Maybe this time football really is 'coming home'.
Hosts England are widely considered among the favourites to win Euro 2022 as Sarina Wiegman leads the Lionesses onto the big stage, and they can be considered marginal front-runners for a wide-open tournament.
That conclusion is based on modelling from Stats Perform's Artificial Intelligence team, using Opta's data reserves to quantify each team's chances of winning the entire tournament.
Every match has been run through the Stats Perform Women's Euro prediction model to calculate the estimated probability of the outcome (win, draw or loss). This uses odds from betting markets and Stats Perform team rankings, which are based on historical and recent performances.
The model takes into consideration the strength of each team's opponents as well as the difficulty of their respective paths to the final, plus the make-up of the groups and any relevant seedings heading into the knockouts.
The rest of the tournament is then simulated thousands of times and analysed, providing the probability of each team progressing round by round and ultimately lifting the trophy at Wembley on July 31.
Spain have been widely portrayed as favourites, but La Roja might find it hard going in England. Here is a run-down of the AI results, and they might shock you.
MOST LIKELY CHAMPIONS
1. England (19.3 per cent)
Runners-up in 1984 and 2009, perhaps England's second European finals on home soil could bring about a triumph the Lionesses have longed to achieve.
They have such immense strength in their forward ranks that Ellen White, joint top scorer at the 2019 World Cup, is not assured of her place in the team. The likes of Ella Toone, Beth Mead and Alessia Russo could push White for the starting spot as striker, with three attackers set to feature in behind, as manager Wiegman looks to blow away the opposition.
England are given an 81.9 per cent chance of coming through the group stage to reach the quarter-finals, a 54.1 per cent shot at getting through to the semi-finals, and a 31.1 per cent hope of making it through to the Wembley trophy match. Their 19.3 per cent chance of carrying off the trophy means it is hardly a given that England will finish bathed in glory, and that is because the opposition is so strong.
2. France (18.5 per cent)
Les Bleues left Amandine Henry and Eugenie Le Sommer out of their squad, meaning two of their recognised stars will be conspicuously absent from Corinne Diacre's team.
Stats Perform's women's football Power Rankings puts France second on the global list, behind only the United States, but coach Diacre is dicing with danger by omitting proven performers. Should things go wrong, fingers will likely be pointing her way.
However, at the back France have the stalwart Wendie Renard skippering the side, while in attack the Paris Saint-Germain striker Marie-Antoinette Katoto should make a big impact on her first major senior tournament. They possess quality, notwithstanding the notable absentees.
France have Italy, Belgium and Iceland as Group D rivals and are given a 74.8 per cent chance of advancing and are rated 49.1 per cent shots to make in into the semi-finals.
3. Sweden (14.6 per cent)
FIFA ranks Sweden second in its own rankings, and the Scandinavians were only denied Olympic gold in Tokyo last year after a penalty shoot-out loss to Canada in the final.
They might lack superstar names, but the likes of Barcelona's Fridolina Rolfo, Milan's Kosovare Asllani and Arsenal's Stina Blackstenius are players to keep an eye on.
The Swedes are given an 84.2 per cent chance of reaching the quarter-finals – the highest percentage of all teams – as they head into a group that also features defending champions the Netherlands along with Switzerland and Portugal.
4. Germany (11.5 per cent)
The eight-time winners cannot be ruled out, but they are no longer the team that everyone fears. Starting off in the same pool as Spain complicates their task considerably, with Euro 2017 runners-up Denmark also in Group C, along with Finland.
Given that line-up, Germany are given a 72.8 per cent shot at finishing in the top two and reaching the quarter-finals, plus a 43.2 per cent chance of making the last four and a 22.0 per cent prospect of getting through to the final.
5. Spain (8.8 per cent)
Some might scoff at Spain being given such a low rating, but they face the same problem as Germany initially, with no guarantee of escaping Group C.
Jorge Vilda's Spain are built on formidable foundations, with players from Barcelona and Real Madrid dominating their squad. Barcelona won all 30 of their domestic league games last year, but their players were knocked out of stride by defeat to Lyon in the Champions League final.
Having the likes of 100-cap playmaker Alexia Putellas in their ranks makes Spain an undoubted threat. However, she has suffered an injury on the eve of the tournament, and Spain have yet to triumph on the big-tournament stage. Like Spain's men before they found a winning formula, the women's football can be a joy to watch, but their efficiency in front of goal can be lacking.
They have reached quarter-finals at the last two editions of the Euros, and are rated as 71.6 per cent likely to at least go that far this time around. Will they reach a final first? The AI analysis gives them just a 19.0 per cent chance of featuring in the Wembley showpiece.
6. Netherlands 7.2 per cent
Champions last time out when they hosted, the Dutch will believe they can defend their title, and the team's opener against Sweden will tell us a lot about their potential.
Englishman Mark Parsons has stepped in to replace Euro 2017-winning boss Wiegman, inheriting a group containing the likes of Vivianne Miedema, Lieke Martens and Danielle van de Donk, who are all potential stars of the tournament.
This time the Netherlands are given only a 64.6 per cent chance of advancing to the quarters, and a 15.8 per cent hope of reaching another final. A 5-1 pasting by England in a pre-finals friendly has cast doubt on whether they can be the same force as five years ago. If they fail to top Group C, a likely quarter-final with France awaits.
