Carlo Ancelotti's return to Real Madrid last year came as something of a surprise to most.
While the job he'd done at Everton was generally seen as fine, there was nothing about his time at Goodison Park that suggested the Italian would be back at the top of the game in his next job.
His appointment at the Santiago Bernabeu could've almost been interpreted as a pointed dig at Clasico rivals Barcelona, where managerial hirings tend to be based around 'philosophy' – few could say that about Ancelotti, a coach arguably regarded more for his motivational skills, tactical flexibility and winning than for sticking to one defined brand of football.
Regardless of how surprising Ancelotti's return was, he certainly got the job done. Madrid looked certainties for the title virtually all season and pulled off great escape after great escape to eventually win the Champions League, traversing one of the toughest routes to European Cup glory ever seen.
But let's not forget, Ancelotti's won the Champions League with Madrid before. Last time, in 2014, he lasted only another year and a day before he was discarded.
From Milan dynasty to short-term guarantee
Perhaps it shouldn't be a shock, given many of the clubs he's coached have been among the biggest – and that usually means impatient by extension – teams in Europe, but Ancelotti hasn't been in charge of a single club for more than two consecutive full seasons since leaving Milan in May 2009.
Granted, his spells at Paris Saint-Germain and Everton ended essentially because Madrid came calling, so who's to say how long he'd have been in charge. But clearly there has been a pattern in his working life since Milan.
Ancelotti will be acutely aware of the expectations upon him at Madrid as he's lived through them before and paid the price for failing to achieve his targets.
But you have to wonder if anything will be different this time around.
Ancelotti's dismissal in 2015 came down to the fact Madrid didn't win a (major) trophy in the 2014-15 season. Florentino Perez's decision at the time wasn't universally popular, though no one would've been surprised.
In the culture created by Perez at the club, a lack of success simply equates to failure, and clearly even the good will attained by winning La Decima – Madrid's 10th European crown – only lasts you so long.
Perez's statement to the media even seemed to admit there being a degree of not knowing what else to do, as he said: "It was a very difficult decision to make; the demands at this club are the utmost because Madrid always wants to win silverware.
"The affection that the players and the fans have for Carlo is the same as the affection I myself have for him. What did Ancelotti do wrong? I don't know. The demands here at Real Madrid are very high."
Essentially, since his Milan days, Ancelotti has been brought in by teams to achieve success quickly and, for the most part, he's done that almost everywhere he's been – but long-term success in one place has eluded him.
Presumably then, Ancelotti will have to again win at least one of LaLiga or the Champions League to stick around for a third season. That stands to reason at Real Madrid, and there's no reason they would be considered incapable on either front, but expecting everything to fall into place like last season is asking for trouble.
Tempting fate?
Who's to say Madrid won't cruise to the title again with Karim Benzema conquering every team in his path? It's entirely possible.
The key differences this time around are the fact Madrid are heading into the season without a defined back-up striker for Benzema, and Barcelona have strengthened significantly.
Firstly on Barca, if we assume they are able to register all of their new signings in time for the season's start, they'll have bolstered a team that finished the 2021-22 season very well. In fact, since the start of 2022, their 45 points was more than any other LaLiga team.
Granted, Madrid played one game less (19), but if they had contested a 20th match and won it, they'd still have been two points shy of Barca.
The change inspired by Xavi cannot be overstated and, as much of a mess as the club is off the pitch, there's every reason to expect them to be a force on it this season.
For Madrid and Ancelotti, again their hopes will be pinned on Benzema. Of course, on the face of it that's not an issue. He's scored at least 21 league goals in each of the past four seasons and never made fewer than 27 top-flight appearances for Los Blancos.
As a difference-maker and consistent presence, he's their Mr Reliable. But what if he does pick up a major injury: who will Madrid rely on to fill the Benzema void?
Vinicius Junior enjoyed a remarkable season but wouldn't be suited to the Benzema role, stylistically or as a leader. Again, when Eden Hazard is fit, he is not a central striker, while Mariano Diaz has started just 11 league games in four seasons.
Madrid's decision to get rid of Luka Jovic was probably the right one given how underwhelming the Serbian had been, and there's no guarantee anyone else brought in as a backup would've been more effective.
