As the 2021-22 Premier League season enters its final weeks, plenty remains for the taking – not least the thrilling title race between Liverpool and reigning champions Manchester City.
Both teams are in imperious form and, while City lead the way by a single point heading into the weekend, one slip might be all it takes.
Chelsea seem relatively secure in third place, but behind them the battle for the final Champions League spot is raging on. Just two points separate north London rivals Arsenal and Tottenham, who meet in a potentially decisive derby in mid-May.
Manchester United have played two games more than those two sides and look like they will have to settle for sixth, assuming they can fend off West Ham.
At the bottom, Everton are in real danger of losing their Premier League status for the first time but will hold out hope in their dogfight against Burnley and Leeds United, though Watford and Norwich City appear destined for the drop.
But just how will it all unfold? Well, using the Stats Perform League Prediction Model, we can try and forecast the final standings.
Created by Stats Perform AI using Opta data, the model has analysed the division to assign percentages to potential outcomes for each club.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on teams' attacking and defensive qualities, which considers four years' worth of results, with weighting based on recency and the quality of opposition. The rest of the matches are then simulated 10,000 times to calculate the likelihood of each outcome.
Let's take a look...
PEP PIPS KLOPP TO THE POST... AGAIN
City won the Premier League title by a margin of just one point in the 2018-19 campaign. The gap has been much wider over the past two seasons, with Liverpool triumphing in 2020 and City winning last year.
But just like in 2019, the model suggests Liverpool will fall just short once again, with City predicted to stay on top. It gives Pep Guardiola's team a 66 per cent chance of winning their fourth title in five seasons, with the Reds given a 34 per cent chance.
Neither side are predicted to drop out of the top two – that seems a safe bet. Liverpool have a tough trip to in-form Newcastle United on Saturday, while City face Leeds United.
Newcastle will then have the chance to have another say in the title race when they visit City on May 8, with trips to Wolves and West Ham coming for the leaders before they round off their domestic season against Steven Gerrard's Aston Villa.
Liverpool, who also face Villa along with Spurs, Southampton and Wolves, will be wanting a favour from their club great on the last day of the season if they are to prove the model wrong.
GUNNERS CLINCH CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PLACE
Chelsea, according to the model, have a 98.7 chance of staying in third place, and are certain to be playing in UEFA's elite competition next season.
Below them, it is predicted that Arsenal will just nip into the top four rather than Spurs. Mikel Arteta's team have a 75.2 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League, and just 24.8 of finishing in a Europa League place.
While Stats Perform AI only gives Arsenal a minuscule opportunity of taking third off Chelsea, they have a 73.9 per cent chance of securing fourth place and featuring in the Champions League for the first time since 2016-17.
It seems likely that much will be decided on May 12, when Spurs welcome Arsenal to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Antonio Conte's team are predicted to finish fifth (72.4 per cent), and only have a 24.7 per cent likelihood of clinching fourth.
United are forecast to finish sixth (65 per cent), albeit there is the possibility they could even end 2021-22 in seventh. That position, however, seems set to be filled by West Ham, who have to win against Eintracht Frankfurt next week to keep their hopes of a Europa League triumph alive – success in that competition would take them into the Champions League, regardless of where they finish domestically.
TOFFEES CHAMPIONSHIP-BOUND
It has been a dismal season for Everton, who head into Sunday's clash with Frank Lampard's former club Chelsea sitting in the bottom three for the first time since 2019 (when, ironically, they beat a Chelsea side managed by Lampard).
Lampard has taken 10 points from his 12 games in charge, and they are now predicted to finish in 18th place. The model gives them a 29.8 per cent chance of escaping the drop and finishing 17th and just a 17.4 per cent likelihood of coming 16th. Their run-in includes three away games, and Everton have the worst away record in the competition – 12 of their 19 defeats coming on the road and they have taken just six points on their travels all season.
Burnley sit two points clear of Everton in 17th after two successive victories and are given a 39.4 per cent chance of staying put, although the likelihood of the Clarets' finishing 18th is not dissimilar (36.5 per cent).
