Inter out to replicate Man Utd feat, history stacked against Salzburg – Champions League in Opta numbers

By Sports Desk March 08, 2022

If you want an underdog story in the Champions League last 16, then Tuesday's action should not disappoint.

Salzburg are likely to have the support of most neutrals when they visit heavyweights Bayern Munich in the second leg of their tie, having drawn the first leg 1-1 in Austria.

Inter are less used to being the team trying to spring the upset, but their task is a much taller one against a Liverpool side holding a 2-0 lead from the game in Milan.

And as the Opta data reveals, neither Salzburg nor Inter have much statistical reason for hope of progression.

Bayern Munich v Salzburg

Bayern staved off a surprise defeat in the first leg thanks to Kingsley Coman's late equaliser, and history is firmly on their side in the return match.

Indeed, Bayern have won all five of their games in European competition when hosting an Austrian opponent, scoring 15 goals and only conceding three in return. They have also progressed from five of their previous seven Champions League knockout ties when drawing away from home in the first leg. 

Should Salzburg do what is considered close to the impossible and prevail at the Allianz Arena, they will end a long wait for Austrian sides in Europe's top competition. They are looking to become the first Austrian side to progress beyond the last 16 in the European Cup/Champions League since Austria Wien in the 1984-85 campaign.

Salzburg are, however, winless away from home in the Champions League this season (D1 L2) and have only won once away from home in the competition across the last two campaigns (D1 L4) – a 3-1 victory at Lokomotiv Moscow in December 2020.

Bayern talisman Robert Lewandowski was kept abnormally quiet in the first leg. He did not attempt any of Bayern's 22 shots, marking the first time in his career he has not recorded a shot attempt in consecutive Champions League appearances (77 minutes played v Barcelona and 90 minutes v Salzburg – zero shots).

Keeping Lewandowski under wraps for a third successive game in the competition seems highly unlikely, but Salzburg will almost certainly need to do so if they are to defy the odds.

Liverpool v Inter

Jurgen Klopp was keen to reject any talk of Liverpool being in a comfortable position in this tie following a 2-0 win at San Siro.

But all the signs are against Inter pulling off a turnaround at Anfield. Only one team in Champions League history has lost the first leg of a knockout stage tie by two or more goals at home and still gone on to progress, with Manchester United doing so against Paris Saint-Germain in the 2018-19 last 16 (0-2 at home, 3-1 away).

Inter's record in England does not inspire optimism. The Nerazzurri have lost four of their previous five away games against English sides in the Champions League (W1), although their victory in this run did come the last time one of these fixtures came in the knockout stages of the competition – 1-0 v Chelsea in the last 16 in 2009-10; a season in which they went on to lift the trophy.

If they are to turn the tie on its head, then Edin Dzeko may be the man to provide the goals. He has scored in three of his last four starts at Anfield across all competitions, including the most recent two.

The Bosnia-Herzegovina forward has not finished on the winning side in any of these three games, however, drawing 2-2 in 2012 and losing 2-1 in 2015 with Manchester City and losing 5-2 with Roma in 2018.

And as they discovered in the first leg, Inter will be coming up against one of Europe's stiffest defences. Since the start of the 2017-18 season, Liverpool have kept more clean sheets in Champions League home games than any other team (15 in 24 games). In fact, among teams who have played more than 10 home matches in the competition in this period, their clean sheet percentage of 63 per cent is also the best of any side.

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    Arne Slot is relishing Liverpool's upcoming double-header against Real Madrid and Manchester City.

    Liverpool came from behind thanks to Mohamed Salah's second-half double to beat Southampton 3-2 on Sunday.

    That victory at St Mary's moved the Reds eight points clear of Man City, who were thrashed 4-0 at home by Tottenham on Saturday for a fifth straight defeat in all competitions.

    Pep Guardiola's team visit Anfield on December 1, though first the Reds host European champions Madrid in the Champions League.

    And Slot cannot wait for Liverpool to go up against two heavyweights.

    "It's what you need in a league like this, with so many quality teams. You have to keep winning because if you don’t, the other ones will," the Dutchman told BBC Sport.

    "That's what we try to do every game, now it's Real Madrid and next Sunday it's Man City.

    "You couldn't wish for more than playing these two games in the upcoming week, at home."

    No manager in Premier League history has reached 10 wins in fewer matches from the start of their career in the competition than Slot (12 games, level with Guus Hiddink and Carlo Ancelotti).

    Liverpool were indebted to Salah, however, with the forward dragging them level and then converting the winner from the penalty spot after Mateus Fernandes had put Southampton into a surprise lead early in the second half, following goals from Dominik Szoboszlai and Adam Armstrong before the break.

    Salah became the first player to score in five successive Premier League appearances for Liverpool since the Egyptian himself in October 2021 (seven in a row). His second goal was his 100th away from Anfield for Liverpool in all competitions.

