The Numbers Game: Rampant Rashford and hungry Man Utd seeking more home comforts in quest for silverware

By Sports Desk January 27, 2023

Manchester United look great value to end their six-year wait for silverware in Erik ten Hag's first season in charge at Old Trafford.

In the words of the Dutchman himself, that is far too long a wait for a club of United's stature to go between trophies.

United fans have not had a huge amount to cheer since their 2016-17 EFL Cup triumph, but that could soon be about to change.

The Red Devils remain in top-four contention in the Premier League, are as good as in the EFL Cup final and are also still in the hunt to win the Europa League and FA Cup.

After seeing off Everton 3-1 in round three of the latter, United now have a meeting with second-tier Reading – managed by ex-Red Devil Paul Ince – for a place in the last 16.

Ahead of Saturday's contest at Old Trafford, Stats Perform picks out some of the standout Opta numbers.


We meet again

You'd be right in thinking this fixture has a sense of familiarity about it, with this the 11th time the two sides have been paired in the FA Cup.

That will make this the joint-ninth most-played fixture in the competition's history since 1912, with Arsenal versus Chelsea and Everton against Liverpool (15) top of that list.

United have advanced from nine of those previous 10 ties, the only exception being a 2-1 loss when the sides met in a second replay in the third-round stage in 1926-27.

Among FA Cup ties to have been played at least six times, only five teams can better United's 90-per-cent win rate against a single opponent in the competition.
 

A one-sided affair

The one-sided nature of this fixture is not reserved exclusively for the FA Cup, either.

Reading have won just one of their 22 games against United when taking all competitions into account and have lost six in a row.

Indeed, you have to go back to that cup tie 96 years ago for the last time the Royals came out on top against United, with that match staged at Villa Park.

Across United's six-match winning run against Reading, they have racked up 15 goals and kept three clean sheets in a row.
 

Right Royal misery

Reading know they will have to pull off a big upset if they are to advance, but their record against Premier League sides suggests that will not be happening this weekend.

They have lost seven of their past eight FA Cup matches against Premier League opposition, with their 3-1 win over West Brom in February 2016 the outlier in that sequence.

United are rightly considered huge favourites for this match, then, not least because they have lost only one of their past 39 home games against teams from outside the top tier.

Ten Hag's side are unbeaten in 14 matches at Old Trafford in the FA Cup against any opponent in a run stretching back to a 2-1 loss to Arsenal in 2015.
 

Europe's hottest player

It doesn't help matters that Reading have endured an inconsistent campaign in the Championship, whereas United have – a few games aside – impressed in the top flight.

Ten Hag deserves huge praise for his early work at United, which includes getting far more out of Marcus Rashford in an attacking sense.

The England international has scored 10 goals in 10 games since the World Cup – a tally no other player across Europe's top five leagues can match.

Rashford netted a late penalty in the previous round and has now been involved in five goals in his past five FA Cup appearances, scoring two and assisting three more.

That could spell bad news for Reading, against whom Rashford scored his only previous brace in the competition in a 4-0 third-round victory in January 2017.

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  • McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United

    Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.

    United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.

    While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.

    That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.

    McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.

    "Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.

    "It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."

    Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.

    Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off. 

    "I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea. 
     
    "You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that. 
     
    "We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Ipswich Town - Liam Delap

    Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.

    That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).

    Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho

    Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).

    The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).

    MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN

    Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.

    The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.

    United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.

    The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.

    However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Ipswich Town - 22.2%

    Draw - 23%

    Manchester United - 54.8%

  • Amorim told Europa League qualification is 'mandatory' in first Man Utd season Amorim told Europa League qualification is 'mandatory' in first Man Utd season

    Ruben Amorim must at least guide Manchester United back into the Europa League in his first season as the club's manager.

    That is the view of ex-Manchester City defender Danny Mills, whose former side were beaten 4-1 by Amorim and Sporting CP in the Champions League earlier this month.

    Amorim has been hired by Man Utd to replace Erik ten Hag after the Dutchman was sacked midway through his third season in charge at Old Trafford.

    Having taken charge of his final games in Lisbon, a spell which included that famous continental win over Man City, Amorim started his work at United during the international break.

    His first game at the helm comes this Sunday away at Ipswich Town and while Mills acknowledges the task of rebuilding United's team is a long-term project, he feels there is still a certain level of results Amorim needs to hit in the 2024-25 season.

    "Amorim needs to figure out which players fit his mould and buy into his project," former England international Mills said to Stats Perform.

    "That will take six months or so. Then he will need to move some players out and bring new ones in. 

    "This season, though, they still need success. European football – Europa League – is probably mandatory. They must avoid the Conference League. 

    "Without being disrespectful, third-tier European football isn’t good enough for Manchester United, so it has to be the Europa League or Champions League. 

    "The Europa League is very achievable and not making it would be a huge disappointment. 

    "There are still good players at the club and they have still got to aim for the Champions League, but [getting into the top four] will take good coaching, a big turnaround, and maybe a bit of luck."

     

    Amorim is the seventh different manager to take charge of the club since Alex Ferguson's retirement in 2013. 