Leeds have tough fixtures against City, Arsenal and Chelsea coming up before they host Brighton and Hove Albion and visit Brentford, though Stats Perform AI gives them only a 12.9 per cent chance of relegation.
Watford are heavily predicted to stay put in 19th too, with Norwich given a 67.4 per cent probability of finishing bottom – the model reckons they have a 0.1 per cent chance of avoiding the drop.
Juventus and Atalanta share points from Serie A stalemate in Bergamo
Juventus and Atalanta were forced to share the points after grinding out a goalless draw in Serie A on Sunday.
After an even start to the match in Bergamo both teams came close later in the first half, with Davide Zappacosta trying his luck before Nicolo Fagioli and Moise Kean tested Juan Musso in the Atalanta goal.
However, the hosts had the pick of the chances in the second half when Wojciech Szczesny got his fingertips to Luis Muriel’s free-kick before Teun Koopmeiners had two good shots in the closing stages.
The stalemate sees Massimiliano Allegri’s men sit four points behind league leaders Inter Milan in the table, while Atalanta remain a point behind Juve.
View this post on InstagramBoth sides opened the game well but Atalanta had the first clear-cut chance in the 14th minute when a great ball from Oscar Ruggeri on the left found Zappacosta in the box and the full-back’s effort whistled wide of a post.
A slow first half saw both sides have equal possession of the ball and Federico Chiesa was trying to create chances for Juve.
The visitors then had a chance on the half-hour mark as a corner ball fell to Fagioli on the edge of the box, but Musso managed to push it away.
Kean then tested Musso from distance, with the goalkeeper making a comfortable save to his right.
Atalanta put pressure on the visitors early in the second-half as Ederson hit a teasing cross into the box but Zappacosta was unable to meet the ball and Juve were straight up the other end of the pitch as Chiesa had a powerful effort palmed away by Musso.
The hosts were making good runs around the box but Juventus were able to counter the danger and they threatened again in the 69th minute from a corner.
Sead Kolasinac’s flicked header was turned away by Manuel Locatelli at the back post before Ederson’s resulting overhead kick flew wide.
Atalanta had an excellent opportunity in the 73rd minute when Muriel’s free-kick was curling towards the top corner, but Szczesny made a fantastic save, just getting his fingertips to the ball, and it deflected off the bar before being cleared away.
They threatened again from a corner as Berat Djimsiti headed over the bar before Ederson’s low strike was blocked by the Juve defence.
Atalanta nearly found the winner in the 88th minute when Muriel’s thumping shot was spilled by Szczesny into the path of Koopmeiners, but the Dutchman was unable to finish from the rebound.
Koopmeiners had another opportunity to snatch three points for the hosts after finding space in the box but his shot blazed over the bar and Juventus defended well to hold on for a point.
Referees have to help themselves – Forest’s Steve Cooper frustrated by decisions
Nottingham Forest boss Steve Cooper felt it was another bad day for the Professional Game Match Officials Limited after some controversial decisions in his side’s 1-1 draw with Brentford.
The PGMOL were forced to stand intended fourth official Darren England down at the City Ground after his mistake on Saturday night when, as VAR in Tottenham’s game against Liverpool, he failed to act properly in overturning the decision to rule out Luis Diaz’s goal for offside.
And both managers were left complaining after the draw as Nicolas Dominguez’s header cancelled out Christian Norgaard’s opener, which came immediately after Moussa Niakhate was sent off.
That is the decision that irked Cooper the most, the boss insisting that his defender’s tackle, where he raked his studs down Yoane Wissa’s calf, was accidental.
Cooper said: “Honestly, if he doesn’t give him a second yellow, nobody mentions it. All of your colleagues on TV and radio have said the same.
“With it being the only Premier League game of the day, the PGMOL needed a real clean day and unfortunately they have got the opposite. We want to help referees, we will moan and complain as much as anyone else, it is just the nature of it.
