The stats to look out for as you finalise your Fantasy Premier League squad

By Sports Desk August 03, 2023

Millions of fantasy football managers are tinkering with their teams ahead of next weekend’s opening round of Premier League fixtures.

Launched back in 2002-03, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) continues to grow in popularity, with the number of managers increasing from fewer than 100,000 in its first year to 11.4 million at the end of last season.

Here, the PA news agency provides some tips for effective squad selection, using data from the game’s official website.

Follow the fixtures

FPL managers study players’ form and fixtures when choosing a squad, but – with only pre-season friendlies to go on – the latter takes precedence at the start of a new campaign.

Thanks to a metric that powers the website’s Fixture Difficulty Ratings, it is possible to rank teams according to their opponents’ strength.

Chelsea have the easiest start to the season based on opposition ratings up to gameweek eight, with Mauricio Pochettino’s side facing Luton, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, Fulham and Burnley during that period.

The Blues’ players could become popular picks again having barely featured in FPL teams during their disastrous finish to 2022-23.

Last season’s title rivals Manchester City and Arsenal could prove valuable sources of premium players, with both sides benefiting from appealing fixtures until their meeting on October 7, while managers may look to Everton for budget options given their generous early schedule.

In contrast, several teams that battled relegation last season – most notably Wolves and Forest – have been handed tricky starts, as have the three promoted sides.

Burnley and Luton are especially hard done by with tough openers against City and Brighton respectively preceding a blank gameweek, caused by the postponement of their scheduled match at Kenilworth Road.

Back the best teams

According to latest ownership figures, almost one-fifth of FPL spending is on Manchester City players at present, with the average manager using £19.2m of their £100m budget on the reigning champions.

As well as being the most expensive player in the game at £14.0m, Erling Haaland is comfortably the most popular pick, with the Norwegian currently appearing in more than 86 per cent of teams.

Arsenal players are also generating plenty of interest, with £15.3m of a typical budget being allocated to Mikel Arteta’s men.

Bukayo Saka is the Gunners’ most prized asset, selected by 55 per cent of managers, ahead of Gabriel Jesus whose ownership is falling after the Brazilian sustained a knee injury in pre-season.

Manchester United (£10.6m) and Liverpool (£10.1m) players are attracting investment too, while Brighton (£8.4m) and Newcastle (£7.6m) are proving more popular than Chelsea (£4.7m) and Tottenham (£4.3m) despite having tougher early fixtures.

FPL managers appear to be most pessimistic about Wolves’ prospects, with just £0.5m out of every £100m being spent on their players.

Check the underlying stats

With managers looking to gain an edge over an increasing number of rivals, the FPL website has started publishing players’ expected goals and assists alongside their actual returns.

This allows virtual bosses to identify players who are over and underperforming their projected output, perhaps due to their finishing ability or a run of good or bad luck.

Among players who recorded at least 10 expected goal involvements last season, Manchester City’s Phil Foden was the biggest overachiever.

The England midfielder scored 11 goals and provided seven assists, which represented an increase of 72 per cent on his expected returns.

Leandro Trossard registered a similar level of overperformance across spells at Arsenal and Brighton, while Tottenham’s Harry Kane racked up 56 per cent more goals and assists than the average player might have managed in the same situations.

Meanwhile, Arsenal’s new signing Kai Havertz underperformed in his final season at Chelsea, having mustered only eight goal involvements from an expected tally of more than 14.

Liverpool’s Alexis Mac Allister – formerly of Brighton – and Newcastle’s Kieran Trippier also underachieved despite enjoying impressive campaigns.

Trippier was the game’s highest-scoring defender with 198 points, but his chances created justified up to three extra attacking returns.

Related items

  • Mbappe position switch works wonders for Ancelotti Mbappe position switch works wonders for Ancelotti

    Carlo Ancelotti was satisfied his tactical decision to switch Kylian Mbappe's position in attack paid off in Real Madrid's 3-0 win over Leganes.

    Mbappe scored his seventh goal of the season to help Madrid to a comfortable victory in LaLiga on Sunday.

    However, his position in Madrid's front line has been a topic of debate since he joined the Spanish champions, with Mbappe having often played out wide while at Paris Saint-Germain.

    And Ancelotti elected to switch Mbappe out to the left flank against Leganes, with Vinicius Junior spearheading Los Blancos' attack.

    "Mbappe played on the left side, where he did well, and Vinicius on the inside," Ancelotti told reporters.

    "We have to highlight their play to open the scoring. They did very, very well. Mbappe scored, after a fantastic assist from Vinicius. Little by little, they're both improving.

    "Kylian is more used to playing there and today, for the team and for him, it was the best thing.

    "Because playing on the outside brings more effort and Vinicius was back on Thursday. Meanwhile, Kylian had been training here for a week and a half, he was fresher."

    Mbappe was not called up by France coach Didier Deschamps for this month's Nations League games, despite being Les Bleus' captain.

