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• The Numbers Game: Can Arsenal handle Rice absence in derby clash with Tottenham?

  The Premier League is back following the first international break of the season, and Sunday's headline fixture looks to be worth the wait as Tottenham host Arsenal.

  The first North London Derby of the campaign comes after disappointing results for both sides on matchday three, with Arsenal losing early ground on Manchester City and Liverpool as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Brighton.

  Ange Postecoglou's Spurs, meanwhile, were beaten 2-1 at Newcastle United, leaving them three points behind their rivals in the early-season standings.

  What can we expect as these North London heavyweights go head-to-head for local bragging rights at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium?

  By diving into the Opta data, we can bring you all the best pre-match facts, figures and storylines.

  What's expected?

  Arsenal have had the upper hand in the North London Derbies of late, and the Opta supercomputer makes them slight favourites despite the absence of home advantage.

  They were victorious in 40% of the supercomputer's 10,000 pre-match simulations, with Tottenham triumphing in 34.1% and the remaining 26% finishing all square. 

  Arsenal have won their last two Premier League away games against Tottenham, as many as in their previous 17 such visits (six draws and nine defeats). They last won three consecutive away North London Derbies between January 1987 and September 1988.

  Draws have been a rarity at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which has seen the lowest percentage of draws (9%, 9/101) of any ground in Premier League history, so perhaps we should not expect the spoils to be shared. 

  When will Tottenham stop being Spursy?

  The adjective 'Spursy' is not one any team wishes to be tagged with, coming to denote a side that flatters to deceive and ultimately falls short of expectations.

  Postecoglou has made no secret of his desire to cast that perception aside and make Tottenham true contenders, but their start to 2024-25 has thrown up several familiar themes.

  Spurs were utterly dominant on matchday one but could not hold onto a 1-0 lead at newly promoted Leicester City, starting their second straight season under Postecoglou with an underwhelming draw.

  After routing hapless Everton, they were then beaten 2-1 at Newcastle despite firing off 20 shots to the hosts' nine, also enjoying 65.7% possession and playing almost as many passes in the final third (235) as Newcastle did overall (261). 'Spursy' indeed.

  The North London Derby is a fixture in which Tottenham have struggled lately, losing five of their last seven Premier League meetings with Arsenal (one win and one draw).

  That is more defeats than they suffered in their previous 16 against their rivals (six wins, six draws and four defeats).

  These fixtures have so often been an acid test of Spurs' resilience, and they must improve their defending for a matchup that has not featured many clean sheets lately. 

  Arsenal versus Tottenham has seen both teams score more often than any other fixture in Premier League history (43 times), while it is also the fixture to see the team who scored first fail to win more often than any other (29 times, 19 draws and 10 losses).

  Can Gunners replace Rice?

  There was much for Mikel Arteta to be frustrated about as Arsenal dropped their first points of the campaign last time out, squandering a 1-0 lead in a 1-1 draw with Brighton.

  But it could be that the sending-off of Rice, who received a second yellow card for kicking the ball away early in the second half, proves more of an inconvenience than the result.

  The first red card of Rice's Premier League career – coming on his 245th appearance in the competition – has handed Arteta a major selection dilemma in the engine room.

  Rice started 37 of the Gunners' 38 Premier League games last season, appearing as a substitute in the other. It is often said that availability is the best ability, and Rice's 3,230 Premier League minutes in 2023-24 were only bettered by eight other outfielders – team-mate William Saliba (with a full 3,420) among them.

  With Rice patrolling the midfield, Arsenal were a picture of control last season, giving up the joint-fourth fewest fast breaks in the Premier League (23) and the joint-fifth fewest shots from fast breaks (20).

  Thomas Partey and Jorginho, the men likely to be tasked with holding the fort, will come up against a Spurs side with plenty of pace in transition, and the likes of Son Heung-min, Wilson Odobert and Brennan Johnson will be desperate to exploit his absence.

  Tottenham scored three goals from 25 fast breaks in Premier League action last term, finding the net every 8.3 fast breaks on average – only eight teams netted from such situations at a greater frequency.

  Rice did much to help Arsenal build the Premier League's most fearsome defence last term, and they approach Sunday's game with eight shutout victories in their last 10 away league games (nine wins, one draw).

  Elsewhere, captain Martin Odegaard is a doubt after sustaining an injury on international duty with Norway, with their absences potentially handing Spurs a golden opportunity.

  PLAYERS TO WATCH 

  Tottenham – Son Heung-min

  Tottenham skipper Son has scored eight goals against Arsenal in all competitions. In the history of the fixture, only Harry Kane (14), Emmanuel Adebayor (10) and Bobby Smith (10) have netted more North London Derby goals than the South Korean.

  Seven of Son's North London Derby goals have come in the Premier League, with no other current Spurs player boasting more than two strikes against the Gunners in the competition.

  Arsenal – Bukayo Saka

  Saka scored home and away goals against Tottenham in the Premier League last season. The only previous Arsenal players to score in three or more consecutive North London Derby appearances in the competition are Emmanuel Adebayor (five between 2006 and 2008) and Robert Pires (four between 2002 and 2004).

  Saka has also been involved in more attacking sequences than any other Arsenal player in the Premier League this term (22 – 10 shots, seven chances created and five build-up involvements), scoring once against Wolves on matchday one.

• FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew: Nancy calls for change after goalkeeper fiasco

  Wilfried Nancy has called for cohesion and understanding from MLS decision-makers after the Columbus Crew were forced to play with midfielder Sean Zawadzki in goal in their 4-0 defeat to the Seattle Sounders.

  Abraham Romero saw red at the end of the first half, and with both Patrick Schulte and Nicholas Hagen away on international duty, Zawadzki found himself wearing the gloves.

  Romero was the Crew’s only goalkeeper in the matchday squad as players from Columbus’ reserve side can only be called up four times before signing a professional contract. 

  Nancy asked MLS to allow an additional call-up for a backup goalkeeper but that request was rejected, leaving the Crew head coach furious at the full-time whistle.

  “We are at 39 matches played,” Nancy said. “We were mandated to have three goalkeepers on the teamsheet. This is what we did. We had to use a call-up for a friendly game against Aston Villa.

  “Why I'm not happy before the game and all the week it happened, I was not happy about that because there is a rule, as you know, we can use only four times, four call-ups [for] one player from the reserve team who has a contract.

  “You know the issue that we had with the goalkeepers with Evan Bush. We tried to anticipate, adding a fourth goalkeeper, knowing that we could have a situation like this.

  “When we asked before the game to have another call-up for our goalkeeper for the reserve team, they said no, knowing that this game [against] Seattle we were supposed to play in [May].”

  Cincinnati, meanwhile, bounced back from their defeat to Inter Miami in style, comfortably dispatching CF Montreal 4-1 at the TQL Stadium last time out.

  Pat Noonan’s side know the magnitude of their encounter this weekend, as a defeat would allow their opponents to leapfrog them in the Eastern Conference standings into second, with the Crew also having a game in hand.

  While the pressure is seemingly on the hosts, Noonan is relishing the challenge of facing the Leagues Cup winners on home soil.

  “Really pleased with the response from the last performance and just the overall play from our guys,” Noonan said.

  “I thought on both sides of the ball they were outstanding – maybe a little bit fortunate on some of those goals – but I am very pleased with the outcome and how the guys stepped up.”

  “We know the challenges that'll be ahead of us. The group can go win a game, it'll be a challenging match, but one that you have to be excited about.”

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Cincinnati – Luciano Acosta

  Acosta has scored five times for FC Cincinnati against the Crew, tied for the most goals scored by a Cincinnati player against any opponent in MLS play.

  The Argentine has also netted five goals against Toronto FC, with Brandon Vazquez also striking five times against Inter Miami.

  Columbus Crew – Diego Rossi

  With Columbus’ array of attacking options, Rossi has been the standout, registering 19 goals and eight assists in all competitions, netting six times in their Leagues Cup success.

  But across his two spells in MLS with the Crew and Los Angeles FC, the Uruguayan has failed to score against five opponents, with Cincinnati being one of them.

  MATCH PREDICTION: COLUMBUS CREW WIN

  After starting the season winless in four on the road (D3, L1), Columbus have won seven of their last nine regular-season away games (L2). The seven away victories are the most the Crew have ever recorded in a single regular season.

  However, they come into the encounter off the back of a 4-0 loss to the Sounders, their heaviest defeat since 2018. The Crew also have not lost consecutive matches in all competitions since a three-match losing streak last May.

  Cincinnati also boast an impressive home record against this weekend’s opponents. They are unbeaten in five straight regular-season matches on home soil against the Crew (W2 D3) but did lose last season’s Eastern Conference Final at TQL Stadium.

  OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

  Cincinnati – 29.4%

  Draw – 24.7%

  Columbus Crew – 45.9%

• Nagelsmann pleased with Germany development after Euro 2024 disappointment

  Julian Nagelsmann believes Germany have taken the next step in their development after sharing the spoils in an entertaining clash with the Netherlands on Tuesday. 

  Tijjani Reijnders handed the hosts the lead with just a minute and 39 seconds on the clock, only for Deniz Undav and Joshua Kimmich to respond before the break. 

  The Netherlands drew level five minutes into the second half through Denzel Dumfries, leaving the pair joint-top of Group A3 after the opening round of fixtures. 

  But with German ambitions of being strong contenders at the next World Cup after their Euro 2024 disappointment, Nagelsmann is looking to see improvements in every match despite the tournament being just under two years away. 

  “There is an awareness that every game is important,” Naglesmann said. 

  “We have the Nations League now, the qualifiers next year and then hopefully off to the World Cup. We have 18 games left until then - if all goes well.

  “The team believes in itself and that is the key. That is what we all want to see. Today we saw a team that wanted to win."

  But in an enthralling encounter, Nagelsmann acknowledged that improvements need to be made at both ends of the pitch. 

  Germany managed just five shots on target from the 21 they attempted, registering an expected goals total (xG) of 2.94 during the contest. 

  While only restricting the Netherlands to 11 shots, their opponents created four big chances to Germany's three, with the Oranje also winning 53.1% of their duels compared to 46.9% for Nagelsmann's side. 

  “Both defences were too vulnerable but offensively, we were stronger, tried to create more and took a bit more risk," Nagelsmann said. 

  “In the early stages of the second half, we tried a little too hard and were maybe a bit too aggressive in the tackles.”

  The Germany head coach was particularly pleased with his side's response to falling behind early on Reijnders' finish. 

  “The way we came back was very good. It took us five or six minutes, but then we were well in the game," Nagelsmann concluded.

  Germany continue their Nations League campaign with two away fixtures next month, starting with Bosnia and Herzegovina, followed by a reunion with the Dutch on October 14.