Since Ralf Rangnick took charge at Manchester United, much of the focus on them has revolved around – unsurprisingly – how they press, or don't, for that matter.
Of course, the overriding narrative when he was appointed fixated on how he was the supposed 'godfather of gegenpressing' and would definitely have United pressing more effectively than Liverpool in a matter of weeks…
Okay, there probably weren't many making such grand claims, but the point remains: United's off-the-ball work became the focus.
That meant their rather underwhelming attacking displays went a little unnoticed until Rangnick started talking about their expected goals (xG) after their 1-1 draw with Southampton.
As it turns out, since Rangnick's arrival, United have underperformed their non-penalty xG by 5.5 across all competitions, the worst of any Premier League team in that time. When you do consider spot-kicks, that gap increases to 6.1. Brentford are the second-worst in both metrics (4.31 and 3.67, respectively).
United simply aren't scoring as many goals as they should given the quality of the chances they're creating, but you can spin that into a positive.
Assuming they continue to craft opportunities at a similar rate, they should – in theory – level out with respect to xG. Considering recent meetings with Leeds United and their own woes, could Marcelo Bielsa's men be the tonic they need?
LEEDS LATE TO RIVALRY PARTY
Matches against Man Utd are, in all likelihood, the first games your average Leeds fan will look for when the fixture list is released ahead of the season. While the rivalry may not be as fierce competitively on the pitch as it once was, the two sets of supporters still despise each other.
These rivalry clashes haven't been especially kind to Leeds since their long-awaited return to the Premier League, though.
Over the three games, Leeds haven't won once and trail 11-3 on aggregate, with United demolishing them 6-2 at Old Trafford last season and 5-1 there in August. The 0-0 draw at Elland Road in April last season is as good as it's got – that's also the last time the Red Devils failed to score on the road.
Leeds suffered those two Old Trafford nightmares having previously only conceded five or more goals away to United in all competitions twice in their previous 50 visits.
Further to that, the 6-2 was the first time a Bielsa team had conceded six times in a competition match since he was in charge of Newell's Old Boys in February 1992.
It was also the first occasion United had scored at least six goals since "I'd 8-2 be an Arsenal fan" happened, with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men having netted just three times in their previous six home league games.
Of course, last season's clash at Elland Road was the opposite of a goal fest. The main difference this time is that the game won't be behind closed doors, though Leeds weren't quite this defensively feeble then.
LEAKS UNITED
It is worth mentioning that, indeed, Leeds were not as leaky last season, as has been said. But even when they were in good shape, few would consider them among the tightest teams at the back.
Their 54 concessions in 2020-21 may not have been alarming in itself, with six teams letting in more, but at a rate of 1.4 goals conceded every game they were always likely to find themselves in a little danger if, A) they stopped scoring as often, or B) they didn't improve the defence.
Sure enough, injuries have played a massive part in Leeds' struggles this season, with most of their key players spending at least a short period on the sidelines.
That's been especially felt at the back. While Leeds' goals scored per game remains at a similar – albeit slightly lower – rate (1.5 down from 1.6), their concessions have rocketed from 1.4 every match to 2.0.
Only Norwich City (50) have conceded more Premier League goals than Leeds this season (46), and 26 of those have come in the nine matches since their last clean sheet in November. It's a diabolical run.
Granted, it would appear they have been somewhat unfortunate. Their expected goals against (xGA) (40.4) is 4.6 lower than their goals conceded (excluding own goals) record, suggesting they have on occasion been punished by particularly impressive finishing.
But their xGA remains the third-poorest in the league and, as the graphic above suggests, they've been conceding higher-value chances than they've been creating on average practically all season. That -0.74 differential on their rolling average between non-penalty (np) xG for and xGA heading into the weekend highlights just how much worse they are defensively than they are good going forward at the moment.
THAT ONE'S A KEEPER
An interesting underlying narrative ahead of this clash is the form of the respective goalkeepers.
David de Gea is arguably back to his very best, the Spaniard enjoying a wonderful season after falling out of favour in 2020-21 – it's as though Dean Henderson's emergence as a viable replacement spooked him into pulling his finger out.
Whereas Illan Meslier is – according to the numbers at least – having a very difficult season.
