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• Premier League predictions: Man City big favourites against Liverpool, Arsenal to maintain title charge

  Premier League leaders Arsenal went into the international break with an eight-point advantage, and the Gunners will be hoping for a favour from Liverpool on Saturday.

  Before Arsenal host strugglers Leeds United, Liverpool travel to the Etihad Stadium to face second-placed Manchester City.

  Pep Guardiola's side have a game in hand on Arsenal, but surely they must beat the Reds to give themselves a realistic chance of retaining the title.

  Elsewhere, there are more huge fixtures at the bottom of the table, including West Ham v Southampton, while Newcastle United and Manchester United play in a repeat of February's EFL Cup final.

   

  Manchester City v Liverpool

  Liverpool, who won the reverse league fixture 1-0, are looking to complete the league double over City for what would be just a second time in the last 17 seasons, previously doing so in Jurgen Klopp's debut campaign in 2015-16.

  Mohamed Salah has scored in all three of Liverpool's games against Man City this season, in the Premier League, Community Shield and EFL Cup. The last Liverpool player to score in four different games against an opponent in a single campaign was Ian Rush, netting in five meetings with Everton in 1986-87.

  Erling Haaland has scored 42 goals in all competitions for City this season, including six hat-tricks (all at the Etihad). Only two players have scored more in a single campaign for a Premier League club (since 1992-93) – Ruud van Nistelrooy in 2002-03 and Salah in 2017-18 (both 44).

  Best bet – City to avoid defeat:  City have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League home games against Liverpool (W7 D5), going down 4-1 in November 2015 under Manuel Pellegrini. Guardiola's team have won their last three top-flight games, but have yet to win four in a row this season. 

  Long shot – Liverpool to win:  Liverpool have won more Premier League games against reigning champions than any other side (23). They are aiming to achieve their first such double since 2013-14, beating Manchester United 1-0 at home and 3-0 away. However, they have taken just 12 points from their 13 Premier League away games this season (W3 D3 L7), compared to 30 at home.

  Opta prediction: Despite the fierce rivalry over recent years, City are the big favourites for this game, with Opta's supercomputer ranking their chances of victory at 50.9 per cent. The draw is at 26.4 per cent, with Liverpool handed a 22.7 per cent chance of success.

  Arsenal v Leeds United

  Leeds have won just two of their 23 Premier League games against the league leaders (D9 L12), though both victories came away from home (v Middlesbrough in August 2000 and Man City in April 2021). They have lost all four such games against Arsenal by an aggregate score of 14-2.

  Arsenal have won their last six Premier League games, their joint-longest such run under Mikel Arteta. They last won seven in a row between August and October 2018 under Unai Emery.

  Arsenal’s top scorer in the Premier League this season is Gabriel Martinelli with 13 goals. The last player to score more while aged 21 or under in a single campaign in the division was Dele Alli in 2016-17 (18).

  Best bet – Bukayo Saka to score or assist: Only Erling Haaland (33) and Harry Kane (23) have been involved in more Premier League goals than Saka this season (22), with the winger the only player so far to reach double figures for both goals (12) and assists (10).

  Long shot – Leeds to keep a clean sheet: Since a 0-0 draw in their first Premier League away game against Arsenal in February 1993, Leeds have not drawn or kept a clean sheet in any of their subsequent 13 league visits to the Gunners (W3 L10), shipping 31 goals in total.

  Opta prediction: Opta do not give Leeds much chance at Emirates Stadium (15.5 per cent). Arsenal are huge favourites, with a 61.6 per cent win probability, while the draw is ranked at 22.9 per cent.

  West Ham v Southampton

  Coming into this weekend's games, Southampton have picked up the highest share of their Premier League points this season away from home (57 per cent - 13/23). Meanwhile, only Nottingham Forest (77 per cent) have a higher share of points won at home in 2022-23 than West Ham (75 per cent - 18/24).

  Southampton have picked up as many points in their six Premier League games under Ruben Selles (8 – W2 D2 L2) as they had in their 17 league matches beforehand (W2 D2 L13).

