Even when Jack Grealish charged into the penalty area in the 87th at the Santiago Bernabeu last week and saw his shot cleared off the line by Ferland Mendy, there seemed no way Manchester City wouldn't be in the Champions League final.
They were already 1-0 up on the night, 5-3 up on aggregate. Real Madrid had three minutes plus stoppage time to turn things around – even for a side that produced some memorable comebacks en route to the semi-finals, turning things around looked impossible.
Yet we all know how the tale unfolded in a matter of minutes, with City's Champions League aspirations dissolving for another season.
Over the course of the two legs, City were comfortably the better team and few would disagree with the idea that they're almost certainly better equipped than Madrid to stop Liverpool in the final.
City's failure served to highlight a key deficiency in their squad. Whether that's fair or not is up for debate, because they look destined to win the Premier League title again and no one would've questioned the legitimacy of them seeing off Madrid, but when the victor is led by the type of figure the loser is lacking, it's an easy conclusion to jump to.
Karim Benzema may not have been at his unplayable best in the second leg last week, but he won and converted the ultimately decisive penalty, and the effectiveness with which he led the line in the first leg ensured Madrid were still in with a shout upon the return to Spain.
City will now hope they have such a goalscoring talisman in Erling Haaland.
The club confirmed on Tuesday that Haaland will join at the end of the season, with City apparently set to pay £51.3million (€60m) to Borussia Dortmund for his transfer. Even when you consider the apparently significant agents' fees et cetera, it's difficult to see this as anything other than a bargain for City.
Of course, while the timing of the signing might frame it as a reaction to Champions League elimination, it's clearly not. Reports have suggested for weeks that the deal was virtually done and Haaland was going to follow in his father's footsteps by signing for City.
However, it's hard not to look at the deal through the prism of Champions League failure because of what will now be expected – rather than hoped for – with a player like Haaland in the team.
When trying to understand what has specifically gone wrong for City in the Champions League since Guardiola was hired, most people seem to have different opinions. Some might point to an apparent lack of on-field leaders, others highlight wastefulness at crucial moments, and of course there are many who have bemoaned Pep's dreaded "overthinking".
The idea of there being a lack of on-field leaders has always seemed wide of the mark, while no one can accuse Guardiola of overcomplicating his selections against Madrid – even if they did try to claim that, City were on course for the final until the 90th minute of the second leg.
Similarly, wastefulness is something most clubs can be accused of at one time or another and, in fact, across all the Champions League ties from which City have been eliminated under Guardiola, they have scored 17 times from 16.99 expected goals (xG). Granted, there were occasions where they didn't score as often as they should have, but over time it evens itself out.
Yet perhaps this is where Haaland can make the difference. Sure, City's xG has evened out over the unsuccessful ties in question, but with a striker as freakishly deadly as the Norwegian, there becomes a greater opportunity to finish chances that maybe you wouldn't generally expect to.
Haaland is a pure finisher unlike any other player in the world. Since his Bundesliga debut on January 18, 2020, he has scored 85 times from 69.7 xG across all competitions. Similarly, when excluding penalties he remains almost as potent, with 75 goals from 60.2 np-xG.
In both instances he has scored roughly 15 more goals than he should have based on the quality of his chances – among players with 30 or more goals over the same period, only Son Heung-min (16.1 and 16.5) can boast better xG differential figures. Again, ordinarily you'd expect this to even out over time, with such form usually unsustainable – but when you make the implausible look routine, this is the output you can produce.
One thing you cannot accuse City of is being ineffective when it comes to controlling football matches and creating chances – they wouldn't be about to claim a third Premier League title in four years if they were.
But in knockout ties when there is such a limited amount of time to respond to setbacks or make amends for certain mistakes, whether that's defensive or in front of goal, the value of the greatest strikers can shine through even more: Benzema showed that against City.
While there are likely to be stylistic compatibility questions to be asked regarding City and Haaland, particularly given the Premier League champions-elect haven't really played with an out-and-out striker for a couple of years now, they suddenly have arguably the finest finisher of his generation in their arsenal.
If Haaland isn't the final piece of the puzzle in City's quest for a maiden Champions League crown, Guardiola might as well give up.
'If we get relegated, I will be here', says Guardiola amid Man City charges
Pep Guardiola insisted he would stay with Manchester City even if the club is relegated as punishment for their alleged breaches of the Premier League's financial rules.
Guardiola, who joined City in 2016, signed a new two-year contract extension on Friday, ending speculation over his current deal that was due to expire at the end of the season.
The deal itself will take Guardiola's tenure at the club to over a decade, making him City's longest-serving manager since Les McDowall in 1963.
During his time in charge, the Spaniard has won 18 trophies, including six Premier League titles and their maiden Champions League crown last year.
He also boasts a 72.04% win percentage across all competitions, which is unsurprisingly the highest of any full-time City manager in history.
