The three teams relegated from the Premier League have been handed a seemingly-comfortable start to the new season after Thursday’s release of the new campaign’s EFL fixtures.
Leicester, Leeds and Southampton will begin life back in the Championship under new managers with their sights set on an immediate return, and the fixture computer looks to have been kind – at least in the early stages.
The PA news agency has analysed the three divisions’ schedules using an aggregation of leading bookmakers’ odds and identified the most notable runs.
Settling-in period
Leicester boss Enzo Maresca faces Coventry in his first game in charge and, while the Sky Blues reached last season’s play-off final, they are ranked only 11th in the aggregated promotion odds this time around.
Matches against Huddersfield, Cardiff and Rotherham, all ranked in the bottom six, and 16th-ranked Hull follow before they face fellow-relegated side Southampton in game six.
Leeds, who are currently managerless, open up at Elland Road against Cardiff – always a fiery encounter but representing opposition ranked 19th by the bookmakers and fancied to battle against relegation.
Birmingham follow with West Brom the toughest opposition in an opening six games against teams averaging 14.2 in the projected league positions.
Saints, who appointed Russell Martin on Wednesday, have fifth-ranked Norwich as well as the Foxes in their opening six games but also two promoted sides – Sheffield Wednesday, in the season’s opening game on August 4, and Plymouth – as well as QPR.
Leicester will also fancy their chances in the run-in, with relegation-candidates Birmingham, Plymouth and Preston in their last six games. Leeds and Saints have things tougher and meet at Elland Road on the final day.
Fast start vital for Hornets
Watford, also under new management yet again in the form of Valerien Ismael, have the easiest first six opponents on paper, with QPR, Plymouth and Birmingham in the bottom four of the combined odds and Stoke, Blackburn and Coventry also outside the play-off places.
The Hornets have the only harder run-in on paper than Southampton, though, and it stretches to their final eight games, facing Leeds, West Brom, Preston, Ipswich, Southampton, Hull, Sunderland and Middlesbrough.
Martin’s old club Swansea have West Brom and Coventry as the only projected top-half finishers among their first eight, which also include Birmingham, Preston, Bristol City, Cardiff, QPR and Wednesday.
The toughest start on paper belongs to the Sky Blues as they seek to bounce back from their Wembley heartbreak. Mark Robins’ side face Leicester, Middlesbrough, Swansea, Sunderland and Watford before things start to ease up with Hull, Cardiff, Huddersfield and QPR back-to-back.
Their first six are matched for difficulty by QPR’s, with Cardiff the only let-up in a run also featuring Watford, Ipswich, Saints, Boro and Sunderland.
Posh problems?
Promotion-hopefuls Peterborough have the toughest start on paper in League One, with five of their first six opponents projected to finish in the top eight.
Reading, Barnsley and favourites Derby are tipped to finish above fifth-ranked Posh, with Charlton and Portsmouth also in the play-off picture and only Northampton seemingly offering much respite.
Burton and Cheltenham – both among the relegation favourites – face four and five of the projected top eight in their respective first eight games, while Shrewsbury’s first six, by contrast, includes both those teams plus Stevenage, Fleetwood and Carlisle, all ranked in the bottom seven.
Projected strugglers Cambridge and Carlisle have tough run-ins, with the late-season fixtures seeming to favour Cheltenham if they can stay in touch, while Derby have the friendliest run-in on paper of the promotion favourites.
Dragons decider
Three of the last four teams promoted into League Two are the favourites to go up again as this term’s top three, with last season’s risers Wrexham and Notts County sandwiching Stockport.
Intriguingly, the latter visit big-spending Wrexham on the final day with promotion potentially at stake – providing an echo of the Dragons’ National League meeting with Notts County in April when Ben Foster’s last-minute penalty save went a long way to deciding first place.
Crawley, tipped for relegation, have the toughest opening six games in the entire EFL with Bradford, Salford, MK Dons, Gillingham, Swindon and Stockport’s projected league positions averaging out to sixth.
Spare a thought too for Newport, who face projected top-seven finishers Notts County, Gills, MK Dons, Mansfield and Stockport in succession from games 15-19 – and then have to do it all again, in the same order, in games 33-37.
Nottingham Forest 0-2 Manchester City: Haaland back on the goal trail as defending champions march on
Erling Haaland returned from injury to keep Manchester City’s title charge on track as Pep Guardiola’s side secured a 2-0 victory over relegation-battling Nottingham Forest.
Josko Gvardiol’s near-post header was all that separated the two sides at half-time as he fired City in front from a Kevin De Bruyne corner.
Forest were left to rue big opportunities missed in the opening 45 minutes, with Chris Wood and Murillo both having gilt-edged chances to find an equaliser at the City Ground.
But Guardiola, overseeing his 300th Premier League game as City boss, called upon Haaland in the second half, and the Norway international duly delivered to double City’s lead and nudge the reigning champions back to within a point of leaders Arsenal, who beat Tottenham earlier on Sunday.
It was almost a dream opening minute for Forest as Ola Aina’s floated cross to the back post was met by an unmarked Neco Williams, but he failed to connect properly with a close-range shot.
