England know a win, but more importantly, a performance is needed when they face Slovenia in Cologne on Tuesday.
The Three Lions squandered the opportunity to secure qualification to the knockout stages of Euro 2024 after a lacklustre display against Denmark last time out.
Harry Kane's 18th-minute opener had given Gareth Southgate's side an early advantage but, much like in their opening 1-0 win against Serbia, England then failed to capitalise on an early lead.
This time they were punished on Thursday when Morten Hjulmand's effort from distance levelled proceedings, with Denmark perhaps unfortunate to not claim all three points.
Many involved with England have already acknowledged they must improve and alterations are expected in an attempt to build momentum heading into the last 16, should they get there.
Here, we use Opta data to preview the Three Lions' final Group C clash.
What's expected?
England are expected to win and top Group C, with the Opta supercomputer handing them a dominant 75.5% chance of getting the job done in Cologne.
Slovenia are predicted a meagre 10.4% likelihood of claiming a maiden triumph against their opponents in the same data-led simulations, with a draw forecast slightly higher at 14.1%.
This will be only England and Slovenia’s second encounter at a major tournament, with the Three Lions winning 1-0 in the group stages of the 2010 World Cup, but Southgate's men have a fine record in this meeting.
Slovenia have failed to win any of their six matches against England across all competitions (D1 L5). Greece and fellow Group C side Denmark are the only opponents they have faced on more occasions (seven) without ever winning a single match.
Yet Matjaz Kek may fancy an upset here as the normally resolute England defence has come under fire at Euro 2024. The Three Lions have faced five more shots than they have attempted in Germany (17 shots, 22 faced).
They have failed to have more attempts than their opponents in five of their last seven Euros group stages (1992, 2000, 2004, 2012, 2020), something that hasn't happened in any of their last seven World Cup group stage appearances between 1998 and 2022.
England are also averaging just 8.9 shots per game at the Euros under Southgate (80 in nine games). Going into Matchday 3, that is the lowest shots per game any nation has had under a manager to take charge of them in more than five matches at the European Championship on record (since 1980).
Southgate will be desperate for his side to rediscover the creative spark that some of their star players have found so easy to muster with their clubs.
Changes expected for England, but who will Southgate turn to?
With a plethora of attacking talent, the right blend of experience and youth, along with players picked to travel to Germany based on current form, England arrived at Euro 2024 among the favourites to win the tournament.
However, any form of cohesion and fluidity is yet to transpire for Southgate's side as jeers echoed around the Frankfurt Arena from the travelling contingent after their underwhelming display against Denmark.
Kane, who scored 44 goals in all competitions in his debut 2023-24 season for Bayern Munich, had the least touches (22) of any England player who started the game on Thursday, while also managing just one touch in the Danes' penalty area.
England's attacking quartet of Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden, Jude Bellingham and Kane managed 114 goals between them in all competitions last season, yet Southgate's men managed just two shots on target, forcing the Three Lions boss into a triple change with 20 minutes to go.
Eberechi Eze, Jarrod Bowen, and Ollie Watkins were introduced but created just one opportunity of note. Meanwhile, Anthony Gordon and Cole Palmer are still yet to make an appearance in the tournament, despite combining for 33 Premier League goals for Newcastle United and Chelsea respectively last term.
Despite creating more chances (three) and playing more line-breaking passes in the final third (five) against Denmark, it looks likely that Trent Alexander-Arnold's time in midfield could be up, but it remains to be seen who will replace him.
Chelsea's Conor Gallagher has replaced him in England's last two games, but only completed 82.4% of his 17 passes against Denmark, also collecting a yellow card for his troubles.
Kobbie Mainoo and Adam Wharton are possible replacements and have shown in the Premier League they are more than capable of stepping up, yet an appearance alongside Declan Rice in midfield would mark both's first feature at a major tournament.
All or nothing for Slovenia
Slovenia know they must achieve the unlikely to keep their Euro 2024 journey alive, with their confidence taking a hit after coming inches away from securing a maiden success at the European Championships.
