Maybe this time football really is 'coming home'.
Hosts England are widely considered among the favourites to win Euro 2022 as Sarina Wiegman leads the Lionesses onto the big stage, and they can be considered marginal front-runners for a wide-open tournament.
That conclusion is based on modelling from Stats Perform's Artificial Intelligence team, using Opta's data reserves to quantify each team's chances of winning the entire tournament.
Every match has been run through the Stats Perform Women's Euro prediction model to calculate the estimated probability of the outcome (win, draw or loss). This uses odds from betting markets and Stats Perform team rankings, which are based on historical and recent performances.
The model takes into consideration the strength of each team's opponents as well as the difficulty of their respective paths to the final, plus the make-up of the groups and any relevant seedings heading into the knockouts.
The rest of the tournament is then simulated thousands of times and analysed, providing the probability of each team progressing round by round and ultimately lifting the trophy at Wembley on July 31.
Spain have been widely portrayed as favourites, but La Roja might find it hard going in England. Here is a run-down of the AI results, and they might shock you.
MOST LIKELY CHAMPIONS
1. England (19.3 per cent)
Runners-up in 1984 and 2009, perhaps England's second European finals on home soil could bring about a triumph the Lionesses have longed to achieve.
They have such immense strength in their forward ranks that Ellen White, joint top scorer at the 2019 World Cup, is not assured of her place in the team. The likes of Ella Toone, Beth Mead and Alessia Russo could push White for the starting spot as striker, with three attackers set to feature in behind, as manager Wiegman looks to blow away the opposition.
England are given an 81.9 per cent chance of coming through the group stage to reach the quarter-finals, a 54.1 per cent shot at getting through to the semi-finals, and a 31.1 per cent hope of making it through to the Wembley trophy match. Their 19.3 per cent chance of carrying off the trophy means it is hardly a given that England will finish bathed in glory, and that is because the opposition is so strong.
2. France (18.5 per cent)
Les Bleues left Amandine Henry and Eugenie Le Sommer out of their squad, meaning two of their recognised stars will be conspicuously absent from Corinne Diacre's team.
Stats Perform's women's football Power Rankings puts France second on the global list, behind only the United States, but coach Diacre is dicing with danger by omitting proven performers. Should things go wrong, fingers will likely be pointing her way.
However, at the back France have the stalwart Wendie Renard skippering the side, while in attack the Paris Saint-Germain striker Marie-Antoinette Katoto should make a big impact on her first major senior tournament. They possess quality, notwithstanding the notable absentees.
France have Italy, Belgium and Iceland as Group D rivals and are given a 74.8 per cent chance of advancing and are rated 49.1 per cent shots to make in into the semi-finals.
3. Sweden (14.6 per cent)
FIFA ranks Sweden second in its own rankings, and the Scandinavians were only denied Olympic gold in Tokyo last year after a penalty shoot-out loss to Canada in the final.
They might lack superstar names, but the likes of Barcelona's Fridolina Rolfo, Milan's Kosovare Asllani and Arsenal's Stina Blackstenius are players to keep an eye on.
The Swedes are given an 84.2 per cent chance of reaching the quarter-finals – the highest percentage of all teams – as they head into a group that also features defending champions the Netherlands along with Switzerland and Portugal.
4. Germany (11.5 per cent)
The eight-time winners cannot be ruled out, but they are no longer the team that everyone fears. Starting off in the same pool as Spain complicates their task considerably, with Euro 2017 runners-up Denmark also in Group C, along with Finland.
Given that line-up, Germany are given a 72.8 per cent shot at finishing in the top two and reaching the quarter-finals, plus a 43.2 per cent chance of making the last four and a 22.0 per cent prospect of getting through to the final.
5. Spain (8.8 per cent)
Some might scoff at Spain being given such a low rating, but they face the same problem as Germany initially, with no guarantee of escaping Group C.
Jorge Vilda's Spain are built on formidable foundations, with players from Barcelona and Real Madrid dominating their squad. Barcelona won all 30 of their domestic league games last year, but their players were knocked out of stride by defeat to Lyon in the Champions League final.
