Most football seasons carry a degree of unpredictability; that's just the nature of sport.
But it's certainly arguable that this season is among the least predictable in living memory due to the unique timing of the World Cup, which took place across November and December for the first time.
In Italy, Napoli would've presumably been the team most frustrated by the timing of Qatar 2022. On course for a first Scudetto since 1990 and the days of Diego Maradona, the Partenopei had been head and shoulders above the rest in Serie A before the World Cup and among the most eye-catching sides in Europe.
They'd lost just once – a 2-0 Champions League defeat at Liverpool – and won all but three matches across all competitions prior to the season's break. So, the key question facing them now is, can momentum survive a two-month hiatus?
The next 10 days or so will give us a fairly clear indication of just how good Napoli are.
Napoli's testing return
Napoli return to action in 2023 with one of the most-anticipated games of the season. Not only are their title credentials set for a thorough examination, but Inter could do with a positive result to kick-start their season.
Simone Inzaghi's men sit fifth, 11 points behind Napoli. A spell of four defeats in six Serie A games between August and October gave Inter an uphill struggle right from the early weeks of the season.
They recovered, to an extent, but did also lose to Juventus in early November. You'd have to think their chances of regaining the title they won in 2021, but relinquished to city rivals Milan last season, will disappear into the realms of impossibility if they are beaten on Wednesday.
Some might even suggest that's the case already. After all, Stats Perform's AI prediction model gives them only a 4.3 per cent chance of finishing the season top – though that is at least higher than the two teams directly above them.
It's not just this Inter clash that Napoli fans will have on their minds, however.
They host bitter rivals Juventus on January 13, and like Inter, the Bianconeri will also still harbour title hopes. That's assuming they don't suffer the unlikely fate of losing to Udinese – whose form tailed off after an incredible start – and winless Cremonese in the interim.
Perhaps all this talk of the title is a bit daft when you consider Napoli's clash with Juve won't even be the halfway point of the season: there remains a long way to go.
However, when a team has been as good as Napoli were before the World Cup, it's only normal to start considering how many more opportunities their rivals have.
Inter potentially have a joker in the pack, though.
Romelu's redemption?
It's been a difficult 18 months for Romelu Lukaku. His highly anticipated return to Chelsea was underwhelming, to say the least, and resulted in him making his way back to Inter.
"It's like coming home," he said. But injuries restricted the 29-year-old to just four appearances in Serie A before the World Cup, therefore Italy is very much still waiting for the real Lukaku to return.
In fact, the world is still waiting. Let's not forget, Lukaku did feature for Belgium in Qatar but did little to rebuild his fractured reputation.
Granted, injuries again limited his involvement but that performance against Croatia as Belgium were knocked out at the group stage was remarkable. He had five shots equalling 1.7 expected goals (xG), including three absolute sitters, yet he failed to convert any.
But if Lukaku does get back to anything like what he showed during his previous spell in San Siro, there's every reason to expect a slightly different Inter between now and the end of the season.
During those two campaigns with the Nerazzurri, Lukaku's haul of 47 league goals was bettered by only four players across the top five leagues. Similarly, his 35 non-penalty (np) strikes was only slightly above his np-xG (33.1 – also the fifth-highest in the top five leagues), which supports the idea he was dependable without being regularly lucky.
Of course, Antonio Conte's system at Inter was what many considered key in Lukaku's improvement. His pace, strength and running power – helped of course by his finishing ability – made the Belgian almost unplayable in a transition-based side.
Chelsea never saw the same player partly because Thomas Tuchel is a more possession-orientated coach; those opportunities to release Lukaku in behind defences just weren't as frequent and he arguably isn't technically good enough to be a key player in such a setup.
As such, Inzaghi was aware he'd have to change his tactics somewhat to adjust to Lukaku this season – this will be tested to the max over the coming weeks, and its success will likely determine Inter's campaign one way or the other.
