Champions League final: How have Liverpool and Real Madrid evolved since 2018 in Kyiv?

By Sports Desk May 27, 2022

You could be forgiven for feeling a sense of deja vu when Liverpool take on Real Madrid in the Champions League final at the Stade de France on Saturday.

The two European giants faced off in 2018 in Kyiv, with Los Blancos running out 3-1 winners thanks to, among other things, a sensational Gareth Bale overhead kick.

Four years later Liverpool and Madrid ready to battle it out to be crowned kings of the continent, with 19 European Cups/Champions Leagues already between them.

Just how much have the two teams changed since then, though? Stats Perform has taken a look at both to see if there are any similarities and marked differences to expect in Paris.

From nearly men to trophy collectors

One of the many reasons defeat in Kyiv hurt for Liverpool was it would have not just been another Champions League success, but the first trophy won since Jurgen Klopp had taken over.

The German coach had been at Anfield since October 2015, and while there had been clear progress, it had not yet manifested in the form of silverware.

The idea that the loss was merely a bump in the road on the start of a journey has since been proven correct, as Liverpool have since hoovered up a Champions League, Premier League, UEFA Super Cup, FIFA Club World Cup, EFL Cup and FA Cup.

At the time, though, it may not have felt that inevitable given the Merseyside club went into the final having finished fourth in the league, 25 points behind champions Man City, having also been knocked out of the EFL Cup in the third round and the FA Cup in the fourth round.

As well as making the final, the 2017-18 season was memorable for the Reds acquiring one Mohamed Salah, who went on to score 44 goals in all competitions.

They lost Philippe Coutinho to Barcelona in the January transfer window, but signed Virgil van Dijk from Southampton to help out a troubled defence.

The team that started against Madrid included at least six players you would think will start in Paris in Trent Alexander-Arnold, Van Dijk, Andrew Robertson, Jordan Henderson, Salah and Sadio Mane, while James Milner and Roberto Firmino will at least be on the bench.

It is perhaps the additions made that will make the difference this time, most notably in goal.

Loris Karius suffered a concussion after an elbow to the head from Sergio Ramos that night, which could explain his bizarre performance after that where he threw the ball straight onto Karim Benzema's foot for Madrid's opener, before dropping the ball into the goal from a Bale shot for their third.

Brazil international Alisson is a significant upgrade on Karius.

Instead of the... shall we say... enigmatic Dejan Lovren, Van Dijk will be partnered by either Joel Matip or Ibrahima Konate, both of whom have performed well with the big Dutchman this season.

Should they be fit, Thiago Alcantara and Fabinho will play with Henderson in midfield instead of Milner and Georginio Wijnaldum, while Luis Diaz will almost certainly play alongside Mane and Salah in place of Firmino.

Klopp only made two changes off the bench that night, with Adam Lallana replacing the injured Salah in the first half, while Emre Can also arrived in the second half with little impact.

He will likely have players such as Firmino, Milner, Diogo Jota, Naby Keita and, for one last time, Divock Origi to make the difference if needed in the French capital.

But overall, how much have they changed as a team since that season?

In all competitions in 2017-18, Liverpool averaged 2.39 goals for and 1.11 goals against per game, while making 584.18 passes per game.

They created 2.26 big chances per game, attempted 62.19 long passes per game and won possession in the final third on average 4.94 times per game.

Compare that to this season, they have averaged slightly fewer goals for with 2.37 per game, though have conceded just 0.76 per game, and made 624.55 passes per game, suggesting they control matches more than they used to.

They have created 2.43 big chances per game, and make fewer long passes with 57.13 per game, so are also maybe not quite as direct.

One of the more interesting stats is that they have been winning possession in the final third on average 7.32 times per game this season, significantly more than they did four years ago, so Madrid will be wary of that.

Speaking to Stats Perform, former Liverpool player and assistant manager Phil Thompson - who was captain of the Reds when they beat Madrid in Paris to lift the European Cup in 1981 - said he feels their added experience will help them this time.

"They're better equipped all round," he said. "We're better defensively. The back four, the goalkeeper, I do think all round we're more experienced now in the way we play with Sadio, Mo Salah, and Luis Diaz has brought a different element to our game."

Madrid back as Champions League experts

Back in 2018, Zinedine Zidane guided Los Blancos to their 13th European Cup/Champions League, but otherwise it was a pretty ordinary campaign.

They finished third in LaLiga, 17 points behind the champions Barcelona. They were also knocked out of the Copa del Rey at the quarter-final stage by lowly Leganes.

They just had a knack in the Champions League, though, and remarkably won their fourth in five years.

Similarly to Liverpool, you would imagine at least five of their starting XI in Kyiv will also start in Paris, with Dani Carvajal, Casemiro, Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Benzema key men in Carlo Ancelotti's side.

