Niclas Fullkrug proved the last-gasp hero as Germany avoided a shock upset to top Group A at Euro 2024 after snatching a 1-1 draw with Switzerland on Sunday.
Dan Ndoye's first international goal seemed set to seal a famous win for Switzerland and ensure them top spot in Group A, but Germany's towering substitute stepped up in the dying seconds in Frankfurt.
Ruben Vargas thought he had doubled Switzerland's advantage late on, only to be denied by the offside flag, and that decision proved pivotal when Fullkrug headed in his 92nd-minute leveller.
That late intervention ensured Germany finished top of the group and will face second place in Group D in the last 16, while Switzerland's top-two finish sets up a meeting with the runners-up of Group B.
The host nation started brightly once again and thought they had taken another early lead when Florian Wirtz teed up Robert Andrich, who squeezed his shot past Yann Sommer into the near post.
However, the Bayer Leverkusen midfielder was denied his first international goal after a VAR check as Jamal Musiala was deemed to have fouled Michel Aebischer in the box during the build-up.
Nagelsmann's team instead found themselves behind for the first time in the tournament just before the half-hour mark after Ndoye crashed Remo Freuler's whipped cross past the helpless Manuel Neuer.
Just moments later, Ndoye offered Germany another scare, racing past Antonio Rudiger before fizzing an angled shot just wide of the far post.
Nagelsmann's half-time message was clear as Musiala looked to make it three goals in three games with a powerful hit from the edge of the box, but Sommer was equal to the attempt.
Toni Kroos drilled a low shot wide under pressure before Kai Havertz glanced a header over the bar as Germany failed to find their clinical edge.
Joshua Kimmich had the best chance to equalise from close range in the 71st minute, but an incredible last-ditch block by Manuel Akanji denied him.
Vargas was left one-on-one with Neuer shortly after and slotted into the far corner, but the assistant referee was quick to flag for offside as Switzerland celebrations were short-lived.
Havertz's looping header bounced off the crossbar as Germany sought a response, which arrived when Fullkrug made his impact off the bench, thumping a header home from David Raum's left-sided delivery.
Neuer's record-breaking day salvaged by Fullkrug
Neuer had already made history in their opening game at Euro 2024 as he became Germany's outright top appearance maker at major tournaments, surpassing Philipp Lahm.
Now, on his 37th start for his country, only Cristiano Ronaldo (45) has played more games across the Euros and World Cup than him, while he has also made the most appearances among goalkeepers in the history of the competition (18, moving ahead of Gianluigi Buffon).
The 38-year-old could not mark a special day with a win, though, as Germany's long wait for a comeback victory when trailing at half-time stretched to 11 matches in the competition (D2 L9).
Their last such win came at Euro 1976 against Yugoslavia (2-0 down at half-time, won 4-2), but Neuer and Co. can at least celebrate top spot after late drama in Frankfurt.
Ndoye steps into the spotlight
Xherdan Shaqiri grabbed the headlines in Switzerland's 1-1 draw with Scotland last time out after scoring in a sixth consecutive major tournament, but with him on the bench on Sunday, the Red Crosses needed others to step up.
In his 14th start for the national side, Ndoye netted for the first time, becoming Switzerland's second-youngest goalscorer in the history of the Euros at 23 years and 242 days, after Johan Vonlanthen against France in 2004 (18y 141d).
Despite going off in the 65th minute, Ndoye had the most shots for Switzerland (two of their three), creating an expected goals tally of 0.52 as he proved their biggest threat.
Though Switzerland will rue their late concession, they are now unbeaten in their last four meetings with Germany – a promising sign as the last-16 awaits.
Euro 2024: The group stage's lucky winners and unlucky losers
The Euro 2024 group stage is done and dusted.
Croatia were the biggest name to fail to make the knockouts, as they and Hungary were the two third-placed sides to miss out on the last 16.
Previous finalists Italy and England progressed along with the likes of hosts Germany, France, Spain and Portugal, though some nations were more fortunate to advance than others.
Here, we use Opta data to assess the unlucky losers and the lucky winners from the Euro 2024 group stage, both in terms of individual matches and the first phase of the tournament as a whole.
UNLUCKY LOSERS
Croatia
Let's start with the tournament's biggest expected goals (xG) underperformers so far... and the big-name casualty of the group stage.
