Maybe this time football really is 'coming home'.
Hosts England are widely considered among the favourites to win Euro 2022 as Sarina Wiegman leads the Lionesses onto the big stage, and they can be considered marginal front-runners for a wide-open tournament.
That conclusion is based on modelling from Stats Perform's Artificial Intelligence team, using Opta's data reserves to quantify each team's chances of winning the entire tournament.
Every match has been run through the Stats Perform Women's Euro prediction model to calculate the estimated probability of the outcome (win, draw or loss). This uses odds from betting markets and Stats Perform team rankings, which are based on historical and recent performances.
The model takes into consideration the strength of each team's opponents as well as the difficulty of their respective paths to the final, plus the make-up of the groups and any relevant seedings heading into the knockouts.
The rest of the tournament is then simulated thousands of times and analysed, providing the probability of each team progressing round by round and ultimately lifting the trophy at Wembley on July 31.
Spain have been widely portrayed as favourites, but La Roja might find it hard going in England. Here is a run-down of the AI results, and they might shock you.
MOST LIKELY CHAMPIONS
1. England (19.3 per cent)
Runners-up in 1984 and 2009, perhaps England's second European finals on home soil could bring about a triumph the Lionesses have longed to achieve.
They have such immense strength in their forward ranks that Ellen White, joint top scorer at the 2019 World Cup, is not assured of her place in the team. The likes of Ella Toone, Beth Mead and Alessia Russo could push White for the starting spot as striker, with three attackers set to feature in behind, as manager Wiegman looks to blow away the opposition.
England are given an 81.9 per cent chance of coming through the group stage to reach the quarter-finals, a 54.1 per cent shot at getting through to the semi-finals, and a 31.1 per cent hope of making it through to the Wembley trophy match. Their 19.3 per cent chance of carrying off the trophy means it is hardly a given that England will finish bathed in glory, and that is because the opposition is so strong.
2. France (18.5 per cent)
Les Bleues left Amandine Henry and Eugenie Le Sommer out of their squad, meaning two of their recognised stars will be conspicuously absent from Corinne Diacre's team.
Stats Perform's women's football Power Rankings puts France second on the global list, behind only the United States, but coach Diacre is dicing with danger by omitting proven performers. Should things go wrong, fingers will likely be pointing her way.
However, at the back France have the stalwart Wendie Renard skippering the side, while in attack the Paris Saint-Germain striker Marie-Antoinette Katoto should make a big impact on her first major senior tournament. They possess quality, notwithstanding the notable absentees.
France have Italy, Belgium and Iceland as Group D rivals and are given a 74.8 per cent chance of advancing and are rated 49.1 per cent shots to make in into the semi-finals.
3. Sweden (14.6 per cent)
FIFA ranks Sweden second in its own rankings, and the Scandinavians were only denied Olympic gold in Tokyo last year after a penalty shoot-out loss to Canada in the final.
They might lack superstar names, but the likes of Barcelona's Fridolina Rolfo, Milan's Kosovare Asllani and Arsenal's Stina Blackstenius are players to keep an eye on.
The Swedes are given an 84.2 per cent chance of reaching the quarter-finals – the highest percentage of all teams – as they head into a group that also features defending champions the Netherlands along with Switzerland and Portugal.
4. Germany (11.5 per cent)
The eight-time winners cannot be ruled out, but they are no longer the team that everyone fears. Starting off in the same pool as Spain complicates their task considerably, with Euro 2017 runners-up Denmark also in Group C, along with Finland.
Given that line-up, Germany are given a 72.8 per cent shot at finishing in the top two and reaching the quarter-finals, plus a 43.2 per cent chance of making the last four and a 22.0 per cent prospect of getting through to the final.
5. Spain (8.8 per cent)
Some might scoff at Spain being given such a low rating, but they face the same problem as Germany initially, with no guarantee of escaping Group C.
Jorge Vilda's Spain are built on formidable foundations, with players from Barcelona and Real Madrid dominating their squad. Barcelona won all 30 of their domestic league games last year, but their players were knocked out of stride by defeat to Lyon in the Champions League final.
Having the likes of 100-cap playmaker Alexia Putellas in their ranks makes Spain an undoubted threat. However, she has suffered an injury on the eve of the tournament, and Spain have yet to triumph on the big-tournament stage. Like Spain's men before they found a winning formula, the women's football can be a joy to watch, but their efficiency in front of goal can be lacking.
They have reached quarter-finals at the last two editions of the Euros, and are rated as 71.6 per cent likely to at least go that far this time around. Will they reach a final first? The AI analysis gives them just a 19.0 per cent chance of featuring in the Wembley showpiece.
6. Netherlands 7.2 per cent
Champions last time out when they hosted, the Dutch will believe they can defend their title, and the team's opener against Sweden will tell us a lot about their potential.
Englishman Mark Parsons has stepped in to replace Euro 2017-winning boss Wiegman, inheriting a group containing the likes of Vivianne Miedema, Lieke Martens and Danielle van de Donk, who are all potential stars of the tournament.
This time the Netherlands are given only a 64.6 per cent chance of advancing to the quarters, and a 15.8 per cent hope of reaching another final. A 5-1 pasting by England in a pre-finals friendly has cast doubt on whether they can be the same force as five years ago. If they fail to top Group C, a likely quarter-final with France awaits.