  Sides starting the day bottom of the Premier League have won 11 league matches this season, four more than the whole of last term (seven), and the most in a single campaign in the competition since 2017-18 (12). Southampton have been responsible for three of those victories by bottom-placed sides in 2022-23, a joint-high (also Leicester).

  Best bet – James Ward-Prowse to create two chances:  Coming into this weekend's games, only Kieran Trippier (49) has created more chances from set plays than Ward-Prowse (35) in the Premier League this season, while the Southampton captain is the only player to create 25+ chances from both open play (27) and set pieces (35) in the division this term.

  Long shot – A goalless draw: No other sides have kept fewer clean sheets in the Premier League this season than Southampton (four) and West Ham (five)

  Opta prediction: Despite both of these teams struggling, it is West Ham who Opta give 51.4 per cent chance of claiming all the points. Southampton have been responsible for three of the seven victories by the bottom-placed side this season, but the likelihood of them succeeding this time stands at 21.7 per cent. 

  Newcastle United v Manchester United

  Following their goalless draw at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture, Newcastle are looking to keep a clean sheet in consecutive Premier League games against United for the first time since May 1997.

  No player has scored more winning goals in the Premier League this season than Marcus Rashford, with nine of his 14 strikes being the winner. Only two United players have ever scored more winning goals in a single campaign in the competition – Cristiano Ronaldo (12 in 2007-08) and Wayne Rooney (10 in 2009-10).

  Coming into this weekend's fixtures, only Bournemouth (38), Nottingham Forest (32) and Leicester (30) have conceded more away goals in the Premier League this season than United (27). Indeed, only in four different Premier League campaigns have the Red Devils conceded more on the road – 1999-00 (29), 2001-02 (28), 2018-19 (29) and 2021-22 (35).

  Best bet – United to win: United have won more Premier League away games against Newcastle than any other side (14). However, they have lost two of their last five such visits (W2 D1), having lost just one of their previous 13 at St James' Park. Newcastle are winless in six Premier League games against Man Utd (D2 L4), though the last two have both been drawn.

  Long shot – Rashford and Alexander Isak to score: Rashford has been involved in seven goals in his eight Premier League starts against Newcastle (four goals, three assists) – only against Arsenal and Leicester City (nine each) has he been involved in more. Isak, meanwhile, has scored six goals in 10 Premier League appearances for Newcastle this season, including three in his last two. 

  Opta prediction: This could prove a big game in the top-four race, with Newcastle only three points behind third-placed United. The visitors are made very slight favourites (36.8 per cent to 34.2 per cent). The draw is given a 29 per cent chance.

• Will Erling Haaland break the Premier League single-season goals record?

  Erling Haaland has done rather well for Manchester City since arriving.

  Fine, that may be something of an understatement. The 22-year-old has filled his boots and then some since he moved to the Etihad Stadium from Borussia Dortmund last year.

  Haaland has 42 goals in 37 games for City, with 28 of those coming in 26 Premier League appearances.

  Pundits will say they had their tongues firmly embedded in their cheeks when some suggested the Norwegian might find English football trickier to conquer despite his domination of the Austrian and German top-flights, but few could have anticipated such a relentless flow of goals.

  Those doubts appeared after Haaland's blank against Liverpool in the Community Shield defeat in his first official outing for the club, while he also failed to score in City's 1-0 loss at Anfield two and a half months later.

  He did find the net against Liverpool in their EFL Cup fourth-round win in December though, and should he be fit to take the field against Jurgen Klopp's men on Saturday, Haaland will be hoping to get closer to a record that many thought would never be broken.

  With 11 games remaining, Haaland is just seven short of claiming the record for the most goals in a single Premier League season, with Andrew Cole in 1993-94 for Newcastle United and Alan Shearer for Blackburn Rovers a year later both managing 34, albeit in campaigns that lasted 42 games.

  Haaland is just four behind Mohamed Salah's record for a 38-game Premier League season, set in 2017-18.

  So perhaps the question is not 'will he break the record?' but 'when?'

  Haaland has missed just one league game so far, and the injury that caused him to pull out of Norway's Euro 2024 qualifiers did not sound particularly serious, so even if he does miss the visit of Liverpool, he still has plenty of time to find the necessary goals.

