Portugal and France confirmed their places in the quarter-finals of Euro 2024, but both the pre-tournament favourites were far from convincing in doing so.
Roberto Martinez had Diogo Costa to thank for his penalty heroics against Slovenia as the Porto goalkeeper spared Cristiano Ronaldo's blushes in Frankfurt.
Ronaldo saw his spot-kick saved by Jan Oblak in extra time, reducing the five-time Ballon d'Or winner to tears at the interval before stepping up to score in the shootout.
Earlier that day, France were aided by the knee of Jan Vertonghen as they squeezed past Belgium in Dusseldorf, with their struggles in front of goal continuing.
This will be the first meeting between the two sides since Euro 2020, in which three of the four goals were scored from the penalty spot in a 2-2 draw at the Puskas Arena. It is also, of course, a repeat of the Euro 2016 final, which Portugal won 1-0 in Paris.
Many predict another enthralling encounter against two European powerhouses, but based on current form, we might be better not expecting a classic.
Here, we use Opta data to preview Friday's clash.
What's expected?
France are predicted to emerge victorious in Hamburg, with the Opta supercomputer handing them a 40.1% chance of winning at the Volksparkstadion.
Portugal triumphed in 30.2% of the data-led simulations, with a draw forecast at 29.8%, meaning extra time and penalties are a real possibility.
This will be the fifth meeting between Portugal and France at the European Championships, with the Selecao unbeaten in the last two.
France won the first two meetings, going on to lift the trophy both times (3-2 in 1984, 2-1 in 2000), and Les Bleus know a win could send them on their way to silverware once again.
But while both sides boast an array of attacking talent, they have misfired in Germany, and every little advantage will likely be crucial in a tight contest.
Portugal have now failed to score in their last two matches. They have never failed to score in three consecutive games at a single major tournament before.
Les Bleus have had a similar problem. Their three goals at Euro 2024 so far have come from two own goals and a penalty from Kylian Mbappe.
Not since a run of five internationals between March and September 2013 have France seen their players fail to score from open play in as many matches.
However, their defence remained resolute in their time of need. France have an expected goals against (xGA) tally of just 2.63 at Euro 2024 – the lowest of any side in the quarter-final, and second lowest at the tournament overall after already-eliminated Serbia (2.57).
Didier Deschamps' team have an impressive record over Friday's opponents, having lost only one of their last 14 games against Portugal (W11 D2), although that lone defeat came in the final of Euro 2016.
But Martinez's side will fancy their chances of claiming a second European Championship crown should they triumph here.
The previous four teams to eliminate Les Bleus at the quarter-final stage of a major tournament have gone on to win the trophy (Italy in the 1938 World Cup, Greece at Euro 2004, Spain at Euro 2012 and Germany at the 2014 World Cup).
Stick or twist with Ronaldo?
It's a question that has emerged not for the first time at Euro 2024, but Martinez will face his toughest decision yet on Portugal's talisman ahead of the fixture against France.
Ronaldo endured an evening to forget against Slovenia, but assumed responsibility for the Selecao's first spot-kick in the penalty shootout, and was sure not to make the same mistake twice.
During that game in Frankfurt, Ronaldo had the most shots (eight), shots on target (four), and touches in the opposition box (seven), of any player. A clinical edge is lacking.
Indeed, Portugal's captain has mustered 20 shots at Euro 2024, the most of any player, but is yet to find the back of the net.
Ronaldo has also attempted 34 direct free-kick shots for Portugal at the Euros, over twice as many as any other player on record (since 1980 – Zinedine Zidane 15), yet he is still to score one.
While it may be difficult to drop a player who is the all-time leading goalscorer in international football, Martinez could see this as an opportunity to freshen up his forward line.
Having recorded an xG total of 1.97 against Slovenia, failing to take those opportunities against a superior opposition will surely have devastating consequences.
Slim pickings for Deschamps
Deschamps tried to reignite Les Bleus' attacking spark with a three-man strike force against Belgium, but the pickings were slim.
A trio of Mbappe, Marcus Thuram and Antoine Griezmann were preferred, with Randal Kolo Muani introduced late on, but it proved to be another blunt display.
France had 19 shots against the Belgians, but just two were on target, and ultimately it was a touch of fortune that saw them through.
Between Mbappe (five), Thuram (four) and Griezmann (two), they managed just one shot on target, despite having 18 touches between them in Belgium's box.