But it does seem an unnecessary risk for a club like Madrid to go into a season without a second striker – or without a second striker who's got a better track record than Diaz. That's the decision Florentino Perez has reportedly made.
Even if they were granted special dispensation to sign another LaLiga-based striker out of the transfer window, mid-season integration for that player would be tough in every way.
Yes, yes, yes, it's all hypothetical and no one likes to think about the worst-case scenario, but surely it's better to plan for that possibility than to leave it to chance? Perhaps Ancelotti has a master backup plan hidden up his sleeve in the event of losing Benzema for a while – we'll only find out if it happens.
But if it does and his answer is to rely on Diaz, there's little hope of Ancelotti reaching that elusive third season.
Philadelphia Union v Real Salt Lake: Curtin keen to maintain tough reputation
Jim Curtin is keen to see the Philadelphia Union retain their reputation as a tough team to play against, with his side still unbeaten this season ahead of Saturday's visit of Real Salt Lake.
The Union sit sixth in the Eastern Conference standings with three wins and four draws so far this term, their latest stalemate coming by a 2-2 scoreline against Atlanta United last time out.
While Curtin was somewhat disappointed to see the Union's three-match winning streak ended in Georgia, he is pleased by the resilience they have shown ahead of their return to Subaru Park.
"Whether people in the public think we're good or think we're bad, they will at least say we're tough to play against," Curtin said.
"I think that unequivocally across the board, there's not a coach or general manager or fan in this league that would say we're an easy team to deal with and play against.
"Part of that is not losing, finding ways to turn losses into ties, ties into wins, and we'll look to try to continue to do that and really protect our home field."
Philadelphia face a tough test this weekend, though, against a Salt Lake team currently flying high in third in the Western Conference.
Pablo Mastroeni's men are unbeaten in their last four games, producing their best performance of 2024 to date last time out as they thrashed the Chicago Fire 4-0 on the road.
"I'm so excited about what we can do as a group, as players and coaches, and the onus is on us to continue to get better and really push this thing forward," Mastroeni said after that win.
"I think we've established a decent standard, and we know where we are at our best and where we are lacking, but it's testament to the work the guys are doing during the week."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Philadelphia Union – Mikael Uhre
Uhre scored the Union's first goal as they fought back from two goals down to draw in Atlanta.
He has four goal involvements in MLS play this term (three goals, one assist), a tally only matched by Daniel Gazdag and Julian Carranza among his Union team-mates.
Real Salt Lake – Cristian Arango
Arango scored twice against the Fire last week and has now been involved in at least one goal in four straight regular-season road games, equalling the longest such streak in Real Salt Lake's history.
Might he break new ground at Subaru Park?
MATCH PREDICTION – PHILADELPHIA UNION WIN
The Union's only win in 12 all-time meetings with Real Salt Lake was a 4-1 home victory when the teams last met at Subaru Park in May 2018 (six draws, five losses). This will be the sides' first meeting on any ground since June 2019.
While the visitors are unbeaten in their last five matches (three wins, two draws), this could be their toughest test to date.
Philadelphia have only lost one of their last 41 regular-season home matches (28 wins, 12 draws), including going unbeaten through their last 16 (nine wins, seven draws), a run dating back over a year.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Philadelphia Union – 57.8%
Real Salt Lake – 17.3%
Draw – 24.9%
New York City v Charlotte FC: Cushing wants more from in-form hosts
Nick Cushing is pushing for more as New York City bid for a third successive victory against Charlotte FC at Yankee Stadium on Saturday.
NYCFC are eighth in the Eastern Conference standings after back-to-back 2-0 home wins over the New England Revolution and D.C. United, having gone four unbeaten (two wins, two draws).
Their consecutive wins have come after a run of just two victories in their previous 10 (three draws, five losses), but Cushing does not want his team to stop there.
"I think the three-game run is something that we have a huge desire to achieve," Cushing said.
"I said after the game in the locker room, it has been a long time since we've gone back-to-back. It's been too long, really, since we went back-to-back, so it's good to enjoy that after the game.
"Now we have the opportunity to do a three-game run. We have to make sure we do that before we think about anything else."
Charlotte have gone the opposite way in recent weeks, losing two of their last three games to leave them behind New York on goal difference.
Former Aston Villa boss Dean Smith acknowledges they need to show more in the forward areas after averaging just one goal per game in 2024.
