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• The Numbers Game: Can Chelsea dent title hopes of misfiring Gunners?

  Ten matches into the Premier League season, Arsenal's hopes of ending their long wait for a league title are already in danger.

  Last week's 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United made it just seven points from five games, and they now trail leaders Liverpool by seven points.

  Injuries and suspensions have taken their toll on Arteta's men, and things do not get much easier for them on Sunday, against a Chelsea team currently above them on goal difference.

  Enzo Maresca's Blues fought back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United last time out, and only Manchester City and Liverpool have beaten them since the Italian took over.

  We delve into the Opta data to preview Sunday's headline fixture at Stamford Bridge.

  What's expected?

  Given the two sides are only separated on goal difference ahead of Sunday's match, the Opta supercomputer finds it difficult to split. 

  Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Arsenal were victorious in 41.2%, giving them a slight edge over their hosts, who are a 33.2% shot.

  The likelihood of a draw is rated at 25.6%, but you sense Arsenal need to take all three points after seeing their hopes of winning the title drop to 4.4% in Opta's season predictions. Chelsea's own hopes are rated at 0.3%, with City (61.9%) still clear favourites ahead of Liverpool (33.4%).

  Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (two draws, six defeats), a 2-0 away win in August 2021. The Gunners have managed three victories in their last four league trips to Stamford Bridge (one draw) – as many victories as they recorded in their previous 20 visits (seven draws, 10 defeats).

  Arsenal have also won their last six Premier League London derby matches by an aggregate score of 22-3, winning six of those matches by five or more goals.

  One such occasion was a 5-0 rout of Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium last April, their biggest-ever margin of victory against the Blues in all competitions.

  Blues eye statement victory

  When the Premier League fixture list was drawn up, even the most optimistic Chelsea fan may have struggled to visualise the Blues sitting ahead of Arsenal in the table after 10 games.

  But Maresca's side have shown promising signs in the early stages of his tenure. Chelsea's last two Premier League defeats this season have come against last season's top three teams – 0-5 versus Arsenal in April, 0-2 versus City in August and 1-2 against Liverpool in October.

  They are unbeaten in their last 21 matches against all other teams, winning 14 and drawing seven while scoring 57 goals in total across those games.

  The future looks bright for Chelsea, who fielded a starting lineup with an average age of 23 years and 96 days at Old Trafford last week – their youngest-ever XI for a Premier League match against Manchester United.

  However, they are still waiting on a first statement win under Maresca, and getting one over on the Gunners would earn him plenty of goodwill among the fans.

  Their chances could be decided by the fitness of Cole Palmer, who is an injury doubt after suffering a knock against United.

  He opened the scoring when the Blues last welcomed Arsenal to west London for a 2-2 draw last October, scoring his first Premier League goal at Stamford Bridge.

  Since then, he has more home goals in the competition than any other player (21), also leading the way for goal involvements (12 – seven goals, five assists, alongside Mohamed Salah) and open-play chances created in 2024-25.

  Can fit-again Odegaard get Gunners firing?

  Last season, Arsenal won 42 of their 89 Premier League points on their travels, taking nine points from five matches at the homes of their Big Six rivals. 

  This campaign, however, their failure to hit top form on the road has threatened to end their latest title tilt before it truly got going. 

  Arsenal have collected seven points from five away matches this term, the same amount as Brighton and fewer than Liverpool (13), Nottingham Forest (11), Chelsea, City and Aston Villa (all 10).

  While Arteta has long preached the importance of control, Arsenal have simply not been good enough going forward in those matches. They have attempted just 37 shots on the road in the Premier League this season (7.4 per game), with only Brentford (seven) averaging fewer per away match across the entire division.

  The fact Arsenal played significant amounts of time at Manchester City and Bournemouth with a numerical disadvantage likely plays a part, but the fact five teams have attempted at least twice as many shots on the road does not make for good reading (Manchester City 90, Tottenham 83, Crystal Palace 79, Bournemouth 78 and Manchester United 74).

  Martin Odegaard's return to training after two months out with an ankle injury is a major boost, with the Norwegian having led all players in the Premier League for expected assists (11.17 xA) and chances created from open play (88) last season.

  Arsenal have actually outperformed their underlying attacking metrics this campaign, netting 17 league goals from 15.75 expected goals (xG), so their finishing does not appear to be an issue. The fact they rank eighth in the league for xG does, however, suggest chance creation is a problem.

  Arteta will hope Odegaard's return can make the difference, or a title challenge may prove a bridge too far. The last time they lost three successive away Premier League games was in December 2021, and they went on to miss out on a top-four finish that season.

  The Norwegian was a late substitute as they were beaten 1-0 by Inter in the Champions League on Wednesday. They have now lost three of their last six games in all competitions, as many as their previous 32 beforehand.

