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• Premier League predictions: Man City big favourites against Liverpool, Arsenal to maintain title charge

  Premier League leaders Arsenal went into the international break with an eight-point advantage, and the Gunners will be hoping for a favour from Liverpool on Saturday.

  Before Arsenal host strugglers Leeds United, Liverpool travel to the Etihad Stadium to face second-placed Manchester City.

  Pep Guardiola's side have a game in hand on Arsenal, but surely they must beat the Reds to give themselves a realistic chance of retaining the title.

  Elsewhere, there are more huge fixtures at the bottom of the table, including West Ham v Southampton, while Newcastle United and Manchester United play in a repeat of February's EFL Cup final.

   

  Manchester City v Liverpool

  Liverpool, who won the reverse league fixture 1-0, are looking to complete the league double over City for what would be just a second time in the last 17 seasons, previously doing so in Jurgen Klopp's debut campaign in 2015-16.

  Mohamed Salah has scored in all three of Liverpool's games against Man City this season, in the Premier League, Community Shield and EFL Cup. The last Liverpool player to score in four different games against an opponent in a single campaign was Ian Rush, netting in five meetings with Everton in 1986-87.

  Erling Haaland has scored 42 goals in all competitions for City this season, including six hat-tricks (all at the Etihad). Only two players have scored more in a single campaign for a Premier League club (since 1992-93) – Ruud van Nistelrooy in 2002-03 and Salah in 2017-18 (both 44).

  Best bet – City to avoid defeat:  City have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League home games against Liverpool (W7 D5), going down 4-1 in November 2015 under Manuel Pellegrini. Guardiola's team have won their last three top-flight games, but have yet to win four in a row this season. 

  Long shot – Liverpool to win:  Liverpool have won more Premier League games against reigning champions than any other side (23). They are aiming to achieve their first such double since 2013-14, beating Manchester United 1-0 at home and 3-0 away. However, they have taken just 12 points from their 13 Premier League away games this season (W3 D3 L7), compared to 30 at home.

  Opta prediction: Despite the fierce rivalry over recent years, City are the big favourites for this game, with Opta's supercomputer ranking their chances of victory at 50.9 per cent. The draw is at 26.4 per cent, with Liverpool handed a 22.7 per cent chance of success.

  Arsenal v Leeds United

  Leeds have won just two of their 23 Premier League games against the league leaders (D9 L12), though both victories came away from home (v Middlesbrough in August 2000 and Man City in April 2021). They have lost all four such games against Arsenal by an aggregate score of 14-2.

  Arsenal have won their last six Premier League games, their joint-longest such run under Mikel Arteta. They last won seven in a row between August and October 2018 under Unai Emery.

  Arsenal’s top scorer in the Premier League this season is Gabriel Martinelli with 13 goals. The last player to score more while aged 21 or under in a single campaign in the division was Dele Alli in 2016-17 (18).

  Best bet – Bukayo Saka to score or assist: Only Erling Haaland (33) and Harry Kane (23) have been involved in more Premier League goals than Saka this season (22), with the winger the only player so far to reach double figures for both goals (12) and assists (10).

  Long shot – Leeds to keep a clean sheet: Since a 0-0 draw in their first Premier League away game against Arsenal in February 1993, Leeds have not drawn or kept a clean sheet in any of their subsequent 13 league visits to the Gunners (W3 L10), shipping 31 goals in total.

  Opta prediction: Opta do not give Leeds much chance at Emirates Stadium (15.5 per cent). Arsenal are huge favourites, with a 61.6 per cent win probability, while the draw is ranked at 22.9 per cent.

  West Ham v Southampton

  Coming into this weekend's games, Southampton have picked up the highest share of their Premier League points this season away from home (57 per cent - 13/23). Meanwhile, only Nottingham Forest (77 per cent) have a higher share of points won at home in 2022-23 than West Ham (75 per cent - 18/24).

  Southampton have picked up as many points in their six Premier League games under Ruben Selles (8 – W2 D2 L2) as they had in their 17 league matches beforehand (W2 D2 L13).

  Sides starting the day bottom of the Premier League have won 11 league matches this season, four more than the whole of last term (seven), and the most in a single campaign in the competition since 2017-18 (12). Southampton have been responsible for three of those victories by bottom-placed sides in 2022-23, a joint-high (also Leicester).

  Best bet – James Ward-Prowse to create two chances:  Coming into this weekend's games, only Kieran Trippier (49) has created more chances from set plays than Ward-Prowse (35) in the Premier League this season, while the Southampton captain is the only player to create 25+ chances from both open play (27) and set pieces (35) in the division this term.

  Long shot – A goalless draw: No other sides have kept fewer clean sheets in the Premier League this season than Southampton (four) and West Ham (five)

  Opta prediction: Despite both of these teams struggling, it is West Ham who Opta give 51.4 per cent chance of claiming all the points. Southampton have been responsible for three of the seven victories by the bottom-placed side this season, but the likelihood of them succeeding this time stands at 21.7 per cent. 

  Newcastle United v Manchester United

  Following their goalless draw at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture, Newcastle are looking to keep a clean sheet in consecutive Premier League games against United for the first time since May 1997.

  No player has scored more winning goals in the Premier League this season than Marcus Rashford, with nine of his 14 strikes being the winner. Only two United players have ever scored more winning goals in a single campaign in the competition – Cristiano Ronaldo (12 in 2007-08) and Wayne Rooney (10 in 2009-10).