“We’ll try and do it respectfully, but sometimes it’s hard. They have got to help themselves. I’m annoyed with the first yellow, he shouldn’t have lunged in. The second yellow would not even have been mentioned…of course it was accidental.
“You need football understanding to see that. It’s a contact game.
“Some have gone for us, so I’m not sitting here saying we’re hard done by. We all want refereeing to be at the right level and we all want to help them and they have to help themselves. The last thing they needed today was talking points about decision-making, but that’s what they’ve got.
“Come on, let’s work together and we will help. Some things have gone in our favour, not as much as have gone against us. This league is amazing and every part of it needs to be at that level.”
Brentford boss Thomas Frank says he is “tired” of talking about VAR after he thought his side were denied a clear penalty.
Frank believes Wissa was fouled by Matt Turner early in the second half when he closed down the Forest goalkeeper and was caught by Turner’s follow through, while Brentford also had two penalty appeals turned down.
Referee Paul Tierney did not give anything and the incident was not even checked by VAR Michael Oliver.
“I am tired of talking about it, I understand you guys need to ask the question,” he said.
“I just want to talk about performances.
“I think the two handball situations, some managers would claim them as penalty, I won’t. I think I would really hate that if they were given against my team.
“But the Wissa one is a clear penalty, you can’t go through the man, that is an unfortunate mistake from VAR, especially when that is clear and obvious.
“Unfortunately our players are too honest, we need to be a little bit more nasty, I would never say that to the players, I like honest players.”
Liverpool beat Arsenal in front of record WSL crowd as Man Utd grab late winner
Liverpool pulled off a shock 1-0 win at Arsenal in front of a record Women’s Super League crowd.
There were 54,115 fans at the Emirates Stadium for the season opener, which was settled by a goal from Miri Taylor early in the second half.
Taylor slotted in a cross from Missy Bo Kearns in the 48th minute to stun the Gunners home support.
The Reds held off plenty of Arsenal pressure but Jonas Eidevall’s side, who were knocked out of the Champions League qualifiers last month, could not find a way back into the match.
Manchester United came from behind to beat Aston Villa 2-1 with a stoppage-time goal from substitute Rachel Williams at Villa Park, where the hosts saw Kirsty Hanson sent off.
Scotland winger Hanson was shown a straight red card in the 74th minute for her high tackle on United midfielder Hayley Ladd.
Villa, though, soon took the lead through England international Rachel Daly, only for Lucia Garcia to quickly have United back on level terms.
Just when it seemed both teams would have to settle for a point, Williams headed in Nikita Parris’ deflected cross to secure United a dramatic victory.
Leicester came from behind to beat newly-promoted Bristol City 4-2 at Ashton Gate.
The Robins, back in the top flight after an absence of two seasons, went ahead through a fine strike from Carrie Jones in the 33rd minute.
New Leicester signing Aimee Palmer, playing against her former club, fired the visitors level in added time at the end of the first half.
View this post on InstagramLeicester took control after the break, as Shannon O’Brien put them in front and German striker Lena Petermann, making her debut, headed a third in the 52nd minute.
Fellow debutant Jutta Rantala increased Leicester’s lead with seven minutes left before Amalie Thestrup scored her first Robins goal from the penalty spot.
Elisabeth Terland scored twice in the first half as Brighton opened their WSL campaign with a 2-0 win at Everton.
Norway forward Terland headed in after the ball came back off the crossbar to give the visitors a third-minute lead and soon added a second after being played in by Katie Robinson.
Everton captain Megan Finnigan reduced the deficit just after the hour, but the home side were unable to conjure an equaliser.
Manchester City won 2-0 at West Ham as Jill Roord scored on her debut.
Lauren Hemp broke the deadlock early in the second half with a curling effort before Chloe Kelly then saw her penalty saved.
Netherlands international Roord, a club-record summer signing from Wolfsburg, slotted in to open her City account in the 55th minute.
City finished a player down after Leila Ouahabi was shown a straight red card for kicking out at Emma Harries, but the Hammers could not get themselves back into the game.
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