  After all, he scored eight in his last two games before the international break, hitting five against RB Leipzig in the Champions League before another treble against Burnley in the FA Cup.

  As they fight Arsenal for the league title, City's remaining fixtures see them face Liverpool (h), Southampton (a), Leicester City (h), Arsenal (h), Fulham (a), West Ham (h), Leeds United (h), Everton (a), Chelsea (h), Brentford (a) and Brighton and Hove Albion (a).

  With the leaky defences of Liverpool, Saints and Leicester this season, it would not be a complete shock if he has already reached the magic number of 35 by the time he lines up against Arsenal for a crucial title clash.

  In the corresponding fixtures against those 11 opponents, Haaland scored 10 goals (two against West Ham, Leeds and Brighton, one against Southampton, Fulham, Arsenal and Everton, zero against Liverpool, Chelsea and Brentford and he did not play at Leicester), so even repeating his efforts against them will be more than enough.

  With 28 goals in 26 league games, Haaland is averaging 1.1 goals per game. That means if he can play in each of City's remaining games, he should reach 40 by the season's end.

  That could be asking a bit too much from him, especially considering City also have a Champions League quarter-final against Bayern Munich coming up, and head coach Pep Guardiola has been known to rest his stars for league games once that competition gets to the latter stages.

  Continuing the rate though – assuming he continues to play and the re-arranged game at Brighton is not scheduled beforehand – would see him break the record against Leeds on May 7, appropriately a former club of his father.

  While reaching 40 might be beyond him – emphasis on "might" – finding the seven required to overtake Cole and Shearer actually seems borderline routine for a player who has produced the numbers he has.

  In just the Premier League, Haaland has four hat-tricks, as many as the rest of the league combined (Phil Foden, Son Heung-min, Leandro Trossard and Ivan Toney all on one).

  He also doesn't have to worry about opportunities being created for him by his immensely talented City team-mates, having had 43 Opta-defined "big chances" – a chance from which a player would be expected to score – 15 more than the player with the next most (Toney).

  Haaland's shot conversion rate of 31.1 per cent is also well above any other player to score at least six goals in the Premier League this season, ahead of Brighton duo Kaoru Mitoma and Pascal Gross (both 26.1 per cent).

  He averages a goal every 75.6 minutes, comfortably ahead of Newcastle's Alexander Isak (103.8), Tottenham's Harry Kane (119.3), Leeds' Rodrigo Moreno (123.1) and Liverpool's Roberto Firmino (129).

  Former Newcastle and Manchester United striker Cole recently told Stats Perform it "doesn't bother" him if Haaland breaks his record.

  "I've said to people it doesn't bother me in the slightest, I don't care. If someone deserved to break that record, go ahead and do it," he said.

  "I don't care if he does it. I'll be the first one to congratulate him. Records are there to be broken."

  It looks like a record that will indeed go soon, and it may be the first of many that the irrepressible striker shatters.

• Gundogan future 'open' amid Barcelona links, says agent

  Ilkay Gundogan's future remains "open" despite reports suggesting the Manchester City midfielder is keen to join Barcelona upon the expiration of his contract, according to his agent.

  City captain Gundogan is entering the final three months of a four-year deal he signed back in 2019, and the Germany international is yet to agree to fresh terms.

  Gundogan has appeared in 24 of City's 27 Premier League games this campaign, yet reports have claimed he has his heart set on a move to Camp Nou at the end of the season.

  Despite suggestions Barcelona are willing to offer Gundogan a two-year deal, the player's agent and uncle Ilhan Gundogan says nothing has been decided.

  "There's definitely no agreement yet with any club," he told The Guardian. "The focus of Ilkay in recent weeks was only on Manchester City and the birth of his son. 

  "Now he is in the final and crucial phase of the season and is completely focused on that. Where Ilkay plays next season is still open."

  Gundogan has won four Premier League titles since joining City from Borussia Dortmund in 2016, scoring twice in a comeback win over Aston Villa to hand Pep Guardiola's team their latest triumph on the final day of last season.

  The 32-year-old did not feature for Germany in the recent international break, with Hansi Flick opting against calling him up after the birth of his child.