Forest were made to pay when City opened the scoring in the 32nd minute. De Bruyne’s excellent delivery found Gvardiol, who powered a header home at the front post.
Wood should have restored parity shortly after, as he found himself in acres of space when Gonzalo Montiel cut it back on the volley, but the ball got caught up in the striker’s feet with the goal at his mercy.
Forest went agonisingly close again on the stroke of half-time, with Ederson – who was subsequently taken off at the break – fortunate not to concede after he failed to deal with Callum Hudson-Odoi’s corner, but Murillo could not apply the finish a few yards out.
Wood saw another huge chance pass by early in the second half, but his close-range effort was blocked after some excellent work from Anthony Elanga down the left.
De Bruyne showed his creative spark once again as he slotted a throughball behind the Forest defence in the 63rd minute, but Julian Alvarez’s effort from the edge of the area flew into the stands behind the goal.
Matz Sels was called into action moments later, palming behind De Bruyne’s thunderous long-range strike, which was heading for the top-left corner.
But City’s second finally arrived when, in the 71st minute, De Bruyne teed up Haaland, who calmly got the better of his marker, shifted it onto his right foot and slotted into the bottom-left corner to end Forest’s hopes of a comeback.
While City remain hot on Arsenal’s heels, Forest stay just one point above the relegation zone, having lost three of their last four matches.
Guardiola – 300 not out
Sunday marked Guardiola’s 300th Premier League game in charge of Man City, seeing him become the 19th manager to reach this total, and just the fifth to do so for a single club.
Of the 300 games under the Spanish manager’s tutelage, City have won 221, scoring 741 goals in the process, while only conceding 247 times.
City now have a four-point lead over Liverpool, whose title hopes are fading quickly, and an unprecedented fourth straight Premier League crown is certainly on the cards for Guardiola.
Forest’s recurring issues show no sign of abating
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have now conceded 29 first-half goals in 35 league games this season, with only Sheffield United (38) and Burnley (30) having conceded more.
The Tricky Trees – who are one of three teams fighting for 17th place after Everton hauled themselves to safety over the past week – have also conceded 23 goals from set-pieces this term in the competition, at least five more than any other team.
Despite being behind at the break, Forest’s xG of 1.27 was the most by any side in the first half of a game against City this season, in all competitions, with a wastefulness in front of goal another glaring problem that Nuno must fix.
Lyon are through to their 11th Women's Champions League final after sealing a 5-3 aggregate victory over compatriots Paris Saint-Germain.
The record eight-time winners scored three times in the final 10 minutes of last week's first leg to take a narrow 3-2 lead into the return fixture at Parc des Princes.
However, they were quicker out of the blocks in the second leg, with just three minutes on the clock when Selma Bacha drilled home from range for her first Champions League strike in five-and-a-half years.
Tabitha Chawinga responded before the break to reduce PSG's aggregate deficit to a single goal, but Melchie Dumornay put the tie beyond doubt nine minutes from time, as Sonia Bompastor's side set up a final showdown with Barcelona on May 25.
Data debrief
Lyon continued their dominance over PSG in Champions League semi-final encounters, having now progressed from each of their last four such ties.
The eight-time champions lost their first two semi-finals they contested in this competition, but have now won each of the last 10, and will seek a record-extending ninth title in Bilbao next month.
Inter's 'leader' Inzaghi upping the standards, says assistant Farris
Simone Inzaghi has set and maintained high standards at Inter, so says his Nerazzurri assistant Massimiliano Farris.
Inter clinched their 20th Serie A title by beating fierce rivals Milan in Monday's derby.
That meant that Sunday's home meeting with Torino was something of a celebration for Inter and their fans, and the team delivered with a 2-0 victory.
Hakan Calhanoglu scored both of Inter's goals, and Farris, who spoke to the media instead of his boss, piled the praise on Inzaghi.
In quotes reported by Football Italia, Farris told DAZN: "We've tried to build a positive environment. We lost important players [last summer], but we welcomed important players who made themselves loved.
"Going to the pitch and working this season was a pleasure. We had a lot of fun and it's the players' merit.
"We are Inter, we have great value, and we couldn't afford to lose games like we used to. He's our leader, he kept a high bar in difficult moments.
"Today, we are repaid for everything, and we can enjoy more of what happened in the previous two years. In football, defeats [hurt] more than victories, but now we must enjoy this moment."
With victory over Milan, Inzaghi became the second-fastest coach to reach 600 points in Serie A, after Carlo Ancelotti.
Farris added: "Simone already said it in the previous interviews. We’ve been fighting for every target across the last three years. We have won cups, we reached a Champions League final.
"We are aware that in the first season, we missed something that we could have taken home [the title].
"Perhaps it was the price to pay, as staff members, when you get to a club like this, but I think this season's achievements give value to all other trophies.
"Today's atmosphere was incredible, so good. Ninety minutes and more of celebrations and it was fair to start those who have brought the team here. This doesn't mean the others didn't contribute. On the contrary, everyone was helpful, I should name them all. I wouldn't even call them reserves."
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