Even when Jack Grealish charged into the penalty area in the 87th at the Santiago Bernabeu last week and saw his shot cleared off the line by Ferland Mendy, there seemed no way Manchester City wouldn't be in the Champions League final.
They were already 1-0 up on the night, 5-3 up on aggregate. Real Madrid had three minutes plus stoppage time to turn things around – even for a side that produced some memorable comebacks en route to the semi-finals, turning things around looked impossible.
Yet we all know how the tale unfolded in a matter of minutes, with City's Champions League aspirations dissolving for another season.
Over the course of the two legs, City were comfortably the better team and few would disagree with the idea that they're almost certainly better equipped than Madrid to stop Liverpool in the final.
City's failure served to highlight a key deficiency in their squad. Whether that's fair or not is up for debate, because they look destined to win the Premier League title again and no one would've questioned the legitimacy of them seeing off Madrid, but when the victor is led by the type of figure the loser is lacking, it's an easy conclusion to jump to.
Karim Benzema may not have been at his unplayable best in the second leg last week, but he won and converted the ultimately decisive penalty, and the effectiveness with which he led the line in the first leg ensured Madrid were still in with a shout upon the return to Spain.
City will now hope they have such a goalscoring talisman in Erling Haaland.
The club confirmed on Tuesday that Haaland will join at the end of the season, with City apparently set to pay £51.3million (€60m) to Borussia Dortmund for his transfer. Even when you consider the apparently significant agents' fees et cetera, it's difficult to see this as anything other than a bargain for City.
Of course, while the timing of the signing might frame it as a reaction to Champions League elimination, it's clearly not. Reports have suggested for weeks that the deal was virtually done and Haaland was going to follow in his father's footsteps by signing for City.
However, it's hard not to look at the deal through the prism of Champions League failure because of what will now be expected – rather than hoped for – with a player like Haaland in the team.
When trying to understand what has specifically gone wrong for City in the Champions League since Guardiola was hired, most people seem to have different opinions. Some might point to an apparent lack of on-field leaders, others highlight wastefulness at crucial moments, and of course there are many who have bemoaned Pep's dreaded "overthinking".
The idea of there being a lack of on-field leaders has always seemed wide of the mark, while no one can accuse Guardiola of overcomplicating his selections against Madrid – even if they did try to claim that, City were on course for the final until the 90th minute of the second leg.
Similarly, wastefulness is something most clubs can be accused of at one time or another and, in fact, across all the Champions League ties from which City have been eliminated under Guardiola, they have scored 17 times from 16.99 expected goals (xG). Granted, there were occasions where they didn't score as often as they should have, but over time it evens itself out.
Yet perhaps this is where Haaland can make the difference. Sure, City's xG has evened out over the unsuccessful ties in question, but with a striker as freakishly deadly as the Norwegian, there becomes a greater opportunity to finish chances that maybe you wouldn't generally expect to.
Haaland is a pure finisher unlike any other player in the world. Since his Bundesliga debut on January 18, 2020, he has scored 85 times from 69.7 xG across all competitions. Similarly, when excluding penalties he remains almost as potent, with 75 goals from 60.2 np-xG.
In both instances he has scored roughly 15 more goals than he should have based on the quality of his chances – among players with 30 or more goals over the same period, only Son Heung-min (16.1 and 16.5) can boast better xG differential figures. Again, ordinarily you'd expect this to even out over time, with such form usually unsustainable – but when you make the implausible look routine, this is the output you can produce.
One thing you cannot accuse City of is being ineffective when it comes to controlling football matches and creating chances – they wouldn't be about to claim a third Premier League title in four years if they were.
But in knockout ties when there is such a limited amount of time to respond to setbacks or make amends for certain mistakes, whether that's defensive or in front of goal, the value of the greatest strikers can shine through even more: Benzema showed that against City.
While there are likely to be stylistic compatibility questions to be asked regarding City and Haaland, particularly given the Premier League champions-elect haven't really played with an out-and-out striker for a couple of years now, they suddenly have arguably the finest finisher of his generation in their arsenal.
If Haaland isn't the final piece of the puzzle in City's quest for a maiden Champions League crown, Guardiola might as well give up.
Keith Watson keen to highlight Ross County’s form as they fight for survival
Keith Watson is adamant relegation-threatened Ross County can take heart from their own recent form as they bid to topple free-scoring Championship promotion hopefuls Partick Thistle in this week’s Premiership play-off.
The Staggies must defeat the Jags over two legs to survive in the top flight for a fifth consecutive season after defeat in their final match at Kilmarnock on Sunday consigned them to 11th place.
Much has been made of the fact Partick have scored an impressive 16 goals in their four play-off matches so far against Queen’s Park and Ayr.
But Watson was keen to point out that his own side have been in good enough form to move off the foot of the Premiership table over the past month despite being four points adrift and seemingly doomed to bottom spot with five games to play.
“They are obviously on a decent run, because they have had to win games to get to the final,” the County captain said when asked whether Partick’s momentum might give them an edge.