    "It was very good that Mo scored in that moment," said Slot of Salah's first goal, which came in the 65th minute when he nudged Ryan Gravenberch's pass beyond the stranded Alex McCarthy.

    "It was not the best period of the game so he helped us with that and then afterwards we dominated so much, they got tired.

    "That is what special players do. They can score goals out of nowhere. It's not completely out of nowhere because the assist of Gravenberch is a great ball as well, but Mo is known for the timing of his runs, he feels the right moment to run behind the last line, and normally you know he’s not offside because he always finds the right moment, and then he scores the goal, which was very helpful for us."

    While Slot acknowledged Liverpool were tested by the Premier League's bottom club, he felt his team were always in control.

    He added: "It wasn't a surprise for us, we saw how they played against Man City, Arsenal and Newcastle in away games, never mind how they would play in a home game against a top team. But we dominated. Because we went down 2-1, it made it really difficult for us.

    "We dominated the whole game, which is not that easy against Southampton because they want possession, they want to dominate the game as well, but they couldn't. Because the scoreline was as it was, it felt like a difficult match, but if you look at the underlying numbers we deserved to win."

    Those metrics support Slot's point. Liverpool accumulated 2.9 expected goals from 27 shots, 11 of which were on target, while they also limited Southampton to 37.9% possession.

  • Southampton 2-3 Liverpool: Salah brace sends Reds eight points clear Southampton 2-3 Liverpool: Salah brace sends Reds eight points clear

    Liverpool went eight points clear at the top of the Premier League as they came from behind to seal a thrilling 3-2 victory over Southampton at St Mary's.

    Two second-half goals from Mohamed Salah turned Sunday's game on its head after Mateus Fernandes had given bottom club Southampton a surprise 2-1 lead.

    Dominik Szoboszlai had given Liverpool a 30th-minute lead by curling home via the far post after Flynn Downes' dreadful clearance landed at his feet inside the area.

    However, the outstanding Tyler Dibling was felled by Andrew Robertson for a Southampton penalty on the stroke of half-time. Adam Armstrong's spot-kick was repelled by Caoimhin Kelleher, but the striker kept his nerve to tuck home the equaliser.

    Armstrong then turned provider when Fernandes swept home Southampton's second in the 56th minute, but their lead would not last.

    Salah cushioned a searching Ryan Gravenberch pass beyond a stranded Alex McCarthy for 2-2 in the 65th minute, then saw his inswinging cross handled by Southampton substitute Yukinari Sugawara seven minutes from time.

    The Egyptian scored what proved to be the winner from the resulting penalty, and he almost got a hat-trick when he crashed a shot off the base of the post in the 88th minute.

    Southampton remain bottom of the table, five points adrift of 17th-placed Wolves. Liverpool, meanwhile, are sitting pretty ahead of next week’s meeting with Manchester City, who were routed 4-0 by Tottenham on Saturday.

     

    Data Debrief: Salah helps Slot into history books

    Despite a lacklustre defensive performance, Liverpool earned their 10th victory in 12 Premier League games this season (one draw, one defeat), thanks primarily to Salah's quality in attack.

    Salah has become the first Liverpool player to score in five successive Premier League games since the Egyptian himself did so in seven straight matches in October 2021. 

    His penalty, meanwhile, was his 100th goal away from Anfield for the Reds across all competitions.

    Slot has now joined former Chelsea bosses Guus Hiddink and Carlo Ancelotti as the fastest managers to reach 10 Premier League wins upon their arrival in the division.

  • Jaiswal, Kohli tons put India on the verge of win against Australia Jaiswal, Kohli tons put India on the verge of win against Australia

    Yashasvi Jaiswal and Virat Kohli bagged magnificent centuries to put India in a commanding position on day three of their first Test match against Australia in Perth. 

    India declared in a dominant position of 487-6 after Jaiswal (161) built on their 172-0 at stumps on day two and former captain Kohli (100 not out) added quick runs with his first century in 16 months coming up during the final hour. 

    The tourists then wreaked havoc with the ball in five overs before stumps as captain Jasprit Bumrah dismissed debutant Nathan McSweeney (zero) and Marnus Labuschagne (three) before nightwatchman Cummins (two) fell to Mohammed Siraj with the score at 12, as the hosts trail by 521 runs with seven wickets in hand. 

    Earlier in the Test, India had scored 150 batting first before bundling out Australia for 104 in the first innings. 

    Jaiswal resumed his innings at 90 on the third day and brought up his century in the first hour before KL Rahul departed for 77 after an opening-wicket partnership of 201. 

    The centurion fell as India's third wicket at 313-3 as Australia picked up three wickets in the space of eight runs, but Kohli reached his ton with help from Washington Sundar (29) and Nitish Kumar Reddy (38 not out) as India asserted their dominance. 

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