TITLE CHANCES OF THE REST (all figures are percentages): Belgium 4.5, Italy 2.9, Iceland 2.8, Austria 2.6, Norway 2.3, Switzerland 2.3, Denmark 1.1, Finland 0.6, Portugal 0.6, Northern Ireland 0.3
Ronaldo: 'You cannot rebuild Man United without knowledge'
Cristiano Ronaldo believes Manchester United "cannot rebuild without knowledge" as he urged Erik ten Hag to take advice from assistant coach - and former Red Devils striker - Ruud van Nistelrooy.
United opened the Premier League season with a 1-0 win over Fulham, but then suffered back-to-back defeats against Brighton and Hove Albion and Liverpool.
It is the second time under Ten Hag the Red Devils have lost as many as two of their first three league games in a season (also 2022-23); as many times as in their previous 29 campaigns combined.
United have also scored three goals fewer than their xG suggests they should have so far this term (two goals, 5.2 xG), the biggest such difference for any team in the Premier League.
Ten Hag was recently joined in the dugout by compatriot Van Nistelrooy, who scored 150 in 219 appearances at Old Trafford between 2001 and 2006.
And Ronaldo - the scorer of 145 in 346 games across his two spells - thinks the Red Devils will benefit from the wisdom of people with prior experience and knowledge of the club.
"[As the] Man United manager; you cannot say that you're not going to fight to win the Premier League or Champions League," he told former team-mate Rio Ferdinand on FiveUK.
"You've to say: 'maybe we've not got the potential, but we're going to try'. You have to try!
"If Ten Hag listens to Ruud van Nistelrooy, maybe he can help. He knows the club and the club should listen to the guys who were there [like] Rio, Roy Keane, [Paul] Scholes, Gary Neville, Alex Ferguson. You cannot rebuild a club without knowledge."
United return to action this weekend away at pointless Southampton, against whom they are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League visits since a 1-0 defeat in August 2003.
The Red Devils have also lost just one of their last 30 Premier League matches against promoted sides, winning 15 of their last 17 such games.
Nagelsmann pleased with Germany development after Euro 2024 disappointment
Julian Nagelsmann believes Germany have taken the next step in their development after sharing the spoils in an entertaining clash with the Netherlands on Tuesday.
Tijjani Reijnders handed the hosts the lead with just a minute and 39 seconds on the clock, only for Deniz Undav and Joshua Kimmich to respond before the break.
The Netherlands drew level five minutes into the second half through Denzel Dumfries, leaving the pair joint-top of Group A3 after the opening round of fixtures.
But with German ambitions of being strong contenders at the next World Cup after their Euro 2024 disappointment, Nagelsmann is looking to see improvements in every match despite the tournament being just under two years away.
“There is an awareness that every game is important,” Naglesmann said.
“We have the Nations League now, the qualifiers next year and then hopefully off to the World Cup. We have 18 games left until then - if all goes well.
“The team believes in itself and that is the key. That is what we all want to see. Today we saw a team that wanted to win."
But in an enthralling encounter, Nagelsmann acknowledged that improvements need to be made at both ends of the pitch.
Germany managed just five shots on target from the 21 they attempted, registering an expected goals total (xG) of 2.94 during the contest.
While only restricting the Netherlands to 11 shots, their opponents created four big chances to Germany's three, with the Oranje also winning 53.1% of their duels compared to 46.9% for Nagelsmann's side.
“Both defences were too vulnerable but offensively, we were stronger, tried to create more and took a bit more risk," Nagelsmann said.
“In the early stages of the second half, we tried a little too hard and were maybe a bit too aggressive in the tackles.”
The Germany head coach was particularly pleased with his side's response to falling behind early on Reijnders' finish.
“The way we came back was very good. It took us five or six minutes, but then we were well in the game," Nagelsmann concluded.
Germany continue their Nations League campaign with two away fixtures next month, starting with Bosnia and Herzegovina, followed by a reunion with the Dutch on October 14.
Bellamy earns maiden Wales win in 'toughest game of his career'
Craig Bellamy praised his players for overcoming some of the toughest conditions he has witnessed to earn him his first win as Wales head coach against Montenegro in the Nations League.
Kieffer Moore opened the scoring after just 36 seconds at the Stadion Kraj Bistrice, with Wales netting inside a minute for the first time since Robert Earnshaw in 2004.
But the Dragons doubled their advantage with two minutes and 27 seconds on the clock, this time Harry Wilson found the back of the net with a fine finish from distance.
It was the first time Wales had scored twice within the opening three minutes of a game since April 1961 against Northern Ireland to give Bellamy a dream start.
However, the conditions in Montenegro were far from ideal, with the rain-soaked pitch allowing Driton Camaj to pull one back for the hosts in the 73rd minute.
Wales were able to see out the remaining minutes to seal their first win of their Nations League campaign, building on their impressive showing against Turkiye.
"These are the toughest conditions I've been in. Nothing about coming here has been easy," Bellamy said.
"You could have had a lot of excuses about this trip. The change of venue, the travel here, a bus driver who took his time, the conditions. But sometimes you learn from it.
"There is a reason why this group have qualified for major tournaments. It wasn't a football match. The conditions weren't going to allow it."
Wales are now unbeaten in their last eight competitive fixtures (W4 D4), their longest such run since a run of 11 between September 2019 and November 2020.
Bellamy's appointment has seemingly revitalised Welsh football, with his expansive and exciting style of play catching the eyes of those across Europe.
The Dragons return to action next month when they face Iceland and Montenegro once again, something that Bellamy is already counting down the days for.
"Last night I was really excited about the game but also sad as it ends tomorrow," Bellamy said.
"What happens on Tuesday? They're all going to leave me and I don't want them to go.
"You want your first win of course and you want it quick. Longer-term I see us being able to affect games in a positive way."
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