LaLiga 2022-23: Real Madrid still the team to beat – Stats Perform AI predicts

By Sports Desk August 11, 2022

LaLiga, home to the European champions, returns on Friday for another season.

Real Madrid ended the previous campaign by winning the Champions League, the prize they covet most, but it was also a successful year in domestic action.

Carlo Ancelotti's men eased to a record-extending 35th league title by 13 points – that is the gap Barcelona have sought to bridge in the transfer market during the close season. So, just how successfully have they done that?

Stats Perform AI has predicted the outcome of the coming campaign, estimating the likelihood of teams finishing in each position informed by their expected results in each match.

These are calculated using betting odds and Stats Perform's team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances – and have thrown up some interesting results, with Barca seemingly left still with plenty to do.

MADRID MAINTAIN BUFFER TO BARCA

Given their 35 titles, given their 13-point gap, given their status as European champions, it is surely no surprise Madrid are considered the clear favourites to scoop Spanish football's top prize once again.

The data makes Ancelotti's side 58.75 per cent favourites to retain their crown.

Barca recovered from a dismal start last season to finish second, and they are forecast for the same result again after investing hugely in Robert Lewandowski and Co.

But there is only a 17.0 per cent chance of the title heading to Camp Nou, with Atletico Madrid a predictable third in the rankings and rated as a 12.3 per cent shot.

Those three clubs have accounted for the past 18 championships since Valencia finished top in 2003-04. Now, under Gennaro Gattuso, Valencia have a mere 0.08 per cent chance of returning to the summit, deemed ninth favourites among 11 teams with any hope at all.

Sevilla (4.74 per cent) and Villarreal (4.66 per cent) are the sides most likely to upset the established order.

 

PRECIOUS FOURTH PLACE UP FOR GRABS

There realistically remains only one of the four Champions League places on offer after taking into account Madrid (95.68 per cent), Barca (79.31 per cent) and Atletico (71.56 per cent). Last season, that belonged to Sevilla.

Yet despite Sevilla's high ceiling seeing them fourth favourites for the title, Stats Perform AI expects them to be pushed out of the top four.

After losing defensive duo Jules Kounde and Diego Carlos, Sevilla are given a 47.45 per cent of qualifying for the Champions League, just behind former coach Unai Emery's Villarreal (48.66 per cent), who were seventh last season but reached the semi-finals of Europe's elite club competition.

Real Sociedad (24.79 per cent) and Real Betis (20.39 per cent) are both firmly in the mix, too, although every team in the league have at least a 0.04 per cent hope of contending for Champions League glory.

Athletic Bilbao are expected to be on the outside looking in from eighth place (7.48 per cent for Champions League, 7.42 per cent for Europa League and 10.51 per cent for Europa Conference League).

 

NO ESCAPE THIS TIME FOR MALLORCA

The fight against the drop went right to the wire last term, with three teams still in the mix on the final day.

Granada were the surprise victims of a dramatic scrap, relegated just two weeks after winning 6-2 at Mallorca. Mallorca then earned seven points from their next three games to stay up alongside Cadiz at Granada's expense.

That late recovery may have rescued Mallorca for another year, but Stats Perform AI predicts their LaLiga stay will last no longer than that.

They are 41.27 per cent favourites to go down, even considered more likely for demotion than Girona (39.95), who were promoted via the play-offs.

Real Valladolid, another promoted side, are ranked as the third relegated team (32.74 per cent), yet there is very little to choose between a clutch of clubs, with Cadiz (31.8 per cent) again at risk alongside Elche (31.48 per cent), second-tier champions Almeria (28.86 per cent) and Rayo Vallecano (27.46 per cent).

Related items

  • Liverpool line up Feyenoord coach Slot as Klopp replacement Liverpool line up Feyenoord coach Slot as Klopp replacement

    Arne Slot appears to be at the front of the queue to replace Jurgen Klopp as Liverpool manager.

    Klopp confirmed in January that he would be leaving the Reds at the end of the season.

    Xabi Alonso, who has led Bayer Leverkusen to their first Bundesliga title, was swiftly established as a leading candidate to take the helm at Anfield, where he starred as a player for the Reds between 2004 and 2009.

    The 42-year-old, however, is staying put in Germany, and Liverpool's search for Klopp's successor has taken them to Feyenoord's door.

    Slot has been previously linked to jobs in the Premier League. Leeds United wanted to appoint him last season before their relegation to the Championship, while he was targeted by Tottenham before they appointed Ange Postecoglou.

    The Dutchman intimated when linked with Spurs: "A normal next step would be to go abroad and I've always said that the best league in the world is the Premier League."

    Ideally, Liverpool will be aiming for a coach who can come close to replicating Klopp's style of play, and in particular has a flair for working with and developing young players.

