Is Maurizio Sarri getting the most out of Lazio? To help answer that, we arguably have to look to his coaching predecessor - Simone Inzaghi.
After five seasons of trying under Inzaghi's stewardship, the Biancocelesti finally qualified for the Champions League. There were seasons where they came agonisingly close too - particularly in 2017-18, where Inter beat them at the Stadio Olimpico on the final day of the Serie A season, to claim fourth place and the final spot in Europe's premier competition.
When they finally did qualify, last season’s 6-2 defeat on aggregate to Bayern Munich in the last-16 – and Inzaghi’s ensuing departure for Inter – was microcosmic of an overall sense the 45-year-old extracted the maximum out of the players he had at his disposal, within his system.
With Sunday's Rome derby in mind, despite the fact Lazio are currently fifth and again perceivably in the running for that last Champions League place, that's the arguable framework for how we must interpret Sarri's first season in the Italian capital.
It's not only pertinent to ask whether the 63-year-old is extracting the maximum out of this Lazio squad within his own system. Ultimately, are the players Sarri has at his disposal even compatible to that system?
One of the stronger case studies in this discussion is Luis Alberto. The Spaniard is arguably not only one of Serie A's most transformative midfielders, but in European football.
Since joining Lazio in 2016, within the framework of Inzaghi’s 3-5-2, the 29-year-old blossomed into an elite ball progressor and shot creator from a statistical standpoint. He holds five of the 10 highest ratings for passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes in Lazio's history - since Stats Perform's first recordings of the data in 2005-06.
Just as important as Luis Alberto's ability to create with the ball is his ability to act as a positional reference point, in order to create for others without it. His ability to drive and distribute is underpinned by an intelligent and assertive positional sense, which also compliments the likes of Ciro Immobile and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic - and the latter’s particular penchant for late entry into the penalty area.
Yet along with cramping him of the half-space to move into when Lazio are in possession, Sarri's 4-3-3 setup asks more of the Spaniard defensively - exacerbating his notoriously suspect ground coverage. The more energetic Toma Basic's August transfer from Bordeaux and initial scope under the new coach, in Luis Alberto's place, was conspicuous in this respect.
This all matters because under Sarri, only Napoli have kept the ball more than them in Serie A this season. Lazio rank 12th in Europe's top-five leagues combined for touches per 90, but 60th for shots in the penalty area per 90. It would take a sizeable increase in shot quality upon previous years to make that disparity more sustainable, weighing up qualitative and quantitative aspects. That increase hasn't eventuated.
Lazio's ability to function in possession ultimately relies on Luis Alberto's skillset, and one statistic stands out - even this season, the team has averaged 9.27 shots in open play per 90 minutes with him on the pitch, and 5.97 without. In addition, his impact on Immobile is profound.
Immobile's xG per open play shot (0.14 on/0.2 off) actually increases when Luis Alberto is off the pitch, but his quantity of open-play shots also goes down (3.15 on/2.27 off). Meanwhile, playing in Sarri's 4-3-3 requires more from him as a collaborative player with his back to goal, a relatively weak area of his play that contributed to respective struggles at Sevilla, Borussia Dortmund and the Italian national team.
In Inzaghi's 3-5-2, Immobile wasn't cramped for space and could still receive the ball between the lines, but in positions where he's able to face goal and go at defenders with momentum. This season, the 32-year-old striker has completed (0.6) and attempted (1.38) fewer dribbles than in any of his six seasons at Lazio.
On top of that, despite this season being his second highest so far for touches per 90 (42.67), Immobile is also creating less chances in open play per 90 (0.78) than in any of his six seasons at the Olimpico. Six penalties for the season brings his higher xG but lower xA per 90 into context, exposing a question of net gain.
This all provides the backdrop for Lazio's sizeable xG overperformance this season. It is ultimately propelling their contention for a Champions League place and obscuring just how volatile they have been defensively – exposing Francesco Acerbi's ability to play in a four-man defence as opposed to a three-man defence.
So far this season in Serie A, Lazio have scored the second-highest amount of goals with 58 and rank eighth for xG with 42.1, but aside from Hellas Verona (14.3), are a distant first (15.9) in differential between the two statistical categories.
With this all in context, the reality that Sarri will remain faithful to this 4-3-3 will arguably be to the detriment of Lazio's most important players under Inzaghi. Whether they stay or go, as long as Sarri stays, will determine how dramatic the eventual regression to the mean will be.
Cayon Rockets blank Old Road 3-0 to maintain lead atop SKNFA Premier League; Security Forces get rare win
Cayon Rockets maintained their position atop the St Kitts and Nevis Football Association Premier League following their 3-0 drubbing of MFCR Old Road United at Warner Park on Sunday.
Devontay Carty scored twice in the- 20th and 63rd minutes while Mervin Lewis sealed the victory with a third in the 68th.