    The 39-year-old won three Portuguese league titles with Benfica as a player while he left Sporting as head coach after guiding them to two league titles and two Taca da Liga trophies.

    Sporting also started this season by winning all 11 league games under Amorim before his departure.

    "The appointment of Ruben Amorim is a good one," added Mills. "You have to look at the people involved [in the appointment] as well.

    "Dan Ashworth hasn’t made too many wrong decisions as a sporting or technical director. Throughout his career, at West Brom, England, Brighton, and Newcastle, his recruitment has been very good. 

    "Jason Wilcox, who sits under him, did incredibly well at Manchester City. He identified many young players who, if they didn’t become stars at City, went on to become stars elsewhere.

    "Recruitment will be handled well in terms of managers, coaches, and players, but that takes time and it’s going to take at least two or three transfer windows. 

    "I like that Amorim came in and said, ‘Right, that’s it. A new start’. He has moved away from the Ferguson era that people keep harping on about.

    "Ten-plus years ago, we knew how good Manchester United were, but football moves on. Liverpool went through a similar phase after their success in the 1980s."

     

    Amorim takes over at United with the club 13th in the Premier League with 15 points from 11 matches and having collected just one win from four matches in the Europa League. 

    Mills believes there is plenty for United fans to like about the new boss' approach on and off the pitch.

    "Football has evolved faster in the last 10 years than ever before and Amorim deals with the press well," he said.

    "When Sporting beat Manchester City, he admitted they played well but got a bit lucky. People appreciate that honesty. 

    "Fans and pundits are more knowledgeable now than ever before, thanks to the amount of football they consume and the opinions they hear, especially on social media."

     

    After facing Ipswich, Amorim's first two home games will see Man Utd take on Bodo/Glimt in the Europa League and Everton in the Premier League.

    He will then take the Red Devils to the Emirates Stadium for a huge clash against Arsenal on 4 December.

    United reached this season's Europa League by winning the FA Cup under Ten Hag and they have that potential path again this season, while they are also still in the EFL Cup, a competition in which they will play Tottenham in the quarter-finals.

    Winning the Europa League itself, meanwhile, would mean qualification to the Champions League.

    But while there are multiple routes open to Amorim in his bid to secure a continental spot, the Opta supercomputer does not like his chances of doing that through United's league placing.

    After their poor start to the season, United have just a 13.2% chance of finishing in the top six, and a 33.1% shot at reaching the top eight.

    As things stand, they are most likely to finish between ninth and 11th, meaning they are on track for their worst-ever Premier League finish unless Amorim can lead a rapid revival.

  • Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills

    Arne Slot deserves praise for not being "arrogant" with his approach to succeeding Jurgen Klopp as Liverpool boss, according to Danny Mills.

    The Dutchman has made a hugely positive start to life at Anfield since replacing long-serving Klopp ahead of the 2024-25 season.

    The 28 points Slot has collected is the joint-most of any manager in their opening 11 Premier League games along with Guus Hiddink at Chelsea.

    Liverpool's only blemish on an otherwise perfect start to the top-flight campaign was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September.

    Indeed, only in 2019-20 (31 points) have Liverpool collected more points after 11 games of a Premier League season than their 28 this campaign.

    Former Leeds United and Manchester City defender Mills has been particularly impressed by Slot's approach to a new era at Anfield.

    "Arne Slot has surprised me," Mills told Stats Perform. "They did have a difficult defeat against Nottingham Forest at home. That was a defeat not many people saw that coming, but the start he's had is unbelievable. It's incredible.

    "Training might be slightly different, but the style of play is very similar. The players are comfortable with it. They've been high-energy, closing people down, and playing at 100 miles an hour when they win the ball back.

    "It shows managerial intelligence to understand the players' qualities and build on what they had when they were successful. He hasn't overthought it or tinkered too much. 

    "He hasn’t been arrogant and said, 'I'm going to rip it up and start fresh'. It wasn't broken; it was already successful. He's just added to it."

    Liverpool won a first ever Premier League title during Klopp's eight-and-a-half years in charge, as well the Champions League in 2018-19.

    Klopp also lifted the FA Cup, two EFL Cups, the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup, setting a high benchmark to follow.

    "Liverpool identified the man they wanted, brought him in, and he's been very clever," Mills added. "He looked at the squad and thought, 'these are good players. I don't need to change too much'. 

    "That's smart because Liverpool were very successful under Klopp. If you come in and rip up the playbook and it doesn't work, players will question why they're not doing what worked under Klopp."

    Liverpool have conceded just six goals in the Premier League this season – four fewer than next-best Nottingham Forest.

    They are conceding at a rate of around 0.5 goals per game, compared to around 1.1 in Klopp's final season in charge (41 goals in 38 matches).

    "Slot has tweaked things slightly, maybe made them more defensively solid, which they needed to really challenge," Mills said. "Championship-winning or Champions League-winning teams are built on solid defences. 

    "You don't win without that. He's shored up the defence and allowed the players to continue doing what they were doing before."

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