That's not necessarily to say Meslier is entirely to blame. In fact, he's not made any Opta-defined errors leading to shots this term, whereas De Gea has made two. Similarly, as Leeds' xGA shows, they give away a lot of chances and there's only so much a goalkeeper – and a young one at that – can do.
Indeed, Meslier was considered one of few positives from Leeds' recent 3-0 battering by Everton, yet the numbers don't make for such kind reading.
According to Opta's 'goals prevented' metric, Meslier should have stopped as many as 7.3 of the goals he has conceded this season, by far the worst record in the league (Vicente Guaita: 5.1). De Gea, on the other hand, has apparently been the most decisive keeper, actively preventing 6.9 goals and making a division-high 92 saves.
Meslier is ranked second for saves (80), but it would also seem he has let in several goals the average keeper might've been expected to keep out.
Intriguingly, United's rolling average in terms of np-xG for and xGA has their current differential as the exact inverse of that of Leeds, with Rangnick's side enjoying a positive 0.74 difference in favour of xG for, meaning they are creating better chances than they concede and are seemingly at their most cohesive in attack all season.
It's by far the biggest rolling average gap United have seen this term – at least in favour of xG for – and the 2-0 win over Brighton and Hove Albion in midweek looked like another step towards being a more ruthless attacking unit.
Creating chances hasn't really been a problem in recent weeks, the issue has been finishing them off. While rivalry meetings can be unpredictable, and a full house at Elland Road should at least ensure the hosts have a vocal backing, it wouldn't be in the least bit surprising if Leeds are proven to be the cannon fodder United need.
Gravenberch ready to show off Liverpool form ‘to the world’, says Gakpo
Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo expressed his pride in seeing compatriot Ryan Gravenberch show off his qualities ‘to the whole world’ after a fine start to the Premier League season.
Though the Netherlands pair did not become teammates at Liverpool until late summer of 2023, Gakpo knew well Gravenberch’s talents from their respective Eredivisie spells with PSV Eindhoven and Ajax.
Now in his second season at Anfield, Gravenberch has drawn widespread plaudits for his form in a new deeper-lying midfield role under new head coach Arne Slot, having largely been used as a substitute under Jurgen Klopp.
Gravenberch is the only midfielder in Europe's big-five leagues to both make 30+ tackles (30) and 30+ interceptions (33) in all competitions this season, and Gakpo insisted that his Netherlands team-mate can continue to go from strength to strength, starting against Southampton this Sunday.
“We [the Dutchmen at Liverpool] knew Ryan already from the Eredivisie when he played at Ajax, and I think everybody knew already that he is this good,” Gakpo recently told Men in Blazers.
“After that, he made a move to Bayern Munich, and maybe he didn’t play that much over there, but still everybody in Holland knew how good he could be when he was playing.
“And I think maybe the manager [Slot] also knew this. At the beginning of the season, he put him in a slightly different position, but he gave him the confidence to play there.
“Ryan showed his quality in that position, grabbed his chance as well and turned out to be a good match. He is playing outstandingly for us this season.
“I’m very happy that we can see Ryan, as we Dutchmen already knew, but now he can show it to the whole world. I’m very proud of him.”
Southampton, meanwhile, welcome the Reds to St. Mary’s on the back of a 2-0 defeat to Wolves ahead of the international break, leaving them bottom of the table after 11 games of the season.
The Saints are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season (seven), while only Crystal Palace (5.1%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Russell Martin’s side (6.2%). Just 30.1% of Southampton’s shots have been on target this term (34/113), a league-low ratio.
However, the Southampton head coach is relishing the opportunity of facing Liverpool, with his players performing well against the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City already this term.
"I'm really excited about Sunday. We're playing the best team in the country at the moment, on their current form and what they have been doing with their manager, built on an incredible foundation from the previous manager, so I'm really looking forward to it,” Martin said.
"I think we showed the guys the Premier League table last season and how much it changed by the end and by the end of December. But it's honestly such an exciting month.
"People talk about the difficulty of the game and every competition we face in the next four or five games, but it's what we all worked so hard for. We should be excited about the challenge.
