In this footballing climate, what are Bayern Munich and where do they sit in its pecking order?
From Barcelona, to Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus in recent years, the financial and footballing disparity between Europe's elite and the rest has warped perception. Lifting the league trophy at the end of the season no longer provides safety for a head coach.
Even then, Bayern are an extreme example. In the six years since Pep Guardiola left for Manchester City, they have gone through six head coaches, despite winning the Bundesliga in every season over that same period.
Bayern have been global standard-bearers for nearly four decades. Where other clubs and leagues have had lull periods away from the very highest levels of European football, they have consistently been in contention for silverware, even in relatively weak periods.
Just as importantly, though, the superiority clubs like Bayern now enjoy almost automatically dictates they will dominate possession in many games, irrespective of the ideology of the coach in charge and whether their teams can function with the ball as a consequence.
Niko Kovac's first season in 2018-19 was a good example of this. Bayern came nowhere near functioning in possession relative to the array of talent they had and still – along with some aid from Borussia Dortmund's regression to the mean after initial xG over-performance under Lucien Favre – managed an 11-point turnaround from third place in February to win the Bundesliga.
Meanwhile, they were comprehensively beaten by Liverpool in the last 16 of the Champions League with the majority of possession. Things declined even further under Kovac in his second season, before Hansi Flick took over the head coaching role, conquered Europe and subsequently replaced Joachim Low as the German national team coach at the end of the 2020-21 season.
This is the wider context that must be considered for Julian Nagelsmann's first season and what follows, because both club and international football ultimately acts within a continuum. Ahead of this weekend's Klassiker, much like that first season under Kovac, there's a dissonance that will accompany Bayern's title win.
Ultimately, a 10th consecutive Bundesliga title will not wash away the taste of Bayern's meek elimination at the hands of Villarreal in the Champions League quarter-finals. Those two legs were a microcosm of numerous aspects concerning this Bayern season – their true capacity in possession relative to the level of opposition, Nagelsmann's continual switching between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-3 formations, and finally from a standpoint of net gain, whether he's really getting the most out of the extraordinary creative forces that are Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski.
It is hard to overstate how Muller and Lewandowski provided more than goals and assists for Bayern under Flick. The utilisation of that duo was integral to the team's very functioning in possession, especially with Thiago Alcantara missing significant portions of that post-lockdown run late in the 2019-20 season. Kingsley Coman's decisive goal in the 2020 Champions League final against PSG was a perfect picture of the team when all three of Lewandowski, Muller and Thiago played – having initially tried to cover Muller, Leandro Paredes had to scramble, but it was too late, as Thiago fired his pass into Joshua Kimmich and Bayern got up the pitch.
Their combined touches in open play per 90 minutes under respective coaches makes for a good starting point. Under Kovac, Lewandowski and Muller held a combined 98.19 touches and 3.35 chances created from open play per 90 in all competitions. Flick's arrival leads to a dramatic spike for the two in both categories, with 107.6 touches in open play and 4.53 chances created in open play per 90.
Father Time will dictate an inevitable decline for the two as they approach 35, but more pertinently, Nagelsmann's approach has led to a return to their numbers under Kovac, with 98.59 touches per match and 3.85 chances created from open play between the two in all competitions this season. Then there's the discrepancy in eventual shot location.
The difference lies in involvement. Under Flick, Muller and Lewandowski effectively played as two strikers in a 4-4-2, while the wingers kept the defensive line pinned back, allowing the two with sufficient space to retreat and operate between the lines. Especially with midfielders like Kimmich and Leon Goretzka who do not like receiving the ball in tight areas, it was a critical component of Bayern's play and enabled them to open up the pitch.
Kimmich's increase in chance creation – his 2.83 per 90 this season is his highest out of the last four seasons in all competitions – is arguably born of the fact he is now Bayern's set-piece taker. His chance creation in open play has actually gone down from last season's 1.68 to 1.44, despite an increase in touches from 100.8 to 105.85.
Lewandowski and Muller's comparatively higher positioning and primary objective of threat behind the defensive line under Nagelsmann frankly makes the switching between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-3 irrelevant, because the 34-year-old has taken away the very thing that made Bayern function to begin with – the pair's ability to incorporate as well as get on the end of moves. Jamal Musiala's deployment in a 3-4-3 in the second leg against Villarreal only managed to clog the middle of the pitch up even further.
The player who has suffered the most with this change, however, is Serge Gnabry. His combined xG+xA figure of 0.92 in 2019-20 has dramatically decreased to 0.69 this year, while the middle of the pitch has been completely closed off to him, something evident in his dribble progression.
It all relates to the eventuality of Bayern's shot location and quality. Shot volume in Nagelsmann's first season has gone up to 20.13 in comparison to the 18.08 of that treble season under Flick, but they are shooting from further away, and with no increase in xG per shot. Against better defences, teams that hold high volumes of possession but ultimately struggle to play through the middle of the pitch are eventually found out. That has been the case this year, in Europe and particular in domestic losses to Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Monchengladbach.
This all exists amid the backdrop of Bayern Munich's waning financial power and status as a destination in relation to the rest of Europe's elite. Bayern centre-back Niklas Sule is set to leave for arch-rivals Borussia Dortmund. Emerging stars from within the Bundesliga who traditionally would have been guaranteed to end up at Sabener Strasse such as Dortmund's Erling Haaland, or RB Leipzig's Cristopher Nkunku and Josko Gvardiol, appear destined for elsewhere.
In the meantime, Bayern are reportedly haggling with Ajax over the release of Ryan Gravenberch who, despite the hype, arguably will not transform their midfield – much like Corentin Tolisso and Marc Roca.