Defence, ironically, given the attacking talent at their disposal, has been France’s strong point. However, their array of attacking options will have to step up sooner rather than later.
France have kept a clean sheet in three of their four games, the most of any side at the tournament, yet they are not being helped by the players in front of them.
Deschamps, however, has the opportunity to freshen up his forward line. The France coach faces a decision similar to Martinez, as to which of his players he can trust on the biggest of stages.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Portugal - Joao Paulinha
With Portugal's misfiring front line at the centre of attention against Slovenia, it overshadowed the impressive display of Joao Paulinha at the heart of midfield.
Paulinha, who is reportedly set to join Bayern Munich, made nine tackles in this game. The last player to make more in a European Championship match was Anatoliy Tymoshchuk for Ukraine v France in 2012 (12).
The 28-year-old's ability to break up play proved extremely effective against Slovenia, winning the most duels (17), most aerial duels (10), and winning possession more than any other Portugal player on the pitch (10).
France - William Saliba
William Saliba has carried his impressive form with Arsenal into his second major international tournament, and his defensive presence will be important given France's struggles in attack.
The defender has completed 96.6% of his passes so far at Euro 2024 (256/265), the best passing accuracy recorded (min. 100 passes) by a France player at a major tournament (since 1966 for the World Cup, and 1980 for the Euros).
Venezuela 1-1 Canada (aet, 3-4 pens): Kone penalty heroics earn Marsch landmark win in Copa classic
Ismael Kone sent Canada to their first Copa America semi-final as they overcame Venezuela 4-3 in a penalty shootout to edge a classic encounter.
Jacob Shaffelburg opened the scoring for Canada, only for Salomon Rondon to net a stunning long-range equaliser to take the quarter-final the distance.
With 32 shots shared between the two sides, penalties would decide who would face Argentina at the MetLife Stadium next week.
The decisive miss came from Wilker Angel, with Kone's stuttering run up allowing him to coolly slot the ball beyond Rafael Romo to secure the victory.
Despite the nerves of playing in their first-ever knockout fixture at the Copa America, it was Canada who would strike the decisive blow early on in Texas.
Having seen appeals for a penalty waved away moments earlier, Shaffelburg dusted himself down to open the scoring, squeezing home Jonathan David's cross at the near post in the 13th minute.
Jesse Marsch's side had opportunities to double their advantage, as Shaffelburg saw his effort saved while David fluffed his lines with only Romo to beat as a pulsating first half came to a close.
Canada's dominance continued after the break but Cyle Larin was unable to hit the target, and their wastefulness in front of goal was punished spectacularly.
A long ball up front saw Rondon win a tussle with Moise Bombito, taking aim from just inside the Canada half to lob Maxime Crepeau for a goal of the tournament contender.
David continued to threaten for Canada, chipping the ball in behind for Tani Oluwaseyi who could only find the roof of the net in the final chance of normal time.
Both sides would miss two spot-kicks as the encounter reached sudden death, but Angel saw his effort saved by Crepeau, handing the responsibility over to Kone, who clinched a landmark victory for Marsch's side.
Venezuela's young guns can be proud of their efforts
Fernando Batista can count his team unlucky following their gut-wrenching exit from the tournament, but his young squad can take pride in their performances at the tournament.
Venezuela battled an onslaught of Canada pressure, but fought back with their own attacking talents, with Rondon's strike their fourth consecutive goal at the Copa America, their longest run of games with a goal in the competition since a run of five games in June 2015.
However, hopes of reaching a first semi-final since 2011 were dashed.
Nevertheless, Venezuela can leave the tournament with their heads held high, having equalled their highest goal tally (seven) in a single edition of the tournament.
Canada through, but must improve in front of goal
Marsch said he wanted to build something special with Canada, and his side's run in the Copa America has been nothing short of sensational.
Canada started brightly through Shaffelburg's early strike, with all three of his international strikes coming in knockout matches. However, it should have been more.
From their 16 shots on goal, only seven were on target, with 12 of their efforts coming inside the box. Marsch's side underperformed their expected goals (xG) by 0.84, and had four total big chances compared to Venezuela's 0.
Despite those underlying statistics, Canada will be hopeful of keeping their fairytale run in the competition alive against Argentina, who they lost to in the group stage of the competition.
Columbus Crew v Toronto FC: Herdman lays down the gauntlet for the Reds following ‘turning point’ fixture
John Herdman insists that Toronto FC’s defeat to Orlando City must be a turning point in their MLS campaign ahead of facing in-form Columbus Crew this weekend.
