Jack Grealish could not have imagined he was setting himself up for a fall when he picked on Newcastle United flop Miguel Almiron while celebrating his first Premier League title triumph.
On an individual level, Grealish's debut season at Manchester City had not been a roaring success.
But his six goal involvements in the Premier League dwarfed Almiron's one, giving Grealish the confidence to talk down the Newcastle winger the day after City's dramatic 3-2 title-clinching win against former club Aston Villa.
Misfiring City team-mate Riyad Mahrez needed to be substituted "as soon as possible" in that match, a drunken Grealish said, because he had "played like Almiron".
For his part, Almiron brushed off the barb and wished Grealish well.
Meanwhile, the horrified City winger, having sobered up, sought to apologise to the Paraguay international and acknowledged he deserved "a lot of stick off the Newcastle fans".
Grealish was at least spared slightly in that regard as a minor injury kept him out in August when City visited St James' Park for a match in which Almiron scored his first of 10 goals this season.
Almiron then netted six in October alone, when it seemed he could do no wrong. Only once in his Premier League career has Grealish tallied more than six across an entire season.
But heading into Saturday's reverse fixture between City and Newcastle in Manchester, Grealish is the form man, playing his best football under Pep Guardiola.
Since the World Cup, a period in which fellow left-sided attacker Phil Foden has struggled for fitness, Grealish has two goals and four assists in the league. Including cup competitions, he has a further two assists on top.
Those eight goal involvements in 16 matches (one every 134 minutes) compare to 11 in 55 (one every 343 mins) over the first 16 months of Grealish's City career.
However, his is an upturn that can be explained no more easily than Almiron's.
Following the World Cup, looking at slightly more granular per-90 metrics, Grealish has actually seen a decline in chances created, passes into the box, touches and touches in the box. A very slight boost in expected assists does not account for those improved assist numbers.
Yet as long as Grealish continues to deliver in big games, supplying goals against Manchester United and Arsenal and assists against Chelsea and Arsenal, Guardiola is unlikely to mind.
City at least have alternative options if this run proves unsustainable. They head into Saturday's latest sizeable match on a high – in complete contrast with a stuttering Newcastle and their leading marksman regressing to the mean.
Almiron outperformed his xG by 3.3 across that inexplicable October but has otherwise almost exactly matched his expected figure over the rest of the season.
Worse still for Newcastle, Almiron's team-mates have failed to even do that since the World Cup.
In all competitions, only four Premier League teams have scored fewer goals per game than Newcastle (0.9) over that period, yet the Magpies rank fifth for xG per game (1.8).
Eddie Howe's side should have scored roughly twice as many goals as they have, underperforming their total xG of 25.6 by 12.6. Chelsea's underperformance of 9.4 is next-worst, followed by a distant 6.3 from Everton.
While Newcastle have won only five of 14 matches since the restart, they have come out on top on xG in 11 of those.
Almiron is not the problem, it appears, but another run like that of earlier in the season might be required to set Newcastle back on track.
Instead, confidence is again on Grealish's side, with the England man primed to this time do his talking on the pitch after last May's title party mishap.
Al-Ittihad 0-5 Al-Ettifaq: Ekambi scores hat-trick in five-star display
Karl Toko Ekambi netted a hat-trick as Al-Ettifaq got back to winning ways in style with a 5-0 thrashing of Al-Ittihad in the Saudi Pro League on Friday.
He scored twice in four minutes at the end of the first half to send the visitors into the break 4-0 up before getting his third just 10 minutes after the break.
Seko Fofana had already given Steven Gerrard’s side the lead five minutes into the contest, while Moussa Dembele doubled their advantage from the penalty spot.
Al-Ittihad had the chances, but they could not find the back of the net, as they stayed fifth, but are now just six points above Al-Ettifaq.
Data Debrief: Clinical finishers
Al-Ettifaq had five shots on target against Al-Ittihad, scoring with all of them while creating an xG of 3.62.
With his hat-trick against Al-Ittihad, Ekambi has now scored 11 goals for the season, netting more than once for the first time since joining the club.
Home advantage big help for Newcastle - Howe
Eddie Howe has highlighted Newcastle’s home form as a high point this season as they prepare to welcome Brighton to St James’ Park.
The Magpies moved to sixth in the table after a thumping 4-1 win over Burnley last weekend and have now lost just one of their last seven matches.
At home, Newcastle are unbeaten in their last seven outings, scoring four or more goals in four of those matches.
Asked how he was feeling ahead of their final home match of the season, Howe was full of praise for his team.
He said: "We have loved playing at home this season. I have been really pleased with how we have performed at home.
"We have a good feel, a good energy, and we've been very aggressive in our play. We are thankful for the support we have received from the fans - the crowd have embraced our style. It's been a good partnership between the crowd and the players."
Brighton ended a run of six without a win with their 1-0 win over Aston Villa last Sunday, though that dip in form cost them a place in Europe next season.
