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• The Numbers Game: Can Georgia's dream run continue at Euro 2024?

  Following the conclusion of the Euro 2024 group stages, Spain remain the only team to win all their games ahead of their last-16 tie against Georgia in Cologne. 

  La Roja ended their group campaign with a 1-0 victory over Albania that featured a much-changed side, with Ferran Torres' early strike enough to secure the win.

  However, they will face a Georgia side brimming with self-belief after their maiden triumph at a major international tournament over Portugal last time out. 

  Willy Sagnol's side have captured the hearts of football fans across the world, but know the enormity of the task ahead of them, with these teams having played against each other during qualifying.

  Many expect Spain to maintain their winning start at Euro 2024, but as this tournament has proved already, anything can happen. 

  Here, we use Opta data to preview Sunday's clash.

  What's expected?

  Spain are expected to win this one, with the Opta supercomputer handing them a dominant 75% chance of getting the job done in Cologne.

  Georgia triumphed in just 10.7% in the data-led simulations, with a draw forecast slightly higher at 14.4%. 

  This will be Spain's eighth meeting with Georgia, but their first at a major tournament. La Roja have won six of their seven matches against the minnows in all competitions, all of which have been since 2012.

  Spain won both qualifying games by an aggregate score of 10-2 (7-1 away, 3-1 home), but the tournament version of Georgia could present a much sterner test.

  And Luis de la Fuente's team must approach with caution, as Spain's recent record in the knockout stages has been far from impressive.

  They were eliminated in the last 16 of the 2018 World Cup and 2022 World Cup, losing on penalties to Russia and Morocco respectively, though they did reach the semi-finals of Euro 2020.

  With much of the spotlight on Spain's attack, their defence has impressed, and they are yet to concede a goal in Germany. The last time they managed to keep four consecutive clean sheets at a major tournament was back in 2012 (a run of five) – the last time they claimed silverware.

  Spain's vibrant attackers are also set to come up against the tournament's in-form goalkeeper.

   

  Georgia's Giorgi Mamardashvili, who plays for Valencia, has saved 16 of the last 17 shots on target he has faced at Euro 2024, and he could be in for another busy day.

  Willy Sagnol's side faced the most shots (71), most on target (25), and had the highest xG conceded (8.1) of any nation in the group stage, with the only side to face more than 71 shots in the group stage of a Euros being Latvia in 2004 (86).

  However, Georgia's performances in Group F have given them the confidence to be fearless against the three-time European Champions. A win will see them become the fourth team since the quarter-finals were introduced to reach that stage in their first Euros. 

  Spain's depth of quality 

  Riding the crest of a new wave of emerging talent, Spain are back among the best teams in world football, with Luis Enrique's possession obsession having gone stale.

  De la Fuente made 10 changes against Albania, and their strength in depth, which has lacked in major tournaments gone by, is definitely a key quality.

  Torres, for example, scored the only goal against Albania and has now seen him directly involved in seven goals across nine appearances for Spain under De la Fuente (five goals, two assists), with no Spain player being involved in more goals under him, but the Barcelona forward is unlikely to start on Sunday.

   

  Dani Olmo provided his fourth assist at the European Championship finals on what was his seventh such appearance, with only Cesc Fabregas providing more for Spain in the competition since records began in 1964 (five), but he too has had to settle for a back-up role in Germany.

  And finally, Alex Grimaldo created five chances against Albania, the most of any Spanish defender in a single match at a major tournament on record (since 1980). Yet Marc Cucurella was preferred at left-back in the first two matches. 

  It is likely that a more familiar Spanish side will take to the pitch, but the head coach will have confidence in his bench players to make an impact, should they be needed.

  Attack is the best form of defence for Georgia

  Georgia are under no illusions that they must upset the odds to keep their fairytale run at Euro 2024 alive, but getting on the front foot early, as they did against Portugal, seems to be their best hope.

  Khvicha Kvaratskhelia's goal after 01:32 is the earliest Portugal has ever conceded in the competition, and another Georgian will be hard-pressed to break what is now a national record at a major tournament.

  Georges Mikautadze's penalty ensured Georgia inflicted the Selecao's first competitive defeat under coach Roberto Martínez.

  They became the first European nation to qualify from the group stage in their first major tournament since Iceland at Euro 2016 and have the attacking talent to continue their journey. 

  Kvaratskhelia proved a considerable thorn in Portugal's side during their encounter, registering the joint-most shots (three) of anyone on the pitch while leading the way in shots on target (two) and touches in the opposition box (four) for Georgia.

  On the other hand, they conceded 22 shots and had just 27.6% possession, but showcased their clinical nature, outperforming their expected goals (xG) by 0.35. 

