Italy may have been absent from Friday's 2022 World Cup draw, but they can at least provide recent examples of the pitfalls of forecasting the finals this far in advance.
At South Africa 2010, as defending champions, the Azzurri would have expected to top an apparently kind group, drawn alongside New Zealand, Paraguay and Slovakia. Remarkably, Marcello Lippi's side finished bottom.
Four years later, at Brazil 2014, Italy entered the 'group of death' and fared little better, coming in third ahead of fellow big-name failures England – but predicted Group D whipping boys Costa Rica sensationally topped the standings.
It is surely too early then to form firm opinions, but where is the fun in taking such a measured approach on draw day, rather than plotting potential paths to the Lusail final?
France fans will likely be doing the latter this weekend, with Les Bleus having been handed perhaps the pick of the groups, starting against one of the United Arab Emirates, Australia or Peru before facing Denmark and then Tunisia.
Of course, France are the defending champions and four of the past five holders have bowed out at the group stage, including the most recent three in a row, while Brazil in 1962 were the last team to win consecutive tournaments.
But France's title-winning campaign in 2018 saw them grouped with Australia, Peru and Denmark, giving Didier Deschamps' men some confidence they can negotiate this task, too. In the last 16, they would then face a team from Argentina's group – Lionel Messi and Co. having provided France's second-round opponents in Russia.
Brazil might also be suffering from deja vu, again meeting Serbia and Switzerland in the group stage, with Cameroon taking Costa Rica's place this time around. Like France, the Selecao topped their pool four years ago – as every eventual champion since 1986 has.
Crucially for both, in coming up against Denmark and Switzerland, they avoided Germany – surely the biggest threat in pot two. Rejuvenated under Hansi Flick, the 2014 champions provide a complication for both Spain and Belgium.
Germany followed Spain into Group E, where Japan might pose enough problems to ensure a top-two finish is no guarantee. Or perhaps Costa Rica could spring another surprise, as they will be the fourth team in the pool should they get past New Zealand in their inter-confederation play-off.
Bookmakers downgraded Germany's hopes in the minutes after the draw, but they were always likely to face elite opposition given their place in pot two. Spain were not.
And Belgium's kind group – Canada, Morocco and Croatia are their opponents – matters little given they will likely face either Spain or Germany in the second round.
England, on the face of it, have a simpler path to the quarter-finals. The Three Lions should be able to advance through a group that also includes Iran, the United States and Scotland, Ukraine or Wales – although those make for some tasty fixtures.
In the last 16, following a good period of rest, England would face opponents from Qatar's group, which was surely the result every pot one team hoped for.
Gareth Southgate would likely welcome a meeting with Qatar, but the host nation – the only debutants in 2022 – will do well to make it that far, with Ecuador, Senegal and the Netherlands each surely fancying their chances in a very even group.
South Africa in 2010 are the only hosts not to have progressed from the first round in World Cup history, but they could soon have company.
WINNERS
France – The defending champions face familiar opponents in the group and potentially in the second round, too, while they are in the same quarter of the draw as Qatar's pool and will avoid Spain, Germany, Belgium and Brazil early on.
Brazil – The tournament favourites should have no problems in the group so can settle into their campaign nicely while possible heavyweight opponents face titanic early tests.
England – The Euro 2020 finalists have been given thorough examinations by the USA, Scotland and Wales in past tournaments, but Southgate's side should advance and will back themselves again in the knockout stage.
LOSERS
Spain – La Roja have not won their World Cup opener since 2006 but simply cannot afford a slow start this time, with Germany and perhaps Belgium to play after that. From pot one, Spain's draw could not have been much worse.
Belgium – The odds for Roberto Martinez's men to go all the way drifted on Friday, as initial optimism around their group-stage draw was followed by greater inspection of a daunting path to the final.
Qatar – The hosts may be the Asian champions, but only Germany were perhaps feared more than the Netherlands from pot two, while Senegal in pot three are the African champions and have a world class operator in the form of Sadio Mane.
Coventry City 2-3 Hull City: Tigers win five-goal thriller to keep play-off hopes alive
Hull City kept their hopes of gatecrashing the Championship play-offs alive with a thrilling 3-2 win over beaten FA Cup semi-finalists Coventry City on Wednesday.
