Is Maurizio Sarri getting the most out of Lazio? To help answer that, we arguably have to look to his coaching predecessor - Simone Inzaghi.
After five seasons of trying under Inzaghi's stewardship, the Biancocelesti finally qualified for the Champions League. There were seasons where they came agonisingly close too - particularly in 2017-18, where Inter beat them at the Stadio Olimpico on the final day of the Serie A season, to claim fourth place and the final spot in Europe's premier competition.
When they finally did qualify, last season’s 6-2 defeat on aggregate to Bayern Munich in the last-16 – and Inzaghi’s ensuing departure for Inter – was microcosmic of an overall sense the 45-year-old extracted the maximum out of the players he had at his disposal, within his system.
With Sunday's Rome derby in mind, despite the fact Lazio are currently fifth and again perceivably in the running for that last Champions League place, that's the arguable framework for how we must interpret Sarri's first season in the Italian capital.
It's not only pertinent to ask whether the 63-year-old is extracting the maximum out of this Lazio squad within his own system. Ultimately, are the players Sarri has at his disposal even compatible to that system?
One of the stronger case studies in this discussion is Luis Alberto. The Spaniard is arguably not only one of Serie A's most transformative midfielders, but in European football.
Since joining Lazio in 2016, within the framework of Inzaghi’s 3-5-2, the 29-year-old blossomed into an elite ball progressor and shot creator from a statistical standpoint. He holds five of the 10 highest ratings for passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes in Lazio's history - since Stats Perform's first recordings of the data in 2005-06.
Just as important as Luis Alberto's ability to create with the ball is his ability to act as a positional reference point, in order to create for others without it. His ability to drive and distribute is underpinned by an intelligent and assertive positional sense, which also compliments the likes of Ciro Immobile and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic - and the latter’s particular penchant for late entry into the penalty area.
Yet along with cramping him of the half-space to move into when Lazio are in possession, Sarri's 4-3-3 setup asks more of the Spaniard defensively - exacerbating his notoriously suspect ground coverage. The more energetic Toma Basic's August transfer from Bordeaux and initial scope under the new coach, in Luis Alberto's place, was conspicuous in this respect.
This all matters because under Sarri, only Napoli have kept the ball more than them in Serie A this season. Lazio rank 12th in Europe's top-five leagues combined for touches per 90, but 60th for shots in the penalty area per 90. It would take a sizeable increase in shot quality upon previous years to make that disparity more sustainable, weighing up qualitative and quantitative aspects. That increase hasn't eventuated.
Lazio's ability to function in possession ultimately relies on Luis Alberto's skillset, and one statistic stands out - even this season, the team has averaged 9.27 shots in open play per 90 minutes with him on the pitch, and 5.97 without. In addition, his impact on Immobile is profound.
Immobile's xG per open play shot (0.14 on/0.2 off) actually increases when Luis Alberto is off the pitch, but his quantity of open-play shots also goes down (3.15 on/2.27 off). Meanwhile, playing in Sarri's 4-3-3 requires more from him as a collaborative player with his back to goal, a relatively weak area of his play that contributed to respective struggles at Sevilla, Borussia Dortmund and the Italian national team.
In Inzaghi's 3-5-2, Immobile wasn't cramped for space and could still receive the ball between the lines, but in positions where he's able to face goal and go at defenders with momentum. This season, the 32-year-old striker has completed (0.6) and attempted (1.38) fewer dribbles than in any of his six seasons at Lazio.
On top of that, despite this season being his second highest so far for touches per 90 (42.67), Immobile is also creating less chances in open play per 90 (0.78) than in any of his six seasons at the Olimpico. Six penalties for the season brings his higher xG but lower xA per 90 into context, exposing a question of net gain.
This all provides the backdrop for Lazio's sizeable xG overperformance this season. It is ultimately propelling their contention for a Champions League place and obscuring just how volatile they have been defensively – exposing Francesco Acerbi's ability to play in a four-man defence as opposed to a three-man defence.
So far this season in Serie A, Lazio have scored the second-highest amount of goals with 58 and rank eighth for xG with 42.1, but aside from Hellas Verona (14.3), are a distant first (15.9) in differential between the two statistical categories.
With this all in context, the reality that Sarri will remain faithful to this 4-3-3 will arguably be to the detriment of Lazio's most important players under Inzaghi. Whether they stay or go, as long as Sarri stays, will determine how dramatic the eventual regression to the mean will be.
