Since Ralf Rangnick took charge at Manchester United, much of the focus on them has revolved around – unsurprisingly – how they press, or don't, for that matter.
Of course, the overriding narrative when he was appointed fixated on how he was the supposed 'godfather of gegenpressing' and would definitely have United pressing more effectively than Liverpool in a matter of weeks…
Okay, there probably weren't many making such grand claims, but the point remains: United's off-the-ball work became the focus.
That meant their rather underwhelming attacking displays went a little unnoticed until Rangnick started talking about their expected goals (xG) after their 1-1 draw with Southampton.
As it turns out, since Rangnick's arrival, United have underperformed their non-penalty xG by 5.5 across all competitions, the worst of any Premier League team in that time. When you do consider spot-kicks, that gap increases to 6.1. Brentford are the second-worst in both metrics (4.31 and 3.67, respectively).
United simply aren't scoring as many goals as they should given the quality of the chances they're creating, but you can spin that into a positive.
Assuming they continue to craft opportunities at a similar rate, they should – in theory – level out with respect to xG. Considering recent meetings with Leeds United and their own woes, could Marcelo Bielsa's men be the tonic they need?
LEEDS LATE TO RIVALRY PARTY
Matches against Man Utd are, in all likelihood, the first games your average Leeds fan will look for when the fixture list is released ahead of the season. While the rivalry may not be as fierce competitively on the pitch as it once was, the two sets of supporters still despise each other.
These rivalry clashes haven't been especially kind to Leeds since their long-awaited return to the Premier League, though.
Over the three games, Leeds haven't won once and trail 11-3 on aggregate, with United demolishing them 6-2 at Old Trafford last season and 5-1 there in August. The 0-0 draw at Elland Road in April last season is as good as it's got – that's also the last time the Red Devils failed to score on the road.
Leeds suffered those two Old Trafford nightmares having previously only conceded five or more goals away to United in all competitions twice in their previous 50 visits.
Further to that, the 6-2 was the first time a Bielsa team had conceded six times in a competition match since he was in charge of Newell's Old Boys in February 1992.
It was also the first occasion United had scored at least six goals since "I'd 8-2 be an Arsenal fan" happened, with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men having netted just three times in their previous six home league games.
Of course, last season's clash at Elland Road was the opposite of a goal fest. The main difference this time is that the game won't be behind closed doors, though Leeds weren't quite this defensively feeble then.
LEAKS UNITED
It is worth mentioning that, indeed, Leeds were not as leaky last season, as has been said. But even when they were in good shape, few would consider them among the tightest teams at the back.
Their 54 concessions in 2020-21 may not have been alarming in itself, with six teams letting in more, but at a rate of 1.4 goals conceded every game they were always likely to find themselves in a little danger if, A) they stopped scoring as often, or B) they didn't improve the defence.
Sure enough, injuries have played a massive part in Leeds' struggles this season, with most of their key players spending at least a short period on the sidelines.
That's been especially felt at the back. While Leeds' goals scored per game remains at a similar – albeit slightly lower – rate (1.5 down from 1.6), their concessions have rocketed from 1.4 every match to 2.0.
Only Norwich City (50) have conceded more Premier League goals than Leeds this season (46), and 26 of those have come in the nine matches since their last clean sheet in November. It's a diabolical run.
Granted, it would appear they have been somewhat unfortunate. Their expected goals against (xGA) (40.4) is 4.6 lower than their goals conceded (excluding own goals) record, suggesting they have on occasion been punished by particularly impressive finishing.
But their xGA remains the third-poorest in the league and, as the graphic above suggests, they've been conceding higher-value chances than they've been creating on average practically all season. That -0.74 differential on their rolling average between non-penalty (np) xG for and xGA heading into the weekend highlights just how much worse they are defensively than they are good going forward at the moment.
THAT ONE'S A KEEPER
An interesting underlying narrative ahead of this clash is the form of the respective goalkeepers.