    With an injury crisis at the back and a trip to Anfield to face Premier League and Champions League leaders Liverpool coming up, Ancelotti added he was hopeful of Lucas Vazquez, who has a hamstring strain, and Aurelien Tchouameni, who is recovering from a sprained left ankle, returning to action.

    He was also upbeat about the contribution of Federico Valverde, who scored from a free-kick while filling in at right-back.

    "The truth is that Fede, at the back, has done very well," said Ancelotti of the Uruguayan, who also wore the captain's armband. 

    "He's a fantastic fullback. After Dani Carvajal and Lucas Vazquez, the best right-back in the world. His problem is that he can play at this level in many positions and is the coach's problem to choose the best position for the team.

    "Let's see if Lucas and Tchouameni can recover. If not, we will make decisions."

    Jude Bellingham netted Madrid's other goal as Ancelotti's team closed to within four points of LaLiga leaders Barcelona, who drew 2-2 with Celta Vigo on Saturday.

    Madrid also have a game in hand on Hansi Flick's side.

  • Orlando City 1-0 Atlanta United: Enrique strike sets up Red Bulls clash Orlando City 1-0 Atlanta United: Enrique strike sets up Red Bulls clash

    Atlanta United beat Inter Miami in the first round of the MLS playoffs, yet their postseason came to an end with a 1-0 defeat to Orlando City.

    The Five Stripes went into Sunday's Eastern Conference semifinal at Inter&Co Stadium full of confidence after ditching Lionel Messi and the rest of Miami's stars out of the playoffs last time out.

    Yet it was Orlando who, for the first time in club history, booked their place in the Eastern Conference finals thanks to Ramiro Enrique's 39th-minute winner.

    Enrique tucked in from close range after Atlanta failed to clear their lines from a corner.

    That goal came after Orlando had started brightly, with Dagur Thorhallsson hitting the woodwork early on before Facundo Torres saw an effort cleared off the line.

    Buoyed by a fine record against Orlando, who they had lost to just four times in 22 meetings ahead of this contest, Atlanta pressed for an equaliser after the break, but they could not find a way through a robust Lions defence.

    Orlando will now host the New York Red Bulls in next week's Eastern Conference final, with a place in the MLS Cup final on the line.

    Data Debrief: Stay away from the Lions' den

    Fresh from the Orlando Pride's victory in the National Women's Soccer League on Saturday, Orlando had plenty to live up to if they wanted to cap a great sporting weekend for the city.

    And they did just that, with the backing of a vociferous crowd that helped them get over the line. Those fans will be called on again next week when the Red Bulls roll into town, but Orlando need not fear. They have lost only one of their last 14 home matches in all competitions (W9 D4 including two penalty shootout wins and one penalty shootout loss). 

    And while Atlanta huffed and puffed, they never really threatened to blow the door down, as Orlando limited them to just eight shots, with none of those hitting the target.

    Indeed, Orlando had openings on the counter and could have put the match to bed with a bit more composure, as they finished with 1.3 expected goals to Atlanta's 0.4 xG.

  • Conte: Napoli need to focus on improvement, not Serie A lead Conte: Napoli need to focus on improvement, not Serie A lead

    Napoli should pay little attention to their place at the top of Serie A, so says Antonio Conte, who has demanded improvement from his team.

    Romelu Lukaku's second-half goal handed Napoli a 1-0 win over Roma on Sunday.

    That victory sent Napoli back to the summit of Serie A, with Conte's side one point ahead of Atalanta, Inter, Fiorentina and Lazio, while Juventus are only four points back in a six-team title race.

    Napoli needed to get back to winning ways after a draw against Inter and a 3-0 loss to Atalanta before the international break, and Conte insists his team must sharpen up.

    "Before the match, I told the lads not to look at the table, but to focus on ourselves and improving what we are working on," Conte told Sky Sport Italia.

    "I maintain that now too because we need to take a series of steps to raise the level.

    "I was satisfied with the performance for a good 65 minutes today, we could’ve taken more of our chances and were up against a strong Roma who have great players.

    "Roma were also making their debut under a new coach and therefore were very eager to prove themselves, but we still should've dealt with the final 15-20 minutes better, as we sat too deep and made it complicated for ourselves."

    Roma, playing under new boss Claudio Ranieri, came close to equalising when Artem Dovbyk hit the woodwork with a header. 

    Ranieri came out of retirement to take charge of Roma following Ivan Juric's dismissal earlier in November, though the visitors had just six shots and accumulated only 0.6 expected goals (xG) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.

    "If we look back, we have some problems and that is why I was called. We were up against a team that is fighting to win the Scudetto," Ranieri told Sky Sport Italia.

    "Having said all of that, I am happy with the performance from my players. We made some mistakes that we will talk about during the week, but the hunger, the determination to get back on track was there.

    "We have a lot of work to do, but I feel positive.

    "We know there is work to be done, we have to focus on reacting rather than sitting there feeling sorry for ourselves.

    "The [players] need the right character to help themselves and then others. Naturally, when I arrived, the team was a little closed up, but I think we started to open up a bit by the second half."

© 2024 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.