Former Soca Warriors stalwart Shaka Hislop points to lack of talent, depth in T&T squad as Dwight Yorke's biggest test
Though Dwight Yorke is committed to throwing his best efforts into his new role as senior Soca Warriors Head coach, former teammate Shaka Hislop believes it is the talent within Trinidad and Tobago’s setup that will ultimately determine the success of his tenure.
Yorke, the former Manchester United and Soca Warriors striker, was given a mandate by the Trinidad and Tobago Football Association (TTFA) to qualify the Twin Island Republic to the 2026 Fifa World Cup or face the boot and the 53-year-old has declared his readiness to give of his best.
“Rest assured, I will give 100. I feel very calm, very excited at the same time, but fully aware of the challenge that is lying ahead. There’s lots of hard work to be done,” Yorke told TTFA media interview shortly after arriving in Trinidad and Tobago on Friday.
“Not just me, the backroom stuff, the players to get where we want to get... obviously, trying to qualify for the World Cup. And yes, along the way, I’m sure they’re going to be some testing times for us. But that’s the challenges that lies ahead. So once we embrace it, once we are fully aware of it, and once we get the support, I fully believe, I’m fully confident that we can get the job done,” he added.
However, Hislop, while welcoming Yorke’s appointment, knows all too well that coaches coach but the results will ultimately come from how the players perform on match days.
In fact, Hislop, who along with Yorke represented the Soca Warriors at the 2006 global showpiece, was not shy to admit that the current squad lacks depth and sufficient talent, which he believes represent the toughest aspect of the puzzle at this point. This, as aside from AEK Athens striker Levi Garcia, Yorke’s current crop is made up of mostly lower leagues or home-based players.
“We’ve kind of stumbled from coach to coach over the last four or five years, probably dating back to Stephen Hart when he was in charge. But I think the TTFA got it right this time. That’s with the greatest respect to our teammate Dennis Lawrence and Angus Eve, who have both been in charge of the team, but results really didn’t go their way,” Hislop shared during a podcast.
“I think the big challenge for Dwight coming in with this squad is it’s not a very talented squad, if I may say so... certainly, on paper, and results would bear that out. How he’s able to find the right pieces for this puzzle is going to be Dwight’s biggest test,” the ESPN analyst added.
That said, Hislop also pointed to the significance of match fitness and, as such, urged the TTFA to ensure Yorke and his players consistently engage warm-up games during the November 2024 and March 2025 international windows.
Trinidad and Tobago currently sit second in Group B on four points, two behind Costa Rica, with St. Kitts and Nevis (three points), Grenada (one point), and the Bahamas (zero point) completing the group. Qualifying action will resume in June 2025.
“We’ve got some games during the international window as well. We’ve got the November window, which will be Dwight’s first time on the sidelines. So we have opportunity to see the squad, to make adjustments, to try to bring in players before things get very serious in terms of qualifiers,” Hislop noted.
Conte fumes at VAR after 1-1 draw with Inter
Antonio Conte was frustrated that VAR did not reverse a penalty decision against Napoli as they played out a 1-1 draw with Inter on Sunday.
Hakan Calhanoglu failed to convert the spot kick in question late in the game, with the Turkish international having equalised for the hosts after Scott McTominay's opener.
Despite the decision not affecting the result in the end, Conte criticised VAR for not overruling the referee's decision to penalise Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa for a foul on Denzel Dumfries.
"Can they [VAR] only intervene when it suits them? A decision from the referee like this can transform a match and VAR cannot do anything about it," Conte told DAZN.
"Either VAR is there to correct errors or it is not. If there is an error, it has to intervene. It really angers me, but it does to all coaches. It has to intervene if there is a mistake.
"If there is VAR, it must be used to correct errors or show the referee situations that he did not see. If it's a clear error, and it was, then why should [referee Maurizio] Mariani be allowed to just do that."
Despite his frustration with refereeing decisions, Conte was satisfied with his team's performance, as they held strong against a spirited second-half display from the Italian champions.