David de Gea is arguably back to his very best, the Spaniard enjoying a wonderful season after falling out of favour in 2020-21 – it's as though Dean Henderson's emergence as a viable replacement spooked him into pulling his finger out.
Whereas Illan Meslier is – according to the numbers at least – having a very difficult season.
That's not necessarily to say Meslier is entirely to blame. In fact, he's not made any Opta-defined errors leading to shots this term, whereas De Gea has made two. Similarly, as Leeds' xGA shows, they give away a lot of chances and there's only so much a goalkeeper – and a young one at that – can do.
Indeed, Meslier was considered one of few positives from Leeds' recent 3-0 battering by Everton, yet the numbers don't make for such kind reading.
According to Opta's 'goals prevented' metric, Meslier should have stopped as many as 7.3 of the goals he has conceded this season, by far the worst record in the league (Vicente Guaita: 5.1). De Gea, on the other hand, has apparently been the most decisive keeper, actively preventing 6.9 goals and making a division-high 92 saves.
Meslier is ranked second for saves (80), but it would also seem he has let in several goals the average keeper might've been expected to keep out.
Intriguingly, United's rolling average in terms of np-xG for and xGA has their current differential as the exact inverse of that of Leeds, with Rangnick's side enjoying a positive 0.74 difference in favour of xG for, meaning they are creating better chances than they concede and are seemingly at their most cohesive in attack all season.
It's by far the biggest rolling average gap United have seen this term – at least in favour of xG for – and the 2-0 win over Brighton and Hove Albion in midweek looked like another step towards being a more ruthless attacking unit.
Creating chances hasn't really been a problem in recent weeks, the issue has been finishing them off. While rivalry meetings can be unpredictable, and a full house at Elland Road should at least ensure the hosts have a vocal backing, it wouldn't be in the least bit surprising if Leeds are proven to be the cannon fodder United need.
Man Utd matchwinner Fernandes: Criticism part of the job
Bruno Fernandes said Manchester United's players cannot afford to get annoyed by outside criticism, after he scored twice to fire the Red Devils to a much-needed win over Sheffield United.
Erik ten Hag's team were roundly criticised for their performance in Sunday's FA Cup semi-final against Coventry City, as they surrendered a 3-0 lead to draw 3-3 before inching through in a penalty shoot-out.
They had also gone four Premier League games without a win (three draws, one defeat) prior to Wednesday's meeting with the rock-bottom Blades, with their hopes of Champions League football all-but over.
They twice trailed as Sheffield United threatened a huge upset, but Fernandes scored twice and supplied an assist as they fought back to claim a 4-2 win.
Asked whether the noise around Sunday's semi-final win had affected the mood at Old Trafford, Fernandes told Sky Sports: "That's part of the job.
"You can be in a run of games where you win eight or nine in a row, and when you lose one you know you'll be criticised.
"Being at Manchester United demands winning every game, so it's part of the job. If there is anyone in the dressing room still not used to that, they will get used to it!
"Being a Manchester United player demands being ready to receive as much criticism as praise. We receive praise when we do good things so we can't be annoyed by the criticism.
"When people want to do that, they might have a point. We can think in a different way, but we have to take it in the same way as we take the credit they give us."
Ten Hag's team did look disjointed for long periods on Wednesday, though, and they have now conceded 50 Premier League goals this season.
The Red Devils have now shipped a half-century of goals in two of their last three Premier League campaigns, having done so just once in their previous 29.
Ten Hag, though, was content with most aspects of their performance, saying: "It was a good game for the crowd, they saw four goals and many chances that we created.
"I think we played quite well, we created many more chances, so there's many positives. But also negatives. Conceding two goals from giveaways, that's unacceptable.
"We want to play dynamic, attacking football. That is what we want to see. Since the winter we have created lots of chances and also scored a lot of those chances."
Premier League record falls as 2023-24 becomes most goal-laden 20-team season
The current Premier League season has become the most goal-laden 20-team campaign in the competition's history, with Harry Maguire the unlikely man to seal 2023-24's place in history.
