

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    Slegers introduced Beth Mead, Stina Blackstenius and Hurtig late on, with the latter somehow putting Kim Little's cross over the bar from five yards out. 

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    Meanwhile, in Group D, Barcelona edged closer to the quarter-finals of the competition with a convincing 4-1 victory over St. Polten at the Generali Arena. 

    The reigning champions are still three points behind Manchester City following their 2-1 win over Hammarby, and know a win against the Swedes next month will see them progress.

    Kika Nazareth opened the scoring in the 20th minute after capitalising on a mistake by Kamila Dubcova, notching her second nine minutes later from close range. 

    Barca found themselves three goals up at the break when Vicky Lopez netted her first goal in the competition to put the result beyond doubt. 

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    Valentina Madl took some of the shine off an otherwise impressive display from the visitors, who have now taken their tally to 20 goals from their four matches in the competition. 

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    The 53-year-old was coming to the end of his City deal, which was due to expire at the end of the current campaign, but he has opted to remain at the Etihad Stadium.

    The deal itself will take Guardiola's tenure at the club to over a decade, making him City's longest-serving manager since Les McDowall in 1963.

    There had been suggestions that he may leave at the end of the season following the announcement that director of football Txiki Begiristain was on his way out.

    Guardiola was strongly linked with the England job after Gareth Southgate resigned in the wake of their Euro 2024 final defeat, but the Football Association appointed Thomas Tuchel last month.

    “Manchester City means so much to me," Guardiola said. “This is my ninth season here; we have experienced so many amazing times together. I have a really special feeling for this football club.  

    “That is why I am so happy to be staying for another two more seasons.

    “Thank you to everyone for continuing to trust and support me – The Owner, The Chairman Khaldoon, Ferran, Txiki, the players and, of course, the fans… everyone connected to Manchester City. It has always been an honour, a pleasure and a privilege to be here.  

    “I have said this many times before, but I have everything a manager could ever wish for, and I appreciate that so much.  

    “Hopefully, now we can add more trophies to the ones we have already won. That will be my focus.”

     

    Having been appointed in 2016, Guardiola is by some distance Manchester City's most successful manager of all time, having won 18 major trophies during his time at the club.

    That list includes their first-ever Champions League triumph in 2023 and six Premier League titles, including an unprecedented four on the spin.

    He also boasts a 72.04% win percentage across all competitions, which is unsurprisingly the highest of any full-time City manager in history.

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