If you want an underdog story in the Champions League last 16, then Tuesday's action should not disappoint.
Salzburg are likely to have the support of most neutrals when they visit heavyweights Bayern Munich in the second leg of their tie, having drawn the first leg 1-1 in Austria.
Inter are less used to being the team trying to spring the upset, but their task is a much taller one against a Liverpool side holding a 2-0 lead from the game in Milan.
And as the Opta data reveals, neither Salzburg nor Inter have much statistical reason for hope of progression.
Bayern Munich v Salzburg
Bayern staved off a surprise defeat in the first leg thanks to Kingsley Coman's late equaliser, and history is firmly on their side in the return match.
Indeed, Bayern have won all five of their games in European competition when hosting an Austrian opponent, scoring 15 goals and only conceding three in return. They have also progressed from five of their previous seven Champions League knockout ties when drawing away from home in the first leg.
Should Salzburg do what is considered close to the impossible and prevail at the Allianz Arena, they will end a long wait for Austrian sides in Europe's top competition. They are looking to become the first Austrian side to progress beyond the last 16 in the European Cup/Champions League since Austria Wien in the 1984-85 campaign.
Salzburg are, however, winless away from home in the Champions League this season (D1 L2) and have only won once away from home in the competition across the last two campaigns (D1 L4) – a 3-1 victory at Lokomotiv Moscow in December 2020.
Bayern talisman Robert Lewandowski was kept abnormally quiet in the first leg. He did not attempt any of Bayern's 22 shots, marking the first time in his career he has not recorded a shot attempt in consecutive Champions League appearances (77 minutes played v Barcelona and 90 minutes v Salzburg – zero shots).
Keeping Lewandowski under wraps for a third successive game in the competition seems highly unlikely, but Salzburg will almost certainly need to do so if they are to defy the odds.
Liverpool v Inter
Jurgen Klopp was keen to reject any talk of Liverpool being in a comfortable position in this tie following a 2-0 win at San Siro.
But all the signs are against Inter pulling off a turnaround at Anfield. Only one team in Champions League history has lost the first leg of a knockout stage tie by two or more goals at home and still gone on to progress, with Manchester United doing so against Paris Saint-Germain in the 2018-19 last 16 (0-2 at home, 3-1 away).
Inter's record in England does not inspire optimism. The Nerazzurri have lost four of their previous five away games against English sides in the Champions League (W1), although their victory in this run did come the last time one of these fixtures came in the knockout stages of the competition – 1-0 v Chelsea in the last 16 in 2009-10; a season in which they went on to lift the trophy.
If they are to turn the tie on its head, then Edin Dzeko may be the man to provide the goals. He has scored in three of his last four starts at Anfield across all competitions, including the most recent two.
The Bosnia-Herzegovina forward has not finished on the winning side in any of these three games, however, drawing 2-2 in 2012 and losing 2-1 in 2015 with Manchester City and losing 5-2 with Roma in 2018.
And as they discovered in the first leg, Inter will be coming up against one of Europe's stiffest defences. Since the start of the 2017-18 season, Liverpool have kept more clean sheets in Champions League home games than any other team (15 in 24 games). In fact, among teams who have played more than 10 home matches in the competition in this period, their clean sheet percentage of 63 per cent is also the best of any side.
Wolves v Arsenal: ‘What we still have to play for is beautiful’ – Arteta
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta set out to remind his team that they still have something “beautiful” to play for despite their Champions League exit.
The Gunners slipped out of UEFA’s flagship club competition in midweek when they went down 1-0 to Bayern Munich, losing 3-2 on aggregate.
That defeat followed on from a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa last Sunday – a reverse that significantly dented Arsenal’s title hopes, with the Gunners now two points behind Manchester City who, after this weekend, will have a game in hand.
Arsenal face Wolves on Saturday and, with City in FA Cup action, a win would see them move back to the top of the table, at least temporarily, so Arteta offered a reminder that all is not lost.
“I can guarantee you we are fully focused on Wolves and everybody's lifted,” he said following the loss in Munich.
“What we still have to play is beautiful and I said before, it's time to be next to our players and in this moment, not when you win 10 in a row and a draw, that's easy to prize our players and to be behind them and to say really nice things. The moment is now to be next to them.”
On Friday, in his pre-match press conference, Arteta added: “As an experience, [the Champions League was] the best one.
“I am now fully focused on the times ahead of us. We are now behind Manchester City and will give it a good go. The context is clear. If we win we are top of the league.”
Wolves sit 11th, though they could do with snapping a four-game winless streak in order to get their European hopes back on track.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Wolves – Matheus Cunha
Cunha has been involved in nine goals in his last nine Premier League games, scoring six and assisting three. His 11 goals overall this season is the fourth most by a Wolves player in a single Premier League campaign after Raul Jimenez (17 in 2019-20, 13 in 2018-19) and Steven Fletcher (12 in 2011-12).
Arsenal – Bukayo Saka
Saka has been involved in eight goals in his last seven Premier League away games, scoring seven and assisting one. His 13 away goal involvements overall this term (eight goals, five assists) is the most by an Arsenal player in a single Premier League campaign since Alexis Sanchez’s 20 in 2016-17.