"I said that we would not come here to just be sparring partners against the strongest squad in Serie A, so it was important for us to face them with strength, character, accepting duels all over the field," he said.
"On that score, I am very satisfied. It was not easy to play here. We all know that we are making improvements and working hard, otherwise, you don't come to San Siro twice and also against Juventus without defeat.
"The lads are proving themselves, though, of course, we could've done much, much more in terms of quality today. There were too many errors, a lot of technical errors, but I am sure there will be further improvements."
Napoli's point ensured they stayed top of Serie A heading into the international break, moving them to 26 points in what is shaping up to be a tight title race. Conte's side sit one point clear of Atalanta, Fiorentina, Inter and Lazio.
Premier League MD11: Lucky winners and unlucky losers
The final international break of 2024 is here, and we can safely say the Premier League is starting to take shape.
Opta's supercomputer now has Liverpool, who are five points clear at the top following their win over Aston Villa on Saturday, as the favourites to go on and win the title.
Manchester City lost a fourth straight game in all competitions as they went down 2-1 at Brighton, while Chelsea and Arsenal are third and fourth respectively after sharing the points.
When assessing the underlying metrics, it looks like Sunday's draw at Stamford Bridge was a fair result, but that was not the case across the board this weekend.
Here, we pick out the lucky winners and unlucky losers from matchday 11.
Lucky winners: Manchester United
Manchester United are now under new management, with Ruben Amorim officially starting as head coach on Monday. But interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy ensured he went out with a high as the Red Devils beat Leicester City 3-0 on Sunday.
However, it is fair to say United were rather fortunate to net three times at Old Trafford, with the data suggesting they did not even create chances worthy of one goal, never mind three.
United's expected goals (xG) was 0.69, the third-lowest total in the league this weekend and behind Leicester's 0.77.
Bruno Fernandes scored one and set up another on his 250th appearance for the club, either side of Victor Kristiansen's own goal, but from 13 shots, United, who had only 17 touches in Leicester's box, really did not create much in the way of quality opportunities.
Indeed, their attacking quality instead told, with Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho finishing well. At the other end, Leicester failed to make their moments count, despite hitting the target with five of their six shots.
Spare a thought for Erik ten Hag, given when he was in charge, United's attack was underperforming. Now Amorim just needs to pick up where Van Nistelrooy left off...
Unlucky losers: Manchester City
Man City are suddenly the crisis club, having lost four straight games for the first time since August 2006. Pep Guardiola, meanwhile, has lost four games in a row in all competitions for the very first time in his managerial career.
Erling Haaland also lost a Premier League match in which he scored a goal for the very first time, having put City ahead before Joao Pedro and Matt O'Riley clinched the points for Brighton.
Brighton finished with 2.29 xG, so they did deserve to score at least twice. However, City can still consider themselves unfortunate, given their 2.22 xG was the third-highest of any team across the weekend.
Their post-shot expected goals on target (xGoT) also rose to 2.98, showing that Brighton goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen was on fine form.
City also created five big chances, missing four of them, and hit the woodwork once. That being said, they conceded eight big chances, with Brighton letting them off for six of those, so it was not a good day at the office for Guardiola.
Unlucky losers: Bournemouth
If Man City were unfortunate, then the team to have created the highest xG (2.61) this past weekend – Bournemouth – can consider themselves hard done by.
Andoni Iraola claimed his team were worthy of the three points against Brentford, despite the Cherries losing 3-2, and the underlying metrics suggest the Spaniard was fair in his assessment.
Only Tottenham (35 in their loss against Ipswich Town) had more touches in the opponent's box than Bournemouth's 34 at the Gtech Community Stadium, but Iraola's side were made to pay for some dismal finishing.
Their xGoT dropped to 1.68, while Brentford's rose from 1.48 xG to 1.84 xGoT – essentially, the level of finishing from Brentford's players increased the likelihood they would score, while Bournemouth's finishing was below what would have been anticipated based on the quality of chances they had. That is further backed up by the fact the Cherries only got three of their 15 attempts on target.
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