The Numbers Game: Rampant Rashford and hungry Man Utd seeking more home comforts in quest for silverware

By Sports Desk January 27, 2023

Manchester United look great value to end their six-year wait for silverware in Erik ten Hag's first season in charge at Old Trafford.

In the words of the Dutchman himself, that is far too long a wait for a club of United's stature to go between trophies.

United fans have not had a huge amount to cheer since their 2016-17 EFL Cup triumph, but that could soon be about to change.

The Red Devils remain in top-four contention in the Premier League, are as good as in the EFL Cup final and are also still in the hunt to win the Europa League and FA Cup.

After seeing off Everton 3-1 in round three of the latter, United now have a meeting with second-tier Reading – managed by ex-Red Devil Paul Ince – for a place in the last 16.

Ahead of Saturday's contest at Old Trafford, Stats Perform picks out some of the standout Opta numbers.


We meet again

You'd be right in thinking this fixture has a sense of familiarity about it, with this the 11th time the two sides have been paired in the FA Cup.

That will make this the joint-ninth most-played fixture in the competition's history since 1912, with Arsenal versus Chelsea and Everton against Liverpool (15) top of that list.

United have advanced from nine of those previous 10 ties, the only exception being a 2-1 loss when the sides met in a second replay in the third-round stage in 1926-27.

Among FA Cup ties to have been played at least six times, only five teams can better United's 90-per-cent win rate against a single opponent in the competition.
 

A one-sided affair

The one-sided nature of this fixture is not reserved exclusively for the FA Cup, either.

Reading have won just one of their 22 games against United when taking all competitions into account and have lost six in a row.

Indeed, you have to go back to that cup tie 96 years ago for the last time the Royals came out on top against United, with that match staged at Villa Park.

Across United's six-match winning run against Reading, they have racked up 15 goals and kept three clean sheets in a row.
 

Right Royal misery

Reading know they will have to pull off a big upset if they are to advance, but their record against Premier League sides suggests that will not be happening this weekend.

They have lost seven of their past eight FA Cup matches against Premier League opposition, with their 3-1 win over West Brom in February 2016 the outlier in that sequence.

United are rightly considered huge favourites for this match, then, not least because they have lost only one of their past 39 home games against teams from outside the top tier.

Ten Hag's side are unbeaten in 14 matches at Old Trafford in the FA Cup against any opponent in a run stretching back to a 2-1 loss to Arsenal in 2015.
 

Europe's hottest player

It doesn't help matters that Reading have endured an inconsistent campaign in the Championship, whereas United have – a few games aside – impressed in the top flight.

Ten Hag deserves huge praise for his early work at United, which includes getting far more out of Marcus Rashford in an attacking sense.

The England international has scored 10 goals in 10 games since the World Cup – a tally no other player across Europe's top five leagues can match.

Rashford netted a late penalty in the previous round and has now been involved in five goals in his past five FA Cup appearances, scoring two and assisting three more.

That could spell bad news for Reading, against whom Rashford scored his only previous brace in the competition in a 4-0 third-round victory in January 2017.

Related items

  • 'Incredible' Amad the difference for Man Utd in PAOK win, says Van Nistelrooy 'Incredible' Amad the difference for Man Utd in PAOK win, says Van Nistelrooy

    Ruud van Nistelrooy described Amad Diallo's attitude as "incredible" after he was rewarded for his patience with a match-winning double in Manchester United's 2-0 Europa League win over PAOK.

    The winger had not started a game for the Red Devils since October 3 but made the most of his opportunity by scoring twice in the second half following an insipid opening 45 from the hosts at Old Trafford.

    Amad's double was his first Red Devils brace, while five of his six goals in all competitions for United have come at Old Trafford. 

    Interim boss Van Nistelrooy, who has one more game in charge before handing over to Ruben Amorim after the international break, was full of praise for Amad, who also scored his first Europa League strikes since March 2021.

    Speaking to TNT Sports, he said: "I think Amad made a difference for us today obviously, because of his goals, but he was sharp.

    "I think in the first half he was also one of the few who was at his level. So well done to him, good game.

    "He's been incredible (in training) actually, every time he was never affected by not playing, always training, always staying on the pitch, always saying 'Ruud let's do more'."

    Amad's second goal was particularly brilliant as he won the ball back deep in PAOK territory, drove forward, and bent a lovely 20-yard effort into the left-hand side of the goal, albeit with a slight aid of a deflection.

