EPL

The Numbers Game: Liverpool title hopes could hinge on ending winless run in Man City rivalry

By Sports Desk April 08, 2022

Pep Guardiola proudly declared Manchester City and Liverpool have "raised the bar" in the Premier League, and on Sunday the north-west giants collide in a game that could have a telling impact on the destiny of the trophy.

It falls inconveniently between high-stakes Champions League quarter-final games, although the fact both City and Liverpool are ahead after the first legs of their ties somewhat mitigates that pressure.

Given City hold just a one-point lead over Liverpool with eight rounds of games remaining, a win for either at the Etihad Stadium would be a huge leap nearer to the title.

The prospect of Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp directing in their animated manner from the touchline, as their star-packed teams pull no punches on the pitch, makes this an unmissable game.

Ahead of kick-off in the biggest club game in Europe this weekend, Stats Perform has taken a look at some key pointers.

City start as favourites for a reason

English bookmakers have City as the team most likely to come away from this one with three points, and there is good reason for Guardiola's men to go in with confidence.

City have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League home games against Liverpool (W7 D4), going down 4-1 in Jurgen Klopp’s first visit in the competition in November 2015.

Liverpool had a 2-1 Champions League win at City in April 2018, but their recent successes in the league in this rivalry have been largely limited to games at Anfield. Indeed, Liverpool are winless in their last four Premier League games against City (D2 L2), regardless of the venue.

Only once in the competition have Liverpool had a longer run without a win against City, going five games without getting the better of the boys in blue between November 2011 and December 2013.

Keep it clean, lads

Liverpool have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 11 Premier League away games against City, since a 0-0 draw in February 2010, and with Guardiola's formidable attacking resources it would surely be a surprise if this becomes the game where the Reds halt that sequence.

So goes one theory. Another way of looking at the game is to consider that Liverpool are in a stunning vein of form, and if they are ever going to halt the leakage of goals to City, it will be this weekend.

Liverpool have won each of their last 10 Premier League games, keeping eight clean sheets in doing so. It is their fifth run of 10 or more consecutive Premier League wins, Opta said.

Both Liverpool and City have achieved 18 clean sheets in 30 games this season, so could they even blunt out each other's threat?

When first and second collide

This is the 30th season of the Premier League, and Sunday's game marks the 50th time the top two sides in the division will have met.

Of the previous 49 such league clashes, the leaders have won on 20 occasions but lost 18 times, with 11 games drawn. City and Liverpool have met as the top two twice before, with a goalless draw at Anfield in October 2018 coming when City were at the summit, before Guardiola's men scored a 4-0 thrashing against Liverpool in July 2020.

The latter game came a week after Liverpool wrapped up the Premier League title, and was an ominous sign of a pendulum swing for the following season.

Liverpool can jump to first place for the first time since October 1, and they might bear in mind that battles between first and second towards the end of the season have tended to go the way of the chaser in recent times.

In fact, of the last eight Premier League clashes between the top two during the final 10 games of the season, the team in second have won seven times (L1), including each of the last five in a row.

There is just a sliver between these sides, reflected in the fact City have taken a league-high 516 points since Guardiola's arrival for the start of the 2016-17 season, and Liverpool are close behind with 488 points. Chelsea are a distant third on that list with 427 points.

The players who could make the difference

Phil Foden came off the bench to slide the pass that allowed Kevin De Bruyne to smash past Jan Oblak on Tuesday and give City a 1-0 first-leg lead over Atletico Madrid. Foden looks a sure-fire starter this weekend and has flourished in the Liverpool fixture, having scored in all three of his Premier League outings against Klopp's team, while also claiming two assists.

The 21-year-old could become just the second player to score in four successive Premier League appearances against the Reds, after Leicester City's Jamie Vardy, who found the back of the net in five straight games between 2016 and 2017.

Liverpool will know the threat could come from all angles, with Foden, ex-Liverpool man Raheem Sterling, De Bruyne, Riyad Mahrez, Bernardo Silva, Jack Grealish and Gabriel Jesus all likely menaces.

Perhaps the danger coming from Liverpool themselves is more obvious, but that does not necessarily make it easier to deflect.

Mohamed Salah has scored in four of his last five Premier League games against City, including each of his last three. The last player to score in four consecutive Premier League appearances against City was Chelsea's Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, who netted in five successive meetings between December 2000 and October 2003.