Luka Modric became the oldest player to score at the Euros in the tournament's history on matchday three, and that goal against Italy seemed to be sending Croatia through from Group B, only for Mattia Zaccagni to rescue the Azzurri late on.
That 1-1 draw condemned Croatia to third place. But they were highly unfortunate not to take more than two points.
They lost 3-0 to a rampant Spain on matchday one, despite accumulating 2.38 xG to La Roja's 2.01. They then amassed 2.69 xG against Albania, only to concede late on in a 2-2 draw.
Indeed, Croatia finished with an accumulative xG total of 6.55, which leads the tournament, yet they only managed three goals.
Defensively, they can consider themselves unfortunate too. Croatia conceded six goals from an xG against (xGA) of 4.37, though their 15 shots on target faced does rank joint-fifth worst. Ultimately, Zlatko Dalic's team allowed too many efforts on goal, and they paid the price for profligate finishing at the other end.
Czechia
Czechia finished bottom of Group F, with Georgia the surprise package as they stunned Portugal to claim third place.
Despite not winning a match, Czechia recorded 5.11 xG in total, the sixth-highest figure in the tournament.
Interestingly, the four Group F teams (Portugal, Turkiye, Georgia and Czechia) all rank in the top nine for xG so far.
Czechia converted that xG into just three goals, though, with Patrik Schick - who shared the Golden Boot with Cristiano Ronaldo at Euro 2020 - failing to spark like he did three years ago.
But, we can't pin Czechia's failure on their finishing. Their xG on target (xGoT) of 6.01 shows they were forcing opposition goalkeepers into action, with Ivan Hasek's team leading the way for shots on target (20, equal with Germany). Czechia's 6.82% shot conversion rate was the lowest in Group F, though.
Ukraine
For the first time in the history of the Euros, four teams in one pool all finished level - that was in Group E, with Romania, Belgium, Slovakia and Ukraine all collecting four points.
Ukraine were the unfortunate team to miss out, as they became the first side in Euros history to finish bottom of the group while earning four points. Ouch.
What do the metrics say? Well, they should probably have scored a goal more than the two they managed, having accumulated 3.07 xG. Their shot conversion rate of 5.13% ranks 19th out of 24, though.
At the other end of the pitch, even though they only had a total xGA of 2.95 across the three games, they were punished by some quality finishing from Romania in an opening 3-0 defeat, which ultimately proved decisive in their exit.
LUCKY WINNERS
Italy
It's a good job for the holders that Zaccagni curled in late on against Croatia. If not, and if results in other groups had gone as they have done, then the Azzurri would not have made it through as one of the best third-placed teams.
As it was, they did get that crucial goal against Croatia, despite mustering just 0.9 xG, so they made it through in second and will now face Switzerland in the last 16.
With Germany, Spain, France and Portugal on the other side of the bracket, could a path be opening up for Luciano Spalletti's team to defend their title, against the odds?
Italy generated just 2.62 xG across their three games, the sixth-lowest in the competition, while they have only had nine shots on target, more than only Scotland (three), Serbia (six) and Slovenia (seven).
They are on the kinder half of the draw, but it's fair to say they are fortunate to be there.
Georgia
It is fantastic to see tournament debutants Georgia make it into the knockouts, and based on their performance against Portugal, in a 2-0 win, it is hard to say they didn't deserve it.
Georges Mikautadze is the first player to score or assist in each of his first three games at the European Championship since Gareth Bale for Wales in 2016, and as it stands, he is also the unlikely leader in the Golden Boot race.
That being said, the metrics do not reflect particularly well on Willy Sagnol's team, who have been defensively wide open, facing a tournament-high 71 shots, with 25 of those (another competition high) hitting the target. In fact, they have given up over 3.0 xG in two of their three matches so far.
They have been hugely reliant on goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili, who has prevented the most goals of any shot-stopper in the tournament based on Opta's xGoT model (four goals conceded from 7.6 xGoT).
Mamardashvili is likely to have to be on top form again if Georgia are to shock Spain on Sunday.
Going the other way, Georgia have only had 26 shots (only Scotland, with 17, managed fewer), but their shot conversion rate is an impressive 15.38%, the third-highest in the tournament.
You have to have luck on your side to win a tournament, but is this going to be sustainable in the knockouts?
England
Much has been made of England's poor performances in Germany, considering the attacking talent Gareth Southgate has at his disposal.
And the metrics do support those moans and groans - the Three Lions' 2.19 xG is the third-lowest in the competition.
