Is Maurizio Sarri getting the most out of Lazio? To help answer that, we arguably have to look to his coaching predecessor - Simone Inzaghi.
After five seasons of trying under Inzaghi's stewardship, the Biancocelesti finally qualified for the Champions League. There were seasons where they came agonisingly close too - particularly in 2017-18, where Inter beat them at the Stadio Olimpico on the final day of the Serie A season, to claim fourth place and the final spot in Europe's premier competition.
When they finally did qualify, last season’s 6-2 defeat on aggregate to Bayern Munich in the last-16 – and Inzaghi’s ensuing departure for Inter – was microcosmic of an overall sense the 45-year-old extracted the maximum out of the players he had at his disposal, within his system.
With Sunday's Rome derby in mind, despite the fact Lazio are currently fifth and again perceivably in the running for that last Champions League place, that's the arguable framework for how we must interpret Sarri's first season in the Italian capital.
It's not only pertinent to ask whether the 63-year-old is extracting the maximum out of this Lazio squad within his own system. Ultimately, are the players Sarri has at his disposal even compatible to that system?
One of the stronger case studies in this discussion is Luis Alberto. The Spaniard is arguably not only one of Serie A's most transformative midfielders, but in European football.
Since joining Lazio in 2016, within the framework of Inzaghi’s 3-5-2, the 29-year-old blossomed into an elite ball progressor and shot creator from a statistical standpoint. He holds five of the 10 highest ratings for passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes in Lazio's history - since Stats Perform's first recordings of the data in 2005-06.
Just as important as Luis Alberto's ability to create with the ball is his ability to act as a positional reference point, in order to create for others without it. His ability to drive and distribute is underpinned by an intelligent and assertive positional sense, which also compliments the likes of Ciro Immobile and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic - and the latter’s particular penchant for late entry into the penalty area.
Yet along with cramping him of the half-space to move into when Lazio are in possession, Sarri's 4-3-3 setup asks more of the Spaniard defensively - exacerbating his notoriously suspect ground coverage. The more energetic Toma Basic's August transfer from Bordeaux and initial scope under the new coach, in Luis Alberto's place, was conspicuous in this respect.
This all matters because under Sarri, only Napoli have kept the ball more than them in Serie A this season. Lazio rank 12th in Europe's top-five leagues combined for touches per 90, but 60th for shots in the penalty area per 90. It would take a sizeable increase in shot quality upon previous years to make that disparity more sustainable, weighing up qualitative and quantitative aspects. That increase hasn't eventuated.
Lazio's ability to function in possession ultimately relies on Luis Alberto's skillset, and one statistic stands out - even this season, the team has averaged 9.27 shots in open play per 90 minutes with him on the pitch, and 5.97 without. In addition, his impact on Immobile is profound.
Immobile's xG per open play shot (0.14 on/0.2 off) actually increases when Luis Alberto is off the pitch, but his quantity of open-play shots also goes down (3.15 on/2.27 off). Meanwhile, playing in Sarri's 4-3-3 requires more from him as a collaborative player with his back to goal, a relatively weak area of his play that contributed to respective struggles at Sevilla, Borussia Dortmund and the Italian national team.
In Inzaghi's 3-5-2, Immobile wasn't cramped for space and could still receive the ball between the lines, but in positions where he's able to face goal and go at defenders with momentum. This season, the 32-year-old striker has completed (0.6) and attempted (1.38) fewer dribbles than in any of his six seasons at Lazio.
On top of that, despite this season being his second highest so far for touches per 90 (42.67), Immobile is also creating less chances in open play per 90 (0.78) than in any of his six seasons at the Olimpico. Six penalties for the season brings his higher xG but lower xA per 90 into context, exposing a question of net gain.
This all provides the backdrop for Lazio's sizeable xG overperformance this season. It is ultimately propelling their contention for a Champions League place and obscuring just how volatile they have been defensively – exposing Francesco Acerbi's ability to play in a four-man defence as opposed to a three-man defence.
So far this season in Serie A, Lazio have scored the second-highest amount of goals with 58 and rank eighth for xG with 42.1, but aside from Hellas Verona (14.3), are a distant first (15.9) in differential between the two statistical categories.
With this all in context, the reality that Sarri will remain faithful to this 4-3-3 will arguably be to the detriment of Lazio's most important players under Inzaghi. Whether they stay or go, as long as Sarri stays, will determine how dramatic the eventual regression to the mean will be.
Hurtig the hero after late goal sends Arsenal into Champions League quarters
Lina Hurtig's 89th minute winner ensured Arsenal progressed to the quarter-finals of the Women's Champions League after edging Juventus 1-0 on Thursday.
