Manchester United have not faced Atletico Madrid in European competition since the 1991-92 Cup Winners' Cup last 16, a tie the Spanish side won 4-1 on aggregate as Luis Aragones got the better of Alex Ferguson.
That was a meeting of two teams on the up: United were a year away from their first of 13 league titles under Ferguson, while Atleti would go on to win consecutive Copas del Rey, with a LaLiga triumph coming in 1996. Twenty years on, Atleti and United meet again in the last 16 of the Champions League, a competition neither is expected to win but one that represents the only means of salvaging their respectively rotten seasons.
It's a difficult one to call. United have become more resolute and less porous under Ralf Rangnick, losing just once over 90 minutes since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was sacked in late November, but in their 15 games under their interim manager, they have not been tested by elite opposition. Atleti, champions last season, are 15 points off the pace set by Real Madrid in 2021-22 and, in the time Rangnick has been at Old Trafford, they have won six and lost eight of 15 matches in all competitions.
These are well-matched, dispirited teams, who occasionally thrill in attack but always unnerve in defence. Neither looks favourite to win, and neither can afford to lose.
It has, therefore, become a big-pressure situation for the goalkeepers – and that's where form starts to differ wildly.
This will be David de Gea's first competitive meeting with Atleti since he left for United in 2011. He probably didn't imagine he would win fewer league titles than his old club in the decade to follow, but that's another story.
De Gea can at least step onto the pitch at the Wanda Metropolitano on Wednesday knowing he can claim to be one of the best in the business again based on form – a claim that opposite number Jan Oblak certainly can't make.
We know United have been extremely vulnerable this season. In all competitions, they have faced 465 shots, the fifth-highest tally among teams in Europe's top five leagues; 168 of those attempts have been on target, the third-highest number a team has faced. What is particularly worrying is that 21 of their opponents' shots have come directly from United mistakes, the highest number on the continent behind Sevilla (23).
Looking at expected goals on target – a way of measuring not just the quality of a chance (xG) but the quality of the attempt itself – United's figure against stands at 51.1 in all competitions, the third-worst among Europe's top five leagues. And yet, they have conceded 44 goals – far more than pretenders to trophies should be letting in, but around seven fewer than the numbers suggest they should. Much of that is down to De Gea.
In the Premier League alone, De Gea has made 96 saves from 128 shots on target faced, giving him a save percentage of 73.44. No other keeper has made as many stops and only Leeds United's Illan Meslier has faced more attempts, yet Meslier has conceded 50 goals to De Gea's 34. Using that same xGOT model and subtracting goals conceded (excluding own goals), we can work out a value for how many goals a keeper has prevented through saves. For De Gea, that figure is 7.1, the best in the league.
If you include all competitions, De Gea has faced the most shots on target (157) among top-five-league teams apart from Leicester City's Kasper Schmeichel (158), again showing just how fragile United can be without the ball. Looking at that 'goals prevented' metric again, De Gea is at 7.86 – in other words, he's prevented roughly eight goals through the quality of his shot-stopping. Across the continent, only two keepers to play at least 15 times this season can do better.
Preventing goals and high save percentages have traditionally been where Oblak thrives. Since his Atleti debut in September 2014, he has the most clean sheets (167) in Europe's top five leagues and a save percentage of 76.5, the third-highest. According to the data, Oblak has prevented just over 51 goals in that time, at least four more than any other keeper and nearly 20 more than De Gea. It makes his form this season all the more troubling.
Oblak has faced 50 fewer shots on target this season than De Gea – implying Atleti's defence is still stronger than United's, even accounting for their dip in standards – yet he has conceded five goals more than the Spain international. Oblak has saved 61, or 57 per cent, of the shots he has faced this season, which is an alarming drop from his career average of 76.52 per cent in Atleti colours.
Using that same 'goals prevented' calculation, Oblak is at -7.05, meaning he has conceded at least seven goals more than should reasonably be expected. Among Europe's top leagues, only seven keepers come off worse this season, and only four by a significant degree.