  Coming into this weekend's fixtures, only Bournemouth (38), Nottingham Forest (32) and Leicester (30) have conceded more away goals in the Premier League this season than United (27). Indeed, only in four different Premier League campaigns have the Red Devils conceded more on the road – 1999-00 (29), 2001-02 (28), 2018-19 (29) and 2021-22 (35).

  Best bet – United to win: United have won more Premier League away games against Newcastle than any other side (14). However, they have lost two of their last five such visits (W2 D1), having lost just one of their previous 13 at St James' Park. Newcastle are winless in six Premier League games against Man Utd (D2 L4), though the last two have both been drawn.

  Long shot – Rashford and Alexander Isak to score: Rashford has been involved in seven goals in his eight Premier League starts against Newcastle (four goals, three assists) – only against Arsenal and Leicester City (nine each) has he been involved in more. Isak, meanwhile, has scored six goals in 10 Premier League appearances for Newcastle this season, including three in his last two. 

  Opta prediction: This could prove a big game in the top-four race, with Newcastle only three points behind third-placed United. The visitors are made very slight favourites (36.8 per cent to 34.2 per cent). The draw is given a 29 per cent chance.

• Robertson warns Liverpool cannot make any more mistakes in top-four pursuit

  Andrew Robertson warned Liverpool team-mates they cannot afford to make any more mistakes if they are to meet their minimum expectation of Champions League qualification.

  The Reds have endured a disappointing season, with Jurgen Klopp's efforts not helped by a string of significant injuries to key players.

  Last season, Liverpool won an EFL Cup and FA Cup double, reached the Champions League final, and finished just one point behind Premier League winners Manchester City.

  However, this term has seen them fail to defend either cup crown, they were eliminated from the Champions League at the last-16 stage, and are facing an uphill battle to finish in the top four domestically.

  Sixth-placed Liverpool are seven points behind Tottenham in fourth, and although the Reds have two games in hand on Spurs, so do Newcastle United, who only trail the north Londoners by a single point.

  The underwhelming nature of Liverpool's campaign is not lost on Robertson, who thinks they are on their last life if they want to pip Spurs and Newcastle – they now face consecutive games against City, Chelsea and Arsenal.

  "The motivations are the exact same," he told reporters ahead of Saturday's trip to City. "We want Champions League football, and so the motivation is the exact same as though we were going for trophies.

  "It is obviously a big week; we are playing against three big teams and it's going to be an intense week, but it's what you look forward to when you come to this club. These are the big games you want to be involved in.

  "We don't want to be in this position, and…we don't really have time to waste, we don't have any mistakes left in us if we want to achieve top four."

  He added: "[Expectations] have to be on the highest level when you play at this club – you don't get an option not to do that, the people around the club demand that. I think we do that, but we have just lacked a little bit of consistency this season.

  "In the last five or six years, consistency is the one word that would be put next to our name, as we always showed up and even when not at our best, we still managed to grind out results. We haven’t done that this season, and we have to fix that."

  Despite their issues this season, Robertson remains adamant Liverpool belong in the Champions League.

  But he accepts the Reds cannot take qualification for granted.

  "Going into April, not being in the Champions League, FA Cup or League Cup, and then not being in a title race is so disappointing – it's a position we don't want to be in.

  "We are out of every competition, but we still believe we are a team that can compete in every competition.

  "So to fix that, we have to be in these tournaments again next season, and the only way to do that is finishing in the top four.

  "So we've got 12 games to fix it, and we are determined to put our all into those next 12 games."

• Chelsea beat Lyon in dramatic penalty shoot-out, Wolfsburg fend off PSG to reach semi-finals

  Chelsea sealed a dramatic penalty shoot-out win over Lyon to reach the semi-finals of the Women's Champions League, having rescued the tie through Maren Mjelde's last-gasp spot-kick in extra-time.

  Despite winning last week's first leg 1-0, Chelsea appeared destined for an exit when Sara Dabritz drilled into the bottom-right corner in extra time after Venessa Gilles' flick had levelled the tie.

  However, a trip on Lauren James gave Mjelde the chance to keep the game alive at the last, and the Norwegian made no mistake eight minutes into stoppage time, taking the contest to a shoot-out.

  James and Wendie Renard both saw their kicks saved before Jess Carter converted, meaning Lyon's Lindsey Horan had to score to keep the holders in the competition.

  Chelsea's Ann-Katrin Berger got down to her right to palm Horan's weak kick away, ensuring the Blues teed up an enticing semi-final tie against Barcelona – who beat Emma Hayes' team 4-0 in the 2021 final.

  Earlier on Thursday, two-time champions Wolfsburg clinched a 1-1 draw at home to Paris Saint-Germain, recording a 2-1 aggregate success to set up a semi-final tie with Arsenal.

  Having taken a first-leg lead through Dominique Janssen's penalty in the French capital last week, Wolfsburg found themselves with a two-goal cushion when Alexandra Popp fired home from outside the area 20 minutes in.

  That strike came somewhat against the run of play after Kadidiatou Diani had an effort chalked off for offside, but there was no denying the forward when she nodded in on the half-hour mark.

  Wolfsburg improved after the break and missed several chances to make the tie safe, but it was of little consequence as PSG failed to find a crucial second goal.