Women's Super League predictions: Chelsea boss Bompastor backed to break record
Just three sides remain without a defeat heading into matchday eight of the Women's Super League season, but two of the early pacesetters square off this Saturday.
Manchester City and Chelsea lead the way in the early-season standings, though Sonia Bompastor's Blues are yet to drop a point from their six games thus far.
That blockbuster encounter, set for Saturday, headlines the upcoming WSL weekend, but there is also plenty more to whet the appetite.
Brighton will be looking to keep pace with the top two against West Ham, while a North London Derby is in the offing between Tottenham and Arsenal.
Sunday's action sees winless Everton square off against Merseyside rivals Liverpool, while Manchester United travel to the King Power Stadium to take on Leicester City.
But who does the Opta supercomputer predict will emerge victorious this time around? Here, we delve into the pre-match facts for each of this weekend's fixtures.
BRIGHTON V WEST HAM
Brighton have been the surprise package of the WSL this term, sitting third in the standings, but they were on the end of a 5-0 defeat to a rejuvenated Arsenal last time out.
Despite the Seagulls' heavy defeat, they are handed a win probability of 51.3%, with West Ham given a 23.9% chance of following up their victory over Leicester with another three points. A draw is given a 24.8% likelihood of happening.
Brighton have won six of their last eight WSL meetings with West Ham (D1 L1), with the Seagulls winning more games against the Hammers than any other opponent in the competition (seven).
They won four straight matches at the Amex between 2019 and 2022 but are winless in three games at the venue since (D1 L2), including a 1-1 draw with Manchester United last month.
West Ham have won just one of their last 14 away games in the Women’s Super League (D3 L10), conceding in each of those matches; the Hammers could now equal their longest run of away matches in the competition without a clean sheet (15 in December 2020).
But Hammers boss Rehanne Skinner has won each of her last four WSL games against Brighton without conceding, a run that includes her biggest ever victory in the competition, winning 8-0 with Tottenham in October 2022.
TOTTENHAM V ARSENAL
Renee Slegers maintained her unbeaten start as Arsenal's interim head coach with arguably the most dominant display of her tenure, beating Juventus 4-0 in midweek.
And she is predicted to continue her winning streak this weekend, with Arsenal handed a whopping win probability of 67.2%, the largest of any side on matchday eight.
Tottenham, who were on the end of a 4-0 thrashing by Man City last time out, are given a 14.9% chance of victory, with the threat of a draw at 17.9%.
Arsenal have won seven of their nine games against Tottenham in the WSL and have either kept a clean sheet (five) or conceded exactly once (four) in each of those meetings.
Following their 5-0 win over Brighton, Arsenal will be looking to win back-to-back WSL games for the first time this season. This is the Gunners’ longest wait for consecutive wins from the start of a WSL season since 2016 (ninth game).
Tottenham have won only one of their nine meetings with Arsenal in the WSL (D1 L7), but that sole victory did come in this fixture last season, winning 1-0 thanks to a Martha Thomas goal.
Only Vivianne Miedema (eight) has scored more WSL goals in the North London Derby than Arsenal’s Caitlin Foord. She has netted seven times in just eight league appearances against Spurs and will be looking to build on her goal against Juve in midweek.
CHELSEA V MAN CITY
The standout fixture of matchday eight sees Stamford Bridge host Chelsea's top-of-the-table clash with Man City.
Despite Gareth Taylor's side sitting at the summit of the standings, they are handed a 22.5% win probability, with the Blues' hopes of salvaging a point ranked slightly higher at 23.7%. Chelsea, meanwhile, won 53.7% of Opta's data-led simulations.
Bompastor could become the first ever manager to win each of their first seven games in the WSL. Her Blues are aiming to become the third team in WSL history to win each of their opening seven games of a campaign after this weekend's opponents did so in 2017-18 (finished 2nd) and Arsenal did so in 2018-19 (finished 1st).
Chelsea have also won all six of their previous matches at Stamford Bridge in the WSL by an aggregate score of 17-4, the most games any team has ever played in the competition at a home venue while maintaining a 100% record.
However, City are unbeaten in their last three WSL meetings with Chelsea (W2 D1) while only Arsenal (10) have recorded more wins over the Blues in the competition than the Citizens (seven).
City have also won 17 of their 19 WSL games in 2024 (D1 L1) and could win 18 top-flight games in a single calendar year for the very first time.