There is of course more to a keeper's value than the number of times the ball goes in his net, but these numbers give us a good indication of which ones are performing well when it comes to rudimentary shot-stopping. A 15-goal swing between De Gea and Oblak this season tells you everything you need to know about their recent standards, and why Atleti will have more cause for concern than United in this hugely important knockout tie.
Messi hits 800th goal and tells Argentina to milk their moment of World Cup fever
Lionel Messi struck the 800th goal of his remarkable career and lifted the World Cup trophy one more time in Buenos Aires, telling all of Argentina to enjoy this footballing prosperity while it lasts.
His landmark strike came in a 2-0 friendly win against Panama on Thursday at El Monumental, as Argentina played their first game since triumphing at Qatar 2022.
They showed off their World Cup spoils after the final whistle, with Messi addressing the crowd and saying it was a moment he had dreamt of throughout his life.
Messi, who turns 36 in June, delivered another inspired performance for his country, hitting the crossbar with two free kicks before sending another into the top corner in the 89th minute.
That brought up the 800 for club and country and sealed Argentina's win, after Thiago Almada bagged the opener in the 78th minute. It was also Messi's 99th goal for Argentina.
With a microphone in his right hand, and his left placed on the trophy, Messi told the crowd: "I want to thank you for all the love we are receiving, not just for winning the World Cup but from before, when we won the Copa America.
"I always dreamed of this moment, being able to celebrate with you in this country. Let's enjoy it because we spent a long time to win it, and because you don't know how long it will take until we win it again. Let's enjoy the third star."
Paris Saint-Germain's former Barcelona star won the Golden Ball at the World Cup for his efforts in captaining Argentina to glory. That is the trophy awarded to the player of the tournament.
Argentina won the World Cup previously in 1978 and 1986, with a 36-year wait coming to an end when La Albiceleste beat France on penalties in the December 18 final, after a 3-3 draw.
Messi will almost certainly have retired from international duty by the time the next World Cup rolls around in 2026, marking the end of a storied era.
He was keen to spread the latest acclaim throughout the Argentina ranks.
"I know that today is our day, but I don't want to forget all those colleagues I had before, who also did everything possible to get this one, and unfortunately it didn't happen to us, we were very close," he said. "They also deserve respect and recognition.
"We were going to do everything we could for this. I always dreamed of this moment, being able to come to my country and lift the World Cup. It was shown that it is very difficult to achieve this, it depends on many things. Sometimes due to small details it gets away from you.”
Rumour Has It: Bayern Munich turning to Tuchel
Bayern Munich have sensationally sacked Julian Nagelsmann, and Thomas Tuchel is in line to take over.
While not officially confirmed by the German club, widespread reports on Thursday suggested Nagelsmann had been dismissed.
Bayern sit second in the Bundesliga, one point behind Borussia Dortmund, and it is one of their rivals' former coaches who is favourite to replace Nagelsmann.
TOP STORY – TUCHEL SIGNS BAYERN DEAL
According to Fabrizio Romano, Tuchel – who was sacked by Chelsea in September – has already agreed to become Bayern's new coach.
Tuchel's first game would be against his former team Dortmund on April 1.
Bayern face Manchester City in the Champions League quarter-finals. Nagelsmann, meanwhile, is sure to be linked with plenty of high-profile job opportunities.
ROUND UP
- The Sun, citing a Sport Bild report, claim that Eintracht Frankfurt have placed an £88million (€99.7m) price tag on Manchester United target Randal Kolo Muani.
- The father of Brighton and Hove Albion's Alexis Mac Allister has informed ESPN no clubs are in concrete talks with his son, but that there are interested parties.
- According to 90min, Chelsea, Newcastle United and Manchester City are all scouting Juventus winger Samuel Iling-Junior.
- Fabrizio Romano says that Barcelona, Real Madrid and Liverpool are interested in Florian Wirtz, though Bayer Leverkusen are confident of keeping hold of the youngster.
Messi scores 800th career goal – Opta numbers behind the GOAT's latest landmark
Another week, another landmark for Lionel Messi as the Argentina superstar scored his 800th career goal in Thursday's friendly against Panama.
It's been an almighty journey for the all-time great, who has basically won everything on offer and claimed a record haul of seven Ballons d'Or along the way.