“But going into the split we were four points adrift at the bottom and we just fell short on the last day, so I don’t think we are on poor form by any means.
“We have been picking up results recently, it’s not as if we have not been playing very well.
“The boys know what’s at stake. We need to try and keep as upbeat as we can, we can’t dwell on (finishing second bottom) too much.
“Anything can happen, and we want to make sure we stay in this league.
Although he admits Sunday’s 3-1 defeat at Killie was “a sore one”, Watson believes the form and “fight” his team have shown recently will stand them in good stead for the play-offs, with the first leg at Firhill this Thursday.
“Going into the split we were four points adrift, and maybe a lot of people wrote us off a wee bit,” said the Staggies defender.
“But we just keep on fighting. We don’t know when we are down and we don’t know when we are beaten.
“We showed that against St Johnstone when we were 2-0 down and we came back (to draw 3-3 last Wednesday).
“There is plenty fight and effort in the team. We’ve just got to make sure we take that into the last two games and show the same effort and fight we have shown to get back involved again.
“We’ve got a few days to prepare and do our work on Partick. The boys are disappointed, but we are not down. We have got two games to stay in the league.
“We will be going into that first leg on Thursday really looking forward to it. We’ve got two games to save our season, and we will be giving it everything we’ve got.”
Kyle Vassell believes Kilmarnock are ready to make their presence felt at the “right end of the table” next season after they secured their cinch Premiership survival on the last day of a challenging first season back in the top flight.
The 30-year-old has loved his time at Killie since initially joining in January on a short-term deal, so much so that he recently agreed to a two-year contract extension keeping him at Rugby Park until 2025.
Vassell is hugely excited about the future after notching his sixth goal of the campaign in Sunday’s campaign-ending 3-1 win over relegation rivals Ross County in front of a buoyant home support.
“I have two more years of this and hopefully we can get better as a club and get up the other end of the league next season,” said the striker.
“I knew we had what it takes to stay up, but you never know in football. They say it averages out over the season and the teams that are down there and the ones up the top deserve to be where they are.
“But you get games like St Johnstone, where we had a goal disallowed for something I’d never seen before then we had a penalty not given.
“I genuinely believe we never had much luck for a few months, but we got through it and made sure we didn’t rely on luck and that our performances were there.
“We got a great win last Wednesday at Dundee United and another one against Ross County.”
Asked if he expected Kilmarnock to kick on under Derek McInnes next term, Vassell said: “Absolutely. That’s why I’m staying, because I believe in what he’s trying to build. I want to be part of what he’s building.
“You see the fans, they were amazing against Ross County, from the start. The second half was probably one of the most enjoyable, even after their goal, because the fans were singing everyone’s name and the atmosphere was so good for us as players.
“If we can get as many of them in the stadium next season we will kick on. A day like that gives you a glimpse of what can happen but it’s on us. We have to play well to make them want to come. We have to get them in the stand.
“If we take that on board in pre-season and into the beginning of the season and make sure we’re at the right end of the table, I’m sure even more will come because the fans are there.”
Man Utd boss Erik ten Hag says Harry Maguire has decision to make on his future
Erik ten Hag has hinted that Harry Maguire may leave Manchester United this summer if the defender decides he is not happy with a lack of playing time.
The club captain played only 16 Premier League games this season and has been culpable of a number of high-profile errors, most recently in last month’s Europa League exit to Sevilla.
Ten Hag has consistently praised the influence of the 30-year-old – who joined in 2018 from Leicester for £80million, a world-record fee for a defender, and is under contract until 2025 – around Old Trafford, even when he has endured long spells out of the team.
When fit, Lisandro Martinez and Raphael Varane have been the preferred central-defensive partnership in the former Ajax boss’s first campaign, with Luke Shaw sometimes filling in, as the team racked up 17 top-flight clean sheets – the most of any side in the division.
Now the manager has made the strongest suggestion yet that Maguire’s time at United could be coming to an end.
“No-one would be happy with this situation,” Ten Hag said in an interview with The Times. “He is not as well. He trains always on best levels, so with 100 per cent effort.
“So he handles that situation well and he’s in that manner and in his captaincy he’s important for the squad.
“But he has high competition there (at centre-back) with Raphael Varane, who’s fantastic.”
He added: “Let’s say I’m happy he’s here and when we needed him he did his job. But it’s also a decision he has to make.”
Ten Hag also said that David De Gea, who himself has made costly mistakes including in Seville and in the recent defeat to West Ham, will remain at the club, though may not be guaranteed a place in the team.
The team finished with the third best defensive record in the Premier League with 43 goals conceded, bettered only by Newcastle and champions Manchester City. De Gea was ever-present and collected the Golden Glove for the goalkeeper with the most clean sheets.
Asked if the 32-year-old would still be at United next season, Ten Hag replied: “Yes, but I will not say he will always be my number one because in a club like United there must be competition in all positions.”
United face City at Wembley on Saturday in the first all-Manchester FA Cup final, looking to foil their city rivals’ bid the match the Treble won by Sir Alex Ferguson’s team in 1999.
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