Meanwhile, Bath United and Garden Hotspurs played to a 1-1 stalemate at the Nevis Athletics Stadium. Omarion Bartlette gave Bath the lead in the 13th minute. It was a lead they held until the 84th when Jeamaul Hodge pulled Hotspurs level to get a share of the points.
On Friday, a goal in each half led Security Forces to a 2-1 win over hosts Jones Group Sandy Point.
Everette Ritchen gave Security Forces the lead in the 30th minute. They held that lead until Zahmai Greene pulled Sandy Point level in the 65th minute. Parity didn’t last long as Donyelle Francis’ 70th minute goal gave Security Forces a rare win.
Meanwhile, Fast Cash Saddlers FC and St. Peters played to a nil-all draw, a result that Saddlers’ coach Samuel Phipps was happy to come away with.
“Picking up on point is good, we did not lose,” he said. “It was a fairly scrappy game but we came out with a point.”
St Peters’ boss Austin Huggins bemoaned his team’s missed chances.
“I think that we played well but too many chances went a begging,” he said. “We had chances to score, chances that I feel should have been goals, but we missed them; nevertheless, we’ve been able to get a point, looking forward to our next match.”
The weekend’s results, Cayon Rockets remain top of the table with 39 points after 16 matches while defending champions St. Paul’s United in second with 31 points, having played one game less. St Peters FC are third with 28 points with Old Road United Jets slipping to fourth with 27 points.
Village Superstars (24) and Conaree FC (24) are fifth and sixth, respectively. Newtown United has fallen to seventh on 23 points with Bath United just above the relegation playoff zone in eighth with 19 points.
Garden Hotspurs are in the relegation playoff spot with 16 points. The three regulation spots are occupied by Saddlers United, Security Forces, and Sandy Point FC with 12, nine, and two points, respectively.
Caglar Soyuncu and Daniel Amartey among seven players leaving Leicester
Leicester have confirmed seven players will depart the club at the end of their contracts in June, including Caglar Soyuncu and Daniel Amartey.
The announcement comes following the Foxes’ relegation to the Championship on the final day of the Premier League season last month.
Turkish defender Soyuncu joined in 2018 from Freiburg and has featured over 100 times for Leicester, while fellow centurion Amartey made his first appearances for the club during their Premier League title-winning season in 2016.
Youri Tielemans is also among those leaving, having announced his exit on Instagram last week after spending four years with the club since joining from Monaco in 2019.
Nampalys Mendy, Ryan Bertrand, Ayoze Perez and Tete are the remaining players who are to leave the King Power following the expiration of their contracts.
Captain Jonny Evans remains in discussions with the Foxes as his contract is set to expire this month, while an option has been exercised to extend Hamza Choudhury’s contract to June 2024.
Celtic boss Ange Postecoglou agrees deal to join Tottenham – reports
Celtic boss Ange Postecoglou has agreed to become Tottenham’s new manager on a two-year contract, according to reports.
The 57-year-old told Celtic principal shareholder Dermot Desmond on Saturday night of his decision to leave the Glasgow club and has now agreed a deal in principle with Spurs, with the option to extend.
Former Australia head coach Postecoglou admitted on Saturday, after Celtic’s Scottish FA Cup final win over Inverness had secured them the domestic treble, that his celebrations would soon be disrupted.
Neither club have commented but reports claim an announcement will be made when the finer details of the contract have been finalised.
Tottenham have been searching for a permanent new manager since sacking Antonio Conte in March, with first Cristian Stellini and then Ryan Mason placed in temporary charge.
When repeatedly pressed on his future after Celtic’s 3-1 Hampden win over Inverness on Saturday, Postecoglou said: “I anticipate enjoying this moment for the next 24-48 hours, as long as I can, before someone drags me away and takes my attention away from enjoying something that’s been hard-earned.
“The reality is, there’s probably players in that dressing room who won’t be here next year. That’s the nature of football.
“But I want them to enjoy it, I am going to enjoy it, and that’s all I am going to focus on until someone grabs me by the collar and tells me that I have to answer certain questions.”
He has won five domestic trophies out of a possible six after arriving from Yokohama F Marinos in 2021 and was linked with numerous Premier League clubs throughout this season.
Postecoglou became a hero with the Celtic support, not just for resuming their success after a barren season, but also for implementing an attacking style of play and his connection with the fans.
But he looks set to swap Glasgow for another rebuild job as Spurs finally look to appoint Conte’s permanent successor after the Italian’s departure on March 26.
Postecoglou is due to go on a family holiday on Tuesday and a deal could be finalised quickly.
Tottenham failed to qualify for European football next season for the first time since 2009-10 after an eighth-placed finish in the Premier League.
Former Hoops manager Brendan Rodgers has emerged as an unlikely favourite to succeed Postecoglou at Celtic, four years after leaving the club mid-season to take over at Leicester.
Assistant manager John Kennedy is also high up the list but reports claim Postecoglou hopes to take the former Celtic defender to Tottenham.
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