The Numbers Game: Juventus improvement set for litmus test in Derby d'Italia

By Sports Desk April 01, 2022

It wasn't so long ago that voicing the idea of Juventus challenging for the Scudetto this season would have seen you laughed out of the room.

Yet, remarkably, they could potentially end the weekend just four points off the summit, and a victory over defending champions Inter would be a decent barometer of just how emphatic their late push is going to be.

Serie A's standout match this week is undoubtedly the Derby d'Italia between Juve and Inter in Turin, with Italy's top flight essentially establishing a pretty firm top four ahead of the international break.

But Massimiliano Allegri's Juve surely won't be content with just settling for fourth spot, and a win on Sunday will show they mean business.

A bedrock for improvement

Even if Juve do end up winning Serie A, Allegri will still have to contend with plenty of critics given their shock Champions League exit to Villarreal.

However, there's little doubt he has presided over a significant improvement since Andrea Pirlo's exit, even if the Old Lady remains more functional than fun.

 

The most notable aspect of their improved form is Juve's unbeaten streak. They have not lost any of their previous 16 league games, making them only one of two teams across the big five leagues to not suffer a domestic defeat in the past four months, the other being Sevilla in LaLiga.

The omens are good for Inter's visit as well: the Nerazzurri have won just once in 15 trips to Juve and that came way back in November 2012.
 

Timely break

Simone Inzaghi must have been concerned about Inter's form prior to the international break, which seemingly came at a good time for them.

Over their previous nine Serie A matches, Inter have gained just 11 points and won only two matches – sure, victory on Sunday and another in their game in hand will put them within three points of the summit, but that previous run is hardly a hallmark of champions.

By comparison, Juve have hit the accelerator at arguably the perfect time. Over the same period, Allegri's men have taken 21 points.

The Bianconeri have rocketed into contention by finding consistency when, for the most part, the top three have wobbled, and if they continue their run, Juventus will be hard to ignore in the title race.

Juve, beware!

For all of their recent woes, Inter of course remain a dangerous opponent with a particularly threatening tail.

That's to say Inter do have a habit of finishing strong and not knowing when they're beaten.

In Serie A this season, Inter's 19 points won from losing positions is more than any other team, while they have scored 22 times in the final 30 minutes of games – that's a joint-high with Atalanta, Lazio and Hellas Verona.

Juve ought to heed such a warning – don't get complacent with a slender lead in the latter stages.
 

A tight affair?

While Inter are the league's top scorers with 62 goals, there's reason to suggest this won't be an unrelenting goalfest… *cue eight-goal thriller*.

These are two of the league's best three defences, while no team has kept more clean sheets than Juve's 13 this term.

 

On top of that, Juve have proven rather miserly when it comes to allowing goalscoring situations, with their average of 3.1 shots on target concede per 90 minutes being bettered only by Torino.

Inter aren't much worse in that respect, with their average at 3.6 – that's the sixth best in Serie A. Of course, a clinical display in that regard could still lead to plenty of goals, but clearly if there's any area both of these sides have excelled in domestically this term, it's defensively.

 

Related items

  • St. Louis City v LA Galaxy: Reus sets sights on silverware after dream start St. Louis City v LA Galaxy: Reus sets sights on silverware after dream start

    Marco Reus is desperate to bring silverware to the LA Galaxy after making a flying start to his time in MLS, with St. Louis City the destination for his first road game on Sunday.

    Reus registered a goal and an assist on debut last week as the Galaxy beat Atlanta United 2-0, maintaining their grip on top spot in the Western Conference.

    The Galaxy are five points clear of local rivals Los Angeles FC at the top of the standings ahead of Sunday's trip to St. Louis, who are 13th and 10 points adrift of the playoff picture.

    Reus' arrival in Los Angeles has caused plenty of fanfare, but he is focused solely on the team's collective aims.

    "It's not about me, it's about the team," he said. "We want to be champions. So we take it game by game.

    "Besides the traffic, it's really amazing. The people are so friendly. The weather, it's really nice. When you wake up in the morning and the sun is shining, you start the day differently.

    "So I'm really, really happy every morning I come into the dressing room. I'm just happy and excited."

    St. Louis played out a thrilling 4-4 draw with the Portland Timbers last week, twice throwing away a two-goal lead to leave interim coach John Hackworth bewildered. 

    "Really don't know what to say," Hackworth said. "It's hard to imagine coming to a place like this and scoring four goals, being up, and then just losing one-versus-one defensive battles.

    "Sometimes, the number of goals you give up, or the number of goals you score, can hide a lot of the transition moments.