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Chelsea – Nicolas Jackson 

  Since the start of last season, Chelsea striker Jackson has been involved in more London derby goals than any other player in the Premier League (10 goals, two assists).

  All of his 12 involvements have come in his last nine such appearances, and he already has six Premier League goals this term.

  Arsenal – Bukayo Saka 

  Saka has provided more assists than any other player in the Premier League this season (seven). 

  He has also either scored (once) or assisted (twice) a goal in each of his last three away games against Chelsea in the Premier League, with Sergio Aguero (2013 to 2017) and Javier Hernandez (2012 to 2018) the only visiting players to do so in four consecutive appearances.

• Kompany unbothered by modest scoreline as Bayern beat Benfica

  Vincent Kompany was pleased with the way Bayern Munich attacked at home to Benfica in the Champions League on Wednesday, despite only winning 1-0.

  The victory ended a run of back-to-back defeats for the German team in the competition, leaving them 17th in the league with six points from four matches. 

  "It's important for us to win a game this way. In the past, we always scored three, four or five goals, but today we stayed calm," Kompany told the official club website.

  "We had 24 shots on goal and the opposition had one. Not every finish was dangerous, but we controlled the game. There are games in which the last pass just isn't as precise as necessary.

  "We know we can decide matches within the first five minutes if we're on good form. That didn't happen today. But in the end, it's the Champions League. It was a good game and a good win."

  Midfielder Jamal Musiala scored the only goal of the game in the 67th minute, turning home Harry Kane's knockdown after Leroy Sane had played the ball across the box.

  Sane is yet to start a game in any competition for Bayern this season, coming on in the 56th minute on Wednesday, but his contribution was not lost on Kompany.

  "Obviously, I'm really happy to have the quality of Leroy Sane and Michael Olise in the same position - not to forget Kingsley Coman and Serge Gnabry. You can say Leroy turned this game around today," he said.

  The goalscorer Musiala, meanwhile, was pleased after scoring his fifth goal in all competitions for the club this season.

  “We had good moments, but the opposition played and defended well. Of course, there are still things we can improve, but it's important to have won the three points," he said.

  "I don't know what's going on with me scoring headers at the moment. The ball dropped nicely for me a few times and I just keep trying to get into good positions I can score easy goals from.

  "We all knew we had to win tonight and we did a good job. We had a tough time settling into the game, but we can't win by four or five goals every time. Sometimes a 1-0 win has to be enough.”

• Women's Super League predictions: Man City and Arsenal backed for victory

  Brighton have been one of the stories of the season so far, and head into matchday seven of the Women's Super League season in third place.

  Yet the Seagulls will face a huge test when they travel to face Arsenal on Friday, in one of two matches taking place that day to kick off the WSL weekend.

  League leaders Manchester City are also in action on Friday, taking on Tottenham.

  On Sunday, reigning champions Chelsea - fresh from a 5-0 win at Goodison Park - are back on Merseyside to play Liverpool.

  Four of the bottom five play each other, with Crystal Palace taking on Everton and West Ham going up against Leicester City, with Manchester United, who drew 1-1 with Arsenal last week, rounding out the weekend against Aston Villa.

  Here, we delve into the pre-match facts, and take a look at the Opta supercomputer's predictions, for each of the fixtures.

  ARSENAL V BRIGHTON

  Arsenal are unbeaten under interim boss Renee Slegers, and despite Brighton's fantastic start to the season, the Gunners are predicted to claim the points.

  They have a whopping 82.1% chance of victory on Friday, with Brighton's win probability at just 6.8%. The threat of a draw is 11.2%.

  Arsenal have a perfect record against Brighton in the WSL, winning all 12 of their meetings with them in the competition by an aggregate score of 44-2. Only Manchester City have a better 100% record against an opponent in the competition (16/16 v Everton).

  Brighton, though, have won four of their six league games this season (D1 L1), just one fewer victory than they managed across the whole of last season (W5 D4 L13). This is the Seagulls' best start after six matches of a WSL campaign.

  Arsenal are winless in their last three home games in the league (D2 L1) – only once have they had a longer run without a win on home soil in the competition (six between May-October 2014). Brighton, though, have never won back-to-back away matches in the competition (they beat Crystal Palace in their last away game).

  Nikita Parris has been in fine form for Brighton, and she will go up against her former club. No player has scored more goals in the WSL against their old teams than Parris (nine, level with Ellen White).

  Beth Mead could be the player to really stand out for Arsenal. Against no side does she have more combined WSL goals and assists than Brighton (12 – seven goals, five assists).

  MANCHESTER CITY V TOTTENHAM

  Arsenal are the most likely side to win, according to Opta's model, this weekend, but league leaders Man City are just behind them.

