As the 2021-22 Premier League season enters its final weeks, plenty remains for the taking – not least the thrilling title race between Liverpool and reigning champions Manchester City.
Both teams are in imperious form and, while City lead the way by a single point heading into the weekend, one slip might be all it takes.
Chelsea seem relatively secure in third place, but behind them the battle for the final Champions League spot is raging on. Just two points separate north London rivals Arsenal and Tottenham, who meet in a potentially decisive derby in mid-May.
Manchester United have played two games more than those two sides and look like they will have to settle for sixth, assuming they can fend off West Ham.
At the bottom, Everton are in real danger of losing their Premier League status for the first time but will hold out hope in their dogfight against Burnley and Leeds United, though Watford and Norwich City appear destined for the drop.
But just how will it all unfold? Well, using the Stats Perform League Prediction Model, we can try and forecast the final standings.
Created by Stats Perform AI using Opta data, the model has analysed the division to assign percentages to potential outcomes for each club.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on teams' attacking and defensive qualities, which considers four years' worth of results, with weighting based on recency and the quality of opposition. The rest of the matches are then simulated 10,000 times to calculate the likelihood of each outcome.
Let's take a look...
PEP PIPS KLOPP TO THE POST... AGAIN
City won the Premier League title by a margin of just one point in the 2018-19 campaign. The gap has been much wider over the past two seasons, with Liverpool triumphing in 2020 and City winning last year.
But just like in 2019, the model suggests Liverpool will fall just short once again, with City predicted to stay on top. It gives Pep Guardiola's team a 66 per cent chance of winning their fourth title in five seasons, with the Reds given a 34 per cent chance.
Neither side are predicted to drop out of the top two – that seems a safe bet. Liverpool have a tough trip to in-form Newcastle United on Saturday, while City face Leeds United.
Newcastle will then have the chance to have another say in the title race when they visit City on May 8, with trips to Wolves and West Ham coming for the leaders before they round off their domestic season against Steven Gerrard's Aston Villa.
Liverpool, who also face Villa along with Spurs, Southampton and Wolves, will be wanting a favour from their club great on the last day of the season if they are to prove the model wrong.
GUNNERS CLINCH CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PLACE
Chelsea, according to the model, have a 98.7 chance of staying in third place, and are certain to be playing in UEFA's elite competition next season.
Below them, it is predicted that Arsenal will just nip into the top four rather than Spurs. Mikel Arteta's team have a 75.2 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League, and just 24.8 of finishing in a Europa League place.
While Stats Perform AI only gives Arsenal a minuscule opportunity of taking third off Chelsea, they have a 73.9 per cent chance of securing fourth place and featuring in the Champions League for the first time since 2016-17.
It seems likely that much will be decided on May 12, when Spurs welcome Arsenal to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Antonio Conte's team are predicted to finish fifth (72.4 per cent), and only have a 24.7 per cent likelihood of clinching fourth.
United are forecast to finish sixth (65 per cent), albeit there is the possibility they could even end 2021-22 in seventh. That position, however, seems set to be filled by West Ham, who have to win against Eintracht Frankfurt next week to keep their hopes of a Europa League triumph alive – success in that competition would take them into the Champions League, regardless of where they finish domestically.
TOFFEES CHAMPIONSHIP-BOUND
It has been a dismal season for Everton, who head into Sunday's clash with Frank Lampard's former club Chelsea sitting in the bottom three for the first time since 2019 (when, ironically, they beat a Chelsea side managed by Lampard).
Lampard has taken 10 points from his 12 games in charge, and they are now predicted to finish in 18th place. The model gives them a 29.8 per cent chance of escaping the drop and finishing 17th and just a 17.4 per cent likelihood of coming 16th. Their run-in includes three away games, and Everton have the worst away record in the competition – 12 of their 19 defeats coming on the road and they have taken just six points on their travels all season.
Burnley sit two points clear of Everton in 17th after two successive victories and are given a 39.4 per cent chance of staying put, although the likelihood of the Clarets' finishing 18th is not dissimilar (36.5 per cent).
Leeds have tough fixtures against City, Arsenal and Chelsea coming up before they host Brighton and Hove Albion and visit Brentford, though Stats Perform AI gives them only a 12.9 per cent chance of relegation.
Watford are heavily predicted to stay put in 19th too, with Norwich given a 67.4 per cent probability of finishing bottom – the model reckons they have a 0.1 per cent chance of avoiding the drop.