After being frustrated for large parts of the encounter, Hurtig bundled home from close range after Martina Lenzini's poor clearance to book the Gunners' place in the last eight.
Despite Arsenal dominating the early exchanges, it was Juventus who had the first sight of goal, though Eva Schatzer's effort was easy for Daphne van Domselaar to gather.
In a first half that saw just two shots on target, both coming from the visitors, Renee Slegers' substitutes proved to be the difference for Arsenal.
Slegers introduced Beth Mead, Stina Blackstenius and Hurtig late on, with the latter somehow putting Kim Little's cross over the bar from five yards out.
However, the Swede would atone for her earlier error, combining with fellow substitute Blackstenius to net against her former club and send them out of the competition with two group games remaining.
Meanwhile, in Group D, Barcelona edged closer to the quarter-finals of the competition with a convincing 4-1 victory over St. Polten at the Generali Arena.
The reigning champions are still three points behind Manchester City following their 2-1 win over Hammarby, and know a win against the Swedes next month will see them progress.
Kika Nazareth opened the scoring in the 20th minute after capitalising on a mistake by Kamila Dubcova, notching her second nine minutes later from close range.
Barca found themselves three goals up at the break when Vicky Lopez netted her first goal in the competition to put the result beyond doubt.
There was also a landmark moment for Alexia Putellas, who netted her 200th goal for the club with a well-taken effort into the far corner.
Valentina Madl took some of the shine off an otherwise impressive display from the visitors, who have now taken their tally to 20 goals from their four matches in the competition.
Guardiola agrees two-year contract extension with Man City
Pep Guardiola will be Manchester City manager for at least two more seasons after 2024-25, after he signed a two-year contract extension on Thursday.
The 53-year-old was coming to the end of his City deal, which was due to expire at the end of the current campaign, but he has opted to remain at the Etihad Stadium.
The deal itself will take Guardiola's tenure at the club to over a decade, making him City's longest-serving manager since Les McDowall in 1963.
There had been suggestions that he may leave at the end of the season following the announcement that director of football Txiki Begiristain was on his way out.
Guardiola was strongly linked with the England job after Gareth Southgate resigned in the wake of their Euro 2024 final defeat, but the Football Association appointed Thomas Tuchel last month.
“Manchester City means so much to me," Guardiola said. “This is my ninth season here; we have experienced so many amazing times together. I have a really special feeling for this football club.
“That is why I am so happy to be staying for another two more seasons.
“Thank you to everyone for continuing to trust and support me – The Owner, The Chairman Khaldoon, Ferran, Txiki, the players and, of course, the fans… everyone connected to Manchester City. It has always been an honour, a pleasure and a privilege to be here.
“I have said this many times before, but I have everything a manager could ever wish for, and I appreciate that so much.
“Hopefully, now we can add more trophies to the ones we have already won. That will be my focus.”
Having been appointed in 2016, Guardiola is by some distance Manchester City's most successful manager of all time, having won 18 major trophies during his time at the club.
That list includes their first-ever Champions League triumph in 2023 and six Premier League titles, including an unprecedented four on the spin.
He also boasts a 72.04% win percentage across all competitions, which is unsurprisingly the highest of any full-time City manager in history.
Shaw at the double as Man City progress in Champions League
Khadija Shaw scored twice as Manchester City beat Hammarby 2-1 to seal their place in the Women's Champions League quarter-finals.
Gareth Taylor's team entered Thursday's game with a perfect record in Group D, and their fourth win in as many European matches ensured they finished in the top two.
Shaw—the leading scorer in the Women's Super League this season with eight goals—put them ahead in the 31st minute, driving into the area after taking in Yui Hasegawa's pass before seeing her shot deflect into the top corner.
Shaw was booked for celebrating in front of the home fans despite appearing to have objects thrown at her from the stands, and Hammarby should have levelled when Julia Blakstad fired wide 10 minutes later.
The hosts did draw level three minutes into the second half as Ellen Wangerheim tapped home while City's Laura Blindkilde Brown was down appealing for a free-kick.
That parity was short-lived, though, as Shaw blasted into the top corner from 25 yards out, taking her overall tally for this season to 12 goals in all competitions.
In Group C, meanwhile, Bayern Munich lost their perfect record as they played out a 1-1 draw with Valerenga, boosting Arsenal's hopes of topping the pile.
Jovana Damnjanovic came off the bench to put Bayern ahead 15 minutes from time in Norway, but Elise Thorsnes headed home following an 88th-minute corner to snatch a point for the hosts.
Arsenal could now move within a point of Bayern when they face Juventus in Group C's other match later on Thursday.
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