  City came out on top in 81.8% of the supercomputer's 10,000 pre-match simulations ahead of their game against Tottenham, whose win probability is 6.9%. 

  Spurs' only win on their four previous trips to face City in the WSL came in September 2021, coming from behind to win 2-1 (L3).

  City have won eight of their nine WSL meetings with Tottenham (L1), winning the last five in a row by an aggregate score of 16-1.

  Only Chelsea (20) have scored more goals in the 2024-25 WSL than Tottenham (12 – level with Man City), however only Palace (16) have conceded more goals than Spurs (14) this term.

  City have gone unbeaten through their opening six games of a WSL season for the fourth time after 2016, 2017-18 and 2018-19, while they have never lost in the competition when playing on a Friday (W3 D1), beating reigning champions Chelsea in their only such game last season (1-0 away).

  LIVERPOOL V CHELSEA

  Sonia Bampastor has had a brilliant start to life at Chelsea, and the Blues are expected to keep up that excellent form when they face Liverpool.

  Chelsea's win likelihood is 73.1%, while there is a 15.1% probability of a draw, while Liverpool's chances are rated at 11.8%.

  Bompastor could become the first manager to win each of their first four away games in the WSL. Chelsea have already scored 14 goals on the road this season, with the previous most scored under a manager after four away games being 11 by Jonas Eidevall's Arsenal. 

  Matt Beard, meanwhile, has won four of his 10 WSL meetings with Chelsea as Liverpool manager (D1 L5) – including his most recent in May 2024 (4-3) – with Nick Cushing (five) and David Parker (five) the only managers to win more games in the competition against the Blues.

  Chelsea have won their opening five games of a WSL season for the very first time and could be the sixth team to win their first six matches of a campaign after Arsenal (2018-19, 2021-22, 2022-23) and Man City (2016, 2017-18).

  This will be the 23rd WSL meeting between Liverpool and Chelsea with only Arsenal and Chelsea meeting more often in the competition (28 times).

  Despite the Blues being favourites for this one, it is worth noting Chelsea won four consecutive WSL away games against Liverpool between September 2015 and March 2019 but are since winless in their last three such trips (D1 L2).  

  CRYSTAL PALACE V EVERTON

  Things are not going well for Everton this season. They are bottom of the pile and without a win to their name.

  They visit Palace on Sunday, and the supercomputer is anticipating a tight contest. The hosts' chances are rated at 37.3%, with Everton's at 36.3%. The draw is at 26.4%.

  Everton's two points is their joint-worst tally at this stage of a WSL campaign along with 2014, when they were relegated, and 2018-19 (finished 10th).

  Everton are, however, unbeaten in their last eight WSL games against newly-promoted opposition (W6 D2), winning each of their last four such away games by an aggregate score of 14-0.  

  Palace have lost all three of their home games in the WSL without scoring, conceding 11 goals in the process; only three teams have lost each of their first four matches on home soil in the competition: Yeovil Town in 2017 (-9 GD), Aston Villa in 2020 (-11 GD) and Leicester City in 2021 (-8 GD).

  WEST HAM V LEICESTER CITY

  West Ham are unbeaten in three previous home games against Leicester in the WSL (W2 D1), drawing this fixture 1-1 last season, and the Hammers are expected to end their wait for a win this season when they face the Foxes on Sunday.

  Leicester won just 25.6% of the model's simulations, while West Ham won 48.6%.

  West Ham are, however, the team that is most likely to finish bottom of the WSL this term, according to the supercomputer.

  The Hammers are winless in their last 15 WSL games (D6 L9) while their two points from six games this term is their worst return at this stage of a top-flight campaign (D2 L4).

  Indeed, West Ham have won fewer points (12 – W2 D6 L10) than any other ever-present team in the WSL in 2024, while they have lost each of their last five league games in the month of November, since beating Leicester 1-0 in 2022.

  Leicester, though, have won just one of their last 13 away games in the WSL (D6 L6), a 1-0 victory at Everton in January.

  MANCHESTER UNITED V ASTON VILLA

  Rounding off this round of matches is Man Utd's home game against Villa.

  Marc Skinner's team, who are still unbeaten, are backed to get the win at 73.4%, with Villa having a slender 11.2% chance.

  With just two points from six games, Villa have had their worst start to a WSL campaign (D2 L4) and this is the first time they have gone winless across their opening six matches.

  Villa have lost all four of their away meetings with United in the WSL, conceding 15 goals and netting just once in the process, with that sole goal coming in this fixture last season when losing 1-2.  

  United may be unbeaten, though they have drawn their last two WSL games. The Red Devils could draw three successive league matches for the first time since November 2021.

  Their success has been built on solid foundations this season. United have conceded just two goals after five league games, facing fewer than 10 shots in three of those matches.