Noah Ohio scored the winner with his first touch after coming on as a second-half substitute as Hull moved within three points of sixth-placed Norwich City with two games to play.
Coventry, meanwhile, saw their own hopes of returning to Wembley Stadium for a second successive play-off final all but ended, as they sit six points further back with three matches remaining.
Three days on from their remarkable comeback against Manchester United, the Sky Blues twice fought back to level things at Coventry Building Society Arena. Jaden Philogene's shot squirmed under goalkeeper Bradley Collins to put Hull ahead 31 minutes in, but Kasey Palmer levelled within five minutes with a stunning free-kick.
Hull went back ahead in controversial circumstances on the stroke of half-time, Liverpool loanee Fabio Carvalho converting from the penalty spot despite replays showing Joel Latibeaudiere's foul on Liam Delap took place outside the area.
Mark Robins' men again dragged themselves back into the game as Bobby Thomas headed Jay Dasilva's cross in just before the hour mark, but it was Liam Rosenior's visitors who found a winner.
Thomas went from hero to villain as his poor back pass sold Collins short, and Ohio got a toe to the ball to score the winner, keeping Hull's hopes of Premier League football intact.
Van Dijk: Liverpool have 'no chance' in title race after derby defeat
Virgil van Dijk conceded Liverpool might be out of the Premier League title race after they suffered a surprise 2-0 defeat to Everton in Wednesday's Merseyside derby.
Jarrad Branthwaite and Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored in either half to give the Toffees their first win over Liverpool at Goodison Park since 2010.
Liverpool struggled to find a way through the Toffees' defence despite dominating for long periods, and the Reds' captain says they will not outlast Arsenal and Manchester City without major improvements.
Speaking to Sky Sports, Van Dijk said: "If we play like today, then we have no chance to consider ourselves in the title race.
"We have to just focus on the next game and that will be a tough one anyway, so we will see.
"We're very disappointed, in so many ways. I think everyone has to look at their own performances. Did they really give everything, and do they really want to win the league?
"We're still fighting and there are still games after tonight, but if we play like we did overall in the game today – not winning challenges and giving the referee a chance to give free-kicks like he did many times, then you have no chance to win the title."
Howe: Newcastle performance in Palace defeat 'way off' Spurs win
Eddie Howe admitted Newcastle United's performance in the 2-0 loss at Crystal Palace on Wednesday was "way off" the one that saw them thump Tottenham in their previous game.
Howe's men hammered Spurs 4-0 in their last match, but they never got close to matching the attacking verve from that outing and a Jean-Philippe Mateta double condemned the Magpies to defeat at Selhurst Park.
Newcastle didn't even manage a shot on target until the 87th minute, accumulating just 0.42 xG (expected goals) as the likes of Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon struggled to make an impact.
Only against Manchester City in August (one) have Newcastle recorded fewer shots on target in a Premier League game this season than their two against Palace, and Howe was critical of his team's display in the loss, one that all but ends their hopes of finishing in the top four.
"[It is a] bad day for us," Howe told Newcastle's club media.
"I thought we were disappointing today, especially in the first 60 minutes. We were way off our levels against Tottenham and our best levels.
"I thought technically we didn't deliver a good performance, and out of possession I don't think it was a particularly good performance either."
Newcastle were unlocked twice for Mateta to score by a Palace side who themselves only generated 0.88 xG.
Howe was left frustrated by the manner in which his side conceded, adding: "I think we'll be disappointed with our performance technically today, and that's probably epitomised by the two goals where we're disappointed with how we've given them the ball in those situations and then how we defended.
"I think the goals sum up aspects of our performance where there was some good, lots of moments that could have led to opportunities, but we were slow to shoot around the box," he said.
The defeat, combined with Manchester United's 4-2 win over Sheffield United, means Newcastle drop to seventh, while eighth-placed West Ham are two points behind with a game in hand.
Newcastle have now lost eight of their last 11 Premier League away games, while they have lost on four occasions in London in the league this term, only doing so more times in a Premier League season in 2000-01 and 2005-06 (both five).
It's been a disappointing season for Howe and his side, especially compared to the heroics of last term when Newcastle finished in the top four, and the Magpies boss knows there's work to be done to get back to those levels.
"It's a day that we have to take our punishment, deal with it, and then try and improve," Howe continued. "It's frustrating because we know we're capable of much better."
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