Nagelsmann: Football must take inspiration from NBA, NFL over schedule
Germany coach Julian Nagelsmann says football's decision-makers must introduce longer breaks between competitions, with players threatening to strike over the packed schedule.
Debates over fixture congestion at the elite level have intensified in recent months, with FIFA's decision to organise an expanded Club World Cup a particularly thorny issue.
The inaugural 32-team tournament – which will be held in the United States at the end of the club season – will add another seven matches to some teams' fixture lists, while UEFA has also added two extra matches to the first phase of the Champions League.
Manchester City midfielder Rodri recently talked up the prospect of players taking strike action over a lack of rest time, but Nagelsmann does not envisage the number of games being reduced.
Speaking ahead of Friday's Nations League clash with Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Germany boss called on organisers to look to American sports for inspiration when it comes to recovery times.
"I have often said that I won't complain about the calendar. A lot of matches are financing this sport," Nagelsmann said at his pre-match press conference.
"You have to have a healthy balance. I don't think there will be fewer games in the future.
"There will be more matches and we should be talking about how to structure the breaks [between competitions]."
Pointing to the way the NBA and NFL manage player workloads, he added: "NBA players play 85 games or so but then have a long break.
"The NFL has a long break. We don't have that in football. The players just don't get any break."
Koeman urges Netherlands to maintain positive Nations League start against Hungary
Ronald Koeman can see "the bar going up in training" as he challenged the Netherlands to build on their momentum against Hungary.
The Oranje, who reached the Euro 2024 semi-finals, have made an unbeaten start to their Nations League Group campaign with four points from their opening two Group A3 matches.
After opening with a 5-2 victory over Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Dutch then played out a 2-2 draw with Germany.
Next up for Koeman's side is a trip to the Puskas Arena to face Hungary on Friday, and the head coach wants his players to keep building on the positive aspects of their performances so far.
"I've showed the players what was good and why it was good. The football was good," he told reporters during his pre-match press conference.
"We always had depth in our game, created many chances and the transitions were very good. I want us to keep that up. The energy was also good, and I saw that this week in training, too.
"I see that the bar is going up in the training. There is a lot of competition for places. We've had quite a few injuries at the back and in midfield, which gives others a chance."
The Netherlands will be the favourites to take all three points, but Koeman is not underestimating the Magyars, who defeated England twice and Germany during the last edition of the Nations League.
"To be honest, I was quite surprised that Hungary had a good chance of reaching the final four," he added.
"They still have many of the same players. I don't understand why their recent results have not been as impressive, but we should not think that we are just easily going to win this."
'He's an inspiration for all of us' - Sabalenka salutes 'legend' Nadal
Aryna Sabalenka paid tribute to "legend" Rafael Nadal, acknowledging the retiring Spaniard is "an inspiration to all of us".
The 22-time major winner announced on Thursday via a video on his social media platforms that he will retire from competitive tennis following next month's Davis Cup finals in Malaga.
Nadal's decision - generally expected given his injury struggles in recent years - has been met with widespread tributes throughout the tennis and sporting world.
And WTA number two Sabalenka - the reigning Australian and US Open champion - was the latest big name to salute the 14-time French Open winner, who was dubbed "the King of Clay".
"He's an inspiration for all of us, for the next generation, for current players. He's a legend," Sabalenka told WTA.
"As he said, everything has a beginning and an end. We are all going to be there. I'm really happy for what he was able to achieve. He was inspiration for everyone. He's a hard worker. He definitely had so much love for this sport."
Sabalenka is through to her 11th successive WTA quarter-final at the Wuhan Open after coming from behind to beat Yulia Putintseva 1-6 6-4 6-0.
The reigning champion recovered from losing the opening set - plus a break point at 4-3 down in the second set - to claim his 14th straight victory in Wuhan.
"In the first set, I was all over the place," she added. "I'm really glad that I was able to put myself together in the second set and things clicked.
"In that game [the eighth in the second set], I was just trying to cool myself down and just to remind myself to keep trying, keep fighting.
"You have to work for it, you have to run, you have to play the point, build the point, find the right shot, then go for it, not rush things. I was just having that conversation in my head all the time.
"After that game, I felt like something clicked. The return was better. The movement was better. The decisions I was making were much better. I felt like that was really the turning point in the match."
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