Having the likes of 100-cap playmaker Alexia Putellas in their ranks makes Spain an undoubted threat. However, she has suffered an injury on the eve of the tournament, and Spain have yet to triumph on the big-tournament stage. Like Spain's men before they found a winning formula, the women's football can be a joy to watch, but their efficiency in front of goal can be lacking.
They have reached quarter-finals at the last two editions of the Euros, and are rated as 71.6 per cent likely to at least go that far this time around. Will they reach a final first? The AI analysis gives them just a 19.0 per cent chance of featuring in the Wembley showpiece.
6. Netherlands 7.2 per cent
Champions last time out when they hosted, the Dutch will believe they can defend their title, and the team's opener against Sweden will tell us a lot about their potential.
Englishman Mark Parsons has stepped in to replace Euro 2017-winning boss Wiegman, inheriting a group containing the likes of Vivianne Miedema, Lieke Martens and Danielle van de Donk, who are all potential stars of the tournament.
This time the Netherlands are given only a 64.6 per cent chance of advancing to the quarters, and a 15.8 per cent hope of reaching another final. A 5-1 pasting by England in a pre-finals friendly has cast doubt on whether they can be the same force as five years ago. If they fail to top Group C, a likely quarter-final with France awaits.
TITLE CHANCES OF THE REST (all figures are percentages): Belgium 4.5, Italy 2.9, Iceland 2.8, Austria 2.6, Norway 2.3, Switzerland 2.3, Denmark 1.1, Finland 0.6, Portugal 0.6, Northern Ireland 0.3
Fulham boss Marco Silva will continue to demand more from Andreas Pereira as the Brazilian looks to maintain his form heading into the closing weeks of the Premier League season.
Pereira scored both goals in Fulham’s 2-0 victory at West Ham last weekend, which was a first win in four matches.
The former Manchester United attacking midfielder had not found the net since August, but is top of Fulham’s assists with eight so far.
The consistency of Pereira, who was born in Belgium, has seen him recalled into the Brazil national team, featuring in both March friendlies against England at Wembley and then Spain.
Silva feels the 28-year-old, who had a successful loan spell at Flamengo before signing for Fulham in the summer of 2022, still has plenty more to offer.
“Andreas, last season made a huge impact. Before he joined us, he played more as a second midfielder and not so offensive,” the Fulham boss said.
“This season, he is going to have one of the best assist records for us – and we will demand more.
“Last week, he showed the desire to arrive in the right areas.”
Fulham host Liverpool on Sunday looking to further dent the Reds’ ambitions.
Jurgen Klopp’s side were knocked out of the Europa League by Atalanta and also slumped to what could prove a costly home defeat against Crystal Palace to lose ground in the Premier League title race.
Fulham have pushed Liverpool in each of their three meetings this season, being narrowly edged out 4-3 after a dramatic finish at Anfield in their league match at the start of December followed by what was a tight Carabao Cup semi-final over two legs.
“Probably some of them (have been) too open for a manager to enjoy, but yes, at Anfield and at the Cottage as well, they have been really – in some moments – emotional games, in other moments entertaining,” Silva said at a press conference.
“Tight games always, in some of them dramatic ends of the match. But even last season, it was really tough for them to come to play at Craven Cottage (in the) Carabao Cup this season, too.”
Silva added: “We want to make life really difficult for Liverpool, to give them a match.
“Let’s hope we can get a different result than the last games that we played against them.
Fulham could yet challenge for a top-10 finish.
“I think we are in the best moment of the season,” Silva said. “We haven’t had big injuries in the last month and a half, or two months.
“It, of course, creates a competition inside our squad that helps myself and the players to reach a different level and good headaches for me to decide, which is always the better situation to plan a game and prepare for the next game.”
Jurgen Klopp: Trent Alexander-Arnold and Diogo Jota give Liverpool ‘a chance’
Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp believes the return of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Diogo Jota gives their title hopes a much-needed boost.
Defeat to Crystal Palace last weekend saw Klopp’s side drop to third as Manchester City moved into a two-point lead at the top of the table.
But with results faltering, the performance by Alexander-Arnold in the Europa League win over Atalanta, particularly in the first half, has offered renewed hope.
