Sunday's Premier League clash at Old Trafford between Manchester United and Arsenal is a fixture that in years gone by would have had significant ramifications in the title race.
United and Arsenal spent the best part of the noughties fighting it out for honours in the prime years of Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger. It was box office stuff.
That pair of legends have since left their posts and both clubs have stuttered as a result, with title glory now beyond the realm of expectation as the sides instead focus on achieving a top-four finish and Champions League football.
In the 2022-23 season, neither will be in Europe's elite competition, with Arsenal in the midst of a five-year Champions League drought and United finishing sixth last term – the fifth time in nine seasons outside of the top four.
Mikel Arteta and Erik ten Hag are the men tasked with improving upon that record at their respective clubs, the Gunners having stood firm despite struggles at the start of last season and United turning to the former Ajax boss ahead of the new campaign.
In modern football, unlike in the eras of Ferguson and Wenger, it is not just the management who have a direct influence in proceedings, with executives in the club's hierarchy having a major say on transfer market activity.
Both clubs fell into disarray in the market after the departures of their long-serving managers, Arsenal making expensive mistakes in Nicolas Pepe and United spending close to a billion on an array of recruits in the post-Ferguson era.
Under the watch of Edu, Arsenal now appear to be moving forward with a clear plan alongside Arteta, demonstrating a ruthlessness in the past few years to oust numerous high-earning players from the squad – creating room for recruits like Gabriel Jesus.
In the three seasons since Edu has been in charge of transfer activity, following the departure of Raul Sanllehi, the Gunners have allowed the likes of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Mesut Ozil, Willian and Shkodran Mustafi to leave the club by cancelling their contracts.
In the wake of those bold decisions, Arsenal have not readily sought like-for-like replacements, instead freeing up room in what was viewed as a bloated wage bill.
Alongside this, Arsenal have made a conservative effort in the transfer market to create a squad that can be a success for years to come, particularly in the last two seasons.
Since the 2021-22 campaign, Arsenal's only recruit above the age of 25 is the capture of goalkeeper Matt Turner in the current window – a player who stands as the understudy to first-choice stopper Aaron Ramsdale and a replacement for Bernd Leno, who joined Fulham.
Edu appears to have learnt lessons from 2020-21, his first season at the helm, where five of six recruits were above the age of 25 – Thomas Partey, Pablo Mari, Alex Runarsson, Willian and Cedric Soares.
At United, the overall look of the recruitment drive paints a vastly different picture. In the past two seasons, five of nine recruits fall into the 25 or over category; Raphael Varane, Cristiano Ronaldo, Tom Heaton, Casemiro and Christian Eriksen. In the season prior, Alex Telles and Edinson Cavani fall into that category.
It is also worth identifying the sums paid for players of this ilk, with Arsenal's deal for Turner reportedly worth up to £7.5m if add-ons are met, a figure that is dwarfed by United's reported spending.
Since the 2021-22 transfer window, United have reportedly splashed over £100m on the deals to land Varane, Ronaldo and Casemiro – with add-ons in those deals potentially seeing a further rise in costs.
While Ronaldo was able to repay his fee with 18 Premier League goals last term, he has pushed for an exit in the current window due to a desire to play in the Champions League, but, in the case of Varane, United splashed further money on Lisandro Martinez despite already having Varane and Harry Maguire in the squad.
United's questionable approach in the market has also come under scrutiny amid deals that were reportedly eyed but not completed, including apparent intentions to sign Marko Arnautovic and Adrien Rabiot in the current window, then setting sights on Ajax's Antony and concluding a whopping £86m deal.
Time will tell whether Arsenal's approach is successful but the club appear to have all their major pieces moving in the right direction, while at United it is a difficult task to put your finger on exactly what the plan is.
Sunday's result may provide bragging rights for the winning team but in the long-term battle, there appears to only be one winner.
No joys of spring for faltering Arsenal
Arsenal’s form in April looks like costing them dearly again this season after they exited the Champions League and fell behind in the title race.
After costly defeats to Aston Villa and Bayern Munich, the PA news agency looks at the Gunners’ recurring failings at this time of year.
Same old story
Manager Mikel Arteta backed his side to “write our story very differently” against Bayern and had previously called on them to recreate the aura of the 2003-04 “Invincibles”, who won the league without losing a game.
They may instead be following the pattern of Arsenal teams since then who have narrowly missed out on success, particularly last season when they began April eight points clear.
They maintained that margin by beating Leeds on April 1 but drew their next three games and then lost to eventual champions Manchester City as they finished five points behind.
Consecutive league defeats to Crystal Palace, Brighton and Southampton in April 2022 contributed to Arsenal missing out on the Champions League.
This season, they were top after beating the Seagulls but defeat to Villa left them two points behind City. That was sandwiched between the two legs of the Bayern tie, a 2-2 draw at home and Wednesday night’s 1-0 defeat in Germany, leaving them needing to end a three-game winless run when they face Wolves on Saturday.
It is not a new phenomenon either – as far back as 2007-08, Arsenal finished four points off the top after winning only one of eight games from February 23 to April 13.
They took one point from four games in the run-in to end their 2009-10 title challenge and five from the final six games in 2010-11 to finish down in fourth, and winning their final five games in 2013-14 was not enough after they took two points from the previous four. They were top of the league for more days that season than any other team, as was the case last year with a record 248.
Same old faces
The PA news agency understands there are some concerns within Arsenal over tiredness and fatigue taking their toll on the players, and their playing time paints a stark picture.
