Even when Jack Grealish charged into the penalty area in the 87th at the Santiago Bernabeu last week and saw his shot cleared off the line by Ferland Mendy, there seemed no way Manchester City wouldn't be in the Champions League final.
They were already 1-0 up on the night, 5-3 up on aggregate. Real Madrid had three minutes plus stoppage time to turn things around – even for a side that produced some memorable comebacks en route to the semi-finals, turning things around looked impossible.
Yet we all know how the tale unfolded in a matter of minutes, with City's Champions League aspirations dissolving for another season.
Over the course of the two legs, City were comfortably the better team and few would disagree with the idea that they're almost certainly better equipped than Madrid to stop Liverpool in the final.
City's failure served to highlight a key deficiency in their squad. Whether that's fair or not is up for debate, because they look destined to win the Premier League title again and no one would've questioned the legitimacy of them seeing off Madrid, but when the victor is led by the type of figure the loser is lacking, it's an easy conclusion to jump to.
Karim Benzema may not have been at his unplayable best in the second leg last week, but he won and converted the ultimately decisive penalty, and the effectiveness with which he led the line in the first leg ensured Madrid were still in with a shout upon the return to Spain.
City will now hope they have such a goalscoring talisman in Erling Haaland.
The club confirmed on Tuesday that Haaland will join at the end of the season, with City apparently set to pay £51.3million (€60m) to Borussia Dortmund for his transfer. Even when you consider the apparently significant agents' fees et cetera, it's difficult to see this as anything other than a bargain for City.
Of course, while the timing of the signing might frame it as a reaction to Champions League elimination, it's clearly not. Reports have suggested for weeks that the deal was virtually done and Haaland was going to follow in his father's footsteps by signing for City.
However, it's hard not to look at the deal through the prism of Champions League failure because of what will now be expected – rather than hoped for – with a player like Haaland in the team.
When trying to understand what has specifically gone wrong for City in the Champions League since Guardiola was hired, most people seem to have different opinions. Some might point to an apparent lack of on-field leaders, others highlight wastefulness at crucial moments, and of course there are many who have bemoaned Pep's dreaded "overthinking".
The idea of there being a lack of on-field leaders has always seemed wide of the mark, while no one can accuse Guardiola of overcomplicating his selections against Madrid – even if they did try to claim that, City were on course for the final until the 90th minute of the second leg.
Similarly, wastefulness is something most clubs can be accused of at one time or another and, in fact, across all the Champions League ties from which City have been eliminated under Guardiola, they have scored 17 times from 16.99 expected goals (xG). Granted, there were occasions where they didn't score as often as they should have, but over time it evens itself out.
Yet perhaps this is where Haaland can make the difference. Sure, City's xG has evened out over the unsuccessful ties in question, but with a striker as freakishly deadly as the Norwegian, there becomes a greater opportunity to finish chances that maybe you wouldn't generally expect to.
Haaland is a pure finisher unlike any other player in the world. Since his Bundesliga debut on January 18, 2020, he has scored 85 times from 69.7 xG across all competitions. Similarly, when excluding penalties he remains almost as potent, with 75 goals from 60.2 np-xG.
In both instances he has scored roughly 15 more goals than he should have based on the quality of his chances – among players with 30 or more goals over the same period, only Son Heung-min (16.1 and 16.5) can boast better xG differential figures. Again, ordinarily you'd expect this to even out over time, with such form usually unsustainable – but when you make the implausible look routine, this is the output you can produce.
One thing you cannot accuse City of is being ineffective when it comes to controlling football matches and creating chances – they wouldn't be about to claim a third Premier League title in four years if they were.
But in knockout ties when there is such a limited amount of time to respond to setbacks or make amends for certain mistakes, whether that's defensive or in front of goal, the value of the greatest strikers can shine through even more: Benzema showed that against City.
While there are likely to be stylistic compatibility questions to be asked regarding City and Haaland, particularly given the Premier League champions-elect haven't really played with an out-and-out striker for a couple of years now, they suddenly have arguably the finest finisher of his generation in their arsenal.
If Haaland isn't the final piece of the puzzle in City's quest for a maiden Champions League crown, Guardiola might as well give up.
FC Dallas v Houston Dynamo: Arriola says hosts must pay supporters back
Midfielder Paul Arriola says FC Dallas need to start paying their supporters back in Saturday's Texas derby against the Houston Dynamo, having failed to impress in the early stages of the season.
Dallas sit 13th in the Western Conference standings with just five points from eight matches in 2024, their only victory coming against the San Jose Earthquakes in their season opener.
They have only taken two points from seven matches since then, putting head coach Nico Estevez under pressure.
However, Arriola says a clash with their biggest rivals at Toyota Stadium represents a chance to put things right.
"Our fans have been great all season, we haven't shown up for them. It is motivation for us to go and beat Houston on Saturday and obtain three points," he said.
Dallas were beaten 2-1 by the Colorado Rapids last time out, leading Estevez to question his players' character.
"We turned up with fear, lacking in determination and character," the Dallas boss said after that match.
"It is very difficult to play like that because Colorado are one of the hardest working teams in the league on both sides of the ball."
Houston, meanwhile, are preparing for a second straight meeting with a state rival, having suffered a 1-0 home defeat to Austin FC – their third loss of the year – last week.
Star midfielder Hector Herrera made his first appearance of the season from the bench in that match, playing 30 minutes after recovering from a groin injury.