   

  PLAYERS TO WATCH 

  Spain - Lamine Yamal

  At 17, Lamine Yamal has taken to his first major tournament like a seasoned professional as he continues to impress on the international stage. 

  Yamal is yet to find the back of the net for La Roja in Germany, but registered an assist for Dani Carvajal's header against Croatia in their opening game. 

  And his creativity, along with that of Nico Williams, in wide areas could be pivotal. They have each created 5+ chances and completed 5+ dribbles at Euro 2024.  This is the first time multiple players have done so for Spain in a group stage at a major tournament since Andres Iniesta and David Silva at Euro 2016.

  Georgia - Georges Mikautadze

  If you said a striker from the lowest-ranked team in the tournament would be the top scorer after the group stages, many would have scoffed. But Georgia and Mikautadze continue to rip up the script in Germany. 

  Mikautadze has played a part in all four of Georgia’s goals at Euro 2024, scoring three and setting up another, with his latest strike coming from the penalty spot in their triumph over Portugal. 

  He became only the fourth player to score in each of his country's first three matches at the Euros after Gareth Bale for Wales (2016), Hristo Stoichkov for Bulgaria (1996) and Viktor Ponedelnik for USSR (1960 & 1964). 

• Euro 2024: The group stage's lucky winners and unlucky losers

  The Euro 2024 group stage is done and dusted.

  Croatia were the biggest name to fail to make the knockouts, as they and Hungary were the two third-placed sides to miss out on the last 16.

  Previous finalists Italy and England progressed along with the likes of hosts Germany, France, Spain and Portugal, though some nations were more fortunate to advance than others.

  Here, we use Opta data to assess the unlucky losers and the lucky winners from the Euro 2024 group stage, both in terms of individual matches and the first phase of the tournament as a whole.
   

  UNLUCKY LOSERS

  Croatia

  Let's start with the tournament's biggest expected goals (xG) underperformers so far... and the big-name casualty of the group stage.

  Luka Modric became the oldest player to score at the Euros in the tournament's history on matchday three, and that goal against Italy seemed to be sending Croatia through from Group B, only for Mattia Zaccagni to rescue the Azzurri late on.

  That 1-1 draw condemned Croatia to third place. But they were highly unfortunate not to take more than two points.

   

  They lost 3-0 to a rampant Spain on matchday one, despite accumulating 2.38 xG to La Roja's 2.01. They then amassed 2.69 xG against Albania, only to concede late on in a 2-2 draw.

  Indeed, Croatia finished with an accumulative xG total of 6.55, which leads the tournament, yet they only managed three goals.

  Defensively, they can consider themselves unfortunate too. Croatia conceded six goals from an xG against (xGA) of 4.37, though their 15 shots on target faced does rank joint-fifth worst. Ultimately, Zlatko Dalic's team allowed too many efforts on goal, and they paid the price for profligate finishing at the other end. 

  Czechia

  Czechia finished bottom of Group F, with Georgia the surprise package as they stunned Portugal to claim third place.

  Despite not winning a match, Czechia recorded 5.11 xG in total, the sixth-highest figure in the tournament.

   

  Interestingly, the four Group F teams (Portugal, Turkiye, Georgia and Czechia) all rank in the top nine for xG so far.

  Czechia converted that xG into just three goals, though, with Patrik Schick - who shared the Golden Boot with Cristiano Ronaldo at Euro 2020 - failing to spark like he did three years ago.

  But, we can't pin Czechia's failure on their finishing. Their xG on target (xGoT) of 6.01 shows they were forcing opposition goalkeepers into action, with Ivan Hasek's team leading the way for shots on target (20, equal with Germany). Czechia's 6.82% shot conversion rate was the lowest in Group F, though.

  Ukraine

  For the first time in the history of the Euros, four teams in one pool all finished level - that was in Group E, with Romania, Belgium, Slovakia and Ukraine all collecting four points.

  Ukraine were the unfortunate team to miss out, as they became the first side in Euros history to finish bottom of the group while earning four points. Ouch.

  What do the metrics say? Well, they should probably have scored a goal more than the two they managed, having accumulated 3.07 xG. Their shot conversion rate of 5.13% ranks 19th out of 24, though.

  At the other end of the pitch, even though they only had a total xGA of 2.95 across the three games, they were punished by some quality finishing from Romania in an opening 3-0 defeat, which ultimately proved decisive in their exit.

  LUCKY WINNERS

  Italy

  It's a good job for the holders that Zaccagni curled in late on against Croatia. If not, and if results in other groups had gone as they have done, then the Azzurri would not have made it through as one of the best third-placed teams.

  As it was, they did get that crucial goal against Croatia, despite mustering just 0.9 xG, so they made it through in second and will now face Switzerland in the last 16.