    Van Nistelrooy added: "He made his own goal. Coming inside with the left, getting inside the far post was excellent.

    "But I think this is what made the goal, he won his own duel and then took the shot for the goal."

    Diallo's impressive display saw him register more shots on target (three) and touches in the opposition box (10) than any other player on the pitch. 

    He also completed the most successful dribbles (two), while also competing in 16 duels during the contest, the joint-highest for the Red Devils along with Victor Lindelof.

    Diallo himself praised the work Van Nistelrooy has done since returning to Old Trafford as part of the backroom staff under previous manager Erik ten Hag in the summer. 

    "Since he arrived at Manchester United he has been very important for everyone," he said. 

    Prior to their victory over the Greek side, United were winless in six consecutive European matches (D4, L2), matching their worst stretch since 1980 to 1983.

    It means they have still never gone seven without a win in European fixtures, though Diallo believed their triumph against PAOK was just as important as getting his season up and running. 

    "It's been a long time since we won in Europe. Today we showed why we are one of the best teams. It was important to win today.

    "It is important to score every time. This season I have been unlucky, so I am happy to score two today. But the most important thing was to win.

    "I like to celebrate with the fans and make people happy."

  • Manchester United 2-0 PAOK: Brilliant Amad earns hosts first Europa League win Manchester United 2-0 PAOK: Brilliant Amad earns hosts first Europa League win

    Amad Diallo scored twice as Manchester United finally earned a maiden victory in the Europa League this season with a 2-0 triumph over PAOK.

    The Red Devils drew their opening three matches of the league phase but the excellent Amad netted twice in the second half after a fine individual display at Old Trafford.

    The winger was unfortunate not to have a first-half penalty after a trip from Abdul Baba, while his deep cross for Rasmus Hojlund was headed straight at the goalkeeper from close range.

    Andre Onana then tipped Mady Camama's dipping half-volley over shortly before the break but Amad broke the deadlock when he brilliantly looped his header over Dominik Kotarski from Bruno Fernandes' delivery.

    Andrija Zivkovic almost responded immediately before Alejandro Garnacho had strong shouts for another spot-kick from Jonny Otto's challenge waved away before Amad tested Kotarski one-on-one.

    United had a huge let off when Tarik Tissoudali was left unmarked in the area and woefully straight at Onana, but Amad settled any nerves with a brilliant bending 20-yard effort into the left-hand side of the goal with 13 minutes remaining.

    Data Debrief: No Greek tragedy as Amad ensures there's no unlucky number seven

    Prior to their victory over the Greek side, United were winless in six consecutive European matches (D4, L2), matching their worst stretch since 1980 to 1983. It means they have still never gone seven without a win in European fixtures.

    Moreover, it maintains a formidable home record against Greek opposition for United, who have now won seven straight matches on their own turf against teams from Greece at an aggregate score of 22-1.

    Amad was, of course, influential in the victory and his opening goal marked his first in the Europa League since netting against Milan on March 11, 2021.

    It marked his first ever brace for United, while five of his goals across all competitions for the club have now come at Old Trafford.

  • The Numbers Game: Can Chelsea dent title hopes of misfiring Gunners? The Numbers Game: Can Chelsea dent title hopes of misfiring Gunners?

    Ten matches into the Premier League season, Arsenal's hopes of ending their long wait for a league title are already in danger.

    Last week's 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United made it just seven points from five games, and they now trail leaders Liverpool by seven points.

    Injuries and suspensions have taken their toll on Arteta's men, and things do not get much easier for them on Sunday, against a Chelsea team currently above them on goal difference.

    Enzo Maresca's Blues fought back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United last time out, and only Manchester City and Liverpool have beaten them since the Italian took over.

    We delve into the Opta data to preview Sunday's headline fixture at Stamford Bridge.

    What's expected?

    Given the two sides are only separated on goal difference ahead of Sunday's match, the Opta supercomputer finds it difficult to split. 

    Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Arsenal were victorious in 41.2%, giving them a slight edge over their hosts, who are a 33.2% shot.

    The likelihood of a draw is rated at 25.6%, but you sense Arsenal need to take all three points after seeing their hopes of winning the title drop to 4.4% in Opta's season predictions. Chelsea's own hopes are rated at 0.3%, with City (61.9%) still clear favourites ahead of Liverpool (33.4%).