Maguire scored Manchester United's first equaliser as they twice fought from behind to clinch a 4-2 win over Sheffield United on Wednesday, with Bruno Fernandes netting twice in the second half.
The centre-back's 42nd-minute header was a significant moment, representing the 1,085th goal scored in the Premier League this term.
That is the most ever scored in a season containing 20 teams, since 1995-96.
The 2022-23 season saw 1,084 goals scored, a tally that was reached on the final day to surpass the previous 20-team record of 1,072, set in 2018-19.
It was somewhat fitting for the record-breaking goal to be conceded by Sheffield United, who have certainly played their part in making 2023-24 the most goal-laden season to date.
The Blades have now shipped 92 goals this term, the most ever conceded in a 38-game Premier League campaign.
With four games to come, including a rematch with a Newcastle United team that thrashed them 8-0 earlier this campaign, the prospect of Chris Wilder's men bringing up triple figures is a realistic one.
Manchester United 4-2 Sheffield United: Fernandes double helps Red Devils to comeback win
Bruno Fernandes produced a decisive double as Manchester United twice came from behind for a 4-2 win over Sheffield United at Old Trafford, easing the pressure on under-fire boss Erik ten Hag.
Ten Hag received fierce criticism after his team surrendered a 3-0 lead in Sunday's FA Cup semi-final against Coventry City, who they beat on penalties after a 3-3 draw.
His team trailed twice on Wednesday, with Jayden Bogle punishing Andre Onana's error to score and Ben Brereton Diaz prodding home the Blades' second, either side of Harry Maguire equalising.
However, Fernandes equalised from the spot in the second half before teeing up Rasmus Hojliund's late finish after another great strike from the Red Devils captain sent his side 3-2 up.
The win takes Ten Hag's side above Newcastle United and into the top six with 53 points, while bottom club Sheffield United stay 10 points adrift of safety.
Just 28 seconds had been played when Diogo Dalot worked Wes Foderingham from range, but if the hosts thought that effort would precipitate an assault on the Blades' goal, they were mistaken.
Alejandro Garnacho was denied by Foderingham after a mazy run, but the Red Devils were largely uninspired as the visitors sat back.
They gifted Sheffield United the lead after 35 minutes as Onana passed straight to Bogle, who side-footed home at the near post.
That sparked Ten Hag's team into life, though, and they were level within seven minutes as Maguire glanced Garnacho's cross home.
Foderingham denied Garnacho with a fine stop on the stroke of half-time, and Sheffield United made that reprieve count within five minutes of the restart, Brereton Diaz pouncing to prod Ben Osborn's cross home.
Yet Chris Wilder's visitors again failed to hold on as Auston Trusty wrestled Maguire to the ground from a corner, allowing Fernandes to blast into the top-left corner from the spot.
Fernandes then blasted home from 25 yards out to send Ten Hag's hosts ahead for the first time, and the midfielder was not done there, teeing up Hojlund to make the points safe with a pinpoint cross from the right.
Fernandes rescues Red Devils
Ahead of Wednesday's game, Manchester United had only won one of their last seven Premier League matches (three draws, three defeats), going winless through the last four of those (three draws, one defeat) – their worst such streak since 2019.
They twice looked on course for a humiliating defeat, but Fernandes led from the front to down the Blades and boost his team's hopes of salvaging Europa League qualification.
He has now scored seven goals in his last six Premier League appearances, netting on each of his last four outings. This is just the second time he has enjoyed a four-match scoring streak with the Red Devils in the competition, having done so under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in February 2021.
Blades on the brink
While Sheffield United can take heart from their performance at Old Trafford, the result does nothing for their slim hopes of remaining among England's elite.
Wilder's men are 10 points from safety with just 12 to play for this season and will be relegated to the Championship if they lose to Newcastle United on Saturday.
The Blades could even see their fate confirmed this weekend with a victory, depending on Nottingham Forest's result against Manchester City on Sunday.
They have now conceded 92 goals in 34 Premier League matches this term, the most ever conceded in a 38-game season in the competition.
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