However, they also have the stingiest defence, having kept two clean sheets and given up just 1.15 xG.
England, though, have certainly been fortunate that Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia hardly offered the sternest of opponents in Group C. They have landed in the kinder half of the draw, but it's time for the pre-tournament favourites to click into gear.
Mbappe, Musiala… Mikautadze... Ronaldo? The Golden Boot contenders at Euro 2024
The Euro 2024 group stage is behind us, having provided fans across the continent with their fair share of thrills and spills.
From the emergence of Austria and Georgia as surprise packages to the below-par performances of England, France and the Netherlands, there has been plenty of intrigue.
Now 16 teams remain and the knockout bracket is locked in, and most of the continent's leading marksmen – including Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane and Cristiano Ronaldo – will still be dreaming of lifting the trophy on July 14.
Adding the Golden Boot alongside team success would make it a dream tournament, but the established continental stars face competition for that honour from a few breakout stars.
With the likes of Georges Mikautadze, Jamal Musiala and Niclas Fullkrug staking their own claims, who will finish top of the scoring charts?
We delve into the Opta data to assess the runners and riders, as well as those bigger names who have struggled so far.
THE FAVOURITES
Kylian Mbappe (one goal)
Mbappe endured a dreadful time at the delayed Euro 2020 tournament three years ago, and things have not gone much better this time around.
At Euro 2020, he failed to score and missed the decisive penalty as France exited in the last 16 versus Switzerland.
Only Alvaro Morata (six), Gerard Moreno and Kane (five each) missed more big chances (as defined by Opta) than Mbappe (four). His 14 total shots amounted to 1.7 expected goals (xG), with only Moreno (-2.25) and Dani Olmo (-1.86) underperforming their xG figures by a greater margin.
This year, a nasty collision with Austria defender Kevin Danso left him with a broken nose and forced him to miss France's second Group D match against the Netherlands, but he returned – donning a protective mask – to score from the penalty spot in their 1-1 draw with Poland.
That was his 13th goal for France at major tournaments (one at the Euros, 12 at World Cups), with only Michel Platini (14) netting more. With many backing France to go far despite landing on a stacked side of the bracket, that figure is certainly within reach.
If France are to go all the way, they will have to overcome Belgium in the last 16 and could face Portugal in the last eight and one of Germany or Spain in the semi-finals.
They are now fourth favourites to win the tournament, according to the Opta supercomputer, with some big-game performances from Mbappe required.
Harry Kane (one)
Like Mbappe, Kane has one goal to his name at the end of the group stage, having netted England's opener in their 1-1 draw with Denmark on matchday two.
Also like the France captain, Kane has endured a difficult tournament, starved of service in an England team that has been jeered by their own fans despite topping Group C.
Only Scotland (0.95) and Serbia (2.11) created a lower xG figure than the Three Lions (2.19) in the group stage as they toiled to five points, but a seemingly kind path through the knockout rounds has them installed as favourites once again.
Kane is a player who tends to grow into tournaments, and Gareth Southgate will be hoping his skipper does so. Kane has scored six goals in his last six appearances in the knockout stages of major tournaments for England (two in two at the 2022 World Cup, four in four at Euro 2020).
His seven goals in tournament knockout stages overall are also the most of any Three Lions player in history.
The mood around the England team has not exactly been buoyant thus far, but with the draw opening up, do not sleep on Kane's chances of firing them to glory.
Jamal Musiala (two)
Germany made a flying start to their home tournament with a 5-1 rout of Scotland and a 2-0 victory over Hungary, with Bayern Munich man Musiala scoring in both games.
They found things more difficult in a 1-1 draw with Switzerland on matchday three and are sure to be tested by Denmark in the last 16, but if Julian Nagelsmann's men are to prolong their encouraging run, Musiala will be key.
One of just six players with multiple goals to his name at this stage, Musiala has also completed the second-most dribbles at the tournament with nine, behind only Belgium's Jeremy Doku (13).
Of the six players to net more than once, only Slovakia's Ivan Schranz (two goals, 0.39 xG) has scored his goals from a lower xG figure than Musiala's 0.48, with both of the German's strikes being rasping finishes into the roof of the net.
Playing for the team whose total of 5.1 xG is the best at the tournament, Musiala should get plenty more chances to add to his tally.