Head coach Ben Olsen said of the Mexican's return: "You can see when he comes on the field, the game changes for the better in some areas.
"Right after he came on, the pressure was turned up on them. We got into so many dangerous spots, but still that connection in the box just wasn't there."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
FC Dallas – Petar Musa
Musa is the only Dallas player with multiple goals to his name in MLS this season, having netted his second goal of 2024 in last week's loss to Colorado.
Can he provide attacking inspiration for a team with just seven goals in eight games this year?
Houston Dynamo – Hector Herrera
While it remains to be seen whether Herrera is ready for a start, he could have a sizeable impact upon his return to action.
Last season, the Mexican led all Houston players for chances created (77), passes into the final third (835) and assists (13) in MLS play.
MATCH PREDICTION – FC DALLAS WIN
Dallas have made their second-worst start to an MLS campaign, only taking fewer than five points by this stage of a season when they earned four in 2009. They did, however, go on to make the playoffs that year.
With home advantage on their side, perhaps things will start to turn on Saturday. The Dynamo haven't won consecutive away MLS matches within a single season for almost 11 years, and they won their last road game 2-1 against Minnesota United.
Dallas tend to turn up for the derby, having gone unbeaten through their last 13 regular-season home matches against Houston (eight wins, five draws) in a run which stretches back to September 2011.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
FC Dallas – 44.6%
Houston Dynamo – 26.5%
Draw – 28.9%
Guardiola insists Man City share same title hunger as challengers
Pep Guardiola insists Manchester City share the same hunger to lift the Premier League trophy as their title rivals, warning perfection may still be needed for the champions to retain their crown.
It has been a mixed week for City's rivals thus far, with Arsenal thrashing Chelsea 5-0 on Tuesday before Liverpool suffered a surprise 2-0 defeat in Wednesday's Merseyside derby at Everton.
Those results mean the Gunners sit four points clear of City and Liverpool lead the champions by one, but with two games in hand, the title race is still very much in City's hands.
They go to Brighton and Hove Albion on Thursday before facing Nottingham Forest on Sunday, and Guardiola still thinks even the slightest slip-up could prove costly.
Asked whether City need to win their six remaining games to win the title, Guardiola said: "Yes, absolutely. They gave us a chance, with the fact they lost last week to Aston Villa and Crystal Palace.
"But we knew what we had to do before those games, and now we have to win all games so that at the end, we have it in our hands to retain our title.
"Nothing changes. The fact is, we knew what we had to do before, and now nothing has changed."
Guardiola was then asked whether City are as motivated to win the title as their rivals, having lifted the trophy in five of their seven seasons under him to date.
He said: "I would not be here [if not]. There are so many games, and to be in this position after what we have done in the past, it would not be possible [without the desire].
"We know the difficulty is extreme, and it will remain difficult because we have tough games coming up. We go one game at a time, and we know that if we lose, it will be so tough to retain the title.
"Last Saturday proved the many difficulties we have, especially the schedule and recovery time after the game against [Real] Madrid. The players were unbelievable."
Guardiola hit out at the busy nature of the schedule after Saturday's FA Cup semi-final win over Chelsea, saying he couldn't understand how his players had managed to perform just three days after their penalty shoot-out defeat to Madrid.
Those comments have sparked renewed debate about the football calendar, and Guardiola was asked whether elite clubs had a right to complain while organising money-spinning pre-season tours around the globe.
"Yeah, but we have to do it," he said. "We have to pay the salaries of the players and the manager, and the club has fans all around the world who want to see us. They are an income for us.
"It's not easy, but we have to get resources. I would love to say don't go to another continent to play, have another week of holiday, and then train here. But we have to understand the club.
"It's not just Man City. Every club needs those financial resources to be sustainable. Now that we've won a lot, for many years, we have a lot of supporters. That's why it's necessary to do, and you have to adapt.
"But that is not the reason why [he complained]. The reason is that the schedule is so tight. I'm sorry, it's not."
Xavi commits U-turn and elects to stay at Barcelona
Barcelona head coach Xavi will continue in his role next season after an unexpected reversal of his decision to leave at the end of the 2023-24 campaign, according to widespread reports.
The former Barcelona midfielder announced in January that he would walk away from the job at the end of the current season, even though his contract was due to run until the end of the following term.
Xavi acknowledged the Barcelona role had taken its toll but reportedly changed his plans after a meeting with Blaugrana president Joan Laporta on Wednesday.
The 44-year-old was initially appointed as Barca coach in 2021 before leading the LaLiga giants to the top-flight title in the 2022-23 campaign.
Xavi's initial announcement of his intentions to depart Barcelona came after a tough period following defeats to Girona, Real Madrid and Athletic Club before revealing the news in the aftermath of a 5-3 loss to Villarreal.
The Blaugrana turned their fortunes around after that decision became public, though, going 13 games unbeaten across all competitions.
Unsurprisingly, that run encouraged Laporta, vice president Rafa Yuste and sporting director Deco to plead with Xavi to continue until the end of his agreed contract.
Though that undefeated streak ended with a 4-1 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain that dumped Barcelona out of the Champions League quarter-finals, Xavi has now agreed to stay in his role.
The league title is almost out of reach this term, however, as Real Madrid moved 11 points clear of second-placed Barca with Sunday's 3-2 Clasico victory.
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