  With Germany, Spain, France and Portugal on the other side of the bracket, could a path be opening up for Luciano Spalletti's team to defend their title, against the odds?

  Italy generated just 2.62 xG across their three games, the sixth-lowest in the competition, while they have only had nine shots on target, more than only Scotland (three), Serbia (six) and Slovenia (seven).

  They are on the kinder half of the draw, but it's fair to say they are fortunate to be there.

  Georgia

  It is fantastic to see tournament debutants Georgia make it into the knockouts, and based on their performance against Portugal, in a 2-0 win, it is hard to say they didn't deserve it.

  Georges Mikautadze is the first player to score or assist in each of his first three games at the European Championship since Gareth Bale for Wales in 2016, and as it stands, he is also the unlikely leader in the Golden Boot race.

  That being said, the metrics do not reflect particularly well on Willy Sagnol's team, who have been defensively wide open, facing a tournament-high 71 shots, with 25 of those (another competition high) hitting the target. In fact, they have given up over 3.0 xG in two of their three matches so far.

   

  They have been hugely reliant on goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili, who has prevented the most goals of any shot-stopper in the tournament based on Opta's xGoT model (four goals conceded from 7.6 xGoT).

  Mamardashvili is likely to have to be on top form again if Georgia are to shock Spain on Sunday.

  Going the other way, Georgia have only had 26 shots (only Scotland, with 17, managed fewer), but their shot conversion rate is an impressive 15.38%, the third-highest in the tournament. 

  You have to have luck on your side to win a tournament, but is this going to be sustainable in the knockouts?

  England

  Much has been made of England's poor performances in Germany, considering the attacking talent Gareth Southgate has at his disposal.

   

  And the metrics do support those moans and groans - the Three Lions' 2.19 xG is the third-lowest in the competition.

  However, they also have the stingiest defence, having kept two clean sheets and given up just 1.15 xG. 

  England, though, have certainly been fortunate that Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia hardly offered the sternest of opponents in Group C. They have landed in the kinder half of the draw, but it's time for the pre-tournament favourites to click into gear.

• New England Revolution v Columbus Crew: Nancy hoping to build on important win

  Wilfried Nancy insists Columbus Crew must continue to build on their recent winning run when they travel to face New England Revolution this Sunday. 

  The Crew returned to winning ways in style following their defeat to Inter Miami, beating Kansas City 4-0 last time out courtesy of Cucho Hernandez's hat-trick. 

  Nancy's side sit in fifth place in the Eastern Conference, two points behind Charlotte FC but with the luxury of three games in hand compared to Dean Smith's side. 

  Despite their convincing victory in their last MLS fixture, Nancy is looking to replicate the Crew's four-game unbeaten run they enjoyed last month moving forwards.

  “It was really important also when I made all the changes that we stay focused on the task,” Nancy said.

  “With all the celebration also was not easy because we can switch really quickly.

  "I really wanted to help my team to have a clean sheet if possible and to score more goals because this is the level that we want to have. I don't like when we take everything for granted.”

  Meanwhile, the Revs also come into the fixture on an impressive run of form, beating high-flyers FC Cincinnati 2-1 away from home to extend their winning streak to four matches in the MLS. 

  Caleb Porter's side welcome the Crew to the Gillette Stadium this weekend in search of improving their home form to climb up the Eastern Conference table.

  New England have won just three of their last seven games in front of their supporters and know a win will see them move up from 12th in the standings, along with games in hand on many of the surrounding sides. 

  PLAYERS TO WATCH:

  New England – Cucho Hernandez

  Cucho Hernandez scored his third career MLS hat-trick in the Crew’s win over Kansas City on Saturday, with all three coming within his last 20 games.

  The Colombian is just the ninth player in MLS history to score three hat-tricks in a span of 20 games.

  Columbus Crew – Giacomo Vrioni

  It looks set to a battle of both side's goal-scoring forwards, with Giacomo Vrioni looking to continue his hot streak for Nancy's side. 

  Vrioni scored both of New England’s goals against Cincinnati on Saturday, the first time a Revolution player has scored more than one goal in a game this season.

  MATCH PREDICTION: COLUMBUS CREW WIN

  The Crew come into the encounter in much the better form, having won five of their last six league matches (L1) following their win over Sporting Kansas City. 

  However, New England also boast an impressive winning streak of their own. Porter's side have won four consecutive matches, having previously won just four of their previous league matches dating back to the beginning of September last year (D4 L14).

  And it was the Crew who emerged victorious in the side's last meeting. The win over New England last October ended a string of five straight draws between the sides. Columbus have lost only one of their last 12 against New England (W5 D6) dating back to 2018.

  OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

  New England - 27.1%

  Draw - 23.9%

  Columbus Crew - 49%