"That's certainly an area where we need to be better, I think we all know that. We've been working on it for the last three or four weeks," Smith said.
"I think defensively we've been really solid. In terms of our creativity, we've had some big chances that we haven't taken.
"Last week [in a 3-0 loss to Minnesota United] there were some moments we didn't take as well, technically we just failed on that."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
New York City – Santiago Rodriguez
Rodriguez recorded a goal and an assist in NYCFC's win over D.C. last week and now has four goals and one assist this season, with all of those involvements coming at home.
Since the start of last season, 14 (seven goals, seven assists) of Rodriguez's 16 goal contributions in regular-season matches have come at home.
Charlotte FC – Ashley Westwood
Charlotte have failed to score in two of their last three games, and a lack of creativity has been a theme of their campaign to date.
Captain Westwood leads all Charlotte players for chances created this season, with 13, and he could be key if they are to hit the goal trail.
MATCH PREDICTION – NEW YORK CITY WIN
Charlotte are unbeaten in five all-time meetings with New York (four wins, one draw), including a 1-0 win over them in the teams' season opener on February 24.
The Crown are the only team NYCFC have faced more than once in MLS play and never defeated, but that may just change this week.
New York have won back-to-back matches to nil, a major defensive upturn after they managed just one clean sheet in their previous 10. Charlotte, meanwhile, have only earned one point from four road games in MLS this year, losing their last three in a row.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
New York City – 51.8%
Charlotte FC – 21.1%
Draw – 27.1%
FC Cincinnati v Colorado Rapids: Armas wants players to enjoy rise
Chris Armas says his Colorado Rapids players deserve to enjoy their meteoric rise up the MLS standings, and he is confident they will not get carried away ahead of their trip to FC Cincinnati.
Colorado sit fourth in the Western Conference with 15 points from nine games, winning three of their last four after an inconsistent start to the year.
They benefitted from two own goals as they beat FC Dallas 2-1 last time out, and Armas has no issue with his players enjoying their place in the standings, particularly given they finished rock bottom of the West in 2023.
"I see the boys looking at the TV where we have the standings posted, and they see that we're climbing, so it's all good stuff," Armas said.
"From day one the message that I preached is that everything we do will be based on hard work and that we will never get too low on ourselves.
"We don't get too high, the boys are realistic. That part's not that hard and our group is hungry and looking to improve every day."
Supporters' Shield holders Cincinnati have had an up-and-down start, going unbeaten through their first five games of the year before suffering back-to-back defeats against the New York Red Bulls and CF Montreal (both 1-2).
However, Pat Noonan's men bounced back with a statement 2-1 victory over Atlanta United last week, and defender Matt Miazga hopes that result will be a turning point.
"I look at everybody and I'm like, 'Alright, I see in his face, I see in his face. We want it,'" Miazga said.
"We all realised we are a top team, with big personalities, big characters, and it's time to show up in big moments."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
FC Cincinnati – Luciano Acosta
Acosta assisted Cincinnati's equaliser against Atlanta last Saturday before scoring the winner two minutes later.
That was Acosta's 13th regular-season match with a goal and an assist since the start of the 2022 season, three more than any other player in MLS has managed during that time.
Colorado Rapids – Djordje Mihailovic
Mihailovic has created at least twice as many chances as any other Colorado player in MLS this term (16), with Keegan Rosenberry and Sam Vines creating eight apiece.
He also has two goals and one assist to his name, while only Rafael Navarro (16) has bettered his 10 successful dribbles among his team-mates.
MATCH PREDICTION – FC CINCINNATI WIN
Cincinnati earned their first win over the Rapids last May, triumphing 1-0 on the road. The Rapids had won the first two meetings between the sides, including a 2-0 victory on their only previous trip to Cincinnati.
The Rapids also enter Saturday's game having won successive regular-season matches for the first time since September 2022, eyeing their first three-game winning streak since August 2021.
However, Cincinnati ended their poor run by beating Atlanta last time out and have, despite some underwhelming performances, only lost two of their nine league games this term (four wins, three draws). On home soil, the Supporters' Shield holders are favourites.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
FC Cincinnati – 49.3%
Colorado Rapids – 23.3%
Draw – 27.4%
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