The defender was making his first start since mid-February after a knee injury and, while Jota has yet to have the same impact in three relatively short substitute appearances after a similar two-month lay-off, the clinical nature of his game could offset some of the deficiencies currently being experienced by his fellow forwards.
“We need Trent Alexander-Arnold, of course, but we need him in a really good shape and form and that’s what he has to get up to,” said Klopp ahead of the trip to Fulham.
“It’s not about him and it’s not his fault if he wouldn’t be, it’s just the situation. So how quick can we get him rolling if you want – the same for Diogo.
“We have to find a way to help the boys in the best way, to bring them as quick as possible into their best form or shape and from there we have to go.
“Without them we wouldn’t have a chance. With them we have a chance, with them in a really good football moment the chance gets bigger and bigger.”
Klopp remains positive about their chances despite recent failures and feels six wins could see them snatch the title from the grasp of their rivals.
Although a Europa League exit on aggregate was disappointing there were positives to take from the game.
Alexander-Arnold’s display, drifting infield to dictate play and even popping up in the centre-forward’s position on occasions in Bergamo, was one and a first clean sheet in 10 matches was another.
With struggles up front continuing – Liverpool have scored only two goals in the opening 15 minutes in a league game this season – a more solid backline offers a better platform and that is why Klopp is optimistic.
“I don’t have a lot of qualities but I am always completely honest. If I don’t feel great the players feel it pretty quickly,” he said.
“I cannot really deny or just keep it under the carpet so that means after the game against Palace people ask ‘What do you tell the team now?’.
“But here we are a few days later and I feel absolutely great, I see the good in the situation where we are. It is fantastic.
“The boys know that I don’t tell them things which I don’t believe in and I am 100 percent sure we can really win all of the games we will have to from now on.
“What should influence us more: the last game, the last week or is it the chance in front of us?
“I am fully (of the opinion) that there is a next chance for us and we can turn things absolutely around in all departments. We can make it still an outstanding season.
“It will be a good season but of course how you look at it is in the end is massively influenced by the last part of it.”
‘Excited’ Gareth Taylor wants his Manchester City team to take advantage
Gareth Taylor has urged Manchester City to step up and seize their moment in the Women’s Super League title race.
Chelsea returned to the summit on goal difference on Wednesday night with a 3-0 win over Aston Villa but Taylor’s team will play twice before the current champions get the chance to add to their 46-point tally.
While Chelsea switch their attention to Champions League semi-final action with Barcelona over the next two weekends, City host West Ham on Sunday before they travel to Bristol City on April 28 with the aim of being six points clear going into May.
Taylor told a press conference: “Wednesday night changed things around a little bit again but of course we play now two games before Chelsea play again, so it is an important moment for us to step up and do our bit.
“That is all we will do. Attack the next game, give it our very best and do what we can.
“Yeah, I’m excited about this next period and think it is a great opportunity for us.
“If we had looked at that at the beginning of the season, knowing that most of the time the WSL goes to the final game, I think it is a fantastic position for us to be in.
“We’ve worked so hard and we don’t want to lose that opportunity. We want to continue with it and take it all the way.”
City will have first-choice Khiara Keating in goal after she was able to shake off the knee issue which forced her to leave England national team duty earlier this month.
View this post on InstagramGrace Clinton will be a notable absentee due to the terms of her loan at Spurs from United and she will also be unavailable at Wembley on May 12.
Tottenham head coach Robert Vilahamn has made no secret of his desire to keep the England international beyond this season-long loan but his opposite number Marc Skinner talked up his future hopes for Clinton in a United shirt.
Skinner said: “When we signed Grace two seasons ago, it was that we saw this level of potential for sure.
“It’s really interesting talking to people around her and so on, there is still loads more we can give to her and we can keep adding to her.
“But I can’t stress this enough, the whole reason she went on loan was to be able to do that.
“We couldn’t give her the minutes that needed her to be able to do that but she has now proven she is in that space, she has had that exposure and I look forward to welcoming her back to do that for Manchester United.”
Sunday’s other fixture will see third-placed Arsenal host Leicester with the Gunners eager to close the gap on Chelsea, which stands at six points with four fixtures left to play.
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