    Slot has enjoyed fantastic success in Rotterdam. He became Feyenoord head coach in December 2022, after leaving AZ, and went on to win the Eredivisie title in 2022-23, having reached the Europa League final in the previous season.

    The 45-year-old has a 64.4 per cent win record from 146 games in charge, winning 94, drawing 29 and losing just 23.

    His Feyenoord team have scored 329 goals, an average of 2.2 per match, conceding 147 in return. Slot's points per game is a hugely impressive 2.13.

    Feyenoord are, though, set to relinquish their Eredivisie crown, as they trail leaders PSV by nine points. They have, however, won the KNVB Cup this term. 

    As there is no break clause in the Dutchman's contract, it has been reported that a compensation fee in the region of €10million (£8.5m) could prise him away from Feyenoord.

    Sporting CP boss Ruben Amorim is another coach who has been heavily linked with the Liverpool job, albeit he is reportedly in talks with West Ham.

  • Allegri says Juventus are victims of own success after clinching Coppa Italia final berth Allegri says Juventus are victims of own success after clinching Coppa Italia final berth

    Massimiliano Allegri declared Juventus have been victims of their own success this season after watching his Bianconeri side eliminate Lazio to reach the Coppa Italia final on Tuesday. 

    Juventus took a 2-0 lead into Tuesday's semi-final second leg at Stadio Olimpico but saw that advantage wiped out when Valentin Castellanos scored either side of half-time.

    However, a late strike from Arkadiusz Milik handed Juventus a 3-2 aggregate success and ensured they will appear in their eighth Coppa Italia final in the last 10 years.

    Despite Juventus having a chance to lift their first major trophy since 2021 and being on course for a return to the Champions League, Allegri has continued to be criticised by sections of the media.

    He believes Tuesday's achievement should be celebrated, however, saying: "It's never easy to reach a final, in the last three years we have played two Coppa Italia finals. 

    "Now we must concentrate on Serie A, as we have not yet achieved Champions League qualification and this weekend it's the head-to-head with Milan."

    Juventus sit third in Serie A ahead of Saturday's home clash with the Rossoneri, and with Italy guaranteed five Champions League places for next season, they are almost certain to be back among Europe's elite in 2024-25.

    However, Juventus' drop-off in the second half of the season has led to continued speculation regarding Allegri's future.

    At the turn of the year, Juventus were just two points behind Inter at the top of the table, but the Nerazzurri are now 22 points clear of their rivals and have clinched the Scudetto with five games to spare.

    Allegri believes a fine start to the season gave rise to unreasonable expectations in Turin, adding: "This final is also worth Supercoppa Italiana qualification, so that is important financially. 

    "Criticism will always be around Juventus, but it's our own fault for having a great first half to the season that nobody was expecting. 

    "At that point, people thought we could fight it out with Inter, but I was worried that we could have difficulties in the second half. We had a big advantage and mentally rather let go."

    Juventus will face either Atalanta or Fiorentina in next month's final, with the Viola holding a 1-0 lead in the other semi-final tie ahead of Wednesday's second leg in Bergamo. 

  • Gallagher insists Chelsea players are fighting for the shirt after Arsenal collapse Gallagher insists Chelsea players are fighting for the shirt after Arsenal collapse

    Conor Gallagher insists Chelsea's players are putting in the required effort amid fierce fan criticism in the aftermath of Tuesday's 5-0 defeat to Arsenal.

    Chelsea's miserable first season under Mauricio Pochettino took another turn for the worse at the Emirates Stadium as they were put to the sword by Mikel Arteta's title contenders.

    The Gunners racked up 27 shots at goal as they recorded their biggest ever victory over Chelsea, who looked devoid of inspiration with leading goalscorer Cole Palmer sidelined due to illness.

    During the game, one disgruntled travelling fan held up a banner which read: "I don't want your shirt, I just want you to fight for ours".

    The charge that Chelsea are not fighting for results was put to Gallagher by TNT Sports after the game, and the Blues' stand-in captain denied that was the case.  

    "We definitely are putting the effort in," Gallagher said. "I know how much it means to all the boys. It's a very young squad with not much experience as a team in the Premier League.

    "This season we've had a lot of ups and downs. We're still improving and working as a team to get to that next level.

    "Today was one of those days where we were nowhere near it and we need to dust ourselves off, look at the performance, where we can improve and all the mistakes we made."

    The defeat means Chelsea remain ninth in the Premier League table, three points adrift of sixth-placed Newcastle United and Manchester United in seventh, with both of those teams in action on Wednesday.

    Pochettino's men face another daunting task on Saturday when they travel to Champions League-chasing Aston Villa, before hosting Tottenham in another London derby next Thursday.

© 2023 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.