Niclas Fullkrug (two)
Musiala is not the only home favourite in contention to top the goalscoring charts, though, with super sub Fullkrug proving the direct route can be an effective option with two goals in just 73 minutes of action off the bench.
Having found the top-right corner with a brilliant strike against Scotland, the Borussia Dortmund man spared the hosts' blushes on matchday three, as his stoppage-time leveller ensured they pipped Switzerland to top spot in Group A.
His goals have come from just three shots worth a total of 0.54 xG, and it will be interesting to see whether those figures are sustainable should he force his way into Nagelsmann's starting lineup.
A recent poll of 138,000 supporters conducted by German newspaper BILD found 90% of respondents wanted to see Fullkrug start the team's first knockout match.
Cody Gakpo (two)
The Netherlands have not exactly impressed so far, sneaking through Group D in third place following a 3-2 defeat to an inspired Austria team.
However, like England, they have landed on what appears to be the weaker side of the draw, boosting their hopes of going all the way.
The Opta supercomputer gave Ronald Koeman's Oranje a 5.1% chance of winning the trophy before a ball was kicked, and that is now up to 7% despite their struggles, due to Romania, Austria and Turkiye being the other teams in their quarter of the draw.
The fact they could reach the last four without playing a knockout game against any established heavyweights could see them put forward a Golden Boot contender in the shape of Gakpo.
The Liverpool man has two goals to his name already, also winning more duels (23) than any other player at the competition.
He could now become the sixth Dutchman to score three or more goals at a single edition of the Euros, after Marco van Basten (five in 1988), Dennis Bergkamp (three in 1992), Patrick Kluivert (five in 2000), Ruud van Nistelrooy (four in 2004) and Georginio Wijnaldum (thee at Euro 2020).
Georges Mikautadze (three)
None of the big names mentioned above are leading the way in the Golden Boot race, though, with that honour going to a surprise name.
Georgia's Georges Mikautadze, who plays his club football in France for recently relegated Metz, has three goals to his name.
His last two goals – against Czechia and Portugal – have come from the penalty spot, with his first being a clever sweeping finish against Turkiye on matchday one – his country's first goal at a major tournament as an independent nation.
Perhaps crucially, Mikautadze has also recorded an assist, meaning he has twice as many total goal involvements (four) as any other player at the tournament.
Assists are used as a tie-breaker in scenarios where two players are level in the Golden Boot race at the Euros, and it is not far-fetched to suggest he may already have done enough to claim the prize.
Spain great Fernando Torres won the 2012 award with just three goals, although five of the last seven editions of the European Championships have seen a player win the Golden Boot with five goals or more (Antoine Griezmann netted six in 2016).
If the continent's big names continue to misfire, Mikautadze could mark a breakout tournament with an individual honour.
THE OTHER CONTENDERS
With teams facing four more games if they are to reach the final, plenty of other players are not yet out of contention, even if they struggled in the group stage.
Alvaro Morata (one)
Morata made a flying start to the tournament as he slotted home Spain's opener in their impressive 3-0 demolition of Croatia on matchday one, but he has not scored since then, being rested for their final group game against Albania.
La Roja's success has been built on a solid defence, as they are just the second team to win all three of their group-stage matches to nil at the Euros, after Italy at the 2020 edition.
However, they are now expected to go far, and their skipper should get plenty of chances to add to his tally.
That being said, he has only converted one of his eight shots, so that conversion rate will certainly have to improve.
Cristiano Ronaldo (zero)
While Portugal topped Group F with a game to spare and could afford to rest players for Wednesday's 2-0 defeat to Georgia, Ronaldo has endured a frustrating time of things in front of goal.
He failed to score in the group stages of a major international tournament for the first time in his career, with this his 11th competition with the Selecao, who he has now played for on 50 occasions at major tournaments (a European record).
Still the European Championships' all-time leading scorer with 14 goals, his seven assists are also now the most on record (since 1968) at the competition. He will be keen to add to both of those tallies in the knockout rounds.
Romelu Lukaku (zero)
You could argue Lukaku has been both wasteful and unfortunate. He has failed to score from 10 shots totalling 1.67 xG at Euro 2024, with Antoine Griezmann the only player with zero goals from a higher underlying figure (1.84).
The Belgium man has also seen three goals ruled out following VAR checks, either for handball in the build-up or for offside. But for the technology's interventions, he would be level with Mikautadze at the top of the charts.
His chances of winning the Golden Boot have been made that much tougher by the draw, with France up next for the Red Devils after they finished second in Group E.