While disappointed by that outcome, Roberto De Zerbi wants to use that as motivation for his team to finish the season strongly.
"I think we have to be happy or sad depending on the attitude we showed. I think we have worked well, and we give our best, and then we have to accept the result," De Zerbi said.
"When the new season starts you might have new and different players. You close the last season and start another season. For sure, we start the motivation [now]."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Newcastle United – Anthony Gordon
Gordon has been involved in more home goals than any other Newcastle player in the Premier League this season (16 – nine goals, seven assists). It’s the most by a player at St James’ Park in a single top-flight campaign since Alan Shearer in 2003-04 (18 – 15 goals, three assists).
Brighton – Simon Adingra
With top-scorer Joao Pedro out through injury, Brighton will be looking to Adingra to make something happen. Despite not getting on the scoresheet against Aston Villa last time out, the winger had the joint-most shots (four, all on target), while having the most touches in the opposition box.
MATCH PREDICTION: NEWCASTLE UNITED WIN
Having failed to either win or score in their first four Premier League home games against Brighton (D2 L2), Newcastle have won 2-1 and 4-1 respectively in their last two against the Seagulls at St James’ Park.
Newcastle have scored in all 18 of their Premier League home games so far this season. They last scored in 100 per cent of their home league games in a single campaign in 1982-83, while they last did so in the top-flight in 1958-59.
However, Brighton are looking to complete the league double over Newcastle for the third time, previously doing so in 2020-21 (Premier League) and 1978-79 (second tier).
The Seagulls won 1-0 against Aston Villa last time out, ending a six-game winless run in the Premier League. However, they’ve not won back-to-back league games since a run of three in September.
Newcastle have scored at least four goals in nine different Premier League games this season – only in 1895-96 in the second tier (10) have they done so in more league games in a single campaign.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Newcastle United – 45.1%
Draw – 27.6%
Brighton – 27.3%
Guardiola shrugs off Rodri's Player of the Season snub ahead of Fulham trip
While Pep Guardiola feels Rodri was deserving of a nomination for the Premier League's Player of the Season award, he expects the midfielder to shrug off that rejection and stay focused on the title race.
Rodri was surprisingly omitted from the eight-man shortlist for the league's top individual prize when it was revealed on Thursday, with team-mates Phil Foden and Erling Haaland making the cut.
That is despite the Spaniard playing a key role as City chase an unprecedented fourth straight league title, and three wins from their last three matches will ensure they edge out Arsenal to retain their crown.
Ahead of Saturday's trip to Fulham, where City have a chance to go top of the table before Arsenal face Manchester United on Sunday, Guardiola said there was no doubt over Rodri's importance.
"He has been one of the best. The nominated players deserve it, other players also deserve it. The winner of the trophy will deserve it, and the ones who don't will too," Guardiola said.
"We know what we think of the importance of him, how magnificent and extraordinary he is as a player. He should not be worried about it.
"When I won [Manager of the Season], it's because we won. It's because your team won a title, won games. The award is not for me – I didn't play one minute."
Fulham caused a stir earlier this week when their social media accounts posted a video of some players flying kites during a training session, sparking fears among Arsenal fans that the mid-table side may be 'on the beach'.
Boss Marco Silva, however, insists that is not the case, saying: "They had one moment after training. It's not even a case to be talked about.
"I have been asked, as we say in England, whether the players are going to be on the beach. It's not the case. If my players are a little bit relaxed, I am the first one to put some pressure on them."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Fulham – Rodrigo Muniz
Fulham's recent drop-off in form has coincided with the goals drying up somewhat for Muniz, who will be looking to return to form on Saturday.
He scored eight times in eight Premier League appearances through February and March but has since netted once in his last six – in a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace last time out at Craven Cottage.
Manchester City – Rodri
Rodri has assisted six goals in his last eight Premier League appearances, including two last week against Wolves.
City have not lost any of their last 47 Premier League games in which the Spaniard has featured, the fourth-longest unbeaten run any player has ever recorded in the competition.
MATCH PREDICTION – MANCHESTER CITY WIN
City have won their last 15 meetings with Fulham in all competitions. It is the joint-longest winning run any team has ever managed against another in competitive English football history, with theCitizens also having 15-game sequences against Bournemouth and Watford.
Fulham have only won one of their previous 15 home Premier League games against City (five draws, nine defeats), winning 2-1 under Chris Coleman in November 2005.
They have also gone three home games without victory, drawing with Crystal Palace and losing to Newcastle United and Liverpool in what represents their worst run on home soil this season.
With City unbeaten in their last 20 Premier League games (16 wins, four draws), it's difficult to see a surprise taking place on Saturday.
Guardiola's champions have been truly rampant in recent weeks, winning their last six league games while netting four or more goals in five of them – against Aston Villa (4-1), Palace (4-2), Luton Town (5-1), Brighton and Hove Albion (4-0) and Wolves (5-1).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Fulham – 15%
Manchester City – 61.7%
Draw – 23.3%
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