TITLE CHANCES OF THE REST (all figures are percentages): Belgium 4.5, Italy 2.9, Iceland 2.8, Austria 2.6, Norway 2.3, Switzerland 2.3, Denmark 1.1, Finland 0.6, Portugal 0.6, Northern Ireland 0.3
Sessegnon rejoins boyhood club Fulham after Tottenham departure
Ryan Sessegnon has resigned for Fulham on a free transfer, five years after leaving the club.
The 24-year-old signed a two-year contract with the Cottagers with the option to extend for a further year following his departure from Tottenham last month.
In his first spell at the club, Sessegnon worked his way through the academy over 11 years, scoring 25 goals in 120 first-team appearances.
He then moved to Spurs in a £25million deal in 2019, though struggled to nail down a place in North London, making just 57 appearances in all competitions, and scoring three goals.
"It's amazing to be back. Emotional, as well," he told FFCtv. "It's where it started for me, where everything began, and it's amazing to be back.
"It will always be home for me. I think it had the feeling that it was meant to be, coming back here, so I'm delighted to get it done."
Sessegnon is Fulham's first signing of the transfer window, though they have seen plenty of first-team departures already, with Joao Palhinha, Tosin Adarabioyo and Bobby De Cordova-Reid all leaving the club.
Lindstrom joins Everton on loan from Napoli
Everton have completed the loan signing of Jesper Lindstrom from Napoli, the club confirmed on Friday.
Lindstrom will join the Toffees for the 2024-25 season with the deal including an option to make the move permanent at the end of the campaign.
The 24-year-old becomes the fourth addition at Goodison Park following the arrivals of Tim Iroegbunam, Iliman Ndiaye and Jack Harrison.
Lindstrom arrives after a difficult season with Napoli, playing just 416 minutes in 22 league appearances for the Serie A side.
The Denmark international arrived in Naples from Eintracht Frankfurt where he scored 14 goals in 80 appearances, helping the German side lift the Europa League in the 2021-22 season.
“I feel very good. It’s amazing to represent Everton," Lindstrom said in his first interview with the club.
"This is a big club, with big history, a good stadium and, as I’ve seen, very good facilities as well. I’m very, very happy to be here and I feel like this is a good fit.
“I actually heard of Everton’s interest a while ago – not only from now but previously. England is very similar to Denmark so I will feel at home quickly.
“I’ve spoken to the manager. It sounds as though he likes the way I play football and I can be a good fit for the team with my speed, so now I want to deliver."
The search for another attacking option out wide had been the priority at Everton, having seen Arnaut Danjuma return to Villarreal following the completion of his loan deal, and the sale of Lewis Dobbin to Aston Villa.
Everton managed 40 goals last season, the second worst in the Premier League ahead of Sheffield United (35), and Dyche believes Lindstrom has a lot to offer in the final third.
"Jesper is a player with very good ability who can operate in a number of different attacking roles, which will benefit us heading into the new season," said Dyche.
"He joins us with a range of different experiences. He is hungry and eager to succeed with us, and that's a strong starting point as we look to add more productivity to our attack."
Maguire labels England criticism 'ridiculous' following Euro 2024 display
Harry Maguire has defended his England team-mates after their performance at Euro 2024, labelling the criticism as "a bit ridiculous".
England reached back-to-back European Championship finals but suffered the same outcome in Berlin as they did at Wembley three years ago.
The defeat against Spain saw Gareth Southgate become the first head coach in the history of the tournament to end up on the losing side in two finals.
Southgate called time on his eight-year tenure in charge of the Three Lions two days after the tournament ended, winning 59.8% of his 102 games in charge.
Despite this, underwhelming performances in Germany saw cups thrown towards the former England head coach as supporters jeered the players.
Southgate came under fire for his defensive approach, though only Walter Winterbottom (383) and Alf Ramsey (224) have overseen more England goals than his 213.
However, Maguire has come to the defence of his team-mates.
“Yes, performances might not have been amazing but it is tournament football," Maguire told BBC Sport.
"It is not as expansive. There are far less risks taken. You can’t afford to make mistakes or get caught going out in a full press. You saw throughout the tournament there were not many high-scoring wins.
“I just don’t know what the media or fans expected of this team. Was it to go and beat Serbia 4-0 in the first game and then beat Denmark 3-0? Did they think it was just going to be a walk in the park?”
Under Southgate's stewardship, England reached more major tournament finals in four attempts (two) than they did in their first 23 appearances at the World Cup and Euros (one).
Maguire played 63 times during Southgate's time in charge, a total only bettered by Harry Kane (81), Kyle Walker (70), Jordan Pickford and John Stones (both 68).
Maguire was forced to miss the tournament having picked up an injury in May, forcing him to miss Manchester United's FA Cup success against Manchester City.
Euro 2024 was the first major tournament he has missed during his international career, having become a mainstay in central defence alongside Stones.
Maguire's 17 appearances at major tournaments saw him keep seven clean sheets, but he insisted that missing out on Euro 2024 was difficult for him to comprehend.
"To miss out was tough," said Maguire.
“It has been really frustrating, working all season to get myself mentally and physically at the top of my game and be in a position to feel I could really make a difference for Manchester United and my country."
SportsMax is the Caribbean sports channel of choice, committed to providing sporting content of the highest quality to the Caribbean, delivered by a team of highly innovative, passionate and qualified professionals.
(876) 619-7629
digitalmedia@sportsmax.tv