    "An easy way to prevent some of these defensive miscues from happening is to just be better with the ball."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    St. Louis City – Eduard Lowen

    Lowen scored his fourth goal of the MLS season last time out, converting from the penalty spot as St. Louis drew 4-4 with the Timbers.

    Only Joao Klauss, with five goals, has outscored him for St. Louis this term.

    LA Galaxy – Marco Reus

    Reus is one of 20 players in MLS history to record a goal and an assist on his regular-season debut. 

    He is also the fifth Galaxy player to do so, after Steven Gerrard, Andreas Herzog, Giovani dos Santos and Sasha Victorine. No other team have had more than two players achieve the feat.

    MATCH PREDICTION – DRAW

    The Galaxy have won 10 of their last 13 regular-season matches, the first time they have done so in a single season since 2011. LA have not recorded 11 wins in a span of 14 matches within a single regular season in the post-shootout era (since 2000).

    It would be no surprise to see the points shared in this one, though. All three meetings between St. Louis and the Galaxy have ended level, all with different scorelines (1-1, 2-2, 3-3).

    St. Louis have only won one of the last six matches in which they have held the lead in regular-season play dating back to the beginning of June (four draws, one defeat).

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    St. Louis City – 35.8%

    LA Galaxy – 38.1%

    Draw – 26.1%

  • Raphinha hails Barcelona after statement win over Valladolid Raphinha hails Barcelona after statement win over Valladolid

    Barcelona forward Raphinha believes the team have laid down a statement of their intent by starting the season with four straight wins in LaLiga.

    Raphinha scored the first hat-trick of his career and also delivered two assists on Saturday, as Barca crushed Real Valladolid 7-0 at Camp Nou.

    Hansi Flick's side already possess a four-point cushion at the top of the table after also recording victories over Valencia, Athletic Bilbao and Rayo Vallecano.

    Raphinha believes their results have demonstrated the club got things right in the transfer market, telling Movistar: "Today's game has shown that there is no need for anyone else to come. We are very happy because of that.

    "We are in very good shape. The team is working hard. Today's result shows what we are working for. 

    "We saw that the coach was on the sidelines asking for more goals and that's our mentality.

    "We are hungry and want to score as many goals as we can. When we are dominant like we have been, the best way to respect our rivals is not taking the foot off the gas."

    Raphinha was one of the players who faced criticism during Barca's trophyless 2023-24 campaign and was rumoured to be on his way out ahead of the new season.

    The Blaugrana again battled financial restrictions throughout the window, allowing Ilkay Gundogan to leave in order to secure the registration of new arrival Dani Olmo.

    With his future now certain, Raphinha is keen to nail down a starting spot and contribute on a regular basis.

    "I don't know if today's was my best game, but it's certainly among my best. I will try to play even better and as much as I can," the Brazilian said.

    "I'm very happy to be able to help the team. I feel good. I knew that this season would be very important for me. I'm looking for my best version to help my team-mates and be more confident."

  • Lazio 2-2 Milan: Leao salvages draw but Rossoneri still winless Lazio 2-2 Milan: Leao salvages draw but Rossoneri still winless

    Rafael Leao came off the bench to earn Milan a 2-2 draw with Lazio at the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday, but Paulo Fonseca's side are still without a Serie A win this season.

    Milan were in front at the break through Strahinja Pavlovic's eighth-minute goal, the Serbian rising highest to power home a header from Christian Pulisic's corner.

    However, Lazio hit back in the second half with Valentin Castellanos and Boulaye Dia scoring in quick succession.

    Nuno Tavares' first-time ball into the centre was met by the unmarked Castellanos to level in the 62nd minute, then Dia tapped another Tavares cutback home to put the Biancocelesti ahead four minutes later.

    Fonseca reacted by sending on four substitutes, and those changes had a swift impact as three of them combined for the leveller. 

    Theo Hernandez – who joined Leao in being dropped from the start – picked out Tammy Abraham, and his lay-off allowed Leao to escape Tavares to fire past Ivan Provedel.

    The game was preceded by an emotional tribute to the man who led Lazio to their last league title, Sven-Goran Eriksson, who died at the age of 76 on Monday.

    A Lazio shirt bearing the Swede's name was displayed on the home bench, while a banner held up by the home fans read: "You brought us to the top of the world... Have a good trip Mr. Sven."

    Data Debrief: Milan's slow start continues

    New Milan boss Fonseca is already under pressure after overseeing a return of two points from his first three league games at the helm.

    It is the first time the Rossoneri have drawn two of their opening three matches in a Serie A season since 2011-12, when they also drew two and lost one, 

    They went on to finish second that season, just four points adrift of champions Juventus. If a title challenge is to take place this term, rapid improvements are needed. 

© 2024 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.