There is also the small matter of Lewandowski's contract not being renewed and running the risk of expiring at the end of next season.
Sustained success can run the risk of providing diminishing returns, much like Juventus discovered in Italy. The question for Bayern is how to avoid it both as a club and under Nagelsmann, but can they?
Ramos in 'final phase' of recovery, says PSG boss Luis Enrique
Luis Enrique confirmed that Paris Saint-Germain striker Goncalo Ramos is nearing a return to action after sustaining an ankle injury on the opening day of the season.
Ramos, who scored 14 goals in 40 appearances in all competitions in his debut season for PSG last year, has not featured for the Parisiens since their 4-1 win over Le Havre in August.
But despite his absence, Luis Enrique's side sit top of the Ligue 1 standings ahead of welcoming Toulouse to the Parc des Princes this Friday.
They are also the top scorers in the division, netting 33 goals in 11 matches so far, nine more than Marseille, who are second in the scoring table.
And as the hectic festive schedule kickstarts, Luis Enrique revealed Ramos has already returned to full first-team training.
"It was the 25th and that is in a few days, so it is the final phase of his recovery," Luis Enrique told reporters.
"As for when he is available (to play) we do not know. We will see in training, he is doing really well and is in full training."
Following Friday's fixture against Toulouse, PSG travel to the Allianz Arena to face Bayern Munich in the Champions League, hoping to ignite their European campaign.
The Ligue 1 champions are at risk of failing to qualify for the knockout stages of the competition having taken four points from their first four games this season.
They currently sit 25th in the new 36-team league table, and with an important week coming up, Luis Enrique insisted he would think about rotating his squad.
"You mustn't only think about the game against Toulouse but also the workload for players with their national teams," he said.
"So we will make decisions based on what we think. We want to win against Toulouse, which is our main target."
Ousmane Dembele did not feature during the international break after he left the France training camp with a hamstring issue, though he is expected to feature this Friday.
"In theory, it was nothing serious. I don't think it was a big issue and these things happen during the season," Luis Enrique said.
"It is normal with such a busy schedule, he should be available to play."
While Toulouse sit 10th in the league standings, they will provide PSG with a difficult test. They come into the game on the back of three consecutive wins, all without conceding a goal.
PSG have also not won any of their last two meetings against Toulouse (D1 L1), and could go three games without a win against the Violets for the second time in the 21st century after a winless streak between December 2007 to October 2009 (five).
Hurzeler: Brighton need to 'work to get momentum' despite Man City win
Brighton and Hove Albion boss Fabian Hurzeler believes his players need to rebuild their momentum following a two-week break after their 2-1 victory over Manchester City.
The Seagulls came back from a goal down in dramatic fashion to inflict City's fourth successive defeat in all competitions last time out.
Though the international break came at a bad time for his in-form team, Hurzeler refused to criticise the schedule ahead of their trip to the Vitality Stadium.
"You always have to work to get momentum. It's always a new game and no matter if there's a break between games or not, the game starts from zero," he told a pre-match press conference.
"You have to go into the game and do the things you can influence to the maximum.
"You can't say 'we won against Manchester City and now the momentum will keep going', it's about fighting for momentum.
"It's a new game, a different challenge and a really big challenge because Bournemouth are one of the strongest teams at the moment."
Bournemouth have also beaten City recently, with the Cherries also triumphing over Arsenal and Southampton in their last three home matches.
"They can play very intense, they run a lot, they have individual quality, they are in good shape. For me at the moment, they're one of the best teams in the league," Hurzeler said of the Cherries.
Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola, meanwhile, was keen to stress that his players need to keep their concentration against Brighton. The Cherries were beaten 3-2 away to Brentford last time out, despite having taken the lead twice.
“You never want to lose the last game before the break because at the end you remember the last feeling. We will remember this week, the actions here against Brentford," he said.
"We can prepare very well for the game against Brighton, that is going to be also very demanding.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Bournemouth – Evanilson
Evanilson has scored four goals for Bournemouth since joining the club in August. He is tied with Antoine Semenyo as the club's top scorer, although his goals have come in one fewer appearance.
The Brazilian forward has found the net in three successive matches and will become the first Bournemouth player since Callum Wilson in 2019 to score in four straight top-flight games should he do so on Saturday.
Brighton – Danny Welbeck
Danny Welbeck is Brighton's leading scorer so far this season, with six league goals – a total that includes three opening goals.
He has scored two away goals so far in the current campaign, coming on the opening day at Everton and the only goal of the game at Newcastle United last month.
MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW
Bournemouth come into this in 12th place in the Premier League on 15 points after 11 matches, having lost 3-2 to Brentford in their most recent game.
At home, though, they have taken 10 points from five matches (three wins, one draw, one loss) and come into this with three successive victories at the Vitality Stadium. They have never won four Premier League home games in a row.
Brighton have earned seven points from five away games (two wins, one draw and two losses) and, despite being six places above their hosts in the table, there are just four points between them.
While Bournemouth have won four of their five Premier League home games against Brighton, Fabian Hurzeler's side come into this in good form having won three of their last five (one draw, one loss) Premier League matches – as many victories as they managed across their previous 16 league games (six draws, seven defeats).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Bournemouth – 41.2%
Draw – 25.1%
Brighton – 33.7%
McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United
Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.
United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.
While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.
That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.
McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.
"Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.
"It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."
Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.
Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off.
"I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea.
"You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that.
"We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Ipswich Town - Liam Delap
Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.
That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).
Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho
Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).
The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).
MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN
Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.
The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.
United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.
The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.
However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Ipswich Town - 22.2%
Draw - 23%
Manchester United - 54.8%
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