Luka Jovic's leveller in Thursday's 1-1 draw with Serbia marked the latest result-altering goal in a Euros match of all-time (excluding extra-time), with his equaliser timed at exactly 95 minutes.
That late heartbreak leaves Slovenia winless across five matches at UEFA's flagship international tournament (D4 L1).
It had started well for Kek's side when Zan Karnicnik netted his second international goal, but Slovenia succumbed to a familiar fate.
Their opener was only the second time they'd gone ahead in a game at the finals, with the other instance coming against Yugoslavia at Euro 2000 when Slovenia led 3-0 before collapsing to a 3-3 draw.
Benjamin Sesko showed the greatest promise for Slovenia, having the joint-most shots (two) and shots on target (one) for his side, but was loose in possession, ending the game with a pass accuracy of 55.8% – the second-lowest in the team.
Yet there is still hope for Kek as Slovenia are unbeaten in their last eight games in all competitions (W4 D4), only enjoying a longer such run once in history (nine games between September 2020 and March 2021).
PLAYERS TO WATCH
England – Harry Kane
While much was made of Kane's performance against Denmark, there is no denying the quality he offers the Three Lions in and around the penalty area.
The Bayern Munich striker has only managed two touches in the opposition box at Euro 2024 so far, the same total as both Kyle Walker and Alexander-Arnold.
Yet Kane still scored his fifth goal in his last six appearances at the tournament, with only Wayne Rooney (six) and Alan Shearer (seven) managing more Euros goals for England.
Slovenia – Petar Stojanovic
With England expected to dominate possession on Tuesday, Slovenia's defence will have to be at their best to give them any chance of getting something from the game.
Right-back Petar Stojanovic won possession 11 times against Serbia, with only Ales Ceh at Euro 2000 against Spain (14) managing to win the ball back more often for Slovenia in a major tournament game.
Foden heading back to Germany following birth of third child
England star Phil Foden was set to join back up with his team-mates on Thursday, according to reports.
Foden left England's Euro 2024 camp on Wednesday due to a "pressing family matter".
It was subsequently confirmed Foden was attending the birth of his third child.
The 24-year-old was then travelling back to Germany late on Thursday.
England face Slovakia in the last 16 on Sunday.
Foden has started all three of England's matches at the tournament so far, though the Premier League Player of the Season has so far failed to find his best form.
Guehi insists England squad are behind 'fantastic' Southgate
Marc Guehi has said that England head coach Gareth Southgate has the full confidence of his team-mates as the Three Lions prepare for their last-16 tie with Slovakia.
The England team concluded their Group C campaign with a goalless draw against Slovenia in Cologne, topping the group with five points ahead of Denmark.
But the sound of the full-time whistle was greeted with boos from the travelling Three Lions support, with much of it aimed towards Southgate.
Guehi, who has started every game in Germany so far, has been a shining light for England as he continues to build a solid partnership alongside John Stones.
"He has been fantastic for England. If you look at his record, it speaks for itself," 23-year-old Guehi said on the Three Lions boss.
"Everyone is behind the manager and we have a really close tight-knit group just focused on the next group. Everyone appreciates him, especially me.
"He gave me my debut for England and he’s showed so much confidence in me. I am really grateful and I'm sure the rest of the team is as well."
As the curtain closed on the group stage on Wednesday, a shock Georgia win against Portugal meant that England would avoid the Netherlands in the knockout stages and fall on the favourable side of the draw.
Spain, Germany, Portugal, France and Belgium are in the other half of the draw, adding further expectation for England to end their wait for a first international honour in 58 years.
However, the Crystal Palace defender believes there are no easy games at this stage of the competition.
"Everyone has seen in this competition that I don't think there is a favourable side of the draw," he said. "Every opponent is tough to play against.
"We just need to remain calm. We put pressure on ourselves, but it’s a very calm and focused environment. We just need to continue focusing on one thing at a time."