Thibaut Courtois has replaced Keylor Navas in goal, while Eder Militao, David Alaba and Ferland Mendy will probably be the ones to take the places of Raphael Varane, Sergio Ramos and Marcelo.

It is up top where things have mainly changed though, and not just in personnel.

Isco has become a squad player, who will leave at the end of the season, while Cristiano Ronaldo has long since departed, paving the way for Vinicius Jr and Rodrygo to come in, while Benzema has drastically increased his output.

The France striker scored 12 goals in all competitions in 47 games in the 2017-18 season, but has bagged 44 in 45 this campaign.

As for the team overall, in 2017-18 they averaged just 2.14 goals for per game, and 0.91 against, creating 2.11 big chances per game.

Somewhat bizarrely, their goal averages both for and against are the same as Liverpool's were four years ago (2.39 goals for, 1.11 against per game), though they have increased their average of big chances created to 2.71 per game.

However, they have won LaLiga this season, in addition to the Supercopa de Espana, and somehow found their way past Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea and Manchester City to reach the final.

Looking at those numbers and what has been achieved since, it is fair to say that both teams have improved since their Kyiv meeting.

Klopp's men have gone from a relative also-ran in English football to one of the strongest teams in the world, and had it not been for City's incredible comeback against Aston Villa on Sunday, would be playing to complete a phenomenal and unprecedented quadruple on Saturday.

Madrid have taken back their place as the best in Spain, and whether it was through luck or determination, have toppled three of the best teams in the competition to make it here.

You would assume the match in Paris will be a closer affair than 2018, and as finals so often are, is likely to be decided by the fine margins.

With the strength of both teams, though, do not be surprised if this isn't the last time we are sat here preparing to do battle in Europe's showpiece club game in May.

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    Japan continued their unbeaten start to World Cup qualifying with a 4-0 victory over Indonesia on Friday.

    Two goals from the visitors in either half were enough to seal the three points and get them back to winning ways after a stalemate with Australia last time out.

    Ragnar Oratmangoen should have put Indonesia ahead, but he hesitated one-on-one with the goalkeeper, and Japan did not look back after that. They got a bit of fortune with their first goal, Justin Hubner deflecting a cross into his own net in the 35th minute.

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    Data Debrief: Clinically done

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    This weekend brings the match everyone has been waiting for the Women's Super League.

    Stamford Bridge will be the stage as Chelsea host Manchester City on Saturday in a heavyweight tussle that promises to give fans an early indication of where the title may be heading this season. 

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    Goals win Games… and Titles

    With the last title race coming down to goal difference in the final game of the season, City are clearly haunted by their inability to get across the line. Taylor and his players are determined not to see a repeat of that heartbreaking near miss in 2024-25.

    The City head coach told Opta Analyst exclusively in pre-season: "You would be surprised how strong it makes you and how mentally determined you become.

    "Of course, we will use that frustration, disappointment, to really use it as energy for this season."

    Banishing that nightmare is high on their agenda. They have scored 16 goals in just seven matches this season (2.2 per game), but this still represents a marginal underperformance of their underlying figures, given they have generated 16.59 xG (2.37 xG per game).

    However, if we compare City's attacking output to that from last season, it is clear they have endured a drop-off. In the WSL in 2023-24, City averaged 2.77 goals and 2.19 xG per game. Though they were eclipsed by Hayes' free-scoring Chelsea, they took more of their chances than anticipated based on the quality of opportunities they created.

    City successfully got 183 of their 423 shots on target last term (43.2%), whereas this season they have hit the target with 47 of their 125 attempts (37.6%). Their shot conversion rate has also dropped from 14.4% to 12.8% and their big-chance conversion rate has fallen from 41.67% (30/72) to 37.04% (10/27). 

     

    So there is still work to do for City if they are to match Chelsea's pace, with the Blues already boasting a goal difference eight better than that of their rivals.

    City might be able to point to some misfortune on that front, though, as their total xG figure is the highest in the league so far this term.

    With 23 goals, Chelsea have greatly overperformed their 13.76 xG, with that +9.24 overperformance by far the biggest in the competition. The Blues have been incredibly efficient, having the most shots on target (48) in the competition – one more than Man City (47) despite having 15 fewer shots overall. 

    The Blues' big-chance conversion rate of 60.87% is also the best in the WSL (14/23), as is their shot conversion rate (20.91%). By contrast, City's 12.8% shot conversion rate ranks fourth.

    Chelsea may have relied on Lauren James, Sam Kerr and Fran Kirby to provide the goals in previous seasons, but they have become a very different proposition under Bompastor. They have had 13 different goalscorers in the WSL this season, while City have only had six, ranking fourth, also behind Tottenham (eight) and Arsenal (seven).