Toronto had taken an early lead through Derrick Etienne but were compounded to a fifth straight defeat that leaves them in eighth place in the Eastern Conference, two points behind Nashville SC.
Head coach Herdman acknowledged his side’s poor recent form, and ensured conversations would be had with his players and staff to ensure they return to winning ways sooner, rather than later.
“This has to be a turning point for the club tonight,” Herdman said. “I said that to the players after the game, ‘It has to be the turning point.’
“There's going to be some hard conversations in the next two days starting with all of us looking at ourselves in the mirror for that 20-minute period.
“What happened there? And why is it happening? Why do we fall into that trap game after game after game?”
However, they will have to do so against a Columbus side in a rich vein of form having earned a third straight triumph with their 2-0 win over Nashville last time out.
The Crew currently occupy third place in the Eastern Conference and are one of three sides chasing runaway leaders FC Cincinnati and Inter Miami.
Head coach Wilfried Nancy commended his team’s recent displays and said he intends to do everything possible to keep that feel-good feeling in the camp before welcoming Toronto to the Lower.com Field.
“I'm going to talk about the present moment because it's a fact: They are really good,” Nancy said of his side.
“They are really good. We are going to try to do everything to help them to stay like this because
for me, it's a key point. It's a key point about the way we want to play.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Columbus Crew – Cucho Hernandez
There is arguably no one better in the MLS right now than Cucho Hernandez as he kept up his impressive recent form for the Crew.
Since returning from injury, the Colombian has registered six goals and four assists in his last five matches, with his most recent coming in their 2-0 win over Nashville as he set up Christian Ramirez to open the scoring at the Lower.com Field.
Toronto FC – Federico Bernardeschi
Federico Bernardeschi continues to be an attacking force for Toronto, and he will be needed on top form if his side are to halt their current five-game winless run.
The Italian has been involved in 14 goals in his last 10 MLS matches (eight goals, six assists), including an assist against Orlando City last time out.
MATCH PREDICTION: COLUMBUS CREW WIN
Columbus are expected to emerge victorious, with Nancy’s side winning 76.7% of Opta’s data-led simulations heading into the encounter.
The Crew have an impressive home record, losing one of their last 30 home matches in all competitions dating back to May 2023 (W20 D9). In that streak, 12 of those victories have been by a margin of two or more goals.
Columbus also boast an impressive record over their opponents and are unbeaten in their last five league matches against Toronto. Before this run, Columbus had won just two of their previous 14 meetings with Toronto dating back to 2016.
Toronto, however, will be out to cause an upset. Their current five-game losing run is the seventh losing streak of five or more matches since the start of the 2021 season.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Columbus Crew – 76.7%
Draw – 13.9%
Toronto FC – 9.4%
Martinez commends Portugal display despite 'cruel' penalty shootout defeat to France
Roberto Martinez insisted that Portugal must be proud of their players, describing their penalty shootout defeat to France as "cruel" in the quarter-finals of Euro 2024.
Having seen a fourth meeting between the two sides at the European Championships go the full distance, spot-kicks would decide who would face Spain in Munich next Tuesday.
Joao Felix saw his effort bounce back off the post, allowing Theo Hernandez to send Les Bleus through to their fourth semi-final in the last five major tournaments.
Portugal squandered several golden opportunities on the night, with Cristiano Ronaldo and Nuno Mendes going closest for the Selecao.
Martinez praised his side's display, believing his side were the better side on the night.
"We have to be proud of our players because they fought and performed very well," Martinez said.
"Football can be cruel. We wanted to give joy to the Portuguese people and the message is that the team gave everything and showed Portugal's values.
"It was a good game and France is a good team. We had more ball, we created opportunities, but we lacked precision and we needed to score a goal.
"We had a lot of opportunities, but it was a game of high technical and tactical level."
Following the full-time whistle in Hamburg, veteran defender Pepe was reduced to tears and consoled by former Real Madrid team-mate Ronaldo.
Pepe, who has made 140 appearances for his country, became the oldest player to play at the tournament and is likely to have played his final match for Portugal.
"Football is cruel and sadness is part of it," Pepe said.
"We were aiming to win for our country and bring joy to our people. Five days ago we won on penalties and now we lost on penalties. It's cruel.
"The most important thing is to congratulate my colleagues for their commitment to the game."
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