The player regarded by many as the greatest ever, Messi reached his latest milestone with a picture-perfect free kick in the 89th minute against Panama, curling one into the top corner after crashing two prior free kicks into the crossbar.
Although Messi hits new landmarks so frequently, at the age of 35 he is approaching a point where such achievements will become a little rarer.
With that in mind, it's worth celebrating Messi and his feats while we still can – therefore, Stats Perform has delved into the Opta data behind his latest accomplishment.
On the receiving end
It's nearly 18 years since Messi's first goal in professional football. Then a floppy-haired 17-year-old, he latched on to a Ronaldinho pass before lifting a clever lob over Albacete goalkeeper Raul Valbuena on May 1, 2005.
That goal has since become famous given its significance in marking the arrival of Messi – it also left a mark on the career of Valbuena.
"The press calls me every time he's broken a record or achieved something important, especially press from Catalonia," he told Marca nine years later. "To me, it's a funny anecdote in my career as a goalkeeper."
Well, it's all right for some. Many goalkeepers have had to contend with Messi smashing past them a few more times than Valbuena's single concession.
In total, 232 goalkeepers had let in a goal against Messi before Thursday. No one conceded more than Diego Alves, however, with the Brazilian beaten 21 times. Iker Casillas is a close second (19).
Returning the favour
Of course, over his career Messi has also become synonymous with creativity, routinely setting up goals for his team-mates.
But, given how many he's scored, he's also had to benefit from plenty of service from his colleagues as well – when he's not doing it all himself.
There are several players with whom he's struck up particularly effective on-pitch relationships.
For years, his combination with Dani Alves was unrivalled, the Brazilian setting up 42 of Messi's goals, but then along came Luis Suarez.
Suarez, Messi and Neymar were a revered and feared front three, their understanding on the pitch so deadly. The Uruguayan ended up assisting 47 goals for Messi across their six years together, with no one else teeing him up more often.
Messi also has his favourite clubs to score against. Impressively, Real Madrid (26) are right up there – but there are four teams he has punished more.
Athletic Bilbao (29), Valencia (31) and Atletico Madrid (32) all struggled against him, but if there has been one team who have resembled lambs to the slaughter when facing Messi, it's Sevilla (38).
Heights few have reached
The world of football numbers can be a little muddy. What constitutes an official goal? What's an official competition?
As such, there has been lots of confusion regarding the 'official' goals hauls of players down the years – we're looking at you, Pele and Romario.
The International Federation of Football History and Statistics (IFFHS) considers Cristiano Ronaldo to be the world record holder, stating in December 2021 that the Portugal forward was the first player to reach 800 official career goals.
This makes Messi the second to reach that figure, with Opta corroborating his career record. There remains a possibility he will eventually reach 1,000. No one is expecting him to get there soon, though.
After all, as good as he remains, achievements like scoring 91 times in a calendar year – as he managed in 2012 – appear to be beyond him these days.
That was his best ever year, which – perhaps unsurprisingly – coincided with his most prolific season (2011-12), when he scored 82 goals.
Still, the 35 goals he plundered in 2022 wasn't a bad return, especially given that haul included seven en route to World Cup success with Argentina.
Still to come?
There aren't many records at Barcelona that don't already belong to Messi. Top scorer? Done. Most appearances? Completed it. The most-photographed person at Camp Nou? Probably.
It seems unlikely Messi will be around at PSG long enough to have the same kind of impact there, but he certainly still has career targets in sight.
There's the aforementioned 1,000 goals landmark, though before then he will have his eyes on more international achievements.
Messi's free kick to seal Thursday's 2-0 win left him just one from reaching 100 with Argentina, and after that he'll perhaps have designs on usurping both Ali Daei (109) and Ronaldo (120), the two highest-scoring players in men's international football.
Similarly, with Ronaldo now out of the way in Saudi Arabia, Messi could also take his record for the most Champions League goals (140) – Messi is on 129.
But regardless of what else he does or doesn't go on to achieve, Thursday's milestone is just another reminder of how fortunate we've been to witness Messi's truly remarkable career.
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