ASTON VILLA V CRYSTAL PALACE
Aston Villa are one of only two sides in the division yet to record a win this season, but are predicted to get their first three points on the board at home to Crystal Palace.
Opta's data-led simulations favoured the Villans in 51.1% of instances. A draw is given a 24.8% chance of happening, with Palace handed a win probability of just 24.1%.
This will be the second meeting between the two sides already this season, with the Villans winning 2-0 at home in a League Cup group-stage game in October.
This will, however, be the first time Palace have faced Villa in a league game since September 2019, when the Eagles suffered a 6-0 home loss to the eventual 2019-20 Championship winners.
Crystal Palace have won four points from their three away games in the WSL so far this season (W1 D1 L1), becoming just the third newly promoted side to do so after Tottenham in 2019-20 (six) and Aston Villa in 2020-21 (six). No such team has ever picked up seven points from their first four matches on the road in a single campaign.
But Villa are unbeaten in six previous WSL games against newly promoted opposition (W4 D2), though they did draw their last two such home matches (3-3 v Liverpool, 2-2 v Bristol City), and have kept two clean sheets in their last four league games, the same number of shutouts as they managed across their previous 15 WSL matches.
EVERTON V LIVERPOOL
Everton's 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace saw them pick up just their third point of the season, but they will be hoping to earn their first three points of the year against rivals Liverpool.
The Toffees are handed a 32.6% win probability compared to Liverpool's 41.9%, the closest margin between any two sides on matchday eight. A draw is given a 25.5% likelihood.
Everton, however, have won four of their last seven meetings with Liverpool in the WSL (D2 L1), more than they managed in their first 10 Merseyside Derbies in the competition (W3 D3 L4).
But they have struggled at Goodison Park. They have not won a WSL game in four attempts at the iconic stadium (D2 L2), failing to score in three of those games. Their most recent such match came earlier this month, losing 5-0 to Chelsea.
While the Reds are winless in their last three trips across Stanley Park, they are enjoying their longest ever unbeaten run away from home in the WSL, going eight without defeat since losing to Man City in January (W6 D2). Only Chelsea (nine) and City (eight) have won more times on the road in the top flight in 2024 than the Reds (six).
The Reds' Marie-Therese Hobinger will be the player to watch. She has created more chances from set-pieces than any other player in the WSL this season (10), while each of her seven assists in the competition have come via corners.
LEICESTER V MAN UTD
One of two games that conclude the weekend's action takes place in the East Midlands, with Man United, the third team without a loss this term, taking on Leicester.
The Red Devils are, unsurprisingly, favoured by Opta's data-led simulations and are handed a 66.7% chance of emerging victorious. Leicester are given just a 15.2% chance of winning, with a draw valued at 18.1%.
Though they are unbeaten in the WSL this season, United have drawn their last three league matches. The last team to draw four in a row in the competition was Aston Villa in May 2021 (five in a row).
United have conceded just twice in their opening six league games this season, with only Man City in 2016 (0) and 2019-20 (one) and Arsenal in 2022-23 (one) ever leaking fewer goals at this stage of a campaign. The Red Devils’ opponents have by far the worst conversion rate in the competition this term, however (2.9%).
The Foxes are winless in six previous meetings with United in the WSL (D1 L5), only facing Arsenal (P7 L7) and Villa (P7 D2 L5) more often in the competition without winning.
Elisabeth Terland has scored three goals in her last two WSL appearances against Leicester, with the striker only netting in more games in the competition against Tottenham (four different games).
'England comes before anything' – Kane unhappy with Three Lions withdrawals
Harry Kane has questioned the number of players withdrawing from the latest England squad, insisting the national team "comes before anything".
England face Greece and the Republic of Ireland in their final two matches in Nations League Group B2 this week, also their last two games under interim head coach Lee Carsley before Thomas Tuchel takes over in January.
Eight players have withdrawn from Carsley's squad – Trent Alexander-Arnold, Cole Palmer, Phil Foden, Jack Grealish, Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice, Aaron Ramsdale and Levi Colwill.
In an interview with ITV Sport on Wednesday, Three Lions skipper Kane appeared to question the commitment of those dropping out.
"I think England comes before anything. England comes before club," Kane said.
"England is the most important thing you play as a professional footballer and Gareth [Southgate] was hot on that and he wasn't afraid to make decisions if, you know, that started to drift from certain players.
"It's a shame this week obviously. I think it's a tough period of the season, maybe that's been taken advantage of a little bit.