MATCH PREDICTION: ARSENAL WIN
Arsenal lost a Premier League game for the first time in 2024 against Villa last time out. Since the start of last season, only twice have the Gunners suffered consecutive league defeats, doing so in May 2023 (v Brighton and Nottingham Forest) and December this season (v West Ham and Fulham).
Wolves are winless in their last four Premier League games (D2 L2), though they have won their last two at Molineux against sides starting the day in the top two of the table, beating Man City 2-1 in September and Spurs by the same score in November.
Arsenal have scored in their last 32 meetings with Wolves in all competitions.
Wolves have now lost each of their last five against the Gunners, failing to score in both home defeats in that run.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Wolves – 21.5%
Arsenal – 51.2%
Draw – 27.3%
We’ll throw everything at title bid – Trent Alexander-Arnold
Liverpool defender Trent Alexander-Arnold insists the squad plan to “throw everything” at their final six matches of the season as they try to finish Jurgen Klopp’s final season on a high.
Only a month ago the talk was still of an unprecedented quadruple with the Carabao Cup already in the trophy cabinet but FA Cup and Europa League exits, plus a slip-up in the league, has left them with just one focus.
The task of overhauling Manchester City’s two-point advantage, and also getting ahead of Arsenal, is not an inconsiderable one but Alexander-Arnold said in the aftermath of their Europa League exit to Atalanta despite a 1-0 victory in Bergamo that the players had spoken about what remained of their campaign.
“After the game we spoke quite positively about the rest of the season. We’ve got a month left and we need to give it everything,” said the England international.
“That’s what we are going to do, we are going to throw everything at it and try to do all that we can.
“We know it’s not in our hands any more but we need to be as good as possible and just be in the best position that we can to capitalise if teams do slip up.”
Against Atalanta Alexander-Arnold made his first start since mid-February following a knee injury and in the first half in particular looked like he had never been away, dictating play after being given licence to roam from his nominal right-back position.
The team faded in the second half and the 25-year-old was withdrawn after 72 minutes but he will have a key part to play in the last six matches.
“I think I just ran out of juice in the second half but in the first half I was enjoying my football, finding passes, playing the game I love,” he told the club’s official website.
“I think you can tell by the way I played it was special for me to be back out there and help the team win the game.”
Liverpool head to Fulham on Sunday with the chance to overtake City, who play in the FA Cup semi-final, before a Merseyside derby against Everton at Goodison Park in midweek and then a trip to West Ham.
“We have got a huge game that we need to go and win,” added Alexander-Arnold.
“We have got a very difficult week ahead of us, three away games that we need to win and get results in and that’s our aim now.”
Jurgen Klopp: Liverpool can secure Premier League crown with perfect finish
Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp remains positive about their place in the title race and still believes if they win all remaining six matches they will be Premier League champions again.
A difficult run of results – starting with a draw at Manchester United and followed by home defeats to Atalanta and Crystal Palace – ended with a 1-0 Europa League victory in Bergamo but that could not prevent their exit from the Europa League 3-1 on aggregate at the quarter-final stage.
A first clean sheet in 10 matches was a boost to confidence, especially as they continue to struggle to find their best form at the other end of the pitch, and Klopp thinks the two-point gap to leaders Manchester City can be overhauled with a perfect run in.
“It’s not obviously in our hands, it is not about that,” said Klopp.
“I think if we would win all our games there is a good chance we will be champion. If not there is a good chance someone else will be champion.
“Maybe we only have to win five, but nobody knows. Who would have thought that Arsenal lose against Aston Villa?
“We all sit here and think ‘OK, yeah. City will win all their games’ and that’s happened quite frequently, but they have a lot of games to play and difficult opponents as well.
“We don’t think about that. We don’t think about them. It is just how can we make sure we start wining games again.”
Over the course of their recent rivalry, Liverpool have had a couple of seasons where the race to the line with City has seen them miss out by just a point despite matching each other win-for-win for the majority of the run in.
But Klopp said that experience was not necessarily as positive as onlookers may believe.
“When we were in the position we didn’t win the league in the end. We lost by a point and stuff like that. What kind of experience is that?” he added.
“We know how to get there – and then don’t (win). It’s not about that.
“It’s good to know that you are good and you can cause other teams problems.
“But the thing is clear: if you want to be champion in the Premier League you have to be close to perfect and if you are not perfect you have to deal with the setbacks in the best possible way or in a perfect way.
“That is what we are now doing. We had a setback week with three games we didn’t like too much, the results especially, and now we have to start turning it around.”
Key to turning things around will be a change in fortunes in front of goal.
Three goals in their last four matches has stalled their progress with the forwards failing to take numerous opportunities they have created.
Mohamed Salah, whom Klopp defended after he missed a key chance to make it 2-0 against Atalanta, has scored six – two of which were penalties – in 11 matches since returning from two months out with a hamstring injury.
Luis Diaz has two in eight games, Darwin Nunez and Cody Gakpo have just one in their last seven, while Diogo Jota has yet to find the net in three appearances since returning injury.
“We had good moments and had an awful lot of chances, and didn’t use one of them more of less,” said Klopp.
“That’s not great but the worst thing in football is not to have chances. It is better you deal with chances you miss than you have no chances.
“That’s why I’m absolutely positive and after processing things properly, yeah, I’m more than happy with the situation.”
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