Eight of Wednesday night’s starting XI – David Raya, Ben White, Gabriel, William Saliba, Declan Rice, captain Martin Odegaard, Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz – have played over 3,000 minutes in all competitions this season.
Those figures exclude stoppage-time and are already more than for either of the previous two campaigns, with six league games still to play.
White, Gabriel, Odegaard and Saka have all hit that threshold in each of the last three seasons for totals in excess of 10,000, with Gabriel leading the way at 11,220. His emergence with Brazil means all bar White are now also regulars for their respective countries.
Gabriel Martinelli could yet add a ninth name to this season’s list and Arteta must work out a way to keep his star men fresh and avoid their now traditional springtime slump.
Q&A – How Man City and Arsenal exits could impact Premier League’s European race
The prospect of five English clubs competing in next season’s Champions League is hanging by a thread after Manchester City and Arsenal were knocked out of the continent’s premier club competition on Wednesday night.
Here, the PA news agency explains the situation.
Why is there an extra place?
From this season, the two countries who collectively perform best in this season’s men’s European club competitions will each gain a European Performance Spot (EPS) for one of their clubs in the following season’s Champions League, which will feature a 36-team league phase from 2024-25 replacing the familiar eight groups of four.
For each of the best-performing countries, the EPS goes to the highest-finishing club in those countries who have not already qualified for the Champions League via their domestic performance. In England’s case, that would be the team finishing fifth – currently Tottenham.
How do the rankings look at the moment?
The rankings – known as the association club coefficient – are led this season by Italy. Germany were already ahead of England in the race for the second spot heading into the quarter-final second legs, but the exits of City and Arsenal – coupled with Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund making progress – have widened the gap.
Last Friday – after the Europa League and Conference League first legs had been played – Germany had 16.785 points compared to England’s 16.750, a gap of 0.035. On Thursday morning the gap had grown to 0.767, with Germany on 17.642 and England on 16.875.
How are the points worked out?
Teams gain points for wins (two) and draws (one) from the start of the group phase in all three of UEFA’s men’s club competitions. Teams also earn points for participation in the Champions League group phase and for making progress beyond certain rounds in all three competitions.
The association coefficient is calculated by working out an average score – dividing the total number of points the clubs win by the number of clubs representing that country in Europe. So in England’s case any points won by the Premier League representatives are divided by eight.
Can England still do it?
In theory yes. West Ham and Liverpool could still meet in the Europa League final if they can overturn first-leg deficits to Bayer Leverkusen and Atalanta respectively on Thursday night, and Aston Villa could still go all the way in the Conference League. That, coupled with the remaining German teams stumbling, means there is still very slim hope.
But Germany certainly have the edge and could even end up with six teams in next season’s Champions League. If Dortmund finish fifth in the Bundesliga but win the Champions League, it would be the second of those achievements which would secure them their Champions League place for 2024-25. The EPS would then be awarded to whoever finishes sixth – currently Eintracht Frankfurt.
We’ll get back up – Martin Odegaard urges Arsenal to respond to European exit
Captain Martin Odegaard has backed Arsenal to roll with the punches as they aim to keep their season on track against Wolves on Saturday.
The Gunners were knocked out of the Champions League following a 1-0 defeat by Bayern Munich on Wednesday night, with the German side progressing to the semi-finals 3-2 on aggregate courtesy of Joshua Kimmich’s bullet header.
The disappointment at the Allianz Arena followed on from Sunday’s 2-0 home loss to Aston Villa that dented Arsenal’s Premier League title charge.
Mikel Arteta’s side are now two points behind leaders Manchester City and face a tricky trip to Molineux this weekend, knowing victory would take them top with City playing in the FA Cup.
The PA news agency understands there are some concerns within the club over tiredness and fatigue taking their toll on the players at such a crucial stage of the season, especially in the second half of the Villa game.
Following the two damaging defeats, Odegaard conceded the Champions League exit will hurt – but feels Arsenal have plenty still to play for.
“I mean it takes a little bit to get going again, but I think what you play for in the league is enough motivation for all of us,” he said.
“So we just have to stick together, get back up, and keep pushing. We can still do something very special.
“I think that is enough motivation to just keep going, keep working hard and pushing each other. We have to keep going.
“Every game now is so important, it has been for a while. It has been so tight and so competitive.”
Kimmich headed home in the second half after Arsenal had enjoyed the best of a tense first 45 minutes, in which Gabriel Martinelli wasted the best chance for the visitors.
Bayern now go on to face Real Madrid in the last four after the LaLiga giants beat City on penalties, meaning there is no English club in the semi-finals for the first time since the 2019-20 campaign.
“I think it was, again, a very tight game, as the home game was,” added Odegaard.
“But I think you see it in front of the goals, that’s where we lost the tie. It was a bit similar to the home game.
“We gave away a very easy goal today and we are not sharp enough in front of the opponent’s goal. That’s where the games are decided and that’s where we lost the game.
“We wanted to do more, so at the moment we are just disappointed. It has been a long time since we have been here (in the Champions League), but at the moment it is disappointing.
“We wanted to go further. We wanted to go all the way. First of all, we are disappointed, but I think we have done something good as well.
“Every time you get hit you have to stand up and go again. The key thing is to stand together and lift each other up. Then, as I said, we have something really nice to play for, so that’s where we have to put the mindset now.
“Of course we want to win something and that’s been the big goal. But I think we can’t look too far ahead, we have to take it day by day, and game by game.
“First of all, now we have to lift each other up and we have to get ready for the next game. Then we move on from there.”
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