"I don't really like it if I'm totally honest. I think England comes before anything, any club situation."
England likely need to beat Greece – who claimed a 2-1 victory at Wembley Stadium last month – to have any chance of winning automatic promotion back to League A.
Should the Three Lions finish second, they will face a third-placed finisher from League A – potentially Poland, Belgium, Hungary or Serbia – in a promotion play-off tie in March.
Boyz coach McClaren calls for resilience, precision against United States in crucial Nations League quarterfinal
Jamaica’s Head coach Steve McClaren has once again emphasized the importance of mental toughness and consistency as his Reggae Boyz brace for their highly anticipated home-and-away Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal showdown against the United States.
Knowing that this encounter represents a major test in their journey through the tournament, McClaren is urging his players to seize the opportunity and embrace the challenge against a formidable opponent in first leg action at the National Stadium on Thursday.
Start time is at 8:00pm.
McClaren, who steered the Reggae Boyz through an encouraging group stage, where they won two and draw two to finish atop Group B, remains laser-focused on the team’s principles of resilience, ball control, and tactical discipline.
“This is the game we’ve been working toward. Our main goal was to get out of the group and reach a stage to play against a big team that would challenge us and there's no bigger team than the USA. This is a step up and a test for how far we've come and where we need to get to,” McClaren said in a pre-match press conference.
The stakes are heightened by the absence of influential striker Michail Antonio, who faces a one-match suspension, alongside the injured Ethan Pinnock and Bobby Reid, the latter having just welcomed a new addition to his family.
Still, McClaren remains unfazed and will lean heavily on his squad depth, entrusting both veterans and newcomers to adapt and deliver with resolve, as they look to take a decisive step forward.
“One of our principles is to be hard to beat,” McClaren said, as he stressed the need for both defensive solidity and confidence on the ball.
“We have to deal with the ball better, show bravery, and avoid giving away possession too easily. The last time we faced the USA, many of their chances came from transitions when we gave the ball away. That’s something we must control and be careful of. But the players have shown that they've got that mentality to win games and different ways to win games and we'll need all those ingredients against a very, very good and very strong USA team,” he added.
To improve the Boyz possession game, McClaren is set to rely on Newcastle United’s Isaac Hayden, who is set to make his debut in central midfield. The tactician hopes that Hayden will bring the critical link in stabilizing their build-up play and foster creativity in advancing the ball fluidly and also to retain control under pressure.
“This is probably one of the reasons why we're not creating enough chances. So that will be one of the responsibilities when Isaac plays, is to create that link from the back to the front and also to get out of tight areas. We know that he's smart and dealing with the ball is one of our major goals with this team.
“So by the time next year comes around to World Cup qualification, we want everybody in the team who are able to deal with the ball…that's from the goalkeeper all the way through to the bench. We're starting to build that, but we still got a long way to go,” the Englishman shared.
Though United States lead the head-to-head 20 wins to Jamaica’s three in what has been a longstanding rivalry between the two nations, McClaren believes the Boyz have made significant strides in driving fear into their opponents.
They went close to a win in the last Nations League edition where they led United States from the first minute but conceded in stoppage time and eventually lost 1-3 in that semi-final clash.
For McClaren, the ultimate goal extends beyond Thursday’s game, as he envisions this match as a valuable step in building a consistent and competitive team for World Cup qualification.
"The key thing is consistency. We need to be consistent in what we do...with that consistency will come performance, and that’s how we progress and get better," he explained.
"We’re getting closer, and it’s only a matter of time. As long as we keep belief and confidence and don’t look at the opponent with fear, but as a challenge and tomorrow, we want to embrace that challenge. I'm so encouraged by what I've seen that I'm excited about the future,” McClaren declared.
That said, McClaren is optimistic that the team's unique athleticism and mental resolve will shine through.
“We have good speed and athleticism. It’s no secret; they know it, we know it. We’ll need to use that to our advantage while staying well-organized and resilient in transition,” he ended.
Meanwhile, Isaac Hayden declared his commitment to giving of his best in the team’s bid to not only make another Nations League semi-final, but also secure qualification to the next Concacaf Gold Cup.
“Anyone that knows me or seen me play knows that I'm a highly committed player and someone that gives 110% every moment of every game, every training session. I always want to win. Obviously we've got two massive games coming up and I think it's just for me to bed in, contribute as much as I can, however many minutes that is, and give 110% and see where that takes us,” Hayden declared.
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