Christoph Baumgartner (one)
Ralf Rangnick's Austria have been one of the stories of the tournament, pipping France and the Netherlands to top spot in Group D to land on the more favourable side of the draw and leave fans dreaming of a run all the way to the final.
Only Germany have scored more goals (eight to six) or created a higher cumulative xG figure (5.1 to 3.84) than Rangnick's high-pressing side, and they could entertain again when they face Turkiye in the last 16.
With one goal and one assist, RB Leipzig attacker Baumgartner is the only Austrian with multiple goal involvements at Euro 2024, an instinctive finish against Poland demonstrating his coolness in front of goal.
Watch out for his team-mate Marcel Sabitzer, though, who scored a fantastic goal in Austria's 3-2 win over the Netherlands last time out.
Germany v Denmark: Fullkrug confident of Euro 2024 success
Niclas Fullkrug believes Germany have already shown they are capable of winning Euro 2024 ahead of their last-16 tie with Denmark on Saturday.
Julian Nagelsmann's side concluded their Group A campaign with a draw against Switzerland, with Borussia Dortmund forward Fullkrug striking late on to secure top spot.
Germany thumped Scotland 5-1 in the opening game of the tournament before beating Hungary 2-0 in Stuttgart.
And Fullkrug is confident the hosts have demonstrated title-winning levels.
"If you want to become European champions you have to beat the really good [teams]," Fullkrug said.
"I think we've already shown what we are capable of in this tournament."
Germany head coach Nagelsmann was able to sit back and watch the action for the remainder of the week but was in no mood for sympathy for having extra days to prepare for their knockout stage fixture compared to Denmark.
"We have two more days to prepare, maybe the opponent is not that happy about that," Nagelsmann said.
"But one of those four only has to prepare for one team, we have to prepare for four, so it's kind of fair. May the best team win on Saturday."
Preparations for Denmark begin #DFB #GermanFootball #GermanMNT #EURO2024
DFB/ Philipp Reinhard pic.twitter.com/nzMO7piEEj
— German Football (@DFB_Team_EN) June 26, 2024
Denmark have only won three of their last 15 matches at major tournaments, drawing seven and losing five.
They are winless in their last seven such games (D4 L3), drawing all three of their games in Group C.
Kasper Hjulmand has a plan for how Denmark can derail the host's dreams of claiming a fourth European crown.
"We have to close down the central space, at the same time as we have to play football," Hjulmand said.
"Germany are one of the hardest-pressing teams at the Euros, they win the ball back very quickly, so it's important that we can play the ball around in there."
And Yussuf Poulsen thinks Denmark can take confidence from Switzerland's display against Germany.
"We are a very good team, we defend very well and have good attackers who can hurt the Germans, I am sure," Poulsen said.
"We have played against each other before and it was an even game. Of course, we also saw how Switzerland did it and we see ourselves as a similar team to Switzerland."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Germany – Niclas Fullkrug
Although he may not start the game in Dortmund, Nagelsmann has a dangerous weapon in his armoury in the shape of Fullkrug.
Fullkrug has scored four goals in six major tournament appearances for Germany, with all those coming as a substitute.
Among all European players to play at least 100 minutes at the World Cup and Euros combined, only Ernst Wilimowski (one every 30 mins) has a better minutes per goal ratio than Fullkrug (one every 35 mins).
Denmark – Christian Eriksen
Eriksen has often been the diamond in the crown of Denmark's midfield, but this could be the midfielder's most influential tournament to date.
In the group stage, he was directly involved in 23 of Denmark's 42 shots, attempting 10 and teeing up a further 13.
He is the first Denmark player to register both 10+ shots and 10+ chances created at a single edition of a major tournament. If the Danes are to upset the odds, Eriksen will likely be crucial.
MATCH PREDICTION: GERMANY WIN
This encounter will be the fifth meeting between Germany and Denmark at a major tournament.
Germany will take comfort from Denmark's record against the host nation of a European Championship, with the Danes losing all five of their previous meetings, including against the Germans themselves in the 1988 group stage.
However, Germany's record at this stage of the Euros has not been impressive of late. Having reached the knockout stage for a fifth consecutive time, Die Mannschaft's last two such matches have both ended in 2-0 defeats, to France at Euro 2016 and England at Euro 2020.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Germany - 57.9%
Draw - 23.3%
Denmark - 18.8%
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