Salah is the Premier League's top scorer and might be the chief threat, but Diogo Jota, Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mane and Luis Diaz will have to be guarded carefully, should they feature.

It is a guessing game as to which three Klopp will perm from his five-man pool of star forwards. The occasion itself is a guessing game too, as Klopp and Guardiola attempt to outwit one another once again.

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    Vlahovic returned from the international break with a muscle problem in his left thigh, and the manager, after he confirmed the Serbian's absence for Saturday's game at San Siro, was asked about his chances of playing on Wednesday at Villa Park.

    "I don't know. He definitely won't be there tomorrow. We hope to have him back as soon as possible," Motta told a press conference on Friday.

    "Injuries are part of football. Now it's Vlahovic's turn, but we'll keep playing with the same principles, attacking and defending together."

    Vlahovic is the latest of Motta's injury problems at Juventus. Argentine winger Nicolas Gonzalez missed the last six league games and is still unavailable, while Poland striker Arkadiusz Milik is a long-term absentee.

    Brazilian midfielder Douglas Luiz will also miss the game with Milan and defender Juan Cabal recently suffered an Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) injury, the same issue which will keep fellow defender Gleison Bremer out for the rest of the season.

    "I'm really disappointed for Cabal because, like Bremer, he'll be out for a long time," Motta said.

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    Juventus go into the game as the only unbeaten side in Serie A but find themselves sixth in the standings in what is so far a very tight title race, with just two points separating Motta's side from leaders Napoli.

    "It's very balanced and this is good for both us and the public," Motta said.

    "We must all try to continue like this. We have to try to get as many positive results as possible."

    Milan are one place behind Juve but six points off Motta's side.

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    Vlahovic returned from the international break with a muscle problem in his left thigh, and the manager, after he confirmed the Serbian's absence for Saturday's game at San Siro, was asked about his chances of playing on Wednesday at Villa Park.

    "I don't know. He definitely won't be there tomorrow. We hope to have him back as soon as possible," Motta told a press conference on Friday.

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    Vlahovic is the latest of Motta's injury problems at Juventus. Argentine winger Nicolas Gonzalez missed the last six league games and is still unavailable, while Poland striker Arkadiusz Milik is a long-term absentee.

    Brazilian midfielder Douglas Luiz will also miss the game with Milan and defender Juan Cabal recently suffered an Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) injury, the same issue which will keep fellow defender Gleison Bremer out for the rest of the season.

    "I'm really disappointed for Cabal because, like Bremer, he'll be out for a long time," Motta said.

    "This is another reason to push ourselves, to commit that bit more so that these absences don't weigh too heavily."

    Juventus go into the game as the only unbeaten side in Serie A, but find themselves sixth in the standings in what is so far a very tight title race, with just two points separating Motta's side from leaders Napoli.

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    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    New York City FC – Alonzo Martinez

    Twelve of Alonzo Martinez's 17 goals this season (regular season and playoffs) have been scored in home matches, while Santiago Rodriguez has scored 11 of his 13 goals at home.

    Both players found the net in NYCFC's home win over Cincinnati in Game 2 of their first-round series.

    New York Red Bulls – Emil Forsberg

    Emil Forsberg became the 14th different Red Bulls player to record a goal and an assist in a single playoff match in Game 2 of New York's first-round series against Columbus Crew.

    No player has more than one such game in the team's postseason history.

    MATCH PREDICTION: NEW YORK CITY FC WIN

    This will be the first playoff meeting between New York City FC and the Red Bulls, but the fifth in knockout rounds in all competitions.

    The Red Bulls eliminated NYCFC in each of the previous four knockout round meetings, doing so in the US Open Cup three times and the Leagues Cup once.

    NYCFC has won five of their eight all-time home playoff matches, including the last three in a row. All three teams that defeated NYCFC on the road in the playoffs went on to reach the MLS Cup Final (Toronto FC in 2016 & 2019, Atlanta United in 2018).

    The Red Bulls' 1-0 win at Columbus in Game 1 on October 29 ended a six-match road losing streak in postseason play for the club. The Red Bulls have won multiple road playoff games in a single season twice before, doing so in 2008 and 2017.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    New York City FC – 46.5%

    Draw – 26.5%

    New York Red Bulls – 27%

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