     

    Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (two draws, six defeats), a 2-0 away win in August 2021. The Gunners have managed three victories in their last four league trips to Stamford Bridge (one draw) – as many victories as they recorded in their previous 20 visits (seven draws, 10 defeats).

    Arsenal have also won their last six Premier League London derby matches by an aggregate score of 22-3, winning six of those matches by five or more goals.

    One such occasion was a 5-0 rout of Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium last April, their biggest-ever margin of victory against the Blues in all competitions.

    Blues eye statement victory

    When the Premier League fixture list was drawn up, even the most optimistic Chelsea fan may have struggled to visualise the Blues sitting ahead of Arsenal in the table after 10 games.

    But Maresca's side have shown promising signs in the early stages of his tenure. Chelsea's last two Premier League defeats this season have come against last season's top three teams – 0-5 versus Arsenal in April, 0-2 versus City in August and 1-2 against Liverpool in October.

    They are unbeaten in their last 21 matches against all other teams, winning 14 and drawing seven while scoring 57 goals in total across those games.

    The future looks bright for Chelsea, who fielded a starting lineup with an average age of 23 years and 96 days at Old Trafford last week – their youngest-ever XI for a Premier League match against Manchester United.

    However, they are still waiting on a first statement win under Maresca, and getting one over on the Gunners would earn him plenty of goodwill among the fans.

    Their chances could be decided by the fitness of Cole Palmer, who is an injury doubt after suffering a knock against United.

     

    He opened the scoring when the Blues last welcomed Arsenal to west London for a 2-2 draw last October, scoring his first Premier League goal at Stamford Bridge.

    Since then, he has more home goals in the competition than any other player (21), also leading the way for goal involvements (12 – seven goals, five assists, alongside Mohamed Salah) and open-play chances created in 2024-25.

    Can fit-again Odegaard get Gunners firing?

    Last season, Arsenal won 42 of their 89 Premier League points on their travels, taking nine points from five matches at the homes of their Big Six rivals. 

    This campaign, however, their failure to hit top form on the road has threatened to end their latest title tilt before it truly got going. 

    Arsenal have collected seven points from five away matches this term, the same amount as Brighton and fewer than Liverpool (13), Nottingham Forest (11), Chelsea, City and Aston Villa (all 10).

    While Arteta has long preached the importance of control, Arsenal have simply not been good enough going forward in those matches. They have attempted just 37 shots on the road in the Premier League this season (7.4 per game), with only Brentford (seven) averaging fewer per away match across the entire division.

     

    The fact Arsenal played significant amounts of time at Manchester City and Bournemouth with a numerical disadvantage likely plays a part, but the fact five teams have attempted at least twice as many shots on the road does not make for good reading (Manchester City 90, Tottenham 83, Crystal Palace 79, Bournemouth 78 and Manchester United 74).

    Martin Odegaard's return to training after two months out with an ankle injury is a major boost, with the Norwegian having led all players in the Premier League for expected assists (11.17 xA) and chances created from open play (88) last season.

    Arsenal have actually outperformed their underlying attacking metrics this campaign, netting 17 league goals from 15.75 expected goals (xG), so their finishing does not appear to be an issue. The fact they rank eighth in the league for xG does, however, suggest chance creation is a problem.

    Arteta will hope Odegaard's return can make the difference, or a title challenge may prove a bridge too far. The last time they lost three successive away Premier League games was in December 2021, and they went on to miss out on a top-four finish that season.

    The Norwegian was a late substitute as they were beaten 1-0 by Inter in the Champions League on Wednesday. They have now lost three of their last six games in all competitions, as many as their previous 32 beforehand.

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Chelsea – Nicolas Jackson 

    Since the start of last season, Chelsea striker Jackson has been involved in more London derby goals than any other player in the Premier League (10 goals, two assists).

    All of his 12 involvements have come in his last nine such appearances, and he already has six Premier League goals this term.

     

    Arsenal – Bukayo Saka 

    Saka has provided more assists than any other player in the Premier League this season (seven). 

    He has also either scored (once) or assisted (twice) a goal in each of his last three away games against Chelsea in the Premier League, with Sergio Aguero (2013 to 2017) and Javier Hernandez (2012 to 2018) the only visiting players to do so in four consecutive appearances.

© 2024 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.