“I think teams have shown in the last few weeks that you can pick up big results against big teams, good opposition, and we are going to have to. Our level of performance against teams at the top end of the table has been good on the whole."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Southampton – Mateus Fernandes
Fernandes has become a mainstay in the Southampton team, starting the last eight Premier League games in a row, and has been one of Martin’s standout performers in a lacklustre start to the campaign.
In the Saints’ 2-0 defeat to Wolves last time out, the Portuguese contributed a team-high expected goals (xG) tally of 0.22 from his three shots, while only Yukinari Sugawara (10) and Flynn Downes (12) have created more chances in the top-flight than Fernandes (eight) this season.
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah has both scored and assisted in the same match 35 times in the Premier League (including four already this term), just one shy of Wayne Rooney’s record of 36 games with both a goal and an assist in the competition. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 11 goals (seven goals, four assists) in 11 Premier League appearances against Southampton.
He has also been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21 – eight goals, six assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. Indeed, only Matt Le Tissier for Southampton in 1993-94 (69% - 34/49) has scored or assisted a higher proportion of a side’s goals in a single season in the competition.
MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN
Liverpool have won nine of their 11 Premier League games under new head coach Slot (D1 L1). A win over Southampton will see the Dutchman become the joint-fastest manager to reach 10 wins from the start of a Premier League career (12 games), alongside Guus Hiddink in May 2009 and Carlo Ancelotti in November 2009 (both with Chelsea).
The Reds’ last Premier League game against the Saints was a 4-4 away draw in May 2023 – they conceded as many goals in that game as they had in their previous six visits to St Mary’s combined.
Southampton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L10), a 1-0 home victory in January 2021.
This will also be the first Premier League match between the side starting the day bottom of the table and the side starting the day top since April 2023, and Southampton’s 3-3 draw away to Arsenal. The league leaders are unbeaten in 14 such matches (W12 D2) since Wolves won 2-1 against Manchester United in February 2011.
However, Southampton have only lost one of their last eight Premier League home games against sides starting the day at the summit (W2 D5) and are unbeaten in their last four (W2 D2 – including a 1-0 win over Liverpool in January 2021) since a 0-1 defeat to Man City in May 2018.
But Martin’s side have lost nine of their 11 Premier League games this season (W1 D1). Only seven sides in English top-flight history have reached 10 defeats in 12 or fewer matches from the start of a campaign, with all seven going on to be relegated.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Southampton – 9.7%
Draw – 12.6%
Liverpool – 77.7%
Taylor proud of 'gritty' Man City display in Hammarby victory
Gareth Taylor was pleased with how his Manchester City players handled the atmosphere against Hammarby to secure their passage into the Champions League quarter-finals.
Khadija Shaw opened the scoring in the 31st minute before Ellen Wangerheim restored parity shortly after the interval with a finish from close range.
But Shaw continued her fine start to the campaign, scoring the winner to become City's all-time top scorer in the competition, surpassing Georgia Stanway and Janine Beckie (both six).
The result saw City make it to the last eight of the competition for the first time since 2021, though the encounter was far from comfortable at the Tele2 Arena on Thursday.
Hammarby ended the contest with an expected goals (xG) total of 2.15 compared to the visitors' 1.07, despite both sides having 14 shots throughout the match.
However, City maintained their unbeaten record against Swedish sides in the competitor (W6), and Taylor was proud of his side's "gritty" display in Stockholm.
“I’m really pleased. It was about qualification for us tonight," Taylor said.
"There were a couple of ways we could do it. Obviously, we knew a point was enough, but I don’t think the players were thinking that way.
“It was a really gritty performance on a really difficult on this pitch. It probably doesn’t look like that for the viewers at home watching it.
"But it was a really lively surface and we worked so hard.
“I felt there were some areas we could control the play better. I have to give credit to Hammarby, they were really aggressive.
"The referee was on our side a little bit in the first half and maybe not in the second.
“I’m really pleased and proud of the players, they really dug in tonight. You come away from a hostile environment with a win.”
McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United
Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.
United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.
While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.
That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.
McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.
"Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.
"It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."
Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.
Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off.
"I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea.
"You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that.
"We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Ipswich Town - Liam Delap
Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.
That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).
Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho
Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).
The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).
MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN
Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.
The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.
United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.
The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.
However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Ipswich Town - 22.2%
Draw - 23%
Manchester United - 54.8%
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