However, a hearing into Man City's 115 charges for allegedly breaking the Premier League's rules is also under way, but Guardiola said he will stay regardless of the outcome.
"I said that six months ago. If we get relegated, I will be here and next year we're going to come up to the Premier League. I knew it then, I feel it now," Guardiola said.
He also revealed that he agreed to fresh terms at the Etihad in less than two hours.
"I felt I should stay here. Of course, because they want me. For obvious reasons, for the results and because we've known each other for a long time," he added.
"All my decisions have been like that, what I feel in the moment. I don't pre-convince, I wait. I decided to stay here and in just two hours we did it [agreed the contract]."
City welcome Tottenham to the Etihad this weekend on the back of four consecutive defeats - Guardiola's longest losing run in his entire managerial career.
The Citizens last lost more consecutively between March and April 2006 under Stuart Pearce (six – the fifth game of which was also against Tottenham).
They have also won just three of their last 10 top-flight games against Tottenham (D2 L5) and are looking to win consecutive meetings with them for the first time since April 2019.
Despite their run of form, Guardiola was quick to point out his side's recent success, most notably becoming the first team to win four consecutive Premier League titles.
"When you are here for nine years, with a long time at one club, you live all the scenarios, all the situations," Guardiola said.
"You're able to lose four games in a row, but at the same time, you're able to win four Premier Leagues in a row.
"The difference is that most of the teams are able to lose four games in a row in different competitions, but just one team won four Premier Leagues in a row. So it happened.
"Did it happen in one season? No. When you've been somewhere eight or nine years, yeah, both sides of the run can happen."
Simeone grateful to hit landmark 700th game with Atletico
Diego Simeone says he is grateful to be managing his 700th game at Atletico Madrid, even as rumours swirl about his future.
The Argentine will hit the landmark on Saturday when Atletico host Alaves in LaLiga.
Simeone is nearing 13 years in charge of Atletico having taken the job in December 2011, and the 54-year-old has since transformed the side from perennial underdogs to dangerous rivals to Spain's big two - Real Madrid and Barcelona.
The club has won two league titles, one Copa del Rey and two Europa League trophies, while they also reached the Champions League final twice - losing to city rivals Madrid on both occasions.
However, they remain a force to be reckoned with and Simeone's record of 326 clean sheets is a testament to his side's defensive prowess.
"First of all, I'd like to thank all the people who worked with me on the coaching staff and who are not with us today, all the players who made it possible for me to be at the club for so long," Simeone told reporters.
"Miguel Angel (CEO) and Enrique Cerezo (president) for supporting me on the path and trying to follow it together, and our fans for the respect they have always shown me.
"I am absolutely grateful to Atletico, I am very happy to have been able to enjoy these 700 games."
However, Atletico's start to the season has led to questions being raised in the media about his future.
Atletico are third in LaLiga, seven points behind leaders Barcelona after five draws, while they are a lowly 23rd in the Champions League halfway through the new group stage.
But Simeone has a contract until June 2027 and is not bothered by speculation, saying: "I think about Alaves, I don't focus on anything else... I think about how to resolve an important match."
Atletico went into the international break with four straight wins in all competitions, and if they win on Saturday, it will be Simeone's 300th in LaLiga. He believes the next eight games will be crucial.
"Alaves is coming, we know them. They play direct, with speed... and a lot of guys we know because they have been here [at Atletico]," Simeone said.
"We need to take the game to where we think we can hurt them. It will be important to play at a high pace and that's what we'll be looking for."
Holders Spain drawn against the Netherlands in Nations League quarters
Reigning champions Spain have been drawn against the Netherlands in the quarter-finals of the Nations League.
Spain won five of their six games in Group A4, and will face the Dutch for the first time in a competitive match since their 5-1 defeat at the World Cup in 2014.
France, who emerged victorious in the 2020-21 edition of the Nations League, will take on Croatia in a repeat of their World Cup final meeting six years ago.
Germany will face Italy while Portugal, who were the inaugural winners of the tournament, were drawn against Denmark, with the two-legged fixtures taking place in March.
The semi-finals are single legs which will get underway in June, with the third-place play-off and final to be played three days later.
European champions Spain, Portugal and Germany topped their groups without losing a game to go into the seeded teams' pot along with France.
The winner of Spain's enticing tie with the Netherlands will play either France or Croatia, while Cristiano Ronaldo will be looking to inspire Portugal to a second title.
Only Sweden's Viktor Gyokeres (nine), Norway's Erling Haaland (seven) and Romania's Razvan Marin (six) have scored more goals in this year's edition than Ronaldo (five).
Scotland, who finished third in Group A1 behind Portugal and Croatia, will face Greece in a Nations League play-off to remain in the top tier of the competition.
The other play-off games will see Turkey face Hungary, Ukraine take on Belgium, and Austria square off against Serbia in March.
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