Switzerland v Italy: Freuler 'not afraid' of Azzurri ahead of last-16 clash
Switzerland midfielder Remo Freuler has insisted his team-mates are not afraid of Italy ahead of their Euro 2024 last-16 meeting in Berlin.
Murat Yakin's side, who finished second in Group A behind hosts Germany, face the Azzurri on Saturday with the hopes of ending their 11-game winless run against their opponents.
Freuler, who was on loan at Bologna from Nottingham Forest last season and was previously with Atalanta, says this will be no ordinary game for him.
"Of course, it's not a match like any other for me. In Italy I built my career, also finding an ideal country to spend my life with my family," he said.
"On Saturday, however, there won't be all this love. It's a round of 16 and there will be no room for feelings."
Freuler knows the next part of the tournament is where the Swiss will really be judged but insists they have nothing to fear from the reigning champions.
"Doing well in the first part of the tournament is important. The matches that make the difference, those capable of changing the dimension of a national team, however, are others," Freuler said.
"But I'm not afraid. Switzerland are not afraid of Italy."
Italy, meanwhile, continue their quest to become the second side to win back-to-back European Championships, having notched four points from their three group games.
The Azzurri were on the cusp of being eliminated from the tournament until Mattia Zaccagni's late strike secured a 1-1 draw with Croatia on matchday three.
Head coach Luciano Spalletti is looking for a much-improved display from his side, who he described as soft following the conclusion of their Group B fixtures.
"We deserved to go through in terms of what we produced out there. We were a bit soft at times during the game, we did not necessarily play our best football," he said.
"We were timid and need to do more. We have players who have the quality to play these games on an equal footing, but sometimes we make trivial mistakes.
"Whenever there is a challenge or a 50-50, we don’t win any. It is not a technical question, it comes down to experience, getting into these physical challenges and being willing to do the dirty work. We need to improve on that score."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Switzerland - Remo Freuler
Remo Freuler has assisted three goals in his last four European Championship appearances for Switzerland, with his latest coming in their 1-1 draw with Germany.
The only Swiss player with more assists at the European Championships is Steven Zuber (four), and the midfielder will be keen to add to his tally in Berlin.
Italy - Gianluigi Donnarumma
Having scored just three goals in their three group games, Italy captain Donnarumma was often the busier goalkeeper in the Azzurri's Group B fixtures.
The Paris Saint-Germain goalkeeper made 11 saves for Italy in the group stages, the most by an Italian goalkeeper in that part of a major tournament since Gianluigi Buffon at Euro 2012 (also 11).
MATCH PREDICTION: ITALY WIN
This will be Switzerland and Italy’s fifth meeting at a major international tournament, with the Swiss winning both games at the 1954 World Cup (2-1 in the groups and 4-1 in a group-stage play-off).
However, Italy have won the last two, both in the group stages and both times 3-0, in the 1962 World Cup and at Euro 2020, and are unbeaten in their last 11 matches against Switzerland in all competitions (six draws, five losses).
But the contest in Berlin has the potential to go beyond the 90 minutes. Fifteen of the Azzurri's last 26 knockout matches at major international tournaments have gone to extra-time, including four of their last five.
Switzerland may be outsiders, but they come into the encounter with confidence, having lost just one of their last 13 matches at the European Championships (four wins, eight draws) and they will be hopeful of improving their woeful record in the knockout stages of major tournaments.
Excluding shoot-outs, they have failed to win any of their seven last-16 matches at major international tournaments (three draws, four defeats), progressing to the quarter-finals on just one occasion at Euro 2020 by beating France on penalties.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Switzerland - 31.4%
Draw - 30.3%
Italy - 38.4%
SportsMax is the Caribbean sports channel of choice, committed to providing sporting content of the highest quality to the Caribbean, delivered by a team of highly innovative, passionate and qualified professionals.
(876) 619-7629
digitalmedia@sportsmax.tv