    Shaw's Golden Touch 

    While City have not matched Chelsea's ruthlessness this season, that does not apply to last season's Golden Boot winner, Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw.

    She has seven goals in as many games this season, overperforming her league-high xG figure of 4.83 xG, and also leads the competition for shots (28) and shots on target (12).

    Shaw has been presented with nine big chances and has converted five of them, which is the highest conversion rate (55.56%) of the 13 players to have had more than three such opportunities in the league this term.

    Of players to have had at least 10 shots in the WSL, she also has the joint-best shot conversion rate (25%) – level with Nikita Parris (three goals from 12 shots) and Johanna Rytting Kaneryd (three goals from 12 shots).

    Since the beginning of last season, meanwhile, Shaw has scored 28 goals, at least 13 more than any other player in the competition (Elisabeth Terland is next on 15). 

     

    City were hoping their reliance on Shaw would be lessened when they swooped for the WSL's all-time leading scorer in Vivianne Miedema, but a recurring knee issue has left the former Arsenal star on the sidelines once more. Prior to her latest injury setback, Miedema had scored two goals in five games in all competitions for City.

    Shaw will have support from elsewhere, though. Lauren Hemp recently became the youngest player in WSL history to reach 50 goals and also leads the way for assists (five) and chances created (26) in the competition this season.

    However, despite her outstanding creative metrics, Hemp has underperformed her 3.26 xG, scoring twice from opportunities that should have resulted in at least one more goal.

    Hemp has struggled to convert her big chances this term, only putting away two of the eight that have fallen their way, though both Jessica Park (two goals from 1.79 xG) and Jill Roord (three goals from 2.34 xG) should offer more support to Shaw.

    New Boss, New Look

    It is fair to say Bompastor has taken to the Chelsea job like a duck to water, becoming just the second WSL manager to win her first six games at a new club, after Jonas Eidevall with Arsenal. No boss has ever started with seven consecutive WSL wins.

    The French coach has made a couple of key tweaks to Hayes' setup. Guro Reiten has been one major beneficiary, operating predominantly from a left-wing role (where she has played 68% of her minutes) but also being fielded centrally on occasion. 

     

    Reiten is Chelsea's leading scorer with four goals in six games, overperforming her 3.0 xG, while she also leads the Blues for shots (18) and chances created (12), providing two assists.
     
    Chelsea's young talent has also come to the fore under their new boss. Aggie Beever-Jones is having a big impact despite only making two WSL starts, netting three times.

    Only Reiten has had more shots than Beever-Jones' 14, while no Chelsea player has hit the target as many times as she has (nine). Beever-Jones has had a knack for being in the right place at the right time, converting two of her four big chances and averaging a goal every 83 minutes.
     
    Another player to find a new lease of life under Bompastor is Rytting Kaneryd, who leads all Chelsea players for goal contributions (five). The Sweden international also leads all of her team-mates for involvements in open-play shot-ending sequences, with 33.
     
    Sjoeke Nusken has also been particularly influential on both sides of the ball, creating 11 chances in open play while also attempting (20) and winning (13) more tackles than any of her team-mates.

     

    Timing is Everything

    One theme of Chelsea's season has been their ability to come out of the blocks fast and bury opponents early on, such as when they netted twice in the first 16 minutes of their 2-1 win at Arsenal. The Blues have scored 11 first-half goals in the WSL this season, more than any other team. Their 7.28 first-half xG is also the highest in the league, beating City's 6.78.

    Given their overall tally of 23 goals, it is no surprise that Chelsea have also scored the most second-half goals (12), with City second with 10. City have, however, been notably stronger in the second periods of games – often requiring late goals to earn results – and have the highest second-half xG (9.8), with Chelsea's second-half xG down at 6.5.

    So, Chelsea are often faster starters, but must be aware of City's ability to pull results out of the fire. Saturday's visitors have gained the most points from losing positions in the WSL this term (seven). Chelsea have not gained any points from losing positions, though that is, of course, because they are yet to trail at any point.

    After Chelsea's magnificent start to the campaign, the Opta supercomputer still views them as hot favourites to retain their crown. The Blues are given a huge 79.3% chance of winning the title compared to City's 19.9%, with Taylor's team finishing second again in 66.8% of our 2024-25 season simulations.

     

    The significance of this game, though, means those figures could drastically change after Saturday. Bompastor's team are given a 53.7% chance of emerging victorious, while City's hope of victory are rated at 22.5%.

    City would surely be content with a draw on the road, which would halt Chelsea's winning streak and maintain their advantage at the summit, and 23.7% of the supercomputer's pre-match simulations finished all square. 

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